RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2.35 Newbury Big field of 24 for the Spring Cup, a Class 2 handicap over the straight mile. First thing I noticed when scouring the field is the lack of pace. There's only one front runner and that's Bennandonner drawn in stall 15, and the other with plenty of dash is Makaamen (drawn 23) so I'm looking for something drawn in between those 2. I also want a horse that will race up with the pace too so that leads me to: Desert Creek (11/1 Coral) - In these races, you need a progressive type that could prove pattern class and this one fits the profile. From the top yard of Sir Michael with the champ on top, there's no issues with the combo. Started last season in handicaps and won its first 2 off 79 and 87, races off 96 today. Won both of those with a bit in hand including a 52K handicap at Haydock. Would have been hot fav for this but for his final 2 races, both over a mile at Ascot. Both runs for me are easily excusable, the 2nd of those when finishing lame whilst the first one was on account of the draw and the jockeys decision. Started in stall 22 but the jockey switched him all the way over to the stands rail and, despite coming with every chance 2f out, the energy expended in that early move put paid to its effort, finishing 21st of 30. Good or just the easy side is perfect so conditions look ideal. Also likes to race prominently and travels sweetly in its race. Drawn perfectly, I expect this one to get a good tow along and come with its effort 2f out to seal these quickly. Much bigger price than it should be.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 3 poor, poor efforts today. Sorry. 1 more for this evening..... 6.00 Nottingham 17 runners and 4 places paid for this 5f sprint handicap, Class 6. 2 horse in single figures but both are opposable. Wreningham is up 6lb for its lto win but is poorly drawn and better on softer whilst Russian Rocket has conditions in its favour but 6's is too short. The one for me is: First Blade (14/1 SportingBet) - 2nd in the weights here and has a perfectly good draw just 1 off the rail. Still lightly raced, 14 career runs and only 4 on turf. Likes to race prominently, needs fast ground and races in its class today. Owner-trainer who has been recently in the winners enclosure and this horse goes well for todays jockey. After an absence, this one goes well finishing 3rd @ 50's and 2nd @ 20's on only 2 runs with gap of 60+ days. Has consistently recorded excellent speed figures indicating this mark is well within its reach. 3 tries here, once over 8f when no show as trip was too far but other 2 (at 6f & 5f) have resulted in a 2nd & 3rd. Record in this grade over this trip reads 3-1-3, whilst overall 5f record is won 1, placed 3 more from 5 starts. Should be able to grab the rail, race up with the pace and take this with everything in its favour at a very big price.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Awful day summed up in the last race. I've re-run the race and feel that First Blade would have won this (or at least been in the places) with any luck whatsover. Reared leaving the stalls, bolted left losing several lengths and then recovered. Cruising 2f out but was hampered badly when making its run, stayed on again but again had to swerve finishing 8th. Must be of interest nto.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2.50 Ripon Class 5 handicap, for these 13 racing over the straight 5f. Select Committee and Kyzer Chief will battle out favouritism but I'm opposig them both. The former ran well last week but, to me, didn't have any excuses whilst the latter may succumb to a fast finisher in a race where there is plenty of pace on & could suit a hold up performer. Despite a slightly skinny price, I'm taking: Sands Crooner (6/1 Bet365 BOG) - Trainer in good heart at present and the horse looked to be on its way back recently. Races off its lowest mark for 12 months and is dropped in grade too, whilst having a good draw in 4. Loves 5f on firmish ground, especially on a sharp track and that's exactly the conditions it gets here. Dropped 1lb to 66 following 6th last week, just behind Select Committee but has excuses. Just 1L behind that rival but was blocked off quite badly when making its challenges. The handicapper has responded by dropping the horse 1lb and, with the run under its belt, I feel all is in place for a big run. Was none too shabby at the start of last year and, although form figures suggest otherwise, the horse performed creditably later on in the year. Was poorly drawn at Chester, similarly at Nottingham combined with the fact the horse swerved badly left even further away from the pace. tracks at Beverley and Pontefract were too stiff and good efforts at Newmarket & Ascot in much tougher events than this. All those runs over a mark between 7lbs and 14lbs higher than todays. Looks incredibly well handicapped and with the fast pace in its favour, I expect the horse to get off the mark for the season.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 6.35 Haydock With 1 NR, there's now 12 left in this Class 4 handicap over 1m2f. Lots of pace on here and I think it could help the hold up performers. I'll be taking on the front runner fav Danderek whose raised harshly in the weights, up in class and not sure to be as good on turf. I'll also oppose Rosbay who I believe is suited better to cut in the ground. This leads me to the selection which is: Cry Alot Boy (14/1 Totesport BOG) - A confirmed hold up performer so every chance the race will be run to suit. Price, I believe, is inflated by the fact the horse often fluffs the start but, with the furious pace, I think this one will stay on well down the outside on the long Haydock run in. Very lightly raced for a 7yo, this horse has slipped to a good mark and is probably better back on turf. Won its last start on grass last year, albeit off 2lb lower and soft but also has good track form, finishing 2nd twice in 2 maiden runs here, at big prices of 25/1 & 14/1. Good jockey booking too and interesting that this is trainer owned, with 2 entries for it in the next 4 days. Trainer is running it here, despite an easier race at Yarmouth early next week. That could be a big pointer. Form on the AW has been ok, mainly at Kempton which is a track that won't suit. 4th in a Class 3 starts ago in a higher grade off 4lb higher mark too, and 5th lto when drawn in the coffin box but, promisingly, was the only one to make any progress from off the pace. With this race run to suit and entries looking significant, I'll take this one at a massive double figure price.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 7.05 Haydock 4 places on offer as 16 line up for this Class 4, 1m handicap. Again, a fast pace is likely and a very open heat, going 13/2 the field. Looking for the big prices, I'm going with: Just Bond (14/1 Victor Chandler BOG) - Stable going ok with a surprise 50/1 winner recently so no worries on that score. This horse is a course specialist, winning once and placing 3 times in 6 starts here. Only finished out of the frame when in Class 3, so Class 4 at the track is perfect. Has been keeping fit by plying its trade on the AW, finishing 7th in a Class 2 lto. Now dropped 3lb to just 80 in a race 2 grades lower than last time. Add to that a very useful 3lb claimer, this mark looks extremely promising. Has its ground too as need GF to be seen at its best, in fact its form in this grade over the trip on the ground in the last 3 years reads 7(off 85)-2-1-1-2-3. If we narrow it down to this track, it becomes 2-1-2-3. Draw is fine and recent form suggests it still retains plenty of ability so, at a huge price, I'm on at EW odds.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

2.50 Ripon Class 5 handicap, for these 13 racing over the straight 5f. Select Committee and Kyzer Chief will battle out favouritism but I'm opposig them both. The former ran well last week but, to me, didn't have any excuses whilst the latter may succumb to a fast finisher in a race where there is plenty of pace on & could suit a hold up performer. Despite a slightly skinny price, I'm taking: Sands Crooner (6/1 Bet365 BOG) - Trainer in good heart at present and the horse looked to be on its way back recently. Races off its lowest mark for 12 months and is dropped in grade too, whilst having a good draw in 4. Loves 5f on firmish ground, especially on a sharp track and that's exactly the conditions it gets here. Dropped 1lb to 66 following 6th last week, just behind Select Committee but has excuses. Just 1L behind that rival but was blocked off quite badly when making its challenges. The handicapper has responded by dropping the horse 1lb and, with the run under its belt, I feel all is in place for a big run. Was none too shabby at the start of last year and, although form figures suggest otherwise, the horse performed creditably later on in the year. Was poorly drawn at Chester, similarly at Nottingham combined with the fact the horse swerved badly left even further away from the pace. tracks at Beverley and Pontefract were too stiff and good efforts at Newmarket & Ascot in much tougher events than this. All those runs over a mark between 7lbs and 14lbs higher than todays. Looks incredibly well handicapped and with the fast pace in its favour, I expect the horse to get off the mark for the season.

Unlucky, beaten a neck :wall

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers Kev, cracking price after drifting out to 8's. That elusive winner will come soon;)

[Spooner]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

7.05 Haydock 4 places on offer as 16 line up for this Class 4, 1m handicap. Again, a fast pace is likely and a very open heat, going 13/2 the field. Looking for the big prices, I'm going with: Just Bond (14/1 Victor Chandler BOG) - Stable going ok with a surprise 50/1 winner recently so no worries on that score. This horse is a course specialist, winning once and placing 3 times in 6 starts here. Only finished out of the frame when in Class 3, so Class 4 at the track is perfect. Has been keeping fit by plying its trade on the AW, finishing 7th in a Class 2 lto. Now dropped 3lb to just 80 in a race 2 grades lower than last time. Add to that a very useful 3lb claimer, this mark looks extremely promising. Has its ground too as need GF to be seen at its best, in fact its form in this grade over the trip on the ground in the last 3 years reads 7(off 85)-2-1-1-2-3. If we narrow it down to this track, it becomes 2-1-2-3. Draw is fine and recent form suggests it still retains plenty of ability so, at a huge price, I'm on at EW odds.

Nice one Russ. :ok

[kevshat]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Cheers Kev' date=' cracking price after drifting out to 8's. That elusive winner will come soon;)[/quote'] You ain't wrong mate :ok. Cracking stuff today Russ :clap:clap:clap

[Boulder5111]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Superb stuff Russ - well done !! :clap

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) nice one mate, 12/1 winner :clap you were about 2's on to get a winner this weekend!

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers guys, I needed it especially after the first one was just touched off. Nice to get back into the winners enclosure, let's hope we can kick on from here:ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Nice winner today mate :clap

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Well Done Russ :clap:clap:clap:clap

[Stevet1859]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cracking result Russ :clap

[philss_99]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Excellent selection & reasoning with Just Bond. Well Done Mate ... :ok

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) great work yesterday mate :clap:clap

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) fantastic work russ fella..keep it up:clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Thanks all:ok. Looking at just the 1 bet for tomorrow, but will post up in the morning when the prices are up.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 4.40 Newcastle 11 runners for this Class 6 handicap over a mile. 4 horses head the market but I think there are valid reasons to be opposing all of them. Morocchius is 7lb above its highest winning mark and is 8lb worse off with Silly Gilly for a neck last summer. Quiet Mountain is 5lb higher for a win in a very poor event at Wolves lto and this is its first try on turf whilst Silken Promise has a bout of seconditis, is still climbing the weights despite being a maiden after 11 starts and the trip will be too sharp. Crocodile Bay comes from a stable in form but the horse is winless in 18 months and that has to be of concern. This leads us to our bet of: Silly Gilly (11/1 Totesport BOG) - Consistent type with an excellent jockey booking today. Is on a very attractive mark following last 3 poor runs but valid excuses for each of those. Was down the field over trip too far in an amateur race where form is always suspect, before finding Southwell's AW didn't suit. Lto was seasonal reappearance and this horse has never won at its best first time up, add to that the soft ground and it's no surprise that it never got into it. Will strip much fitter now, won 2nd time up last term, is down in mark, down in class and the better ground will be perfect. Prior to those 3 mentioned runs, form was amazingly consistent with a win and 6 places from previous 10 starts, all off marks either the same or higher than todays. Form in this grade, on good or better ground around 7f or 1m reads 3-1-2-1-3-2-7(amateur race & hampered). Another plus is its record with an absence of 14-30 days - since being stepped up from distances, record reads 1-2-1-3-3-2-3-10(trip too far). Versus a record when under 2 weeks of 3-3-4-7-7-4-3-3 and over 30 days of 5-7-11-7. Can't believe 11's is available and I fancy this horse to go off half those odds so I'm getting on now.

[Kithanga]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

4.40 Newcastle 11 runners for this Class 6 handicap over a mile. 4 horses head the market but I think there are valid reasons to be opposing all of them. Morocchius is 7lb above its highest winning mark and is 8lb worse off with Silly Gilly for a neck last summer. Quiet Mountain is 5lb higher for a win in a very poor event at Wolves lto and this is its first try on turf whilst Silken Promise has a bout of seconditis, is still climbing the weights despite being a maiden after 11 starts and the trip will be too sharp. Crocodile Bay comes from a stable in form but the horse is winless in 18 months and that has to be of concern. This leads us to our bet of: Silly Gilly (11/1 Totesport BOG) - Consistent type with an excellent jockey booking today. Is on a very attractive mark following last 3 poor runs but valid excuses for each of those. Was down the field over trip too far in an amateur race where form is always suspect, before finding Southwell's AW didn't suit. Lto was seasonal reappearance and this horse has never won at its best first time up, add to that the soft ground and it's no surprise that it never got into it. Will strip much fitter now, won 2nd time up last term, is down in mark, down in class and the better ground will be perfect. Prior to those 3 mentioned runs, form was amazingly consistent with a win and 6 places from previous 10 starts, all off marks either the same or higher than todays. Form in this grade, on good or better ground around 7f or 1m reads 3-1-2-1-3-2-7(amateur race & hampered). Another plus is its record with an absence of 14-30 days - since being stepped up from distances, record reads 1-2-1-3-3-2-3-10(trip too far). Versus a record when under 2 weeks of 3-3-4-7-7-4-3-3 and over 30 days of 5-7-11-7. Can't believe 11's is available and I fancy this horse to go off half those odds so I'm getting on now.

Good luck with that one Russ. I looked at him too, similar reasons but was put off by the yard not having had a winner since September either jumps or flat. If he doesn't run up to his best it might be worth noting him for future when the trainer is in better form. Well done on the big winner the other day btw. K

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Good luck with that one Russ. I looked at him too, similar reasons but was put off by the yard not having had a winner since September either jumps or flat. If he doesn't run up to his best it might be worth noting him for future when the trainer is in better form. Well done on the big winner the other day btw. K

Cheers mate & I did note stable form. However, as it's such a small stable & small number of runners, it didn't put me off enough. The stable's horse do seem to have been running to form in the main so I'm happy with that. They've just battered the price on it, 7's now. Surely it's not the weight of my 50p EW?:lol:lol

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

6.35 Haydock With 1 NR, there's now 12 left in this Class 4 handicap over 1m2f. Lots of pace on here and I think it could help the hold up performers. I'll be taking on the front runner fav Danderek whose raised harshly in the weights, up in class and not sure to be as good on turf. I'll also oppose Rosbay who I believe is suited better to cut in the ground. This leads me to the selection which is: Cry Alot Boy (14/1 Totesport BOG) - A confirmed hold up performer so every chance the race will be run to suit. Price, I believe, is inflated by the fact the horse often fluffs the start but, with the furious pace, I think this one will stay on well down the outside on the long Haydock run in. Very lightly raced for a 7yo, this horse has slipped to a good mark and is probably better back on turf. Won its last start on grass last year, albeit off 2lb lower and soft but also has good track form, finishing 2nd twice in 2 maiden runs here, at big prices of 25/1 & 14/1. Good jockey booking too and interesting that this is trainer owned, with 2 entries for it in the next 4 days. Trainer is running it here, despite an easier race at Yarmouth early next week. That could be a big pointer. Form on the AW has been ok, mainly at Kempton which is a track that won't suit. 4th in a Class 3 starts ago in a higher grade off 4lb higher mark too, and 5th lto when drawn in the coffin box but, promisingly, was the only one to make any progress from off the pace. With this race run to suit and entries looking significant, I'll take this one at a massive double figure price.

This one out again today russ fella:cow Down in class,run behind it,best draw of all..if it gets the start right place chance at 22-1?

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Yes, saw that it was running. Class & further drop in mark a real positive but I'm put off by the draw actually (widest of all on the round course) and the fact it didn't pick up lto off the fast pace. The easier ground should suit though. Will be disappointed if it wins but enough doubt for me to ignore. 22's is a big price though.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Ended up as a NR, mate:ok. Onto today and taking 2 bets... 4.05 Nottingham 14 left in now for this 10f, Class 6 handicap and I'm confident that many of these can be struck off immediately. Bookies go 12/1 bar the first 5 and it's those 5 I'll concentrate on. Both Major Promise & Colonel Sherman would look well in on their AW form but they've never been as good on turf so I can't take either of them at single figures whilst Sea Land did run well 3 starts back but has something to prove on recent efforts. Royal Straight is from the powerful Fahey stable but 7/2 for a horse that's only won a claimer, never won on turf and raised 2lb for finishing 3rd at 7/4 on its latest start makes it opposable. All that leaves us with is: Magic Haze (8/1 Bet365 BOG) - Small stable but very interesting that Seb Sanders takes the ride here. Has a nice low draw here, is well handicapped, should go well in the grade and, provided ground is ok, then a big run is expected. Has looked a different horse in 3 runs this season and is still unexposed. Won back in Feb at Southwell on the AW, taking a poor event off 55 before 3rd nto off same mark at same track. Up in grade for next run at Doncaster in an amateur event and raised 3lb, the horse ran a cracker finishing 4th of 17 when denied a clear run. Is dropped back in grade, eased slightly in the weights and apprentices / amateurs now replaced by a top jock here. Did run a good race at Redcar last summer on fast ground to suggest going should be ok and, with question marks over so many of the leading fancies and the rest being really poor types, I think this looks a very nice EW bet.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 7.50 Warwick With Nightjar just declared a NR, there's now 13 lining up for this Class 4 handicap over 7f. It looks a really decent handicap with a hot fav in Cumani's charge, Brother Cha. So lightly raced, it could be open to any amount of improvement but 2/1 against hardened handicappers is not for me. Regeneration is the only other in single figures but it's record in this class makes it opposable for me. The one that will carry my support is: Satwa Laird (Bet365 BOG) - Hails from stable in form, 4 winners from his last 14 runners, and reunited with the champ for the 1st time since a super run at Ascot last term. Form looks really solid and is now racing off a good mark, is fit from a couple of recent runs and should go very close. Won its maiden easily in 2008 and, since then, has failed to win in handicap company but has gone close on several occasions, including 3 2nds. Since being dropped into this grade last summer, finished 4th of 11 at Salisbury, a head 2nd at Goodwood and then half a length 2nd at Ascot over a furlong further under todays jockey, the first 2 pulling clear. Followed that with 2 average runs in a higher grade but both of those were on the AW. The 2nd of which was its seasonal reappearance. Had its 2nd run of the season last week at Ascot when well supported. Finished 4L 5th of 10 but travelled really smoothly but didn't see out the trip. Drop in trip along with a 2lb drop in the weights and stronger handling should see this horse make its presence felt and 10/1 looks massively overpriced.

[Kithanga]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

7.50 Warwick With Nightjar just declared a NR, there's now 13 lining up for this Class 4 handicap over 7f. It looks a really decent handicap with a hot fav in Cumani's charge, Brother Cha. So lightly raced, it could be open to any amount of improvement but 2/1 against hardened handicappers is not for me. Regeneration is the only other in single figures but it's record in this class makes it opposable for me. The one that will carry my support is: Satwa Laird (Bet365 BOG) - Hails from stable in form, 4 winners from his last 14 runners, and reunited with the champ for the 1st time since a super run at Ascot last term. Form looks really solid and is now racing off a good mark, is fit from a couple of recent runs and should go very close. Won its maiden easily in 2008 and, since then, has failed to win in handicap company but has gone close on several occasions, including 3 2nds. Since being dropped into this grade last summer, finished 4th of 11 at Salisbury, a head 2nd at Goodwood and then half a length 2nd at Ascot over a furlong further under todays jockey, the first 2 pulling clear. Followed that with 2 average runs in a higher grade but both of those were on the AW. The 2nd of which was its seasonal reappearance. Had its 2nd run of the season last week at Ascot when well supported. Finished 4L 5th of 10 but travelled really smoothly but didn't see out the trip. Drop in trip along with a 2lb drop in the weights and stronger handling should see this horse make its presence felt and 10/1 looks massively overpriced.

I did my money on him last time out when I thought the Ascot mile would suit. I wasn't impressed with him off the bridle. Granted, he could have needed it and will benefit from having Ryan on board too tonight but I was concerned about 7f on a sharp track. Best of luck with him. Although I'll try to cheer him on for you I can't guarantee it. You know how it is with one you've backed last time out that failed. You really don't want to see it hose up next time at a double figure price.:lol

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps :lol:lol:lol Cheers K. My money's down now so there'll be me cheering in 1 corner and you booing in the other:lol.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) First update on figures this year..... 2010 Staked = 220.00pts Returned = 253.25pts Profit = +33.25pts Yield = +15.1% Bets = 22 Winners = 2 (9.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 8 (36.4% s/r) 2007-9 incl Staked = 2260.00pts Returned = 2945.96pts Profit = +685.96pts Yield = +30.4% Bets = 227 Winners = 29 (12.8% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 79 (34.8% s/r) So, it's been a slow start to 2010 with just 2 winners in Penitent in the Lincoln, and Just Bond in a race at Haydock. A case of what could have been too with Esprit De Midas being touched at 20's by a 50/1 rag!! On a poor run at present, with a winner & a 8/1 2nd sandwiched in between 9 losers. On a current unplaced run of 3 but hope to start to pick it up now. Reviewing the bets, there's been a few that really should never have been taken but I guess that's the constant learning curve. Here's to a new week and hopefully a change in fortunes:ok