RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Last bet was 4th, just outside the places. Onto today, 3 bets expected in total but just one this afternoon (2 more this evening). 2.15 Leicester 6f, Class 4 handicap with 15 runners. Looks competitive on paper but I do think that class will tell and there are 2 above this grade, the top 2. Falasteen has excellent claims but looks a little short in the betting so I'm taking: Shifting Star (9/1 Bet365 BOG) - Top weight here who hasn't won for quite a while but looks ready to strike today. Trainer's only runner of the day and jockey's best chance of a winner too. Races off 85 today and has won off 88 and 92 in the past so no worries from a mark perspective. Is now off 85 but ran some good races in defeat last year off higher, including a 2nd off 89. Hasn't run in this grade on turf for almost 3 years and in 2 tries in the grade has finished 1st and 2nd. Was dropped to this grade for its reappearance on the sand, finishing 2nd off 1lb lower. Trip and going look perfect, as well as draw, so 9's is way too big facing rivals it's much better than. Great EW shot.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 7.20 Doncaster A 10f, Class 3 handicap with 12 runners. I really want to oppose both Changing The Guard and Arlequin who, for me, are priced up off the back of a run at Ponty 11 days ago. The one I want to take them on with is: Breakheart (7/1 Bet365 BOG) - Was 10's just 15 mins ago (not saying which price I took:lol), however has been heavily backed in and is still very good value in my opinion. Looked a very good prospect last year, winning 2 and finishing 2nd in 2 more (one off todays mark against the very good Hanoverian Baron). Since then, had 2 poorish runs on ground too soft and a very decent 5th behind Forte Del Marmi. That form off 91 is good enough to take this. Needed its reappearance in the Spring Mile but, again, this is easier and a lower mark and lower grade will help. Stable in cracking form and jockey comes here for just one run. Huge chance here and will be very disappointed if its not heavily involved in the shake up.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 7.35 Haydock 1m, Class 5 handicap with 12 runners. The 2 favs here are the 2 lto winners whose chance shouldn't be dismissed but I'll ignore them as they don't look the types to keep winning, whilst Bajan Flash may need a stiffer track. I'll take: Tarooq (9/1 Boylesports BOG) - I'll take the top weight here from an in form yard. Another dropped in grade and in mark, a combination of those factors make this price too big. Is still lightly raced, with just 5 races on the clock. 2nd in a couple of maidens before hosing up at Newcastle. Went into handicaps off 73 and didn't enjoy setting the pace over 10f, a trip in itself that was too far. Next up was a more promising effort on the AW when 3rd off 72. Back a further 2lb to 70 and dropped into a Class 5, conditions look perfect with the flat track expected to suit. Is certainly the one with the most scope for improvement so I'll take the 9's in a race full of exposed performers.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Sorry for the very late update. I've not been around much due to illness. 2011 Staked = 370.00pts Returned = 426.51pts Profit = +56.51pts Yield = +15.3% Bets = 37 Winners = 3 (8.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 12 (32.4% s/r) A very tiny profit on the week thanks to Kings Counsel getting us back in the winners enclosure. Before that, Bramshaw was a poor bet and ran accordingly whilst Arizona John ran a nice race but could only manage 4th. The other 3 bets were all from Saturday and Shifting Star & Breakheart disappointed before Tarooq was heavily gambled on and grabbed 3rd. 1 win & 1 place from 6 bets. Back on the right lines but still some way to go before I'm where I want to be. Couple of lessons learnt though: don't bet in 5f handicaps and ignore Windsor:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 4.10 Musselburgh Camerooney out, leaving us with 11 runners for this decent looking Class 3 handicap over 7f. The one I like here is a market leader but, of the others, Dubai Dynamo is easing in mark but is rising in class so I can't have 4's about that whilst Malcheek is now better on firmer ground or the AW. I'm taking: Nasri (5/1 Bet365 BOG) - Hope this one's as good as the Arsenal midfielder but, even if not, I think it's good enough to take this. Let's get the negatives out of the way; hasn't got the greatest draw in the world although not sure it will inconvenience whilst is winless for over 2 years. However, today looks ideal to put that right. Back in 2008 when it won its last race, a Class 2 handicap, it also finished 3rd in the Timeform Million at Newmarket. Since then, has struggled in Listed and Group 3 events whilst, in handicaps, has found marks in the very high 90's a bit too much to overcome. Is now off just 90 and down to Class 3 today, for the first time in its career. Had one run this season and not without promise. Very speedy to finish 3L 7th of 20 at Donny against Horseradish in a Class 2, when stable wasn't exactly flying. That was over 6f and definitely needs 7f in my opinion so trip, drop in grade and 2lb ease in the weights all point to a big run. Stable is in tip top form now and looks to be jockeys best chance of a winner today. Would like this one to take up a prominent position in a race where quite a few will be held up and, if it can tack over early, I fancy it to take this en route to better things this season.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Well done today Russ :clap:clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Cheers mate:ok Pleased with that. Was a point or 2 shorter than I expected but glad I took the bet. Nicholls gave it a tremendous ride and deservedly landed the spoils. Going to be a little more selective with the bets from here on in:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Easy update this week as I've only had 1 bet & it was a winner. 2011 Staked = 380.00pts Returned = 466.51pts Profit = +86.51pts Yield = +22.8% Bets = 38 Winners = 4 (10.5% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 13 (34.2% s/r) Weekly P/L 20/03 +96.25pts 27/03 +20.00pts 03/04 -49.12pts 10/04 -11.25pts 17/04 +00.63pts 24/04 +30.00pts So, just the 1 bet this week due to a combination of feeling like crap & being a bit more selective. Nasri was the horse, ran yesterday and held on well to record an all the way success. 5's was a little skinny, thought we have got 13/2 but still felt it worthy of a bet. Can't imagine there will be many bets this week. Had a scan through the cards for the week and not much jumping out, although there may be 1 or 2. Also, I'm away from Friday until Monday so no bets then.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2.25 Warwick Opening race on the card, a Class 5 handicap over 6f with 14 runners. I want to oppose the front 3 in the market; Aleqa, I feel, will need the run whilst Stevie Gee is raised 4lb for finishing 2nd lto. Why should it go one better when its mark is on the up? Ebraam is priced up on the back of its AW form and isn't as good on turf. I'm with: Come On Safari (10/1 Bet365 BOG) - Very lightly raced animal with just 6 runs on the board. Is with a new stable who has yet to train a winner but is highly rated & will soon be off the mark, I'm certain of that. Interesting too that, of trainer's 2 runners here, the other is ridden by the 'normal' jockey but new jockey has been brought in to ride this one. 2 years ago, in its 2yo days, ran a good 4th on its 2nd start over this trip before hosing up in its 3rd start at Folkestone over 7f. That run was its only run on firmish ground, same as it has here, and travelled supremely well that day and quickened in such a way that suggests drop back in trip won't be a problem. 3 runs since have all been after an absence so I'm ignoring them, even though it's travelled well in 2 of them and only a lack of fitness has found it out. Back on turf today and eased an attractive looking 3lb to a mark of just 72 for this. I honestly believe sprinting could be the right move for this horse and I wonder whether the trainer ran it over a mile just to get a run in & its mark down. Is drawn well, near the rail and close to the 2 that will surely set a brisk pace. Given a good break and luck in running, I think 10's is a big price for a horse with scope for improvement.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Going a little against my normal grain tomorrow, taking one in a 5f race which I'm generally trying to avoid. 3.30 Chester Class 2, 13 runner handicap over a very sharp 5f here and you need to be a speedster with a low draw. No horse has been placed from stall 9 or above in the last 10 years so I'm discounting those drawn above 8. Of the others, Green Park should be outclassed, Noverre To Go needs another furlong, Fathom Five is stable 2nd string, Doctor Parkes & Falasteen may struggle off their revised marks, Blue Jack may not get the run of the race with its hold up style and Breathless Kiss is flattered by its run in a Group race at the weekend where the first 11 finished in a heap. The one I like is: Moorhouse Lad (9/1 Betfred BOG) - The fancy double figure prices have now gone but, at 9's, it's still tremendous value. Goes very well for the jockey, hails from a stable in form, is a fast starting front runner and has the plumb draw in box 1. Admittedly, finished down the field at Newbury on reappearance but has never shown anything after 100 day absence or more, but did show loads of speed for the first 3f or so. Also, didn't race on the best ground. Will come on a bundle for that run and is stable's only entered runner at the Chester meeting this week. Hasn't run off a mark this low for almost 4 years, in fact it's been racing mainly in Group races including several Group 1's. Shown enough last year to suggest this horse still retains its ability and can cut it at the top level. Back in a handicap, on ideal ground and from the best draw, this one will shorten in the betting and should live up to its ever decreasing odds by taking this en route to more races in Group company this season. Big chance.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Poor run from ML. That's it now, 5f handicaps are banished from the list forever. One for Friday. 5.10 Chester A 12 runner mile & a half Class 4 handicap and several in with chances. Going 6/1 the field so hard to pinpoint the winner but the one I like at a decent price is: Destinys Dream (10/1 Bet365 BOG) - I really like the chances of this one, despite its unfashionable stable. Has loads in its favour, including the drop in both grade and mark albeit still 4lb above last winning mark. Looks a good horse at this trip, loves the firmish going and has a nice record around Chester. Add to that an excellent low draw and plenty to recommend this one. Won 3 times last year and placed a further 6 times from just 11 runs. It's no shows were on its reappearance run and when upped to listed company. This is its 2nd run back, ran down the field first time up but not without promise so, if taking its form forward from last term, has a major chance. Won 1, placed 2 more from 4 Chester starts, 4 win / 6 places from 14 tries at the trip as well as favourable records in grade, on the ground and with todays jock on top. Looks too big in an open race and I'm expecting a very big run from this smooth travelling sort.

[Aykay1]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Good going so far Russ :clap Quick question, do you bet these to win or each way? I followed you yesterday but wasn't sure which bet to place. I went each way in the end.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Good going so far Russ :clap Quick question, do you bet these to win or each way? I followed you yesterday but wasn't sure which bet to place. I went each way in the end.

Always EW mate:ok I've always bet EW in this thread. Have thought about win only but EW suits my style better. Been a bit quiet lately as I've been away a lot. Need to get back on track with a winner.

[mowgli77]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Just posting in here so you don't miss it - are you up for the Dante meeting at all? Me and Kev are there all 3 days and Fintron and Wizzkid are there on Wednesday I think. :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Just posting in here so you don't miss it - are you up for the Dante meeting at all? Me and Kev are there all 3 days and Fintron and Wizzkid are there on Wednesday I think. :ok

This week? Bloody hell, that's come around quick. Probably struggling but let me see what I can do:ok One bet for tomorrow. 3.50 Redcar 7f, Class 4 handicap with 11 runners. The early market suggests it's between 4 but I have good reason to go against all of them. One is a 3yo and they should generally be opposed until June/July, one is raised in the weights despite losing lto, one is off the same mark as 2nd lto but that was in an awful race and will struggle to defy rise in grade and the other needs an easy lead which it certainly won't get here. The horse that grabs my attention though is: Summer Dancer (12/1 William Hill BOG) - I don't see this price lasting too much longer. From a stable in form, this horse has a top chance here. Ideal trip, goes well on the ground, jockey is 3 from 10 on the horse but, most importantly, needs a strong pace as it's hold up style demands that. On this straight track, there should be no traffic problems and a fast pace is guaranteed with several that like to lead. The other element regarding pace that intrigues me is that the trainer, normally not one to go mob handed in handicaps, also runs Polish World, a horse that loves to bound out of the gates & make it a true stamina test. That's perfect for my horse and hopefully I've read the plan right - get a run into PW for its first start of the season but also to ensure the lightening pace that will see SD to best effect. Started the season well but was down the field lto where the snail pace put paid to its chance. Has been very consistent off this sort of mark and is the type to pop up at a price, did so at 14's last term. Should be spot on, fitness wise, after 2 starts in the last 30 days so, at a big looking 12's, I'll get on now and hope I haven't read too much into the trainers plans.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps In shocking form at present in the thread but hope to put it right tomorrow. 20.00 Newmarket A tight looking 10 runner Class 3 handicap over 7f. You can keep Greensward for me as I'm sure it will need the run whilst fav, Primaevel, could struggle back on turf and in this higher grade. I'll get straight to the point, the one I'm backing is: Linnens Star (8/1 Bet365 BOG) - I really fancy this ones chances here and can't believe we're getting 8/1. Trainer & jockey's only runner here which is a tip in itself but has much more than that going for it. Still lightly raced with only 7 races under its belt including a 3L maiden winner here at HQ last summer. The other 2 maidens it contested were pretty hot, both times finishing 3rd (behind Afsare and Attash). Started off in handicaps off 88 and ran a creditable 5th on the AW when trying to make all. Same position next time out when hold up tactics were employed. Best run, though, of last term was it's 4th here, off 1lb higher, behind some decent types. Had the worst of the draw but ran a cracker despite not getting much cover. The race that has my mind made up though is the Spring Mile at Donny 6 weeks ago. Finished down the field but did travel pretty well on its reappearance and wasn't totally unfancied. What appeals to me is the performances of those drawn on the wrong side of the track in future runs. Justonefortheroad, Pintura, Kyllachy Star, Pleasant Day and Breakheart have all run some tremendous races since and, if matching anything like their form, will take this easier assignment. Eased in grade, 1lb easing off mark and a furlong shorter all add to this ones chances and I think we'll see some very good money for this before it's run tomorrow evening.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Taking 1 more tonight. 20.30 Newmarket 2 NR's leave us with 10 for this 10f, Class 5 handicap and at 5/1 the field, it's very open. There's not that many with solid credentials and I think our selection here is nailed on to place as a minimum. Chain Of Events (6/1 William Hill BOG) - A really nice horse that I expect to win here. The price is reflective of its unfashionable trainer, not of the horses ability. In a 10 race season last term, this horse managed a 1st and a 2nd, and everything about this evening points to another run of those standards. Trotted up in a 10f maiden before starting his career in handicaps. Ran 2 solid races on its first 2 handicap starts, after being switched to its current stable, both over C&D finishing 4L and 1L behind the winner respectively off marks 7lb & 6lb higher than todays. Not only that but there were also in Class 3 races, this one is a Class 5. Hasn't shown much since but soft ground over 12f here, off a 9lb higher mark, was never ideal and then 3 runs on the AW which doesn't look to suit. Back on turf, off a career low mark, down in grade andat a track it has shown form at, I think a massive run is on the cards, provided the 190 day absence doesn't prove a negative.

[Tedthewolf]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Taking 1 more tonight. 20.30 Newmarket 2 NR's leave us with 10 for this 10f, Class 5 handicap and at 5/1 the field, it's very open. There's not that many with solid credentials and I think our selection here is nailed on to place as a minimum. Chain Of Events (6/1 William Hill BOG) - A really nice horse that I expect to win here. The price is reflective of its unfashionable trainer, not of the horses ability. In a 10 race season last term, this horse managed a 1st and a 2nd, and everything about this evening points to another run of those standards. Trotted up in a 10f maiden before starting his career in handicaps. Ran 2 solid races on its first 2 handicap starts, after being switched to its current stable, both over C&D finishing 4L and 1L behind the winner respectively off marks 7lb & 6lb higher than todays. Not only that but there were also in Class 3 races, this one is a Class 5. Hasn't shown much since but soft ground over 12f here, off a 9lb higher mark, was never ideal and then 3 runs on the AW which doesn't look to suit. Back on turf, off a career low mark, down in grade andat a track it has shown form at, I think a massive run is on the cards, provided the 190 day absence doesn't prove a negative.

:clap Very easy winner Russ returned 7/1

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Cheers Ted. After 5 straight losers with not even a place amongst them, I need this one. Trotted up too, a very easy 3.5L winner. Since the last update, 6 bets placed with 1 winner for a 8pt loss. Overall, still +78.51. Am away for the weekend but will put up full P/L soon:ok

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps it did win well russ, well done :clap

[Aykay1]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps :clap

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Last bet until Monday as I'm away for the weekend. 20.00 Hamilton 10 runners for this Class 5, 1m handicap and I'm opting for an outsider here. I don't like the fav, although could be supremely well handicapped, but not a fan of the jockey whilst Casino Night has to prove itself stepped up in grade. So this leaves me with Key Breeze (14/1 Paddy Power BOG) - Stable in top form at present and stable jockey takes the ride on this one for the first time tonight. Importantly, course form is important here and has a 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th for 4 tries here. Good or easier ground suits so the recent rain is a positive. Will have come on for its reappearance run when behind Euston Square over C&D. Raced a bit keen that day but still looked nailed on for a place until lack of fitness paid inside the distance, that won't be an issue today. Just a 4yo and still looks open to improvement so the fact it's last run was full of promise is a real positive. Distance is ideal too, as record over shorter than a mile reads 8 runs, never placed whilst at a mile or greater reads 2 wins, 1 place from 5 starts. There's no stand out opposition so, at a huge EW price in a smallish field and with course form, I'll take this one to go very close indeed.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Last bet until Monday as I'm away for the weekend. 20.00 Hamilton 10 runners for this Class 5, 1m handicap and I'm opting for an outsider here. I don't like the fav, although could be supremely well handicapped, but not a fan of the jockey whilst Casino Night has to prove itself stepped up in grade. So this leaves me with Key Breeze (14/1 Paddy Power BOG) - Stable in top form at present and stable jockey takes the ride on this one for the first time tonight. Importantly, course form is important here and has a 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th for 4 tries here. Good or easier ground suits so the recent rain is a positive. Will have come on for its reappearance run when behind Euston Square over C&D. Raced a bit keen that day but still looked nailed on for a place until lack of fitness paid inside the distance, that won't be an issue today. Just a 4yo and still looks open to improvement so the fact it's last run was full of promise is a real positive. Distance is ideal too, as record over shorter than a mile reads 8 runs, never placed whilst at a mile or greater reads 2 wins, 1 place from 5 starts. There's no stand out opposition so, at a huge EW price in a smallish field and with course form, I'll take this one to go very close indeed.

Agree Russ, backed this one last time out and couldnt believe he didnt place. Travelled nicely and with a decent pace and plenty of cover i think this one will go close. Only savered though as i've got a suspicion that a step up in trip may see further improvement.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Just taken the 16's with William Hill on Bollin Dolly, 7.40 Leicester tomorrow. Back with the write up shortly as this price will not last:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps The write up for tomorrow's bet. 7.40 Leicester A Class 4, 1m2f handicap with 10 runners. I don't think there's an outstanding shortie here so am definitely looking for the value as there's virtually nothing between any of them. I'm therefore taking the outsider of the lot. Bollin Dolly (16/1 William Hill BOG) - I've no idea how this has been priced up at 16's, I'm certain this will be half those odds come race time. Has the inside draw here which will help as it's a better horse racing prominently and this is a track where I like to see my charge at the fore. The key to its chances is the stables return to form but, more importantly, its very attractive looking handicap mark. I'll ignore both runs this term on accounts of fitness, mark and class. If we do put a line through those runs, this ain't a 16/1 shot. In 10 runs last term, she won twice and finished in the first 4 on 4 more occasions. Breaking that down further, form over this trip and in this grade reads 2 wins and 4 more top 4's from just 6 runs. Won off 71 and 77 last season so 74 is, without doubt, a mark she's capable of defying. Stable jockey on top, dropped in mark and class, good draw, race fit and C&D winner, I really fancy this one to return to form and defy it's massive odds.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Before tomorrow's bet (now backed into 8's), here's an update. 2011 Staked = 450.00pts Returned = 518.51pts Profit = +68.51pts Yield = +15.2% Bets = 45 Winners = 5 (11.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 14 (31.1% s/r) Weekly P/L 20/03 +96.25pts 27/03 +20.00pts 03/04 -49.12pts 10/04 -11.25pts 17/04 +00.63pts 24/04 +30.00pts 01/05 -10.00pts 08/05 -20.00pts 15/05 +12.00pts

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Just taken the 16's with William Hill on Bollin Dolly' date=' 7.40 Leicester tomorrow. Back with the write up shortly as this price will not last:ok[/quote'] good spot Russ, started 5/1 and came 3rd, ran a dfecent enough race but just couldnt repel those from behind.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Cheers Rob, 10p R4 but still pleased with that. 16's backed into 5's, just a shame it couldn't hold on. Onto tomorrow and 1 bet for me. 2.00 Nottingham Opening race on the card gives us a 3yo, Class 5 handicap over 6f with 14 runners. Looking over the market leaders, I really want to oppose. Bahia Emerald could be anything but did not impress with her attitude and the maiden she won was a poor affair so could be vulnerable. Is surely priced up purely on potential improvement alone. York Glory is a lto winner from a yard in hot form but draw is a real negative as is the trip. This one will be seen to be best effect when upped to a mile. Da Ponte has some decent form but I worry about the stable's wellbeing whilst the form figures of Celtic Sixpence looks good but again the form is suspect. Won at the tail end of last season in a poor event where her ability to dictate the pace made all the difference. This leaves me with the other runner under the 10/1 mark. Palais Glide (9/1 William Hill BOG) - From a top yard with stable jockey up top (1 of only 2 at the meeting), this one has plenty of experience and plenty of good bits of form that go with it. Has a decent middle berth so I'm happy with the draw whilst the step back up to 6f is definitely in her favour. 8 runs in her career, with a win, 4 2nds and 2 3rds, I'm hoping our charge can build on that here. Since switching to handicaps, following a maiden win at Lingfield, this horse has only ran in one 6f handicap, looking all over the winner when bounding clear at Kempton, only to be collared on the line by her stable companion. Only run on turf was here but over 5f and, if there was trouble to be found, this filly found it. Her restlessness in the stalls as well as the jockeys inexperience were contributory factors but the way she stayed on gives me plenty of hope that stronger handling and an extra furlong could make the difference. After a couple of tries in a higher grade, I think today sees our selection in the right grade, with a top jockey on board, from a nice draw and with the experience under her belt. Whilst some of the others look a little more unexposed, I do feel there's improvement to come from this one and 9's looks a brilliant EW price.

[Aykay1]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Good skills Russ :clap

[cc75]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Well done Russ - spot on mate and nice profits so far in 2011 :clap :ok