south_eastern_ram Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Agree entirely Russ, 16/1 a massive price, hoping this one will end my losing run as well :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps One more for today, probably a win bet in many peoples' eyes but I'll keep it EW for thread purposes & consistency. 4.45 Musselburgh With the fav taken out, I think there's a great opportunity for our selection in this 7f, Class 6 handicap, now with just 9 runners. Hellbender (4/1 Skybet) - I just cannot see this one being out of the mix in what is now a very weak looking heat. This horse has never won on turf but has shown more than enough form to figure and I think an ideal opportunity has been found to get off the mark. On what this horse has shown, another step back up to 7f is going to be right up its street as is the drop in grade and ease in mark. Not run over this trip in its last 3 but, previously, its last 7 runs in handicaps over this trip has resulted in form figures of 2-2-2-3-2-5-1. Has an in form jockey on its back and is facing some poor rivals. Only 1 rival has a mark as high, with the rest 7lb or greater lower down. Whilst some argue weight has a bearing, I genuinely feel that class will tell and I'm wary of taking any horse so far off top weight. A weak race, I expect to be collecting come 4.50pm today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted June 17, 2011 Share Posted June 17, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps I did fear the rain with Spirit Of Sharjah and i dont think it helped his chances, didnt travel too badly and wasnt beaten that far, possibly worth another go with quicker ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Quite frankly, this is terrible. Zero consistency at all and worst week of the season but it will click at some point. 2011 Staked = 770.00pts Returned = 863.72pts Profit = +93.72pts Yield = +12.2% Bets = 77 Winners = 8 (10.4% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 25 (32.5% s/r) Weekly P/L 20/03 +96.25pts 27/03 +20.00pts 03/04 -49.12pts 10/04 -11.25pts 17/04 +00.63pts 24/04 +30.00pts 01/05 -10.00pts 08/05 -20.00pts 15/05 +12.00pts 22/05 +35.65pts 29/05 -16.25pts 05/06 +82.25pts 12/06 -13.44pts 19/06 -63.00pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Bet for Monday. 6.40 Windsor 10f, Class 5 handicap with 13 lining up. I'm taking one from the head of the weights. On Khee (12/1 William Hill BOG) - If nothing else, this bet has to be taken because of the excellent jockey on top as well as the unbelievable form of the stable. On that alone, I think 12's is too big but the horse has decent enough form to suggest that this could be its day. Won on its only start here, albeit over a quarter of a mile further and on better ground but has also won over this trip on softish ground. Has looked in need of both its runs so far this term but is showing signs of improvement each time and I think it's primed to go close here. Is also entered in another race later in the week suggesting the trainer feels now's the time for the horse, and the 2lb ease in weights making it eligible for this 0-70 event is another huge plus. No problems with the draw, has best jockey at the track on board and is well handicapped so I'm certain this will go off a good few points shorter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Unlucky Russ, just couldn't maintain his finish. Great price though, started 4/1 fav... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 12/1 about a 4/1 shot, even though not a winner must be pleased on the price pinching Well done on the place at least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps took a pasting that one RUSS..well done with place..my spidey senses tell me you will put up Xpres Maite as a pick tomorrow although maybe will need run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizzkid walter Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Keep believing Russ. You don't achieve a 12.2% yield over 6 months for no reason. You'll be banging them in in no time. Once one goes in the floodgates will open. And the Shoe is starting to get dangerously well handicapped!!!!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Cheers guys:ok Aye, I've been looking at The Shoe, there's definitely a race in the old dog yet. One for tomorrow. 3.50 Salisbury A cracking 13 runner Class 2 1m handicap and I'm going with a potentially pattern class performer in this. Invincible Soul (10/1 William Hill BOG) - Top weight but has a great chance here from top yard with top jockey up top. Still lightly raced with just 1 win to its name but I feel it will add to that here. Other than a poor ride given to the horse by Eddie Ahern and an awful lto at Royal Ascot, this horse has some really solid form and, despite a rising mark, looks capable of securing its first handicap win. Has a nice draw too and I think the ground will be perfectly fine. Is entered up later in the week at Windsor for a listed event so is clearly well regarded. Lots of decent rivals in opposition but none as classy as this one and I'm happy to go EW at a double figure price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 3, 2011 Author Share Posted July 3, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Been working away for a few days now but back with one today. 3.15 Ayr 11 runner event here, this a lowly Class 6, 9f event. A really poor race and only one of these has matched to get its head in front in their last 6 starts and that's the one I'm siding with: Spavento (9/2 Victor Chandler BOG) - I think this is a good EW bet to nothing here. Has a poor win record of 1 from 34 but is still the only horse to win in its previous 6 outings. Despite its win rate, has 14 placed efforts which is pretty decent, whilst in this grade its record increases to 1 win and 2 placed from 4 races. Won its only race 2 months ago off 5lb lower and has run creditably in its 4 races since, albeit in higher grades and off higher marks (even than todays). I like the jockey booking, think the drop in grade is a big positive, stable is going ok and this longer trip is sure to suit. Ran a good race off 2lb higher recently at this track and the long straight is again in this ones favour. 9/2 is a fair price in a terrible heat and I feel this one will go very well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps And he's back with a bang! Won easily, well done :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Nicking the early 9/2 as well :clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KONG Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Back again! Well done!:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps The genius is back :notworthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 4, 2011 Author Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps One for tonight. 9.10 Windsor Last race on the card and it's a poor Class 6 event over 1m4f with 16 lining up. For me, these events are all about horses that know how to win so I'm concentrating on a horse that has recent winning form: Galiotto (6/1 William Hill BOG) - Top weight here but fully justified and is one of very few that has recent winning form. Has a top jockey on top who just loves this track and it's always worth noting when these 2 team up. In just 12 turf starts, has 2 wins and 3 places which is pretty good going in a 0-60 event, with the wins off 6lb and 4lb lower than today. Last win was just 2 starts ago off 54 (off 58 today) under this jockey when hacking up at Lingfield, 4.5L clear. Was clearly helped that day by a rival slipping up that day but Aines Delight, the horse in question, reopposes today off just 1lb better yet is shorter in the market. Without doubt, I'd rather have form in the book. I'm happy to ignore its last race, ridden in an amateurs event, and this one is much better judged on its penultimate race. Trainer only has 2 here tonight, the other being a 66/1 rag, so I'm pretty certain he'll fancy the chances of this one. Currently paying 4 places, I'm sure this one will go close and, at worst, looks a super EW bet to nothing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 4, 2011 Author Share Posted July 4, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Galiotto was poor but back with one for Tuesday. 3.00 Pontefract Just 11 runners for this Class 5, 10f handicap and, for me, it's a race with a fav to take on. Therefore, I'm EW on: Prince Apollo (8/1 William Hill BOG) - Like this ones chances with jockey riding extremely well at present. This horse has solid recent form, and has an excellent win record of 6 from 24. Since starting this years campaign, the horse has had tongue tie fitted all started and has form of 1-6-1-3-4-2-6, the 2 wins off marks 4lb & 5lb lower than todays. Having said that, has only raced twice in this grade this term, winning both times whilst the 5 defeats have all come off higher marks than this, albeit narrowly. Interestingly both 6th placed finishes have come over 'wrong' trips of 1m and 1m4f so back at 1m2f is ideal. Since coming to the UK (from France), has finished last of 15 on its first 10f start of a crazy high mark of 92 but since then, form has read 1-1-1-3-4-2. That's good enough for me and, in an open heat, I'll gladly take the offer of 8's. Big chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 9, 2011 Author Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Last couple have been poor. 2 for today, 1 of which is rather speculative. 3.15 York John Smiths Cup with 20 runners going to post for this Class 2 handicap over 10 furlongs. I'm taking one at a massive price who could easily bomb with the likes of Pekan Star and Green Destiny in the field. However, I'm sure it's worth the chance. Saptapadi (33/1 Betfred BOG 1/4 odds 5 places) - Fred is paying out on the first 5 home so I'll the price with him. This horse is 2nd top weight and has a wide draw but is no forlorn hope. Trainer is very shrewd indeed and in great form with 4 winners and 6 more in the frame for his last 16 runners. Is still pretty much lightly raced for a 5yo and, despite its mark of 105, I think the 3lb jockey claim makes this one appeal quite a bit at the weights. Has only won its maiden but has run well in a few group races including a G2 2nd to Akmal over a trip much further than this. The key could be the drop back to 10f as well as the change of stable. Travels well in its races and it may just be that trip has been the reason it hasn't won more. A big field and fast pace will ensure that this is run to suit and if stamina comes into play, then our charge has all the assets needed. Changed stables at the end of the last term and was purchased for a decent sum of 82,000 Gns, suggesting good things are expected. The ease in the ground is also a plus and, if they decide to come stands side the wide draw may be less of an issue that first thought. Should be a cracking race and I just hope our selection can do itself justice and go close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 9, 2011 Author Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2nd bet runs this evening. 7.35 Hamilton 1m3f Class 5 handicap with 11 runners and quite an interesting race with a few in with a chance. I'm siding with one of the more fancied runners in: Eltheeb (5/1 Boylesports BOG) - Has now drifted to a price looking like value and is an EW bet to nothing. Top weight here and deservedly so. Is a race that looks like this extra furlong will suit and the stiffish finish is another positive having run well twice recently at Pontefract. Won 2 starts ago off 4lb lower, staying on really well before having a terrible passage lto and finishing back in 4th. That day, the horse was not run to suit (the steady pace not helping) and by the time the horse saw daylight, the leaders had flown. Finished really well though suggesting that it was a tad unlucky not to be placed. Interesting that it's turned out again just 4 days later, trainer must think the horse is capable of winning again. Trainer, himself, is in decent nick too and he sends just one to the track tonight. I have real doubts over the market leaders, one up in grade and mark and the other with a poor run lto to put behind it as well as trip worries. Eltheeb is the solid selection and I'm very hopeful of a big run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 9, 2011 Author Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Going to take 1 more. 3.55 York 19 left in for this Class 3, 1m handicap and 13/2 the field makes this a very open event. A big field will ensure a fast pace and I want one that will stay the trip, especially with a bit of cut getting into the ground. Mirrored (16/1 Bet365 BOG) - Local trainer will want a runner at his home track and this one has a fantastic chance. Looked an excellent prospect as a 3yo, winning twice at this trip and placing 3 times in really competitive, top handicap, 2 off marks much higher than this. Last term was a bit of a write off but came back on its reappearance to win off 5lb lower than todays mark over 2f further. Last 2 runs not as good but in a grade that's probably too much for the horse nowadays. Also, I suspect Chester's tight turns weren't ideal lto. Stall 1 will be ideal today as will the long straight here. The slightly easier ground is another big plus too. Assuming the trip is still as suitable as it was, I'm convinced this horse has a much better chance than its 16/1 odds imply. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 9, 2011 Author Share Posted July 9, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 3.15 York John Smiths Cup with 20 runners going to post for this Class 2 handicap over 10 furlongs. I'm taking one at a massive price who could easily bomb with the likes of Pekan Star and Green Destiny in the field. However, I'm sure it's worth the chance. Saptapadi (33/1 Betfred BOG 1/4 odds 5 places) - Fred is paying out on the first 5 home so I'll the price with him. This horse is 2nd top weight and has a wide draw but is no forlorn hope. Trainer is very shrewd indeed and in great form with 4 winners and 6 more in the frame for his last 16 runners. Is still pretty much lightly raced for a 5yo and, despite its mark of 105, I think the 3lb jockey claim makes this one appeal quite a bit at the weights. Has only won its maiden but has run well in a few group races including a G2 2nd to Akmal over a trip much further than this. The key could be the drop back to 10f as well as the change of stable. Travels well in its races and it may just be that trip has been the reason it hasn't won more. A big field and fast pace will ensure that this is run to suit and if stamina comes into play, then our charge has all the assets needed. Changed stables at the end of the last term and was purchased for a decent sum of 82,000 Gns, suggesting good things are expected. The ease in the ground is also a plus and, if they decide to come stands side the wide draw may be less of an issue that first thought. Should be a cracking race and I just hope our selection can do itself justice and go close. Thanks Freddie:ok Saptapadi finishing with a wet sail to grab 5th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 10, 2011 Author Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2nd bet runs this evening. 7.35 Hamilton 1m3f Class 5 handicap with 11 runners and quite an interesting race with a few in with a chance. I'm siding with one of the more fancied runners in: Eltheeb (5/1 Boylesports BOG) - Has now drifted to a price looking like value and is an EW bet to nothing. Top weight here and deservedly so. Is a race that looks like this extra furlong will suit and the stiffish finish is another positive having run well twice recently at Pontefract. Won 2 starts ago off 4lb lower, staying on really well before having a terrible passage lto and finishing back in 4th. That day, the horse was not run to suit (the steady pace not helping) and by the time the horse saw daylight, the leaders had flown. Finished really well though suggesting that it was a tad unlucky not to be placed. Interesting that it's turned out again just 4 days later, trainer must think the horse is capable of winning again. Trainer, himself, is in decent nick too and he sends just one to the track tonight. I have real doubts over the market leaders, one up in grade and mark and the other with a poor run lto to put behind it as well as trip worries. Eltheeb is the solid selection and I'm very hopeful of a big run. Absolutely bolted up, won by almost 5L. Very pleased with that one to make it a cracking day. Mirrored disappointed, never really travelling and looking in need of further. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted July 10, 2011 Author Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Time for a profit update and things are back on the up after a very quiet period due, mainly, to work. Had a nice winner last Sunday to get me off the cold list but it was a relative shortie, taking the early 9/2. However, it's a winner and I'll take them no matter what the price. That was followed by 2 that really disappointed. Yesterday though was a much better day, Sabtapadi running a super race in 5th at 33/1 and would have finished a lot closer with a clear run, whilst Eltheeb hacked up in the evening race at Hamilton. Never looked in danger and when it got out, it bounded clear. The only disappointment was Mirrored who just never got into it. 2011 Staked = 850.00pts Returned = 1006.97pts Profit = +156.97pts Yield = +18.5% Bets = 85 Winners = 10 (11.8% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 29 (34.1% s/r) Weekly P/L 20/03 +96.25pts 27/03 +20.00pts 03/04 -49.12pts 10/04 -11.25pts 17/04 +00.63pts 24/04 +30.00pts 01/05 -10.00pts 08/05 -20.00pts 15/05 +12.00pts 22/05 +35.65pts 29/05 -16.25pts 05/06 +82.25pts 12/06 -13.44pts 19/06 -63.00pts 26/06 +00.00pts 03/07 +27.00pts 10/07 +36.25pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted July 10, 2011 Share Posted July 10, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Excellent work as usual Russ, Well Done :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Yes, I know the thread has been stop / start. I'm not going to make excuses, nor am I making any promises. I'll just get back to posting, starting with one tomorrow at the usual 5pts EW stake. 3.45 Lingfield A 14 runner field to finish the card, this is a competitive looking 7f, Class 6 handicap with 6 priced at 8's or less. It's from this group that I'm concentrating. I think Lastkingofscotland is a major danger now back at Lingfield & with Hayley back on top, but many of the others don't look particularly well handicapped and are paying for consistency. Therefore, I'll side with one with a sliding mark. Tourist (8/1 Bet365 BOG) - Formerly high class on AW, winning off 86 in its pomp 2 years ago. Now a 6yo, this one still retains some form and will be racing here off its lowest ever AW mark of just 65. That means a drop into Class 6 handicaps for the 1st time ever on the AW, and with the jockey taking off a further 5lb, conditions certainly look set for a big run. Since starting this years winter campaign, Tourist has run 4 times starting off with a win in a claimer over C&D under this jockey. On this track, a fast finisher usually holds an advantage so the way it finished that day, charging down the outside, gives us definite hope of a repeat. 3 runs since haven't been overly promising but I'm prepared to accept excuses. Slow pace next time up, followed by wrong trip / track when down the field at Southwell whilst it didn't get the run of the race lto at Wolverhampton, not always getting the clearest of runs. Is 2lb better off with Lastkingofscotland for 4L but, granted a better path as well as the jockeys claim, I think the form is reversable and at double the odds, it's the value pick. This track definitely suits better and I'm sure it'll run its race. Is entered up for 3 races this week so trainer certainly believes it's fit & capable of winning, let's hope it's in this one. Interestingly, the other 2 races are at Wolverhampton, one back up in grade at Class 5, the other over a trip too far of 9f, neither of which is best suited to the horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Yes, I know the thread has been stop / start. I'm not going to make excuses, nor am I making any promises. I'll just get back to posting, starting with one tomorrow at the usual 5pts EW stake. 3.45 Lingfield A 14 runner field to finish the card, this is a competitive looking 7f, Class 6 handicap with 6 priced at 8's or less. It's from this group that I'm concentrating. I think Lastkingofscotland is a major danger now back at Lingfield & with Hayley back on top, but many of the others don't look particularly well handicapped and are paying for consistency. Therefore, I'll side with one with a sliding mark. Tourist (8/1 Bet365 BOG) - Formerly high class on AW, winning off 86 in its pomp 2 years ago. Now a 6yo, this one still retains some form and will be racing here off its lowest ever AW mark of just 65. That means a drop into Class 6 handicaps for the 1st time ever on the AW, and with the jockey taking off a further 5lb, conditions certainly look set for a big run. Since starting this years winter campaign, Tourist has run 4 times starting off with a win in a claimer over C&D under this jockey. On this track, a fast finisher usually holds an advantage so the way it finished that day, charging down the outside, gives us definite hope of a repeat. 3 runs since haven't been overly promising but I'm prepared to accept excuses. Slow pace next time up, followed by wrong trip / track when down the field at Southwell whilst it didn't get the run of the race lto at Wolverhampton, not always getting the clearest of runs. Is 2lb better off with Lastkingofscotland for 4L but, granted a better path as well as the jockeys claim, I think the form is reversable and at double the odds, it's the value pick. This track definitely suits better and I'm sure it'll run its race. Is entered up for 3 races this week so trainer certainly believes it's fit & capable of winning, let's hope it's in this one. Interestingly, the other 2 races are at Wolverhampton, one back up in grade at Class 5, the other over a trip too far of 9f, neither of which is best suited to the horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps they let you out for xmas then Russ:cigar good luck matey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevsul Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps And back with a bang. :nana:nana:clap:clap:clap Well done Russ, another great price nicked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBoyRooney Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps well done russ:ok:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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