RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[kevsul]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Final bet for today. 2.20 Doncaster Slightly risky bet with a bare 8 going to post but I've just got to take this bet in a Class 2, 1m handicap. The 2 at the head of the market are Shamdarley and Chef but I want to oppose them. Shamdarley is a lto winner but I'm worried over grade, mark and ground. Chef could be anything but has a tough mark to overcome and may prove better over further. I'm opposing with one at EW odds. Mubtadi (7/1 Bet365 BOG) - A bigger price than I was expecting on this one, so I'll take it confident in the fact I believe it will be placed at least. Lightly raced 3yo with 5 runs to his name, including 1 victory. On the face of it, that form ain't the greatest on offer but delving deeper, I think his claims are sound. After 3 runs last term, started this year off a mark of 83 and ran a very promising race, 3L in 5th in a hot heat at HQ. I felt this was a top run and that he'd had gone much closer if it wasn't for this being his reappearance run. 4 of his rivals that days have run since, 3 of them winning nto proving the strength of the race. Amongst them is Crown Counsel, a rival today, but our horse is 7lb better for a short head. Mubtadi then took in the Silver Bowl at Haydock and finished well back in 12th. Having said that, he looked in with a great shout 2f out so I saw enough to suggest he retains his form. Add to that everything was against him that day; raced far side in the straight (a massive disadvantage), ground was easier than he likes and the fact that he struggled to fully see out the trip due to the ground (prefers fast) and the very strong headwind the horses were running into. This easy mile on quick ground will be ideal today. Of the 4 Silver Bowl runners in todays race, this one was definitely the one to take out of the race and, of the 4, he's the only one whose mark has been changed. Amazingly (and most welcoming), he's down 2lb. Last thing in his favour is stable form; his first 6 runners for over a week all ran yesterday with winners at 8/1 and 4/1, 2nd's at 16/1 and 14/1, a 4th of 18 at 33's and 1 unplaced. His trainer also came out on Thursday (before those 6 ran yesterday) and said he felt Mubtadi was his best chance over the next few days. If that proves to be right, then 7/1 is huge and I'm happy to get on.

Beaten a Head :wall

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2 places today. Mubtadi pulled well clear of his rivals with the exception of Chef who won by a head whilst Fireback ran a good race but just couldn't get to the leader. The big priced Cloudy Bay led but folded badly. Almost broke even on the day, but for a 10p R4 in Fireback's race. Time for an update as there's no flat racing tomorrow. 2011 Staked = 610.00pts Returned = 780.16pts Profit = +170.16pts Yield = +27.9% Bets = 61 Winners = 7 (11.5% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 22 (36.1% s/r) Weekly P/L 20/03 +96.25pts 27/03 +20.00pts 03/04 -49.12pts 10/04 -11.25pts 17/04 +00.63pts 24/04 +30.00pts 01/05 -10.00pts 08/05 -20.00pts 15/05 +12.00pts 22/05 +35.65pts 29/05 -16.25pts 05/06 +82.25pts

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Going well mate, good work, Jobe could be called the winner miles out :clap Had a few cheeky quid on the Shoe today, what have you started now, everytime the bleeding thing runs I'm gonna feel obliged to. :)

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Had a few cheeky quid on the Shoe today' date=' what have you started now, everytime the bleeding thing runs I'm gonna feel obliged to. :)[/quote'] :lol:lol:lol I left it well alone. Noticed it had move stables from Whillans to Semple, which puts me off a little:sad

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Poor days racing tomorrow so instead I've been looking at a couple of antepost bets. Royal Hunt Cup 1m charge down the straight track at Ascot and you have to be looking for a progressive type that should prove Group class. This strongly leads me to one horse. Green Destiny (9/1 William Hill 1/4 odds 1-4) - Currently vying for favouritism but, in my opinion, justifiably so and I expect this one will go off a few points shorter come the day. Just a 4yo with 4 races under his belt and is clearly a horse heading for bigger and better things. Was held in high regard even before his debut last year, entered for the King Edward VII. Never raced in that after a debut on the AW, finishing midfield showing signs of greeness but has progressed rapidly since, winning its next 2 starts as a 3yo. Reappeared at HQ off 87 in a 9f handicap and trotted up by almost 4L, quickening up in the manner of a future Listed race performer. Has taken a hike in the weights but I think his rate of improvement is that greater that this mark won't be enough to stop this one. Not certain who will take the ride just yet but I'm not worried about that. Has the right profile for the race, goes on any ground and hails from a top yard so, despite being just 9/1 10 days before the race, I'm more than happy to play. Wokingham Handicap A few days after the Hunt Cup sees the annual 6f cavalry charge and again I want to be on a progressive animal. Again, one horse catches my eye. Victoire De Lyphar (16/1 Coral 1/4 odds 1-4) - A very impressive horse and one that will be racing in Group company by the end of this season. Didn't do much as a 2yo but then moved to a top sprinting yard and has looked different class since. As a 3yo, he took a couple of handicaps early doors including a £100K event at York when winning comfortably off 90. Its next 2 races were off marks of 97 and 101 but even that wasn't enough to prevent this horse from going well, finishing 2nd in both the Stewards Cup and the Ayr Gold Cup. Impressive form indeed. Finished 4th of 5 behind the top class Bated Breath on his seasonal reappearance but needs a bigger field to show his best and will have come on bundles for that run. Races off 103 now and I think that mark is well within his grasp. Does have form at 7f which helps in these big field 6f handicaps, and Ascot is quite a stiff track which should suit better than both Goodwood and Ayr where he lost out narrowly in those big handicaps. Loads in his favour and I think this horse has a major chance of landing this.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps How about the Shoe to beat Frankel?! I've heard (well I haven't but I'm making it up for the sake of entertainment) that the new connections are lining him up for a late bid at The St James' Palace at Royal Ascot. They think he's nailed on to beat Frankel!!!

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps :lol @ Wizzkid. First bet for tomorrow. 5.30 Salisbury Class 5, 12f handicap with 12 runners and I'm particularly sweet on one, albeit at a shortish price. I want to oppose Filun and Danvilla, who despite 1's next to their names, look to have it all to do with conditions not expected to suit. I prefer the other market leader. Phonic (5/1 William Hill BOG) - I can't see this one being out of the mix here so am happy to take the price. 4yo with just 4 races in his short career and more than enough promise has been shown to make this a nice bet. As a 2yo, he did finish 3rd to Wigmore Hall which is impressive enough but that was 2 years ago. Off the track all last year before a very promising reappearance at Newbury a month ago. Finished just under 5L back in 8th in a 15 runner race but that was a solid performance with fitness to prove and with the race not being run to suit. A very steady pace ensued that day and our horse was held up which didn't help. Interestingly, of the 9 horses that pulled clear, 6 were held up and 4 of them have run since with 2 winning and 2 2nd next time out. Phonic stayed on very resolutely in the straight and looked to have a turn of foot which is a nice attribute to have as a middle distance horse. Mark remains unchanged but the extra quarter of a mile can only be seen as an advantage. Comes from a yard very adept with his middle distance animals and I think this one could progress into yet another. Open to any amount of improvement, this lightly raced horse could prove to be very leniently handicapped and is my confident selection.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2nd bet for tomorrow. 3.00 Redcar 3yo, Class 5 handicap over 7f with 15 doing battle. Despite the big field, I think that many of these can be easily written off and think the 4 or 5 in the betting will fight this out. I'm on one of those. Maggie Mey (13/2 Boylesports BOG) - Loads in this one's favour today. Firstly, she hails from one of the most in form yards at present and is ridden by a jockey boasting an amazing strike rate of 8 winners from his last 12 rides. This horse has 2 wins from 9 career starts and is a capable performer that could prove a bit better than her current mark. Has a win at this track, albeit over a furlong shorter and has some very solid 2yo handicap form from last term in better company than this. The one doubt people are citing is her ability to stay 7f. Quite frankly, I ain't worried as there are excuses for her performances at that distance. On her last start in 2010, finished 8th of 15 but was badly hampered 1f out and would have finished a lot closer, that was in a race 3 grades higher than todays (and off a 2lb higher mark). She needed her seasonal reappearance so again I'll overlook her last 7f run. Was stepped back to 6f lto but was outpaced and then stayed on best of all finishing like a train and that suggested a step back up to 7f was in order. Dropped 2lb for that run and in a grade I firmly believe she can win in. This track suits prominent racers so our selection fits the bill, and the fact all the pace is low is another plus (our charge comes out of box 5). With stable in rude health, jockey in the form of his life, great draw and excellent mark, I feel this one will be bang there at the finish.

[Aykay1]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Nice winner Russ!

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps well done russ, nice price also

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Maggie Mey won today so am pleased with that. Phonic ran an absolute shocker. A nice profit made though, even with the 10p R4 on the winner. One for tomorrow. 4.20 Haydock This looks a cracking Class 4 handicap over 1m. 11 go to post and, looking through the field, there's quite a few I'm happy to bypass. I'm taking one of the fancied ones, albeit at an early EW price. Sir George (7/1 William Hill BOG) - Looks to hold leading claims here. Drawn well in a low box, 4, and today he races off an attractive mark. He's a really consistent type, having been in the first 2 in 14 of his 27 career starts, including 6 wins. Last win was in August last year off 1lb lower but has not really shone since but I'm convinced his mark was too high. Started this season off 87 and ran a promising race in the Spring Mile behind Eton Forever and Dance & Dance. Then he took in a hot Class 3 event at Ripon, finished midfield off that same mark. Was then dropped 2lb for a close up 3rd at Thirsk over this trip when holding every chance inside the distance, that race back in this grade for this first time in 7 runs. I can easily ignore his last run when badly hampered 4f out on the bend at Catterick before staying on well but finding 7f too short. For this run, he's been dropped another 2lb now making him well handicapped and has plenty of other factors in his favour. Is a resolute galloper so this galloping track will suit (1 from 1 here), certainly better than the sharp tracks he's been on lately. Stable is going well too and regular jockey now replaced by a top jockey, a sure sign the horse is ready to strike. Turf record in handicaps this grade & below reads 1 win/6 places from 7 runs as opposed to 1 win/1 placed for 7 runs in higher grades. All in all, I feel a big run is on the cards and am happy to take the early 7's available.

[BillyHills]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Good luck Russ, think its the first time ever we have been on the same nag:lol By the way Haydock is quite sharp nowadays, not the stamina, galloping track it once was, still better than Catterick though!

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Good luck Russ' date=' think its the first time ever we have been on the same nag:lol[/quote'] Thanks Graham:ok But never again:lol:lol Ran a poor race, I felt, with no apparent excuses. Ah well, onwards & upwards:hope

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps One for tomorrow. 8.20 Haydock Just 9 runners for this Class 5, 7f handicap at my local track and, provided we're paying 3 places and they all stand their ground, I've found a nice little bet. Barista (6/1 William Hill BOG) - I'm getting on this one early as I don't see the price being around too long. This represents a drop in class after running well in higher grades and with the 1lb ease in the weights, I'm sure this one will be winning very soon indeed. As last time, has a very capable and in form 7lb claimer on top so that's a plus for his handicap mark. Was 5L behind Western Aristocrat lto but ran on really well on ground too fast, that was also a very hot race indeed. Is racing over his best trip but, of more interest, is the fact that the rain will have gotten into the ground and this horse is unbeaten in this country on ground softer than good (2 from 2). His only reverse was on heavy at Saint Cloud in listed company; remember, this is a Class 4 handicap. Has a turn of foot and is a 3yo still open to improvement despite the miles on his clock. Seems ready to strike on the account of the 3 entries the horse holds over the next 3 days, the other 2 declarations being in hotter heats than this suggesting that he's well regarded and connections are taking the easier option to resume winning ways. Isn't a massive price but big enough to recommend an EW bet, I think this one will reward our patience of having to wait until late tomorrow night until our only bet of the day.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps There may be a few bets tomorrow so I'll post them up as I see them. Write ups may follow. First bet is Absinthe (3.55 Chester), taking the 15/2 Paddy Power BOG:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 3.55 Chester Class 2, 10f handicap around the tighest track in the country and we have 13 lining up. At 5/1 the field, this looks an opening look heat and I'm taking one of the more fancied horses. Absinthe (15/2 >Paddy Power BOG) - Firstly, let me get the negative out of the way...it's this horses' first try at the track so has it to prove around here. Otherwise, I think conditions really suit our charge. Hails from an in form yard and is his only runner at the track, a tip in itself. Last year, had some really top form to his name culminating in a good run in the Cambridgeshire. Has a turn of foot which will help around here and is now handicapped extremely well. Dropped 5lb from seasonal reappearance and excellent claimer takes a further 3lb off, effectively bringing this horse back down to his last winning mark. Over best trip and ground will suit, there is lots in the favour of this very well handicapped horse. Needed his reappearance run and should strip a whole lot fitter. Very lightly raced for a 5yo suggesting there's plenty of improvement left in him. Whilst there's a few in with chances, there's nothing anywhere near as well handicapped so at 15/2, I'm happy to have a few quid EW.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2nd bet for today. 5.30 York 4 places being paid here as 20 face the starter in this Class 4, 6f sprint handicap on the Knavesmire. 13/2 the field so plenty of EW value on offer and I'm going for one at double figure odds. Bond Fastrac (12/1 Betfred BOG) - Still just a 4yo and has a decent race in him, I'm certain of that. The horse was rated up in the 90's which has made life difficult for a season now but has plummeted in the weights and there have been recent signs that a return to form is on the cards. Races off 73, having started last season off 92 and this season off 75. In his 2yo days, won a maiden over this trip at 16's before finishing a short head runner up in C&D Class 2 handicap off 85. That form would be good enough here. Showed nothing in 5 races last year but, as mentioned, I'm happy to ignore that. Since returning this year, has twice run 5th off 2lb higher showing plenty of promise. First time up, found 7f too far at Thirsk but a much improved effort was on offer lto when 5th of 19 in a big field handicap at Doncaster. First time cheekpieces that day helped too and they are fitted again today. Goes on any type of ground too and stables only runner today so I think plenty is in place for a big run. Has been backed in the offices too so I'm happy to be on at the early price.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Disappointing week. 1 winner early doors but, since then, 5 poor efforts. Loss on the week which looked unlikely after a great start. Hope to improve moving into Royal Ascot week. 2011 Staked = 670.00pts Returned = 826.72pts Profit = +156.72pts Yield = +23.4% Bets = 67 Winners = 8 (11.9% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 23 (34.3% s/r) Weekly P/L 20/03 +96.25pts 27/03 +20.00pts 03/04 -49.12pts 10/04 -11.25pts 17/04 +00.63pts 24/04 +30.00pts 01/05 -10.00pts 08/05 -20.00pts 15/05 +12.00pts 22/05 +35.65pts 29/05 -16.25pts 05/06 +82.25pts 12/06 -13.44pts

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Let's hope we can start Royal Ascot week off with a winner:hope. One for Monday. 3.15 Carlisle 7f, Class 4 handicap with 12 left in. Open race, going 4/1 the field and half of them in single figures in the betting. Quite a few question marks over those so I'm on one at bigger odds. Bay Of Fires (12/1 Paddy Power BOG) - I think this one is a few points too big, in fact it would be no surprise to see it go off half these odds. Hails from a yard in really good form and is ridden by a top jockey. This combo has to be feared and the fact it's the only runner for the stable at Carlisle is a positive sign. Has enough form to suggest it will be good enough in this field having run in the Albany as a 2yo, this race is back in Class 4 company. What interests me, apart from what I've mentioned above, is that this is a stiff track and the ground is expected to be riding soft. Our horse has form on soft, in fact it's best speed figure has been recorded on such going, and it stays a stiff 7f. Those factors are something that cannot be said about many of her rivals. Goes really well for this jockey with both of her career wins coming when ridden by todays pilot. Her best win, on soft, was at the tail of last term and came off 2lb higher than today. Reappeared a couple of weeks over a mile at Newcastle off that 2lb higher mark and, 1.5f out, was in with every chance but folded tamely. Saying that, I was disappointed with how the jockey rode her that day. Dictated a sedate pace and was still travelled well 2f out when plenty were hard at work but just didn't have the pace to make it count. I think this one is more of a galloper so ridden prominently on the back of a fast pace is ideal, conditions she should get here. Her very persuasive jockey will ride her out to the line and, at this stiff track, I'd be surprised if that wasn't enough. Odds too big to ignore so I'll take the bet at 12's.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps And a 2nd bet for Monday. 8.10 Warwick A 14 runner, Class 4 handicap over the sharp 7f. Another very open race with no stand out contender and with question marks over the leading fancies so, again, I'll take a chance with a big priced one that has unquestionable ability. Masai Moon (14/1 William Hill BOG) - Top weight here without a win since 2008 but retains plenty of ability and has a definite chance here. This horse is without doubt at his best over this trip and is now dropped in grade and mark, so looks handicapped to win. Since his last win 3 years ago off a mark off 87, he's only raced at marks in the 80's on turf 7 times, showing some very good form amongst those runs. It's plain that this horse doesn't stay 8f and 2 of those 7 runs were over a mile, including lto. Of the other 5, his form reads 3-3-2-7-4, all of them coming in higher grades than this and the disappointing 7th was in a Class 2 over a stiff 7f, off 3lb higher. Since returning to action this term, he's raced 3 times. First time up, he was 2nd on the sand at Southwell off this mark, before running a very nice race at HQ when 4th of 10 off 2lb and 1 grade higher. I'm more than happy to ignore his last run where 8f, the stiff Sandown finish and soft ground were all against him. Stable is in excellent nick at present with 5 winners & 3 placed from 13 runners this month. 14/1 is way too big for me and I really think this one will love the fast pace and should go very close indeed.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Absolute crap. Struggling for form but will turn it around soon enough (I hope):$

[BillyHills]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Know how you feel Russ, tomorrows another day mate:hope

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps think we've all been here Russ before..Just keep doing what your doing and they will go in,as they are bigger odds there will be losing runs as you know..all the best:nana

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Cheers guys. 2 for tomorrow, both away from the big meeting. 2.55 Hamilton 11 runner Class 5 handicap over 6f and a race that I can't see having a hot favourite. I'm hoping to get decent odds on my selection which is as follows. Night Trade (RPF 7/1) - Joint top weight here but despite carrying 10st, I think she has a massive chance. Has been campaigned recently over 7f but steps back to 6f and is dropped in both class and mark. Interestingly, the last time she faced any of those 3 conditions (6f, mark of 75 and Class 5), she won. That was back in August at Catterick. Since then, she has run some good races in defeat, most notably at this specialist track over a furlong shorter, albeit on soft ground. Ran well lto, showing some improved form which makes her a betting proposition, especially with conditions in her favour. Comes from a small stable which has had her 1 and only winner in 2011 very recently. It's her only runner here tomorrow but, of more interest, is her general reluctance to send her horses too far, probably due to overheads. This one travels the furthest of any horse she's sent out this season, and by some considerable distance which indicates to me that the horse is ready to visit the winners enclosure again. 8.20 Ripon Class 3, 3yo only handicap over 6f with 12 lining up. This race is all about potential and we have a warm favourite who will go close I'm sure but has a bit to find on speed figures and could just be a tad short in the market. The one I like is. Dickies Lad (11/2 William Hill BOG) - Starts his life in handicaps on a stiff looking mark of 90 but, for me, that's fully justified. Recorded a speed figure of 90 on his last start, only his 2nd career start, and the way he bolted up suggests there's more to come, winning by 14L. Admittedly the opposition was poor but he couldn't have been more impressive and there's bound to be any amount of improvement left in him. Likes to lead and go from the front which is something that is worth plenty in races at Ripon, and the high draw just adds weight to that. Stable's only runner here tomorrow and I feel that if he can grab the rail, it would be no surprise to see this one lead from pillar to post on his way to bigger and better things. Really big chance on a course that will suit.

[kevshat]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Just had a text from Russ who is at work and can't log onto PL so he's asked me to post that he's taken Night Trade at 11/1 with Victor Chandler (BOG)

[kevshat]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

2.55 Hamilton 11 runner Class 5 handicap over 6f and a race that I can't see having a hot favourite. I'm hoping to get decent odds on my selection which is as follows. Night Trade (RPF 7/1) - Joint top weight here but despite carrying 10st, I think she has a massive chance. Has been campaigned recently over 7f but steps back to 6f and is dropped in both class and mark. Interestingly, the last time she faced any of those 3 conditions (6f, mark of 75 and Class 5), she won. That was back in August at Catterick. Since then, she has run some good races in defeat, most notably at this specialist track over a furlong shorter, albeit on soft ground. Ran well lto, showing some improved form which makes her a betting proposition, especially with conditions in her favour. Comes from a small stable which has had her 1 and only winner in 2011 very recently. It's her only runner here tomorrow but, of more interest, is her general reluctance to send her horses too far, probably due to overheads. This one travels the furthest of any horse she's sent out this season, and by some considerable distance which indicates to me that the horse is ready to visit the winners enclosure again.

Unlucky with this one mate. I thought it was coming there to win the race but just touched off. Keep knocking on the door mate, the next winner isn't far away ;).

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2 for me today. 5.35 Ascot 18 runners for the last, 12f King George V handicap. It looks a really competitive heat and I think Brown Panther has solid claims but I'm chancing one at bigger odds. Danadana (12/1 Bet365 BOG) - Lightly raced animal from the foot of the handicap, carrying just 8st8 and comes here from a very dangerous stable indeed. Knows how to ready a handicap winner and is pretty confident over its chances today. Has just a maiden win to its name before unlucky when 2nd lto when hanging badly. Just one try on soft ground and does seem to appreciate a bit of give whilst the step up to 12f is likely to bring about further improvement. Has been aimed at this race and I think 12's is a fair price. Stamina is guaranteed so the stiff Ascot finish will suit, low weight will help whilst looks well handicapped. Plenty going for this horse although it is a competitive 3yo race, I like the price and am very hopeful.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 7.10 Beverley Just 9 runners for this Class 4, 7f handicap and I'm taking one of the outsiders here. A few in form horses in the race but that makes their handicap mark look a tad stiff. I'm taking one in double figures. Sunrise Safari (12/1 Victor Chandler BOG) - Big price here for a capable horse and one I've backed in the distant past. From a top yard that has had a winner already today and is down in both class and mark. Hasn't done much so far this term but retains ability and its drop into this grade will make a big difference. Has not raced off a mark this low for 4 years, and won that time too. Is 3 from 8 in this grade, opposed to 2 from 35 in higher grades. Stable's only runner of the meeting, jockey has won on the horse before and the main positive for me is the step up to 7f. Only ever raced at this trip 3 times and I think there's plenty of evidence to suggest this could be the key. 12's is a huge price and I'm happy to be on.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Hit the crossbar a little today. Danadana got badly bumped on the turn and looked nailed on for a place until fading into 5th:wall. Sunrise Safari, meanwhile drifted out to 16's but ran a really solid race, finishing best of all but unable to get to the winner. 16/1 2nd ain't bad though & I'm getting closer.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Taking one early for tomorrow. 8.10 Newmarket This is a nice looking 14 runner, Class 3 handicap over 7f at HQ. Some big priced ones on offer here and I'm looking quite a way down the market for our bet here. Spirit Of Sharjah (16/1 William Hill BOG) - Top weight here with 10st to carry but enough in its favour to suggest that won't be a burden. Its form when carrying 9st10 or more reads 3-6-1-3-0 so I'm not worried about 10st. However, what appeals is that this horse is, at its best, a class apart from the rest of the field having mainly contested Listed races or top handicaps. In fact, it hasn't raced in this grade for over 12 months. Also, hasn't raced off a mark this low for over a year too but, in that time, has run some excellent races including a handicap win off 97 in a Class 2 (off 94 today) and a Listed event. After a slow start to this season, it has really come to the fore in its last 2 races, finishing a 2L 7th over a trip too short at sharp track Goodwood, 6f proving too short. Whilst lto, it finished 5th over 9f in a top race at Epsom won by Dance And Dance. Would certainly have been closer but for the extremes of distance, looking menancing but fading late on. Now runs over its fav distance of 7f and should go really well. Has won 3 of 14 handicaps over 7f with a series of placed efforts too. Small stable is in reasonable nick too and I feel that 16's is way too big and should go close at a price.