RussP Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Back with 1 today, hoping for a change in fortunes: 2.05 Epsom 11 runners face the starter for this 1m2f, Class 3 handicap at Epsom. 5/1 the field meaning plenty of EW possibilities and I am really unsure about the market leaders in this, preferring to chance my arm with: Bound By Honour (14/1 William Hill BOG) - Looked a very decent performer in both Dubai & South Africa but has not really shone since in the UK. However, there are definite reasons for that. Was off the track for 6 months before racing in this country, finishing down the field in a good race at York off 97. Then an improved run when 4th at Goodwood, a track most similar to this, off 94 when never getting the run of the race. Would almost certainly have finished closer. Last run was a midfield effort at Newbury but that looked a top race and the exaggerated hold up tactics probably didn't suit. Today, the horse is dropped in class, dropped 3lb in the handicap and has a useful 5lb claimer on board. At a price, all is not lost and I'm happy to take the EW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted October 10, 2009 Author Share Posted October 10, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
devil tish Posted October 10, 2009 Share Posted October 10, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) best of luck russ, great writeup:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted October 10, 2009 Author Share Posted October 10, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) best of luck russ' date=' great writeup:ok[/quote'] Cheers mate but didn't get any in the 3. Bloody rubbish:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Now at -2.08pts for the season. Following 2 profitable seasons, it's been an absolute disaster:sad Will keep plugging away though and see what happens. May have one later today before having a week away.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Russ, youve said a few times that your time this year has been taken up with the family and other stuff (and quite rightly so) it only goes to show that if you take your eye off this game for any time at all it jumps up and grabs you by the knackers. Overall its not that bad, many punters would be glad of anything near level profits:ok Not sure what my excuse is though:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 1.50 Doncaster There are currently 12 runners for this Class 4 handicap over 1m2f on good/soft ground. Just 4 of these are trading in single figures and I've found reasons, I believe, to oppose them all. Starla Dancer, from the Fahey yard, is almost certain to go off favourite having won lto and will probably like the ground but that was only its 2nd start in handicap having failed to win in 7 maidens, is raised 6lb and tackles older horses for the first time. Will give its running but price is way too short. Veiled Applause goes well here but failed to win lto after no change in mark despite win previous effort. Therefore, it's hard to envisage a 5lb hike in the weights not being enough to stop this one, especially in what looks like a tougher event. Nevada Desert has shown little this term until the AW brought a return to form. The switch back to turf and a higher mark is a negative. Baltimore Jack has been in cracking form but this is a step up in mark, rise in grade and ground seems to have gone against this one. All this leads me on to my fancy, which is: Admiral Dundas (12/1 Bet365 BOG) - Well drawn in 3 and perfect ground to make its bid here. This one has a nice strike rate with 3 wins, 2 2nds from just 15 runs and has the assistance of the excellent and vastly underrated Joe Fanning on top, which has partnered this one 3 times, winning twice. Won a decent claimer 3 starts ago, under this jockey, before being hampered on the AW off 81 and then finding the gallop much too slow on very soft ground at Salisbury lto. Eased a further 1lb from that run to just 77 and with the good/soft (good in places) ground today, should find conditions more to its liking. Looks overpriced, especially with question marks over its rivals, and I certain believe it will go close in this company. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Russ, youve said a few times that your time this year has been taken up with the family and other stuff (and quite rightly so) it only goes to show that if you take your eye off this game for any time at all it jumps up and grabs you by the knackers. Overall its not that bad, many punters would be glad of anything near level profits:ok Thanks Graham. I completely agree with you. What I've been doing though is looking for other excuses and trying to reinvent the wheel. Gone back to basics for today and hopefully I can see a turn of luck. What you say is spot on....you cannot get complacent. Put the effort in, reap the rewards. (regarding your efforts....now the jumps are here, we will see big priced novice and handicap winners all over the place;)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Poor effort from Admiral Dundas. Also got it wrong with the market principals with Nevada Desert (drifted alarmingly in the betting) just getting the better of the warm favourite, Starla Dancer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) I'm going to keep the faith and try another bet tonight on the AW. 8.10 Kempton 12 to contest this Class 4, 6f sprint handicap. There's a red hot favourite from the top stable of Saaed Bin Suroor and, in all fairness, this horse could take this easily. However, it only has a maiden win to its name and makes it handicap debut today off, what I believe, is a stiff looking mark of 83. The top one Drawnfromthepast is vying for 2nd favouritism here and comes off the back of an improved run lto, but that race was run at such a slow pace that the form cannot be considered as solid. Earlsmedic has the best of the draw for a front runner but doesn't look entirely straightforward. Furthermore, I'm not enamoured with the jockey. Phanton Whisper, meanwhile, has a wide draw and, despite a falling mark, would be of more interest back on soft ground on turf. The one I'm chancing my arm with will be: Fantasy Explorer (12/1 William Hill) - Importantly, is drawn well in stall 8 here and has the Dazzler on board, who has rode the horse to victory on 1 of his 2 rides on it. Hails from a good northern stable who only has this one running at the meeting, could be a pointer in itself. Difficult to recommend on its 3 runs this term but has not really had ideal conditions; first time up, struggled to get home as the horse stays an easy 6f but this was Pontefract, and an uphill finish. Followed that with a poor effort at Newmarket, probably outclassed and again didn't quite last home. 5 months off followed before running down the field in an apprentice handicap in this grade on soft ground at Ascot. The absence, coupled with the going, worked against the horse that day; conditions are more likely to suit tonight. Last win was 12 months off a mark of 82 so a return to this sort of level, has 83 here, is a major positive. Is 1 from 1 here, having won on its only track start some 3 yrs ago. This horse clearly dislikes soft ground and it's obvious that Class 2, where it has contested many races, is probably a step too far nowadays. Let's consider its record in Class 4 or lower handicaps, with nothing suggesting easy ground in the going description; 2-1-2-1-1 (all in its pomp of 2006) but since then, 2-1 last term off marks of 80 and 82. Certainly need to read more into the form to understand why this is a bet, however I do feel that if the Godolphin horse cannot justify the short price, then Fantasy Explorer may well be the one to take advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) :nana:nana:nana:nana:nana:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap Has everybody lumped on it then I got 20's at betfair at 7.50pm tonight :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy Welll done Russ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Delighted with that winner. Back to basics now and pleased it's paid dividends. Didn't settle early but given a good, positive ride holding off the Bin Suroor horse. Glad you got on a winner of mine Kev, rather than all the bloody losers!!! Drifted alarmingly out to 20's almost everywhere before being backed in just before the off.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Kev, you crack me up sometimes mate:lol Well done Russ:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) A very nice winner RUSS :clap , wish i had been on :wall :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Congrats on the winner mate :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) I was on the second, d'oh!! Great call on the winner :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted October 25, 2009 Share Posted October 25, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nice to see you back with a winner but also finding a short priced one to oppose that can't justify the price. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 1, 2009 Author Share Posted November 1, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Just back from holiday:ok. 2 that interest me to start the week but not "full" bets. However, in a bid to keep all selections in 1 thread, I'll post them up and keep a separate list of results for these. 3.50 Wolverhampton Just 9 for this Class 5 handicap over a mile and a half. A Cumani youngster dominates the betting but, at under 2/1, has to be taken on. Had Fallon on board lto for its handicap debut in a weaker race than this over C&D but finished over 2L back in 2nd and is raised 2lb for that effort. Up in mark and up in class, against some experienced performers, I'd like to be against it. The likely 2nd fav is the more exposed Chookie Hamilton, who likes it here and now looks well handicapped. My problem with this one is that it may need a bit further now and the 5lb claimer is replaced by a pro, so the 2lb ease in mark could effectively be called as a 3lb rise. The one I'd like to be on, hopefully getting around 6/1 in the early markets tomorrow, would be: Lilac Moon - Hails from the highly promising and in form yard of Tom Dascombe, and comes here with a big chance. Likes to race up with the pace which I find to be an advantage on most AW tracks and is drawn well in 3 to obtain a nice early position. Is being steadily eased down the weights and is just 2lb above its last winning mark now. Rattled up a hat trick of wins last term including one on its only try at this distance but has yet to fire this term. Interestingly though, all 3 runs this term have come following an absence of over 3 months from the track whilst it comes here today off the back of a 30 day break. Will be fresh yet fit and that could make all the difference. Decent performance lto where the front 5 pulled clear and, with only small improvement on that, I can see this one back in the winners enclosure. The extra 2f is expected to suit too. Trainer sends just this horse to the meeting and will be confident of leaving with a winner on the board. At worst, I see this as an EW bet to nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 1, 2009 Author Share Posted November 1, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) And onto the 2nd, far more speculative selection. 4.50 Wolverhampton A pretty shocking Class 6 handicap over 1m6f, with 12 runners doing battle. Leyte Gulf looks a worthy favourite but I think it's winning may be done for this season and may just be 2 or 3lb too high still in the weights. Cannot see the attraction in Tivers Song at all, raised 3lb for a 3rd in a race I could have won! Sparkaway is another up in the weights and, although in form, I'd be more confident on softish ground on turf, whilst the Irish raider can't be dismissed but is still winless after 25 career starts. At a huge price (take anything around 16 to 20's), I keep being swayed towards: Supernoverre - 3yo taking on its elders but gets 8lb for the privelige; that's the first positive. Has won 3 from 14 on the AW so knows how to win and has shown patches of form this term. Drawn in 1 which I hope will see the horse race prominent as I believe that will enhance its chance in this field. Tumbling down the handicap, it now races off just 60, its lowest ever mark having won handicaps off 69 and 71 earlier in the year. Since being returned to the AW in Sept, has finished a promising 5th over an inadequate 10f, followed by 2 poor runs but has shown more on its last 2 runs, finishing 3rd here off 65 and 5th at Kempton over 2m, where the slow pace was a negative. Ridden more prominently off a stronger pace and lower mark, I'd hope to see this one go well. The other thing to note is that it has cheekpieces on for only the 2nd time in its career; the last time was back in Feb where it duly landed the spoils at Lingfield. At worthwhile double figure odds and in a poor field, this is a horse with definite EW chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 2, 2009 Author Share Posted November 2, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Took the prices of: Lilac Moon, 7/1 Stan James BOG Supernoverre, 12/1 William Hill BOG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted November 2, 2009 Share Posted November 2, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Just the 1 placed Keep at it mate, the other big winner is here soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 2, 2009 Author Share Posted November 2, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Small loss to show from todays runners. Lilac Moon ran on from an impossible position to grab a very distant place whilst Supernoverre had no more off the final bend and stayed on at the one pace for 6th. Was right to oppose the Cumani hotpot but Chookie Hamilton surprised me and won well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 2, 2009 Author Share Posted November 2, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Ok, so just to explain how I will split my bets going forward. The 'full' bets will be as they have always been; strong fancies at nice EW prices (generally expected between 8/1 and 16/1). The other bets I will post, to be classed as 'reserve' bets will be horses that are fancied but don't quite fit into the 'full' bet criteria; I expect them to either be longer priced horses (16/1 upwards) or what I consider to be EW bets to nothing (7/1 or less) - these will generally be bets culminating from races where I believe there is a weak favourite that I want to oppose and will be the result of the analysis of the remaining contenders (whereas the 'full' bets will be horses I consider to be well in, irrespective of the favourites initial credentials). All bets will still be calculated to 5pts EW stakes, although in reality my staking is very different. Moving forward to Tuesday and I have 3 bets to post, 2 'full' and 1 'reserve'. To follow shortly.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 2, 2009 Author Share Posted November 2, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) *Reserve bet 3* 2.20 Kempton Class 5 handicap over 5f on the inner bend with 11 going to post. A race where I'm keen to oppose the fav hailing from the yard of Clive Cox. Femme De Fer does admittedly have a nice draw in 10 but the concern for me is the 2lb rise in the weights for finishing 2nd lto on its handicap debut. I also think that 6f is its trip and an extra furlong would make it more of a betting proposition. With 2 major worries for me, I'm happy to oppose. Looking at the other contenders, I think Punching could go well but being winless over 5f is enough to put me off, whilst Ask Jenny will go close with a clear run but its ability to find trouble in running makes me want to oppose. Albeit a short price but I can't get away from the excellent chance held by: Irish Music - Lightly raced 4yo and still a maiden but very well handicapped and must surely go close here today. Has an excellent draw in 11 and its racing style will be suited here, sitting just off the leader. Was off the track for a year before reappearing in the summer off 67 over 6f, finishing a promising 5th of 10. Was then off the track for another 4 months before running at Yarmouth over the minimum trip, off a tempting mark of just 60, eased 7lb. Looked the winner a furlong out before a combination of lack of fitness and a rival hanging badly left scuppered its chance. Races off the same mark today but also has the plus of a very promising 5lb claimer on top, making it look 5lb well in here. Stable in great form too and, provided it doesn't prove to be one of those frustrating maidens, I really fancy this one to take this at the expense of a fast finishing Ask Jenny and Punching. Odds may be a little skinny but anything around the 11/2 mark should be taken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 2, 2009 Author Share Posted November 2, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) *Full bet* 3.20 Kempton 14 for this low grade, Class 6 handicap over 1m2f. The 2 favs here are both opposable with Ask The Oracle making its handicap debut, something I always look to take on, whilst Thunderstruck is drawn wide and is raised in mark despite a defeat, another factor I look for. Of the other market principles, Hannicean is a negative having run in a 2m hurdle race just 24 hours ago, Inside Story has claims but I'm concerned over recent form, whilst Blue Turk is another to give its running but may be a few pounds too high. The horse I'm strongly drawn to is: Megalala - This one has major claims here over a C&D it clearly adores. Is one of the trainers 2 in the race but this holds the best chance and has a nice draw in 8. Big drop in mark from 64 back to 60, it now races off its last winning mark and, coupled with the ease in grade, should go really well. Loves the track but particularly loves the C&D with 3 wins from 4 starts, certainly more successful than when racing at other distances here. I firmly believe that's because of its front running tendencies and the 1m2f races here take place round the inner bend, meaning a much shorter straight and less chance for those in behind to get past. Another plus is that it should get an uncontested lead here so can dictate the tempo and kick hard off the final turn. In 10 starts at other distances here, has managed just 1 2nd & 1 3rd, whilst at this C&D, has finished 2nd at 33/1 and won its other 3 at 12/1, 7/1 and 9/2, all under this jockey. If the races pans out as I expect, this horse will prove very difficult to pass and could result in a nice double figure priced winner. Take anything around 10's when the race is priced up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 2, 2009 Author Share Posted November 2, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) *Full bet* 4.20 Kempton A really nice race, a Class 3 6f handicap with 12 runners. Quite an open looking heat with the exception of the Godolphin fav that I opposed just over a week ago, Hajoum, and I'm prepared to pass over it again, especially with the move to a stronger race off a 4lb higher mark. Several in with chances but the one for my money is: Toms Laughter (9/1 Bet365 BOG) - Strictly on a form line through Fantasy Explorer, this one has the beating of the fav, being 4lb better off for just under half a length. However, there is much more to this ones chances than that. Has been off the boil this term until its good run 2 days ago but I can find reasons for the poor showings. Firstly, its mark in the 90's was too high and it only showed improved form when returned to its last winning mark of 89 lto. The other positive is the return to 6f; 5 wins and 2 2nds from 11 starts is an impressive return compared with 2 wins and 1 2nd from 22 starts over other distances. Despite this stat, this is its first race over its ideal trip this term after 5 starts. Draw in 4 is not ideal but the longer straight will give it plenty of time to wear down the leaders, and Kempton is a track the horse likes; has a 2 from 2 record here. It's quick return to the track is also in its favour; has reappeared 4 times in its career within 5 days with a record of 2nd at 16/1, 1st at 8/1, 3rd at 7/1 and 4th (of 20) at 6/1. Too big a price to ignore and will go well at a rewarding price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted November 3, 2009 Share Posted November 3, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Good Luck for Today Russ :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 3, 2009 Author Share Posted November 3, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Poor day today but feel a little hard done by:wall. Irish Music ran well and was collared late on. Looking into the form though, the winner had solid credentials and I'm disappointed I ignored it on the basis on draw. Still can't believe Megalala didn't make the running! As soon as it settled in midfield, chance was gone. Worse still, front runners were strongly favoured. Tom's Laughter didn't break that well and pulled a bit too hard early. Not sure the inside rail suited when the gap came and that would have cost it it's chance. Not too disheartened though as I still believe the picks were solid. In hindsight though, the winner of the first could have been backed with a bit more study. Will come back with tomorrows bet later on..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 4, 2009 Author Share Posted November 4, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Poor fare for Wednesday and just the one bet that stands out to me, albeit a relatively speculative punt. *Reserve Bet 4* 12.10 Nottingham First race of the day and this will be the sum total of my investments today. 17 runners expected for this Class 6, 5f sprint on soft ground. What has been evident this term is that the stands rail is strongly favoured, as is the tendency to race up with the pace. On that basis alone, I'm striking through all the runners in single figure draws. Of the others, Pinball & Mission Impossible are out of form, Berrymead has a tendency to start very slowly and Tanley has a very poor run lto to put behind it. This leaves us with 4 and none are easily discounted. Silk Gallery has a great chance to follow up its lto win from the best draw of all but Alacity has claims of reversing the form with its 6lb pull, whilst El Potro is dangerous to dismiss on its favourite track with ground and mark to suit, and absence no issue. However, the one I'd like to be on at a big price is: Deo Valente - Still a maiden but that isn't enough to put me off here. Drawn really well in 14 and could easily make the running. The only one of the 3 inside that could prevent this one grabbing the rail is Silk Gallery. Continues to drop down in distance and I actually think the drop to the minimum on this going could really benefit it. It's best runs on turf have come on softish ground so conditions should suit. Performed well in its maidens so handicap mark has been way too high all season, dropping 21lbs this term. Dropped to this mark of 54 lto when finishing an excellent 3rd on the AW at Wolverhampton. Made the running at a decent clip that day over a furlong further and was only collared in the final 200 yards. Had first time tongue tie and blinkers that day and repeats that today. The horses that finished 1st, 2nd and 4th that day were all held up off the fast pace set by the selection, and this one finished almost 6L in front of the next horse to race prominently, representing decent form. Same mark today, shrewd trainer who makes his money from sprinters and same promising jockey on top all indicate likelihood of a big run. Trainer is showing 3 winners and 4 places in the last 2 weeks, whilst jockey has a 8 wins from 30 rides this year for the trainer, an excellent strike rate. I expect a decent price on this, around 12/1, and think it will run a big race, with the 3 mentioned above the likely challengers. Also think it's worth combining the above 4 (Silk Gallery, Alacity, El Potro and Deo Valente) in forecast & tricast combos. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted November 4, 2009 Author Share Posted November 4, 2009 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Very disappointing run from Deo Valente today. I did have it right though regarding the high numbers with Alacity & Silk Gallery finishing 2nd & 3rd, whilst the other 2 places were filled by horses in double figure draws, Mission Impossible & Pinball - both overlooked as they were out of form!:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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