RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[jtw1]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Nice one :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Cheers guys:ok Not sure how it won but came with a great late rattle to land the spoils on the line. Was backed into 9/2 before starting at 13/2, so happy with the price too. No bets tomorrow but should be one on Friday and maybe another on Saturday. Then it's 3 days off at it's Southwell, Southwell, Southwell. No bets at the beach for me:lol

[stewartd14]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps :clap:clap Great call Russ. Back with a bang !

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2 bets today, the first of which is below. 5.40 Wolverhampton Class 5 handicap over 7f with 11 now facing the starter. I think it's pretty clear that the favourite, Perfect Cracker, will be tough to crack after bolting up by a combined 15L on its last 2 starts but I'm taking the chance that the handicapper and a change of venue to this left handed track could scupper its bid for a hat trick. That aside, I think the presence of the horse presents some really EW value elsewhere and with 9 of the remaining 10 in double figures, I'll head there for my bet. Tiradito (12/1 Boylesports BOG) - Let's first get the negatives out of the way. Hasn't won in its last 8 starts, finishing no better than 5th in the 6 handicaps whilst the other 2 runs were in claimers. But, now for the positives and the reasons why 11/1 is way too big a price to ignore; back at its favourite track where in 6 C&D races, has won once, 3 2nds & 2 3rds, all in higher grades than today and off marks between 74 and 79 (79 was when it won), yet races off 73 today and has a 5lb claimer on top. Stable has a fantastic record here in comparison to the other AW tracks (6 from 21 this year), and it is his only runner here today. Is a specialist 7f horse too which I think is important, a fact often underestimated in racing. In fact, since it won here in April, we can probably find excuses since. Kempton is not a track the horse likes but it is local to the trainer! 2 runs there over the wrong trip can be ignored whilst the 3 efforts there over 7f offered encouragement but handicap marks in the 80's tell the story. Then came back here but found 9f too far and has raced last twice in claimers at Lingfield, running very well each over this trip. That proved to me that the old ability remains and now, off 73 with a further 5lb being claimed by the jockey, this could well prove to be a handicap blip and should be the one giving the favourite the most to do.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2nd bet. 6.40 Wolverhampton 13 runners for this Class 6, 9f handicap. This is supposed to surround Hierarch & Rock Anthem who battled out the finish in an apprentice race at Kempton lto and both go unpenalised but neither are horses I'd back to follow up and certainly not at their current odds. Of the bigger prices, I think Striding Edge has a chance but price is skinnier than I hoped for so I'm risking a big priced one which has one major doubt but that's offset by several positives. Anjomarba (16/1 William Hill BOG) - This one comes here with a much better shout than it's odds would suggest. Mainly campaigned over 6f and 7f, but today steps up to 9f and that's where the supposed negative comes in. However, I see it differently and feel that this horse needs a bit further nowadays and the 'on paper' 2f hike in distance is actually only 1.5f. Is a 3 time handicap winner, off 59 / 63 / 66 and today races off 60 so this mark is well within range, whilst top jock takes over for her only ride of the meeting and is 1 from 1 on this horse. Why do I think it will stay the trip? Firstly, the horse travels & settles really well so that's the first tick in the box. Secondly, recent form suggests a step up is what's needed. Last 4 races have all been here, firstly over 7f off a 2lb higher mark than this. Led in this but stayed on well for a close up 4th. Next time up off the same mark, the horse again led and finished 4th again but didn't actually fade, was just beaten by speedier types. Then dropped to this mark for its last 2 runs, the first of which saw a improved performance in 2nd, finishing well clear of 3rd before the drop lto to 6f proved yet again that a longer trip is now required. I'm also not convinced there's load of pace here adding further weight to the claims of this one. At 16's, it's a risk I'm happy to take.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Tiradito now a NR.

[Edberg]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

2nd bet. 6.40 Wolverhampton 13 runners for this Class 6, 9f handicap. This is supposed to surround Hierarch & Rock Anthem who battled out the finish in an apprentice race at Kempton lto and both go unpenalised but neither are horses I'd back to follow up and certainly not at their current odds. Of the bigger prices, I think Striding Edge has a chance but price is skinnier than I hoped for so I'm risking a big priced one which has one major doubt but that's offset by several positives. Anjomarba (16/1 William Hill BOG) - This one comes here with a much better shout than it's odds would suggest. Mainly campaigned over 6f and 7f, but today steps up to 9f and that's where the supposed negative comes in. However, I see it differently and feel that this horse needs a bit further nowadays and the 'on paper' 2f hike in distance is actually only 1.5f. Is a 3 time handicap winner, off 59 / 63 / 66 and today races off 60 so this mark is well within range, whilst top jock takes over for her only ride of the meeting and is 1 from 1 on this horse. Why do I think it will stay the trip? Firstly, the horse travels & settles really well so that's the first tick in the box. Secondly, recent form suggests a step up is what's needed. Last 4 races have all been here, firstly over 7f off a 2lb higher mark than this. Led in this but stayed on well for a close up 4th. Next time up off the same mark, the horse again led and finished 4th again but didn't actually fade, was just beaten by speedier types. Then dropped to this mark for its last 2 runs, the first of which saw a improved performance in 2nd, finishing well clear of 3rd before the drop lto to 6f proved yet again that a longer trip is now required. I'm also not convinced there's load of pace here adding further weight to the claims of this one. At 16's, it's a risk I'm happy to take.

Why did she ride like that? :eyes not that nice at all Hayley :@ Surely a horse to follow. I guess they could be landing a big gambling soon

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Anjomarba was disappointing, certainly didn't travel as I expected. With a poor card today at Lingfield and then 3 days of racing on the beach, there's definitely no more bets until Wed so I'll take this opportunity to wrap up final P&L. Ended up in profit so that's a positive, but lack of activity is very disappointing. As I said in an earlier post, I ain't making excuses nor am I making promises. Anyway, here goes. Overall (2011 only) Staked = 870.00pts Returned = 1066.97pts Profit = +196.97pts Yield = +22.6% Bets = 87 Winners = 11 (12.6% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 30 (34.5% s/r) Overall (2007-2011 incl) Staked = 3670.00pts Returned = 4652.43pts Profit = +982.43pts Yield = +26.8% Bets = 368 Winners = 46 (12.5% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 127 (34.5% s/r)

[Aykay1]

Well done Russ, some good figures there :notworthy

[Stevet1859]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Cracking stuff Russ :clap a masterclass

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps First 2 bets of 2012. 2.20 Lingfield Class 4, 10f handicap with 13 runners and bookies are currently going 5's the field. With 4 lto winners and 3 more finishing either 2nd or 3rd lto, we have a field on in form horses but that brings with it rising handicap marks that may be difficult to overcome. Instead, I'll take a horse outside of that group but with good form nonetheless, trading at a big price. Green Wadi (14/1 William Hill BOG) - Now a 7yo but in good heart with 2 wins from its last 4 runs. Since starting its AW campaign, this horse has won off 68 and 73 (77 today) and finished 6th twice of 1lb more. However, I think there are good reasons to believe this horse can win off this mark. Win over C&D 3 starts ago came off 4lb lower but the front 2 pulled over 2L clear of the rest suggesting the form is pretty solid, the horse finishing well on a fast finishers track. That last comment explains why I'm prepared to overlook the last run where jockey raced it prominently, horse took a keen hold and then it wasn't fully ridden out to the line. Sandwiched in between that was a race over 2f more, not the horses' ideal distance where it's hold up style was a disadvantage as there was no pace. All 4 of those runs have been Green Wadi's only ones with cheekpieces and they stay on for this race too. Drawn on the inside so shouldn't have to expend too much energy early doors and is trainers only runner on the card. There's clearly the potential that there's more to come from one of the lto winners but I still think there's more to come from this one and, at 14's, I'll take a chance that this is the day. 6.30 Kempton Class 5, 1m, 13 runner handicap. I don't think any of those at the forefront of the market represent great value so it's further down the list for this bet too. Ibiza Sunset (10/1 Bet365 BOG) - A maiden after 8 starts but has plenty in its favour here. Stable is in very good nick and is only runner at the meet. The same can be said of the top jockey on top who also only has a single ride. Showed decent form in 3 maidens at Lingfield before opening its handicap career off a mark of 68. Finished 3rd off that mark over this C&D, and followed it up with another 3rd off 69, both times staying on well from off the pace. Up to 72, then came a plumb last run over C&D from the widest stall where prominent style didn't suit, a comment that stand in its next run. Seemed to travel well lto in an apprentice race at Wolverhampton lto but raced wide throughout, was made too much use of too early from inexperienced rider and trip was too far at 9.5f. Good inside draw here, stronger handling, significant jockey booking, best trip at what's likely to be it's best track, this horse should go very well indeed now dropped to just 66 if the jockey tucks the horse behind the leaders. 10's is a very fair price.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Terrible start to the year:( Green Wadi wasn't suited by the steady pace. Travelled well and looked ready to make a challenge off the home turn but it never materialised. Ibiza Sunset, meanwhile, was heavily gambled on into 3's but broke very slowly and I think that sealed our fate. Made up the lost ground but was a spent force 2f out and never looked like winning. No bets tomorrow, but will hopefully have chance to make amends either Fri or Sat.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Hoping for better tomorrow with one running in the lucky last. 7.15 Wolverhampton 13 runners line up for this Class 6 handicap over 1m1f. Competitive heat with, as it stands, 12 of the 13 trading at 14/1 or less, the fav being the Williams trained Postscript. Certainly has a chance off its current mark but is no 4/1 shot in my book on what's it's achieved so far. Therefore, I'm going for another that hasn't yet showed its hand but is priced accordingly. Galloping Minister (14/1 Bet365 BOG) - Hails from a shrewd yard and is ridden by top jockey with a 4/12 strike rate over the last 5 years. This horse is still lightly raced, having just 6 career starts. Was clearly thought well of at home, having started life in the Wood Ditton. Outclassed in that but then ran in 3 maidens over inadequate sprint trips, looking each time as if a stiffer test of stamina was required. Entered handicaps off a mark of 60, here stepped up to 7f and ran pretty well to finish 4th of 10, behind 3 in form rivals. That was a good performance and I still thought the horse needed a bit further, well that's granted here with another quarter of a mile to run. As well as the extra distance, a 4lb lower mark is yet another positive. Has had only 1 run in between that & now but easy to ignore its no show on the beach at Southwell. This looks a pretty weak race and I think that this horse has shown enough form in maidens but, even more so when first time up in a handicap to suggest it will go well here. The step up in trip will suit (breeding suggests so too) as will the drop in mark. Trainers only runner and looks overpriced at 14's. Should go very well.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps I keep reading that you'll be successful if you consistently find value & beat the price on a horse. Well, my last 2 bets have more than halved in odds but I'm yet to find a place this year:lol Anyway, I'm taking 1 more today. 3.20 Lingfield 11 runner, Class 4 handicap over a mile. Many of the market leaders have questionable form in claimers so I'm taking a horse expected to be suited by the conditions. Dens Gift (14/1 Betfred BOG) - I'm taking the only front runner in the field in the hope that Dens Gift can steady the pace and kick on from the home turn to hold on & land the spoils. Doesn't have a bad record on the AW with 4 wins & 7 places from 23 runs, albeit the last win being over 18 months ago. Has won off higher marks than the 78 it faces today and, in fact, has only ever run twice on the sand off marks in the 70's (1st & 2nd). Promising 5lb claimer takes further weight off, making this one look extremely well handicapped. Goes well at this time of year and should get the run of the race here, this looks to have lots in its favour today and provided jockey doesn't set the horse off at a breakneck pace, I think we should be looking at a very good run. 14's looks a big price on a great EW shot.

[Aykay1]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Unlucky Russ, beaten 2 heads into 3rd. Nice each way return though :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Cheers AK. Dens Gift looked like he might just hold on when kicking over a furlong out but, in the end, I was happy with the 3rd place, beaten 2 heads. Yet again, a horse is backed in & almost halved in odds. That gets me off the mark for the year, let's hope we can build on it this week. 2.25 Wolverhampton Class 6, 7f handicap here with 12 runners. An apprentice handicap so it generally pays to look for a decent jockey that's well worth any allowance they are claiming, whilst needing a well handicapped horse. I think I've found both with my selection. Needwood Ridge (10/1 William Hill BOG) - This one looks overpriced to me here. For the first time in its career, it's dropped to Class 6 company and races off a career low AW mark of just 65. Is still reasonably lightly raced, is a Wolverhampton specialist and 7f is its best trip. Jockey is a very useful prospect indeed and alongside Fahy & O'Neill, is probably the best on view here, yet ours has a 5lb claim to factor in. That might just make all the difference. Last 7 races (all in the last 6 months) have come here, winning the 1st of those 7 off 66. Since then, form has been patchy aside for a close up 2nd off 69 but plenty of excuses. Mark of 69/70 was too much to overcome in 3 of those runs, whilst I think there are different reasons in its last 2 races. 2 starts ago, 9f was the wrong trip whilst lto, the steady pace did not suit our horse who pulled hard for much of the way. Dropped a further 2lb for that to 65, eased in grade and now with the assistance of a super talented apprentice, I expect this horse to go well. One final thing in our favour is the likely pace. Plenty of pace pushers in the line up should suit our hold up animal who clearly gets a little bit further so stamina could come into play inside the last half furlong. 10's is too big.

[BillyHills]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Unlucky with that one Russ, come to win the race on the outside:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Thanks Graham. Getting closer with a 3rd & 2nd from last 2 bets:lol Beach racing tomorrow & a poor card at Kempton the day after means no bets until Thursday:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Just the 1 bet for tomorrow. 6.45 Kempton With 1 NR, we have a field of 10 for this 1m, Class 4 handicap. Sunset Kitty is the fav but, to me, looks to be a weak fav judged on the run lto whilst jockey change isn't ideal. I am however staying with one of the market principles for my bet. Veroon (13/2 Paddy Power BOG) - I really like this horses' chances here. Stable is in very hot form with 3 winners from its last 6 runners and Veroon now looks attractively handicapped. Is at its best back at the C&D on the AW so has its ideal conditions today. Has raced 5 times on the AW this winter, winning 1. That was its first race off 1lb lower over this C&D before going very close off 82 (80 today) when the race wasn't run to suit. In my opinion, it was almost like a winner so provided we get a decent pace (2 possible front runners so we should be), this mark off 80 makes this one look a handicap snip. Excuses last 3 runs where 10f trip was too far here, whilst the tracks at Lingfield & Wolverhampton don't suit ideally and both times was given poor rides, sitting too far back. The longer straight here suits as our charge likes to come with a prolonged run from the back and I think with conditions in our favour, this one will go very close.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Veroon was disappointing last time after looking like he was coming to win the race, finishing 4th. One for today, hoping to land that elusive 1st winner of the year. 1.40 Kempton 12 line up for this Class 6, 1m apprentice handicap. All 3 of the market leaders have claims but their continued rise in the weights makes me believe that one of the lesser fancied horses may just have their day today and it's down the market I go for my bet. Nolecce (9/1 Bet365 BOG) - Trainer only sends 2 down from North Yorks and this is the one I fancy can bring him back a winner. Has plenty in its favour today, not least an ease of 4lb in the weights and drop in grade. Has been campaigned over a variety of distances but I'm certain that the drop back to a mile is ideal, especially in a race where I'm sure the pace will be brisk. Has a win & a 2nd from 3tries here so likes the track and should be ready to strike after being freshened up a few weeks back at Wolverhampton. Stronger handling today as well as that dip in mark will help and record in Class 6 in pretty good in handicap company, 4-5-1-2-4-1-0-2, with the 0 blamed on a trip too far for this horse. 15 handicap starts in better company have yielded just the 1 win so the drop down to this grade could well prove significant. Has shown more than enough in the last 6 months to suggest it should go well and in a poor race where I'm happy to oppose the front 3, I think 9's is too big a price to ignore.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Doesn't make good reading but here's current P&L for 2012. 2012 Staked = 70.00pts Returned = 36.50pts Profit = -33.50pts Yield = -47.9% Bets = 7 Winners = 0 (0.0% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 2 (28.6% s/r)

[Aykay1]

Thats not too bad on a small sample. Remember those numbers dont tell the whole story- youve hit the crossbar a couple of times which would have put you in profit.

[BillyHills]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Similar to mine Russ, plenty of time left to turn it around mate:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Taking a couple today. 1.55 Lingfield 12 runner, Class 5 handicap over 6f and a competitive heat this is. I genuinely feel that none of the market leaders have credentials that justify their price so I'm taking a bigger priced one. Nubar Boy (12/1 William Hill BOG) - I like this one today. Loves this C&D and should be ready to produce a bit better than lto with a faster pace almost guaranteed. Never nearer 7th last week but jockey didn't really put the horse into the race off a slow pace and has been replaced by the champ today. That, coupled with a stable in form and a 1lb ease in mark puts everything in place for a big run. Last run was first one for 6 months and I'm certain it'll improve for that race. Jockey booking looks significant to me and suggests connections are going all out for a win. The race should be run to suit and the horse has an ok draw with the inside berth. Get the horse settled early and move into position 2f out is the plan, kicking for home off the final turn and hopefully it's fast & late style will pan out beautifully here. Provided it can build on that run last week, the mark, style of race & jockey booking, as well as C&D, should give our charge a great shot of collecting. 3.00 Lingfield Another 6f, 12 runner handicap but this time, a Class 3. This race does have a very warm fav indeed but there's no way I can take around 5/4 on an improving horse against these seasoned campaigners. What it does is open up some EW value and I'm taking a proven AW handicapper. Piscean (12/1 Paddy Power BOG) - Was 16's last night but, at 12's, still worth a punt. Raced against several of these 2 weeks ago but, for me, is the one to take out of the race. Was made too much use of early, in a race with no pace, and in the end did well to finish 6th of 12. Today should suit much better with a faster pace almost guaranteed as well as a 2lb drop in the weights, ease in grade too. Mark now looks attractive having won off 5lb higher 12 months ago and this C&D suits. Excuses last 3 runs for me, first being an awful ride where the jockey sat at the back and then took the horse as wide as possible, losing 4 or 5L, yet still finishing only 4L back in a better race than this off 6lb higher. The small field didn't suit next time but the horse still managed 2nd behind a big improver whilst we've already spoken about lto and how the pace wasn't suited to our selection. Small stable isn't sending many out but they are running very well so, in a bid to extend that form, I'll take the 7yo to land the spoils today.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Broke even yesterday with Nubar Boy finishing fast to grab 3rd whilst Piscean only just missed out on a place too. 2 more bets for today, the first of which is below. 2.20 Kempton 12 left in for this Class 6, 7f handicap and it looks an open heat. The market leaders have the worst of the draw whilst Garstang is getting a bit long in the tooth, so the next one in the market is the one I'll take. Spin Again (7/1 William Hill BOG) - The lesser fancied of 2 runners from the stable but comes here with solid credentials. Firstly, I expect the race to be run to suit with very few, if any (other than our selection), likely to make the running whilst the draw in 5 looks perfect. Ran an absolute cracker lto when 3rd in an apprentice handicap but was the one to take from the race, the only prominently ridden horse amongst the first half dozen home. Has been dropped 1lb for that run and 5lb amateur stays on board for this run too. Form previously has been poor but, looking back through past form, it's clear to me that the key lies in this jockey, this grade, over this trip. Interesting that trainer brings only 2 to the meeting and both of them race in this & are in the top 4 in the betting. A sure signal one is going to win & I'm pretty sure that, under these conditions, the prices are the wrong way round. Only 2 runs on AW in this class have provided a win & a 3rd off marks higher than this, albeit marginally, so all is in place for a big run today.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps 2nd bet for today. 4.55 Kempton 6f, Class 5 handicap to close the card off with 11 runners. Again, an open event and one where I think there are question marks over the leading fancies, either up in mark or grade. There is one further down the betting that interests me. Whipphound (18/1 Bet365) - Looks a big price to me in a poor event for a Class 5. Stable had a 40/1 winner here last week and it's rare for the small stable to have any AW runners away from Wolverhampton so I feel this entry may be significant. Has 2 wins to its name, 1 in a claimer & 1 in a seller from just over 12 months ago but that put the horse on a mark out of reach. Has really been a no show on turf albeit its last 2 attempts in the summer had plenty of promise off todays mark. Was off for 6 months before finishing plumb last at Wolverhampton lto off 4lb higher 52 days ago. Although it was in this grade, it was a stronger event and our selection ran much better than it's finishing position suggested. Poor draw that day, raced out wide and travelled very well, being one of the last off the bridle but brought too wide in the straight and only faded inside the final furlong. That was off a slow pace too so being held up didn't suit and I'm certain there will be more dash on today. Has a good draw in stall 5 and think it's a good jockey booking too. Speculative selection but at a price worth chancing in a field full of questionable types.

[ONEDUNME]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Broke even yesterday with Nubar Boy finishing fast to grab 3rd whilst Piscean only just missed out on a place too. 2 more bets for today, the first of which is below. 2.20 Kempton 12 left in for this Class 6, 7f handicap and it looks an open heat. The market leaders have the worst of the draw whilst Garstang is getting a bit long in the tooth, so the next one in the market is the one I'll take. Spin Again (7/1 William Hill BOG) - The lesser fancied of 2 runners from the stable but comes here with solid credentials. Firstly, I expect the race to be run to suit with very few, if any (other than our selection), likely to make the running whilst the draw in 5 looks perfect. Ran an absolute cracker lto when 3rd in an apprentice handicap but was the one to take from the race, the only prominently ridden horse amongst the first half dozen home. Has been dropped 1lb for that run and 5lb amateur stays on board for this run too. Form previously has been poor but, looking back through past form, it's clear to me that the key lies in this jockey, this grade, over this trip. Interesting that trainer brings only 2 to the meeting and both of them race in this & are in the top 4 in the betting. A sure signal one is going to win & I'm pretty sure that, under these conditions, the prices are the wrong way round. Only 2 runs on AW in this class have provided a win & a 3rd off marks higher than this, albeit marginally, so all is in place for a big run today.

Looked to me like something went wrong with it. Jockey let it drop away tamely. First time I've ever watched that particuar jockey. She looked awful

[ONEDUNME]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps I'll qualify that remark. If she felt that the horse wasn't right (which I suspect is what will come out) then it's fair enough to ease off it but even so, she was bouncing around like a sack of spuds for half the race.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

Looked to me like something went wrong with it. Jockey let it drop away tamely. First time I've ever watched that particuar jockey. She looked awful

I'll qualify that remark. If she felt that the horse wasn't right (which I suspect is what will come out) then it's fair enough to ease off it but even so' date=' she was bouncing around like a sack of spuds for half the race.[/quote'] It did look like that but it appears that saddle slipped early doors:ok

[ONEDUNME]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps Ah that explains everything then. I take back my criticism of her. I thought something was amiss by the way she seemed to give up the race when the horse looked to be full of running.