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Posted (edited)

The Gracheva and Cociaretto results ae fantastic. Huge wins.

Bizarre to see Etcheverry at odds of 2.2 being 2 sets down. He is up now but has only faced a couple of break points whole match. 

He should win the 3rd and then he probably rolls over Rinderkech.

Edited by neilovan
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, neilovan said:

The Gracheva and Cociaretto results ae fantastic. Huge wins.

Bizarre to see Etcheverry at odds of 2.2 being 2 sets down. He is up now but has only faced a couple of break points whole match. 

He should win the 3rd and then he probably rolls over Rinderkech.

retires. @#$%^^!!!  Amazing, You take a huge risk at 2 sets to 0 down and get no rewrd.

Edited by neilovan
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Marie Bouzkova (+7.5) to beat Iga Swiatek at 1.67 with Bet365

Bouzkova has always been a legit player, she's very talented, and she's been playing above her standard so far in this event, so this line looks too high to me honestly. Swiatek isn't going to lose, and she'll be focused after that near-loss with Osaka, but +7.5 is just madness imo.

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Posted (edited)

Both Vekic and Cocciaretto off to 4-0 starts. Danilovic may be suffering a let-down after the biggest win of her life yesterday.

Not much happening today. I do like Moutet to beat Ofner. Low price but Ofner played 4 hours yesterday, and the last 2 sets (of a 5 setter) took 2hrs 15 minutes. Hard to see him recovering here. Also, Moutet loves to rev up the home crowd. I think Ofner could get swamped  Then 1.8 for the Moutet - 4.5 looks really good to me. 1st set probably critical, but if Moutet takes it, Ofner could be cooked. 

Only one guy hoping for more rain today is Ofner. If it rains he gets a full rest day, as I think he's not on a covered court. He's last match of the day on Simone Mattieu

Edited by neilovan
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Posted (edited)

Cocciaretto is going to win but Samsonova  as been awful. Probably 2+ unforced errors a game. You can't win against a half decent opponent doing that.

She lost 5 in a row to start and was all over the place. Forehand is just a terrible shot, especially on a slow surface at sea level.

I like both Fernandes and Kenin to win today. Hopefully both , but one of the 2 (bets taken as singles) should come through. If both, so much the better.

Edited by neilovan
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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Marie Bouzkova (+7.5) to beat Iga Swiatek at 1.67 with Bet365

Bouzkova has always been a legit player, she's very talented, and she's been playing above her standard so far in this event, so this line looks too high to me honestly. Swiatek isn't going to lose, and she'll be focused after that near-loss with Osaka, but +7.5 is just madness imo.

I'm sure she can get 1 game in the 2nd set.

Easy, at 0-4 down serving,  just a net cord that lands on the line and an ace from nowhere. Never in doubt.

Edited by neilovan
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Fritz - Kokkinakis 

My bookie (French Betclic) has : 1st player to 10 points , Kokkinakis @3.50 

Fritz is a huge server , but so is Kokkinakis , so it's more like who will win the coin toss and serve first , so 3.50 seems huge , any opinion ?? did i miss something? thanks

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1 hour ago, 888888 said:Fritz - Kokkinakis 

My bookie (French Betclic) has : 1st player to 10 points , Kokkinakis @3.50 

Fritz is a huge server , but so is Kokkinakis , so it's more like who will win the coin toss and serve first , so 3.50 seems huge , any opinion ?? did i miss something? thanks

Intrigued enough to do a bit of calculator stabbing, I’d get true odds of around 2.75 if I had to guess, though that’s more representative of him winning 2 of the first 3 games. I can see why anything above 2/1 might appeal. It might be a coin toss as to who serves first but, even if the dog serves first, the market makes it around a coin toss that the fav breaks at one of the first 2 opportunities. The other way round, the fav is long odds on not to be broken.

Have you decided to play it?

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29 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Intrigued enough to do a bit of calculator stabbing, I’d get true odds of around 2.75 if I had to guess, though that’s more representative of him winning 2 of the first 3 games. I can see why anything above 2/1 might appeal. It might be a coin toss as to who serves first but, even if the dog serves first, the market makes it around a coin toss that the fav breaks at one of the first 2 opportunities. The other way round, the fav is long odds on not to be broken.

Have you decided to play it?

yes i took it medium stake , 3,50 odds is a probability of 28% , Kokki is a big server just like Fritz so I feel there is value , hopefully he'll serve first , obviously if it was a player like Gasquet or average server I would not have played it ; it's a bit of a " gimmick " bet but still feel it should be 2,50 not 3,50.

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Posted (edited)

Zverev is in a whole heap of trouble against Griekspoor. It seems like the heavy conditions and the roof is slowing the ball down, making it harder to hit through, with longer rallies. Griekspoor def worth a small bet at odds of 3.2.

Tommy Paul v. Franscisco Cerundolo. Neither of these players can win the tournament but I don't think Paul should be a favoriite here, against a really tough opponent who has grown up on clay.  Neither player has dropped a set. I think the match result and over games combo is the bet here regardless of who you pick, because this will be long and close. Bet365 4.33 on Cerundolo and >39.5  and 3.1 on Paul & >37.5

 

Musetti v Djokovic. I was really surprised with how well Musetti played against Monfils. Musetti has been terrible this clay season, but he was terrific. Strong, balanced, beautiful backhand, ridiculous easy power and really quick around the court. I don't think this version of Djokovic can live with him. If Musetti brings the same game that he did against Monfils,  Straight win is as 5.0 . Musetti +6.5 is 1.83  . I am even tempted at the Musetti winning 3-1 which is at 12 on Bet365,

Two gifts at the bottom of the proceedings in thewoman's draw today. Keys been playing great, and should be way too good against a very inconsistent Emma Navarro. Navarro had a really weird final against Diana Shnaider in the Paris event, losing in 3.  For me odds of 1.3 on keys and 3 on Navarro would make more sens, but I only see one winner here.

Andreeva v Sterns is also 1-way traffic in my opinion. Andreeva getting the better of Azarenka in a tough late night match. SHe showed her fight and temprament, and I think she wins this match easily. Safe option is 1.36 but the 2:0 sets is even money and a better option for me.

 

Edited by neilovan
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Griekspoor making a game of this, great to see. And I know he's highly unlikely to win the tournament but even so, Boylesports still have him at a gargantuan 1000/1 to win the title. At those odds, its surely worth a quid e/w.

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Unbelievable... From a double break up in the final set, Griekspoor is now in the process of handing the match to Zverev on a silver platter. Give me strength.. 🙈🤦‍♂️

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Dunno which genius decided to finish off the Dimitrov match before the Djokovic match is due on court.

A bit presumptuous to believe that Dimitrov would just wrap it up in 3.

If it goes to 5 sets Djoko will start playing at 12:30 or even 1am - which is insane.

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Posted (edited)

Dimitrov to beat Hurkacz @1.74 👍
Jabeur to beat Tauson @1.45 👍
Ram/Salisbury to beat  Escobar/Nedovyesov @1.65 👍
Tsitsipas/Tsitsipas to beat Molchanov/Smith @1.60 👍
Errani /Paolini to beat Linette/Pera @1.53 👍

Alcaraz 3-1 @3.38 👎

 

All bets to Marathonbet. Good luck! 

Edited by timovk
Correct player - >Jabeur
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Posted (edited)

Hmmm, The Swiatek v Potatpova game was something. Potapova lost more games than she won points (10) in the entire match.

6-0 6-0 in 41 minutes must be a record. What rubbish. Imagine paying hard earned money to watch that and arriving 10 minutes late...

Edited by neilovan
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Posted (edited)

Medvedev @1.59 Pinnacle 👎
Ruud 3-1 @3.90 Marathonbet 👍
Fritz - Ruud over 3,5 sets @1.61 Pinnacle 👍
Zverev - 1.5 sets @1.71 Pinnacle 👎
Ram/Salisbury + Granollers  /Zeballos @1.75 Marathonbet 👍
Heliövaara/Patten @1.82 Marathonbet VOID
Rybarikina + Sabalenka @1.74 MARATHONBET 👍

Yesterday 5/6. Good luck you all. 

Edited by timovk
Results 4/6, +3 Units
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22 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Does anyone see any upsets today?

I wonder about Djokovic and Andreeva. Djokovic because of what his physical condition might be after that late - so late it was early - finish against Musetti and Andreeva because of the partisan crowd against recently French Gracheva. A set at least for each dog in those matches might be the way to go.

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Just now, Torque said:

Must be your first tennis post on here for about a decade! Welcome back :ok

haha, that's crazy to think but very true. Thank you, mate. I've not watched Tennis in that time so it's a bit of a mugs bet without too much research

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5 minutes ago, Fader said:

haha, that's crazy to think but very true. Thank you, mate. I've not watched Tennis in that time so it's a bit of a mugs bet without too much research

Both look good to me. Won't be surprised if they both land.

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4 hours ago, Fader said:

I have to wait until 3.30 for Cricket and no Darts or Snooker, so I've had a couple of bets today.

2.75pts Over 21.5 games - Svitolina v Rybakina 10/11 Bet365
2.5pts Over 36.5 games - ADM v Medvedev 4/5 Paddypower

The irony that I went with games to "be safe" when I fancied ADM and then only to be in a position now of Alex needing to get a 2nd set is just typical really :D 

Well a 2nd set or a 7-5 loss in the fourth, I guess. Looks like he's absolutely given up though lol

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35 minutes ago, Fader said:

The irony that I went with games to "be safe" when I fancied ADM and then only to be in a position now of Alex needing to get a 2nd set is just typical really :D 

Well a 2nd set or a 7-5 loss in the fourth, I guess. Looks like he's absolutely given up though lol

Pretty grim from Medvedev it has to be said. Flattened by ADM in the third set with the Aussie serving at 38%, can't save a break point in the forth and looking very much like he's given up.

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And that franks it. Doesn't even force ADM to serve it out, and doesn't save a single break point in that final set. Machac must be fuming - he'd have given ADM a better match. All of that after winning the first set as well.

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