diamond1924 Posted May 22, 2009 Share Posted May 22, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) make it 9 class permanent, form temporary Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 23, 2009 Author Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers for all the support:ok Don't worry though, I'm changing nothing. I know it will come good at some point, just hope it's soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Give up Russ!!;) sorry had to post something different!! All i know is that when you hit one, we will al know about it!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gingertipster Posted May 23, 2009 Share Posted May 23, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Russ, Have you taken a break and looked at your bets? Sometimes when I do this I can see something I am doing differently. Though your analysis is as sound as ever, as far as I can see. Everyone has losing runs and am sure it will change. Mark Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 25, 2009 Author Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Thanks guys:ok Ok, so plenty of meetings to choose from but just the one bet, although there is another that is still under consideration. 2.55 Carlisle Still paying 4 places for this 17 runner, Class 5 handicap over 6f. The first 7 currently in the betting occupy 7 of the top 8 stalls and its with those that I will be concentrating. Sea Rover is favourite on the basis on 1 run only and I question its ability to reproduce that effort so this is a fav worth taking on. Tangerine Trees is a consistent sort but may struggle to get its head in front off a similar mark as many of its recent runs. This leads us to the bet in: Mey Blossom (10/1 Corals) - Top weight here today but capable of defying that burden today. Races off a career low mark and is dropped into Class 5 company in search of its first win in 12 months. Only last term, this horse was racing off a mark in the low 90's and has been tried in Group company so this significant drop in mark and grade make this horse a welcome betting proposition. Trip will be fine, although all its winning has been over 5f, but has been campaigned over 7f recently so this drop will suit. Doesn't seem to enjoy extremes of going and all its best runs have been on genuine good ground which it faces today. 2 runs this term have been encouraging, without being spectacular, and they should have put this horse spot on now dropped into 0-70 company for this first time. Interesting jockey booking too for this run who is 2 from 2 at the track. Taking a valuable 5lb off, this could well make all the difference. Has a decent draw, trip & going will suit and should make its presence felt here at decent EW odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted May 25, 2009 Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good luck mate, let's hope this is the one which starts the run ;). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 25, 2009 Author Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good luck mate' date=' let's hope this is the one which starts the run ;).[/quote'] Not quite mate but 4th lands the place money:ok Never really got into contention but a decent run and well backed into 13/2. It's a welcome profit after the debacle of the other day:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted May 25, 2009 Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Not quite mate but 4th lands the place money:ok Never really got into contention but a decent run and well backed into 13/2. It's a welcome profit after the debacle of the other day:ok Profit is profit mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 25, 2009 Author Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Updated stats after today: 2009 Staked = 370.00pts Returned = 399.46pts Profit = +29.46pts Yield = +8.0% Bets = 37 Winners = 2 (5.4% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 14 (37.8% s/r) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 25, 2009 Author Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Just the 1 bet for Tuesday too: 4.30 Leicester 11 runners for a Class 5, 0-75 handicap over the minimum trip. Despite the smallish field, it's still 5/1 the field which indicates there is no stand out performer. In a bid to seek out a bigger price, I'm siding with the chances of: Espy (12/1 Bet365 BOG) - I think this is a big price for a horse that has some excellent form early on last season. Was off for almost a year since it broke its nose and shown nothing on 3 runs this term. That, however, has only served to bring its mark down to a winning one. Looking at the positives, the return to 5f is a massive plus as is the drop in grade and 3lb easing in the weights. Add to this the jockey booking who is 2 from 3 on the horse, there are plenty of reasons to back this horse. Has 6 handicaps under its relatively unexposed belt and form reads well, won fto in handicap on the AW at Kempton off a mark of 71 in Class 4, trotting up by over 3L. Followed that with a win off 77 in Class 5 before finishing 4th in Class 4 off 81, with change of jockey. Was then off for a year before returning this term with 3 consecutive 7th place finishes. Each of those runs was over 6f, a trip too far IMO and off marks of 81,81 & 77. Of interest too is the positive comments coming from the trainer who said "The problem is that he banged his head and broke his nose when he had been in the stalls a long time at Newbury last year. It took time for him to get over that and right now he's looking and moving as well as he's ever done. He runs back over five at Leicester on May 26, it's back to basics and I hope it works out - handles any ground." With conditions suiting the horse and fitness no issue, I'm happy to take the EW available on this animal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 25, 2009 Share Posted May 25, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) might hear something about this Russ as i know someone who knows the owner. Depends if i can get hold of him or not. What i do know is that they havent had a go yet, so if the market speaks, some of these guys have a bit on so we should know by following the market. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB1979 Posted May 26, 2009 Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Corals 14/1 Espy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted May 26, 2009 Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) What i do know is that they havent had a go yet, so if the market speaks, some of these guys have a bit on so we should know by following the market. :ok Good advice there I think, bowles. The price suggested the connections didn't fancy it. The way it ran suggested they were right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 26, 2009 Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good advice there I think, bowles. The price suggested the connections didn't fancy it. The way it ran suggested they were right. I didnt get hold of the guy but as i said the market will speak when they fancy it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 26, 2009 Author Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Unfortunately, I don't have connections in the business so have to trust my own instinct. Ran an average race, finished midfield but I'm not sure the jockey put it in for max effort....wouldn't have altered the outcome but could have got it a little closer, I feel. Anyway, going to take stock of where I am & what I feel I need to do so no bets for tomorrow. After a thorough & detailed review, I will be back on Thursday with a bet or 2.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted May 26, 2009 Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Unfortunately, I don't have connections in the business so have to trust my own instinct. Ran an average race, finished midfield but I'm not sure the jockey put it in for max effort....wouldn't have altered the outcome but could have got it a little closer, I feel. thats what we have to do Russ, i didnt really want to point out the fact that i had links to the owners but thought it may help as any money would be significant. Kirk normally tells them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 26, 2009 Author Share Posted May 26, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) thats what we have to do Russ' date=' i didnt really want to point out the fact that i had links to the owners but thought it may help as any money would be significant. Kirk normally tells them.[/quote'] No worries Rob:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 27, 2009 Author Share Posted May 27, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Having taken stock, I have decided to concentrate on handicaps over distances of 1m upwards. This is probably where form stands up more so let's hope I can get back on track, starting tomorrow with: 5.10 Yarmouth Class 6 handicap over almost 1m3f with 12 going to post. Granary Girl looks a worthy fav, but up in mark again may struggle to win again. General Tufto is another that may not cope with the higher mark. I'm opposing them both with a horse that ran creditably against General Tufto 3 weeks ago and is now 6lb better off for just over 2L in: Dragon Slayer (RPF 9/1) - As just said, weighted to turn the tables with General Tufto today and at a much bigger price. This horse is the only course winner in the line up, a positive, whilst it comes here off a career low mark. Actually has a decent strike rate on turf of 20% and has won off 77 in its heyday, races off just 61 today. Is also dropped in class to Grade 6 and that, coupled with its mark and course form, could be the key. Won twice last term so still retains ability. Ran poorly fto this term, as is normal with this horse, but has gradually improved since with a 7th at Yarmouth off 67 and a 5th off 64 lto. Stays on well in its races and the step up in trip should suit today. Goes on all types of ground too and the re-application of headgear looks to be a plus so a big run is expected against some very mediocre opposition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 28, 2009 Share Posted May 28, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Dragon Slayer (RPF 9/1) 12/1 at Sportingbet Russ, best I can see, only 8's at Billys! Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted May 28, 2009 Share Posted May 28, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Placed again, another small profit :clap The winners will be along soon enough :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 28, 2009 Author Share Posted May 28, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) For thread purposes, a nice 3rd at 17/2. Was available at 12's early doors but I couldn't get onto PL to post the price:ok A much better day for me as I posted a winner in the Sandown thread too at 12's but didn't post in here for some reason:wall Hope that the switch to races upwards of 1m will pay dividends Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 30, 2009 Author Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Looks a really good days racing today and 3 take my fancy: 2.50 Goodwood 13 runners here for a Class 3 handicap over 1m4f. The fav is sure to be Crackentorp and it does hold some fancy entries but, on form alone and its reappearance, can be opposed at the price. Red Merlin is also a big danger but is gradually approaching a mark which may be beyond him so preference is for: Dona Alba (13/2 BlueSq) - Has top weight here but there is plenty in its favour. Firstly trainer form both recently and at the track is a huge plus, plus a jockey in form. Draw is ok too whilst the step up in trip is expected to suit this horse. Still a lightly raced horse with only 9 races under its belt but some decent form amongst it. Loves undulating tracks so course is another plus. If we ignore its poor run lto when I'm not sure the race was run to suit, it should be well in the mix, especially on the basis of a cracking run at Epsom finishing 3rd to Listed winner, Duncan. Clearly well thought of looking at some of the races it has contested, I expect a bounce back to form here off a winnable mark and in the right grade. Looks a super EW bet to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 30, 2009 Author Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2nd one is now a NR, it was to be Ermine Grey in the 5.50.:sad 3rd bet will go up later as it goes in one of the evening meets:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted May 30, 2009 Author Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 7.20 Newbury Sorry it's late posting so apologies for the very brief write up. With 3 NR's, 10 left for this Class 4 handicap over 1m. I'm opposing Supaverdi as its such a short price so I'm on: La Coveta (12/1 Betfred) - Goes well here and now back on last winning mark. Trip suits, stable going ok and still showing bits of form. Has won and finished half a length 4th here, the 2nd of those runs off 80 in a Class 2. A repeat of either of those runs will see the horse go close tonight at a massive price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JB1979 Posted May 30, 2009 Share Posted May 30, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) La Coveta available @18.5 win market betfair and @4.4 place market Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 18, 2009 Author Share Posted June 18, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Had a bit of a break but back now, hopefully with more luck, with a couple of runners: 5.05 Redcar 12 runners lining up for a Class 5 handicap over the straight mile. Aussie Blue is a deserved fav but no way can I back this horse at its current price. Won easily lto but far from certain to follow up with a 6lb penalty. Had no weight lto and that certainly helped, a different proposition today without doubt. Efidium is getting a bit long in the tooth, it will run its race but fancy it won't be good enough. King Pin was unlucky lto but is a horse raised in the handicap despite not winning, these types are generally worth taking on. So, it leads me to the selection in: Minority Report (RPF 13/2) - Won't be able to get on to post a price but anything of 8's or above should be taken. Running for Dandy Nicholls and races off top weight with 10st to carry but is capable of defying that burden in this company. Needs a stronger gallop that it got lto and should get it in this bigger field. Massive pointer is the drop of 2 grades and an easing of 2lb in the handicap. Won off 77 last term and off 74 today, so mark isn't beyond this horse. Since that run, ran a cracker on its reappearance at Donny off 80 before a few average efforts. However, in that time, has raced in Class 3, off marks too high yet Topspeed figures still stand up. Ground looks ideal, and in a weakish event, this horse could easily land the spoils. 5.30 Royal Ascot 29 for the Buckingham, Class 2 Heritage handicap over the straight 7f. 10/1 the field so anything could win this and, the PL gamble Mister Hardy is not without a chance with the very useful Freddy Tylicki on top. Dhaular Dhar, the PL horse, is another with a good chance and will run its race. However, I look for 3 things in this race - lowish draw, course form and a winning mark and one stands out at a price for me in: Golden Desert (25/1 Bet365 BOG) - Looks to have been laid out for this and I'm sweet on its chances. Is drawn ok in 12 so the draw is no issue, races off a good mark and is proven at the track. Races off a 5lb higher mark than its last win but has run creditably since off higher so no problems there. Jockey is 1 from 2 on the horse and finished a close 5th in the other race. Ascot C&D form is very encouraging, winning a Class 3 20 runners ladies handicap readily last summer and following that with a 5th of 29 in a £93K handicap (winning its side of the track by 2L, 1st of 15 in that group). Has only raced once this term, at Newmarket, a course which doesn't suit but ran ok and eased 1lb from that run. Stable is amongst winners, good jockey and sound claims having 'won' both its starts over C&D (if you break its last race in 2 - each side of the track). Should be a lot shorter than 25's and well worth some EW investment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 21, 2009 Author Share Posted June 21, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 4.30 Wolverhampton Sorry, no time for a big write up but: Great Knight - Bottom weight and major chance here. Ideal conditions, being 6f here but has wide draw. In honesty, I think that could be an advantage as jockey won't have to make too much use of the horse early on. The way it won its last race over 6f here gives it a major chance and the price is well worth being on EW. Available at 9's on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 4.30 Wolverhampton Sorry, no time for a big write up but: Great Knight - Bottom weight and major chance here. Ideal conditions, being 6f here but has wide draw. In honesty, I think that could be an advantage as jockey won't have to make too much use of the horse early on. The way it won its last race over 6f here gives it a major chance and the price is well worth being on EW. Available at 9's on Betfair. :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap Backed it @9.4 it drifted to 12's so backed it again Class Class :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted June 22, 2009 Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Yes nice one Russ. Ran a cracker LTO to get so close after chasing the breakneck gallop. I went triple handed in this to be honest though. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 22, 2009 Author Share Posted June 22, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 4.30 Wolverhampton Sorry, no time for a big write up but: Great Knight - Bottom weight and major chance here. Ideal conditions, being 6f here but has wide draw. In honesty, I think that could be an advantage as jockey won't have to make too much use of the horse early on. The way it won its last race over 6f here gives it a major chance and the price is well worth being on EW. Available at 9's on Betfair. Cheers guys. Jeez, how I needed that:lol First winner for ages. Won well too at a juicy 9/1. Hope this is the start of things to come:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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