RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[Monterosso]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Brilliant call.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps well done russ :cow

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Cheers guys:ok Pleased with that one, won pretty well in the end with the Ryan horse probably better over another furlong and the Noseda horse being far from straightforward.

[BillyHills]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Nice winner Russ, well read:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps A couple of bets likely tomorrow with plenty of handicaps to get stuck into. I'm taking one very early as I think the price will disappear. Write up to follow. Rock My World (5.35 Haydock), 15/2 William Hill BOG

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 3 bets from my local track tomorrow. 1.50 Haydock 17 runners for this 10f Class 4 handicap and a bloody competitive heat it is, going 7/1 the field. Onyx of Arabia has big claims on its lto 2nd but I feel that race that Bourne won is a little overrated and I'm not keen with another 1lb to carry, whilst McBirney is lightly raced but unproven on turf. I do however like another one of the favourites and am taking this one. Silvery Moon (15/2 Bet365 BOG) - Another lightly raced type with just 5 runs under his belt but I think this one has lots in its favour. Stable is coming back into form and has fired in enough winners lately for that not to be a worry and stable jockey is up top. Showed promise in maidens last term, finishing inside the first 3 on 3 of its 4 runs, all at a mile or less. Stepped up to 10f on his return, this one ran a race full of promise beating 5L by Danderek in a much better heat than this, staying the trip very well indeed. Is sure to come on for that run and will appreciate the drop in grade too. This one is a big, long striding horse that looks just the type to keep improving with age and experience, whilst it now races on a track that I feel will suit the horse, being very flat and suiting galloping types. Is yet to get off the mark but I firmly believe that will change today. In my opinion, the price will tumble and this horse will start favourite come race time.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Bet 2. 4.00 Haydock Class 3, 1m handicap with 16 left in. No surprise if a further runner came out reducing it to 3 places but I'm backing one here because I think it will win, not just place. This is another open event and I think both the front 2 are opposable. She's A Character is up in grade and up steeply in mark, which wouldn't worry me too much had Hanagan been on whilst Tartan Trip is proving disappointing and may need some respite from the handicapper. This leaves me with my pick. Hacienda (11/1 William Hill BOG) - Top weight here and the class horse of the race, I'm liking the price on a horse that's just 8/1 elsewhere. Has a nice low draw and has enough form to take this race, especially hailing from a top stable that sends only one to the meeting and puts the stable jockey on board. Interesting too that the horse's record is 3 wins/1 2nd from 14 runs, but when this jockey is up the record reads a very impressive 2 wins/1 2nd from 4 runs. Is dropped in grade and eased 2lb in mark which could make all the difference today. Has only ever raced twice in a 0-90 handicap, record being 1 win/1 2nd. When stepped up in 0-95 company or higher, has finished unplaced in every one of his 9 starts. Form this year is in and out but with conditions ideal here, every chance of bouncing back. Went close on his seasonal reappearance off this mark before running a race full of promise at Sandown where the stiff finish didn't help. Poor effort lto which has over inflated his price today. Conditions to suit, track & trip ideal, low mark & grade, dangerous trainer/jockey, nice draw; all these things make 11/1 way too big and I expect this to be gambled on and start in single figures.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Bet 3. 5.35 Haydock 3yo, Class 4 handicap over 1m4f and I'm convinced this will be fought out between the favourites. The one I'm keen on is near the head of the betting. Rock My World (15/2 William Hill BOG) - Price taken earlier as posted above, now no bigger than 13/2. This one is very lightly raced, only 2 career runs so comes here with masses of potential. At 2yo, finished 2nd on its AW debut to a horse now rated 88 but the run that persuaded me to back her was its sole run last term, winning a maiden when stepped up to 11f. Travelled extremely well that day and I feel she was value for much more than the winning margin, especially as she pulled quite a bit. That race came after almost 12 months off so I'm not put off at all by the fact she's making her reappearance here. Likely to be suited by this flat track and will only improve for an extra furlong. Looked to be a potential decent type so could be thrown in off an opening mark of 77 against either exposed handicappers or ones that have taken a steep rise in mark. Is from a yard in top form so must come here with a massive chance. In my eyes, certain to go off favourite so let's hope she justifies the support.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Argh. Awful day. Silvery Moon declared a NR, Hacienda faded badly after seeming to travel well whilst Rock My World was a big disappointment after being backed off the boards this morning. Admittedly did get hampered pretty badly but no excuses, wouldn't have won:sad Back later with tomorrow's bets:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 3 bets for today. 4.50 York Class 3, 7f handicap with 14 runners at the Knavesmire. Baptist really could be anything but has it to prove off top weight whilst many of the other market leaders don't look particularly well treated. Common Touch is favourite judged on its win at the Dante meeting but I like one it had in behind that day. Iceblast (12/1 Betfred BOG) - Reopposes Common Touch on somewhere between 0-5lb dependent on how much value you put on Lee Topliss' claim. However, that aside, I still believe this one has improvement in him. Hacked up in a Class 5 by 3L and was put up 3 grades and 11lb for that run at York. However, recorded a further improved effort finishing 2L 3rd when staying on really well, all the way to the line, and looking likely to improve even further. Down in grade today too, and has first time blinkers on which could bring about that bit of extra improvement needed. Still lightly raced and, at 3 times the price of Common Touch, I'll put forward Iceblast as the value in the race. 12's is a very fair price and I believe that, back at this track, he'll be very difficult to keep out of the first 3. 5.15 Haydock Class 4, 14 runner, 1m handicap and an open heat it is. Jordaura looks a weak favourite here so it brings into play several with EW chances, including Fibs And Flannel who is steadily improving this term. The one I'm on is a cracking EW price too. Standpoint (11/1 Bet365 BOG) - I like its chances here now back in grade and eased 1lb in mark. Only has 1 win to his name but is a very consistent type and should run another great race with decent jock on top. Since being returned to turf, ran 3 times finishing in the frame twice off 1lb lower but then ran a super race last week finishing a close up 5th to Benandonner in a much better race than this. If that form stands up, I'd expect a big run here. Stable is in decent nick and this flat track should suit. Looking through past form, I'm pretty certain that 7f is a furlong short of his best and that this mile is ideal. Has speed figures to his name that suggest this mark is a very winnable one so at a big price, I'll support Standpoint here. 8.45 Newbury 14 runner, Class 5, 7f handicap. An open looking heat with several unexposed types heading the betting but none of which appeal massively to me. I prefer one with a few more miles on the clock. Bianca De Medici (11/1 Bet365 BOG) - Big price here for the top weight from a very dangerous trainer/jockey combo. This filly is a nice type, running well lto off this mark at Ascot but dropped 3 grades today. That could be significant. Back a furlong too which is also likely to suit, having won its only race over that trip and only being outclassed inside the last lto. Likes to race prominently and I'd hope this one can tuck behind the leaders and come clear inside the last, a more conventional flatter track expected to suit. Stable runs two in this so the fact stable jockey is on it is a pointer and, even more interesting, it's the only horse the jockey partners for his gaffer today. Not keen on many of her rivals today so I'm happy to be on EW at 11's here.

[Kaz21]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Any winners today?

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps One bet tomorrow, post reasoning shortly after I've done P/L update. Indieslad, 7.30 Thirsk, 8/1 Bet365 BOG:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Profitable week this week after a couple of good bets at the start of the week. 2 poor days though towards the end took the edge of it but still pretty pleased with how it's going, the last 2 weeks both being winning ones. Won't be around much this week, off to Atlanta tomorrow with work, back on Friday:ok 2011 Staked = 520.00pts Returned = 624.16pts Profit = +104.16pts Yield = +20.0% Bets = 52 Winners = 6 (11.5% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 17 (32.7% s/r) Weekly P/L 20/03 +96.25pts 27/03 +20.00pts 03/04 -49.12pts 10/04 -11.25pts 17/04 +00.63pts 24/04 +30.00pts 01/05 -10.00pts 08/05 -20.00pts 15/05 +12.00pts 22/05 +35.65pts

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Bet for Monday. 7.30 Thirsk 3yo handicap, Class 4 over 6f with 11 runners. I want to oppose the top one, Take Your Partner, who's unbeaten in the last 4, now looking badly handicapped and back on turf. I'll also take on any horses making their seasonal reappearance so that rules out Fieldgunner Kirkup, Breezolini and Lady Royale whilst Another Wise Kid, Black Annis Bower and Homeboy have it all to do off their current mark. Of the 4 remaining, I'll take one that is fancied but still available at a nice EW price. Indieslad (8/1 Bet365 BOG) - Currently 5th fav but I expect those odds to shorten overnight as this one looks an ideal type to take this heat. From an unfashionable stable but one which has had 3 winners from its last 10 runners, 2 of those with today's excellent jockey on board. Showed plenty of promise at 2, running very well twice here at Thirsk over an inadequate 5f before finishing a decent midfield to Wootton Bassett at the Knavesmire when again staying on very well. Then he ran 2 more super races to finish off his season including a debut win over the stiff Beverley 5f, again looking like 6f would be his trip. Started this term with an excellent 7th here over 5f (again staying on very well), that run can be upgraded as it was his seasonal reappearance and was drawn on the wrong side of the track (box 2 of 16). The first 3 drawn 12, 15 & 16. Stepped up on that effort lto when down 2lb to this mark, down in grade to todays and up a furlong, finishing a very close up 3rd. Back to his favourite track with a super jockey on board, I really think that 8's is way too big here and I'm happy to be on EW.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Eek, last one was awful. One bet for Saturday. 4.05 Haydock Class 3, 3yo handicap over 7f with 12 runners. The two at the head of the market are understandable but both are opposable. Western Aristocrat is 1 from 1 but inexperience could play a part and I'm not certain how this faster ground will suit. Whaileyy hails from a top yard and that's impacted its price but I'm not convinced it has done anything of note. The one I'll be on is the other horse in the top 3 in the betting. Rhythm of Light (7/1 SportingBet) - Stable in rude health at present and that's almost recommendation itself for a bet. I'll just give you some stats for this trainer/jockey combo over the last fortnight...15 runs, with 7 wins and 3 2nds. That amazing stat improves when we narrow it down to 3yo handicaps, with a 100% 4 from 4 record. Admittedly, this horse is up 11lb from lto but the way it won that day and the speed figure she recorded makes it more than possible this filly can progress. Won her debut here at 20/1 last term over 6f on good/soft but then ran 3 flatish races, where I blame trip and ground. Over 7f, a specialist distance, and on top of the ground, this is a horse going place. Was badly hampered when winning at Newbury 2 weeks ago but travelled and quickened well, suggesting she will be able to build on that run. I'm not certain this is such a hot race so I'll take Rhythm of Light to strike and improve the record of this in form yard.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps :wall Beaten by a nostril even though I'm convinced she won. The initial photo looked like we'd landed the spoils but not to be. Let's hope for a reversal of fortune tomorrow, where I'm taking one early. 3.50 Nottingham A Class 5, 1m handicap for 3yo's only and 10 runners are in competition for the D'Oh Simpsons Handicap. Generally, you've got to be looking for an unexposed horse that is expected to find some improvement and that's what I'll be doing. I'm opposing Shadow Catcher who ran flat lto and looked very one paced whilst One Pursuit had good form figures but needs to step up on efforts at Southwell. Ferruccio is too short for what it's achieved and, despite a tardy start lto, wasn't unlucky and might just prove to be a frustrating sort. The danger might just be My Mate Jake but I ain't a fan of either the trainer or jockey. It leaves me with the favourite but a bet I'm still happy to take. Matavia Bay (4/1 Bet365) - Favourite here but getting on early as I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go off half these odds. Hails from a shrewd yard and has a top jockey on board which is interesting as he replaces the 5lb claimer who's been on board the last twice. Has had 2 times this term, finishing 2nd off 2lb lower and 3rd off this mark but there's lots to suggest that he will step up again. On his seasonal reappearance, he ran a cracker finishing a head 2nd where the front were covered by less than a length. Of the 4, I took my selection from the race as the other 3 were held up in a race suiting those coming from off the pace, whilst it's inability to handle the Haydock did him no good either. Raised 2lb for that, he was then 4L 3rd in a Kempton handicap on the sand. Off the final turn, our horse kicked 3L clear and looked to be holding on until one came out of the clouds and forged clear. Was only denied 2nd on the line but nothing else could get close so I was delighted with that run and felt that a more experience jockey could have secured a better placing. Travels extremely well in his races and still has bags to speed with an ability to quicken. Plenty of pace on here which will suit and I see this as a cracking bet even at the price. Almost an EW to nothing, although at 1/5 odds, we'd see a small loss if the horse only placed. Not often I take a very short one but this looks a super bet.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Ah well, sh1t happens. Matavia Bay broke a blood vessel and folded tamely. One of tomorrow. 3.40 Hamilton 6f, Class 5 handicap with 11 runners and I'm favouring one of the outsiders. There has to be doubts over Supreme Spirit who lost at odds on lto whilst Ingleby Arch is better at Southwell & regular pilot jumps ship. Klynch is the hot fav but 3 wins have seen his mark rise sharply and doubts with new jockey up top. It leaves me with a horse in double figures. Jobe (11/1 William Hill BOG) - On his 2yo form, this one would win with me riding it!! But since then, his form has tailed right off but, in my opinion, has raced 3 times this year showing plenty of potential that a win could be just around the corner. Back in 2008, finished 3rd in the Gimcrack and was only 5L back in the Middle Park. After starting with an opening mark in the 100's, Jobe started this term off just 82 but after 3 runs has been dropped a further 8lbs to 74, now facing a 0-75 for the first time. In each of his 3 runs this term, has stayed on really well and was going on at the finish. Ripon was the venue for the first 2 runs, a course that strongly favours front runners so I'm not too disheartened by the midfield finishes whilst he was slowly away at Doncaster, was switched to the rail but finished really well. I'm not certain he needs an extra furlong but this stiffer track is most definitely in his favour, having faced easy tracks so far in 2011. The juice in the ground is another huge plus too, with him having recorded a win 2 years ago over C&D on good to soft. Conditions therefore are ideal, with softish ground and best trip of 6f. Stable is in cracking form too so that just adds to this ones' prospects. 11's is way too big and I'm really hopeful of this one returning to form and visiting the winners enclosure for the first time since 2009.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

One of tomorrow. 3.40 Hamilton 6f, Class 5 handicap with 11 runners and I'm favouring one of the outsiders. There has to be doubts over Supreme Spirit who lost at odds on lto whilst Ingleby Arch is better at Southwell & regular pilot jumps ship. Klynch is the hot fav but 3 wins have seen his mark rise sharply and doubts with new jockey up top. It leaves me with a horse in double figures. Jobe (11/1 William Hill BOG) - On his 2yo form, this one would win with me riding it!! But since then, his form has tailed right off but, in my opinion, has raced 3 times this year showing plenty of potential that a win could be just around the corner. Back in 2008, finished 3rd in the Gimcrack and was only 5L back in the Middle Park. After starting with an opening mark in the 100's, Jobe started this term off just 82 but after 3 runs has been dropped a further 8lbs to 74, now facing a 0-75 for the first time. In each of his 3 runs this term, has stayed on really well and was going on at the finish. Ripon was the venue for the first 2 runs, a course that strongly favours front runners so I'm not too disheartened by the midfield finishes whilst he was slowly away at Doncaster, was switched to the rail but finished really well. I'm not certain he needs an extra furlong but this stiffer track is most definitely in his favour, having faced easy tracks so far in 2011. The juice in the ground is another huge plus too, with him having recorded a win 2 years ago over C&D on good to soft. Conditions therefore are ideal, with softish ground and best trip of 6f. Stable is in cracking form too so that just adds to this ones' prospects. 11's is way too big and I'm really hopeful of this one returning to form and visiting the winners enclosure for the first time since 2009.

Perfect. Broke well and never in doubt, trotted up by almost 4L:ok

[ballyoisin_bomb]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Perfect. Broke well and never in doubt' date=' trotted up by almost 4L:ok[/quote'] walked into bookies on my way home. intended backing klynch heavily and did just that but backed jobe and frequency each way and was overjoyed when i realised they came 1-2. dissapointed with the fav..dunno what went wrong, he just didnt want to run

[Boulder5111]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps superb stuff Russ - well done :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Cheers guys:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps After a winner today, I'll take one tomorrow. 5.25 Epsom Oaks day where the closing race is a 3yo, Class 2 handicap over 7f with a field of 11 in opposition. This is far more open than the market would have us believe and I think there are valid reasons for seeking out the value. Fityaan has only won a maiden and, on the form shown last term, is no certainty to follow whilst Cloud Rock doesn't appeal from a yard finding winners hard to come by. Robert The Painter has an extra furlong to travel, doesn't look that well handicapped and is too short in the betting when its only win came in a 2K maiden at Redcar. Even though the price is massive, I'm favouring one of the others. Sonning Rose (33/1 Ladbrokes) - I have no idea where this price comes from. Ok, so her recent form is nothing to write home about but this horse has definite ability and in a race where I have question marks over every horse, I think the EW odds available on this horse in an 11 runner race is too tempting to overlook. Stable is in form and a positive jockey booking, she will be suited by the step back to 7f and should also appreciate this sharp track, with her being a speedy filly. 2nd in the Chesham less than 12 months back proves this horse has plenty of ability and a return to that form will see her back in the winners enclosure. Since that race, she's plied her trade in Listed and Group company and, although she's not been at the business end much, she has in fact recorded some very decent speed figures, ones that show her to be well handicapped. Her first venture into handicap company was in the Silver Bowl at Haydock recently, a very tough opening assignment. She showed up well for a long way that day but found 8f too far and, after holding a chance 2f out, folded tamely to finish 3 from the back. This race is much easier and a 5lb drop in mark is another added bonus. Undoubtedly, she has to improve on recent efforts but everything is in place for this to be her day; ground will hold no concerns and a speedy filly at Epsom is ideal on such a speed favouring track. I'm convinced 7f will prove to be her best trip and, despite this being a Class 2, it's not a great race. I could be made to look stupid taking this bet but at such a huge price, I'm happy to take the chance.

[BillyHills]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Good luck mate, nice one today:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Taking 1 more bet. 5.15 Catterick 1 NR leaves us with 12 for this Class 5, 7f handicap at the tight left handed track that is Catterick. Cyflymder has a rapidly dropping mark but I'm still not certain it's ready to strike whilst Powerful Presence may struggle on this ground. I'll take one in double figures as my EW alternative. Ellies Image (11/1 Bet365 BOG) - Has a perfect draw in the 1 box and ideal profile for a Catterick runner in that she likes to race prominently. Is 3 from 4 at this track, the only poor run when stone last on softer ground than todays when breaking slowly too. The other 3 wins have all come on good/firm ground, as today, including 2 handicap wins off 58 and 60 (races off 60 today). In the last 12 month, this horse has raced 10 times and some interesting stats are evident; no shows in all 4 runs over 8f as well as a no show on the AW. Of the other 5 (all 7f on turf), won 3 over this C&D, last in the other C&D run (as explained above) but that was off a career high of 66 and placed in the other at 20/1 off todays mark. Everything suggests to me that trainer has been running her over the wrong trip just to get her handicap mark to a winning level. Now everything is in her favour, I'll take this one to make it 4 from 5 at the track, at a vastly overpriced 11/1.

[BillyHills]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Not sure how that finished 3rd Russ, makes up for all those 4ths eh!!:lol :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Yeah:lol. Stayed on from miles back to snatch 3rd. Nice price of 33's too. I'll take it as I've been denied in the odd photo or too lately and have a few 4ths on the CV too. The other one, Ellies Image, broke slowly and was never really travelling. Disappointing but still a tidy profit on the day. Thanks for the support, Graham:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps First bet for tomorrow, with a 2nd bet likely to follow in the morning. 5.25 Epsom Waiting for the last race to strike a bet at Epsom on Derby Day, this race is a 17 runner, Class 2, 6f cavalry charge. There's definitely a 'type' to look for in this event, with progressive horses usually holding sway. I'm on one of the market leaders, yet it's still available at a super EW price. Fireback (10/1 William Hill BOG) - Importantly, this horse has everything in its favour today. Drawn low enough in stall 9 to get a good early position which is crucial in this race, whilst a prominent racing style is also a bonus. This one races up with the pace and is equally adept making the running or sitting in just behind. A 4yo that's quite lightly raced, I'm convinced there's more to come from this horse. He's raced at anything from 6f-1m and the trainer firmly believes a strongly run 6f is what he wants. It is also what he will get here. Won a 62K handicap off 4lb last summer at Newmarket staying on really well but has struggled since. A combination of mark, trip and ground hasn't helped, whilst he showed promise on his reappearance in a very hot heat before the lack of a recent run found him out. That will have put our selection spot on for this and a further 1lb ease in the weights can only help. The final positive is the stable form, with 4 winners from its last 10 runners, the other 6 all finishing inside the first 4. Trainer/jockey combo is also in hot form with 3 wins/1 2nd from its last 5 runners. Has an awful lot in his favour tomorrow so I'll take very generous EW odds of 10/1 in the hope we can finish the Derby meeting with a flourish.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2nd bet for today. 3.55 Doncaster Moving away from Epsom for a bet in this 10 runner, Class 4, 1m4f handicap. We do have a warm favourite but a stiff rise in weights could find this one out. If it does, then the others look pretty evenly matched so I'm more than happy to take one of the big priced outsiders. Cloudy Bay (20/1 Betfred BOG) - Very lightly raced with this 4yo only seeing a racecourse for the first time back in Feb this year. 6 races in and this one is still a maiden but I've seen more than enough to suggest a win is just around the corner. The biggest question mark is trip, with many believing he will struggle but Donny is an easy track and this horse has run twice over this distance and, in his other races, has been staying on well. After spins on the AW and over in France, has shown some form in his last 3 races. Close up 3rd in a claimer when he had masses to find at the weights, a race full of promise. Was then 1L 2nd in a seller, the front 2 pulling miles clear and this one recorded a Topspeed figure of 80 that day (races off 77 today). Was then pitched into a really tough handicap and finished 5L 6th in a much better event than this. Other than the fact the race didn't suit our charge (as the race was set up for hold up types), I noted the lack of use of the whip. The horse was handled very tenderly and I firmly believe he would have finished a few lengths closer ridden with a bit more force. Therefore, a drop in class as well as a 3lb ease in weights could make all the difference today. Add in the new jockeys 3lb claim and we could be looking at a very well handicapped horse today. Admittedly, he has a bit to prove and has to conclusively prove his stamina but, at a huge price, I'm happy to take that risk.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Final bet for today. 2.20 Doncaster Slightly risky bet with a bare 8 going to post but I've just got to take this bet in a Class 2, 1m handicap. The 2 at the head of the market are Shamdarley and Chef but I want to oppose them. Shamdarley is a lto winner but I'm worried over grade, mark and ground. Chef could be anything but has a tough mark to overcome and may prove better over further. I'm opposing with one at EW odds. Mubtadi (7/1 Bet365 BOG) - A bigger price than I was expecting on this one, so I'll take it confident in the fact I believe it will be placed at least. Lightly raced 3yo with 5 runs to his name, including 1 victory. On the face of it, that form ain't the greatest on offer but delving deeper, I think his claims are sound. After 3 runs last term, started this year off a mark of 83 and ran a very promising race, 3L in 5th in a hot heat at HQ. I felt this was a top run and that he'd had gone much closer if it wasn't for this being his reappearance run. 4 of his rivals that days have run since, 3 of them winning nto proving the strength of the race. Amongst them is Crown Counsel, a rival today, but our horse is 7lb better for a short head. Mubtadi then took in the Silver Bowl at Haydock and finished well back in 12th. Having said that, he looked in with a great shout 2f out so I saw enough to suggest he retains his form. Add to that everything was against him that day; raced far side in the straight (a massive disadvantage), ground was easier than he likes and the fact that he struggled to fully see out the trip due to the ground (prefers fast) and the very strong headwind the horses were running into. This easy mile on quick ground will be ideal today. Of the 4 Silver Bowl runners in todays race, this one was definitely the one to take out of the race and, of the 4, he's the only one whose mark has been changed. Amazingly (and most welcoming), he's down 2lb. Last thing in his favour is stable form; his first 6 runners for over a week all ran yesterday with winners at 8/1 and 4/1, 2nd's at 16/1 and 14/1, a 4th of 18 at 33's and 1 unplaced. His trainer also came out on Thursday (before those 6 ran yesterday) and said he felt Mubtadi was his best chance over the next few days. If that proves to be right, then 7/1 is huge and I'm happy to get on.

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Good Luck today Russ, Shall take all 3 in a EW Trixie:ok As regards Rhythm been beaten a Nose, we was at the track as you know, and I swore it also got up on the line.