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Racing chat-Saturday 15th July


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Bunbury cup 

Awaal  9.0 15/2 

Biggles  8.9 9/1 

Streets of gold  8.8 9/1 

These 3 are clear of rest .....biggles is ridden by Ryan Moore who has placed at least in 5 of last 6 running of race I think ....so at 8/1 ew 7 places with sky that looks a cracking bet but I'll try 10pt wins all 3 with a view to another carry over bet next week if any wins 🏆 

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A bumpers days racing with quality races coming at us from ITV across three meetings. We have four from day three of the Newmarket July meeting including the bet365 Bunbury Cup at 16:00 and the Pertemps Network July Cup at 16:35. York give us another four including the John Smith’s Cup at 15:10 whilst Ascot get in on the action with a brace coming from there. There’s showers forecast at all three meetings so it would be no surprise were the ground to ease at any of the meetings. Here’s my thoughts and tips for the day’s action.
 
Ascot 13:45
We start the days terrestrial action with a 19 runner sprint handicap over 5f for three year olds and upwards.
The only three year old in the race is David Simcock’s Harry Brown who is not without a chance although is 4lb wrong at the weights here today.
Top weight Rohaan is a real Ascot specialist having won 4 of his 7 starts here although I’m not sure dropping back to the minimum trip will suit this habitual slow starter trained by David Evans.
Charlie Hills’ Equilateral is an interesting runner who was last seen when 5th in the Group 1 Kings Stand Stakes at the Royal meeting and this represents a significant drop in class.
Last year’s 1-2-3 are all back for another go with Mountain Peak, who made all to strike, 8lb lower now but is woefully out of form having only beaten two horses in his three races this season. Runner up last year was the Bryan Smart trained Bond Chairman who went down by just a neck and although he is 11lb worse off with Mountain Peak comes here having won at Doncaster a month ago and with just a 3lb rise for that win and a decent draw in stall 19, so he can come over and bag the normally favoured near side rail, looks sure to run well again. Back in third last year was the David and Nicola Barron trained Zarzyni who is on a very nice mark now some 13lb better off for 1 1/2L with Bond Chairman and looks close to a winning run having finished 4th of 20 in the Epsom Dash last time out. I’ll split my bets between him and Bond Chairman each way with additional places.
 
BOND CHAIRMAN 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345
ZARZYNI 1 point each way @ 12/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345
 
York 14:00
A dozen milers line up for this 1M class 2 0-105 handicap. The race looks wide open with many holding similar chances.
Last year’s one two Eileen Dubh, trained by Karl Burke and David O’Meara’s Blue For You renew rivalry on the same terms and both hold decent clams whilst William Haggas’s Aramaic, who ran well last weekend over 10F steps back in trip which may not suit.
La Trinidad won this race two years ago and bounced back to winning form at Doncaster last time out, winning by 4 3/4L, a race for which the handicapper has clobbered him with a 9lb rise in the weights.
The most interesting runner is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Wild Lion who kept on well to win a 7F handicap here in first time cheek pieces last month. He’s been put up 4lb for that win when ridden by Kieran O’Neill but is ridden today by Bin Suroor’s assistant’s son Christian Howarth who is good value for his 5lb and thus will be racing off of a one pound less mark than when winning last time. He’s the pick in a tricky looking handicap.
 
WILD LION 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
Ascot 14:20
Just the nine here for the Group 2 Summer Mile for four year olds and upwards. The ground is very important here with both William Haggas’s Aldaary and Ralph Beckett’s Angel Bleu better on softer conditions. If the ground doesn’t ease from the current good to firm then we could easily see one or both missing the contest.
John & Thady Gosden’s Mighty Ulysses has obviously had training problems as we haven’t seen him for 329 days and can be overlooked here whilst Ralph Beckett’s Jimi Hendrix must be a player having won the Royal Hunt Cup over the straight mile here at the Royal meeting in great style.
Charlie Appleby has his string in fine form and despite a 3lb penalty for a Group 2 victory in Dubai at the beginning of the year his Master Of The Sea, who has by all accounts been burning up the gallops at Moultons Paddocks recently, can take this mile contest. A classy performer who was runner up in the 2001 2000 Guineas hasnt been seen for 112 days and with William Buick needed at Newmarket its James Doyle who comes in for the ride. He looks the pick here.
 
MASTER OF THE SEAS 1 points win @ 7/2 William Hill
 
York 14:35
Next up is the listed 5F John Smith’s City Walls Stakes for three year olds and upwards. Edward Bethel is having a fine season and is currently running at a 42% win ratio. He saddles his five year old Regional here who is ridden by Callum Rodriguez. He’s chasing a hat trick of victories having won a handicap over course and distance and a listed contest at Haydock and although he has to shoulder a 3lb penalty for that latest listed victory can go close.
Karl Burke’s Silky Wilkie went down in a blanket finish in the 5F Epsom Dash last time and is the highest rated off the eleven runner field and has obvious claims along with one of the four three year olds here, Queen Me. She looks the most interesting in the field dropping to the minimum trip for the first time having failed to stay a mile on her re-appearance in the 1000 Guineas and then a credible 6th of 13 (beaten 3L) in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. With Andrea Atzeni in the saddle for the first time she looks the each way value here.
 
QUEEN ME 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
Newmarket 14:50
Twelve go to post for this class 2 bet365 Mile Handicap which,like all of today’s handicaps, has an open look about it.
Clive Cox’s Havana Blue is chasing a hat trick following victories at the two Newmarket courses with his recent victory coming a fortnight ago over 7F. The grey steps up to a mile here and that may bring about further improvement especially with Ryan Moore taking over from John Fahy. William Haggas’s Tafreej won a four runner Yarmouth 1M handicap a fortnight ago and despite a 6lb rise in the weights can also be competitive whilst the Marco Botti runner Royal Dubai, who ran well in defeat at Chester last month will appreciate stepping up in trip.
Quantum Impact is another with claims having excuses for his disappointing run at Royal Ascot in the Britannia Handicap and is yet another with a chance.
An open enough handicap where stakes should be kept small but I’ll chance the Ryan Moore ridden Havana Blue each way.
 
HAVANA BLUE 1 point each way @ 9/2 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
York 15:10
As always a very tight knit handicap in which several can be given chances.
Two of the best handicapped horses are Nobel and Long Tradition who both carry penalties for recent easy all weather success’s and are officially 4lb and 9lb well in here today.
Spirit Dancer ran a stormer in this race last year when he was forced across the track by eventual winner (and future Group one winner) Anmaat. He has an excellent track record and has to be part of the staking plan although a very wide draw of 19 may not be ideal.
 
LONG TRADITION 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456
SPIRIT DANCER 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123456
 
 
Newmarket 15:25
Just the ten go to post for this Group 2 bet365 Superlative Stakes for two year olds.
We have the 5th (Haatem) and 8th (Spanish Phoenix) from the Coventry Stakes at the Royal meeting but it will be a major surprise if one of the front two doesn’t take this.
Charlie Appleby has a great record in this winning four of the last six renewals and was also runner up in this last year. He obviously saddles one of his better juveniles in this contest and this year it’s Great Truth, a well related son of Dubawi who bolted up on his racecourse debut at Leicester over 7F having been well supported into 8/11. He came home 5 1/2L to the good that day and will surely run a big race here.
The big danger has to be the Aidan O’Brien trained City Of Troy, a son of Justify who like his main danger Great Truth made a scintillating winning debut, when spread eagling his field in a 7F maiden at The Curragh a fortnight ago coming home 2 1/2L to the good. He was never stronger than at the finish and Ryan Moore apparently took an age to pull him up.
It’s a hard one to call but at the current prices and with Appleby having such a good record in the race its Great Truth for me in a race where we could be seeing the best two year old seen out so far.
 
GREAT TRUTH 1 point win @ 3/1 Paddy Power
 
York 15:45
Just the six runners for the 1M 6F John Smith’s Silver Cup, a Group 3 event for four year olds and upwards. The warm favourite is the William Haggas trained Hamish who is 6lb better and upwards of this field even with a 3lb penalty for winning the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at Chester back in May. He does like to get his toe in and will be very hard to beat especially if the rain turns the ground on the easy side. Tom Marquand is here to ride which is obviously a bonus and although too skinny to back it will be a surprise if he doesn’t outclass these.
Next best in the race is the Brian Ellison trained stayer Tashkan who was pulled out of both the Yorkshire Cup and Ascot Gold Cup due to the fast ground and is another who needs the ground on the soft side to be seen to his best.
This looks all about Hamish and he’s a confident selection.
 
Newmarket 16:00
A maximum bumper field of 20 have declared for the 7F bet365 Bunbury Cup for three year olds and upwards.
As always theres a very open look about this valuable handicap. Awaal has been placed in the Lincoln and the Royal Hunt Cup this season over a mile although I’m not sure dropping to 7F will be in his favour. Last year’s winner Bless Him and runner up Ropey Guest renew rivalry having swopped stalls positions this time around (what were the chances of that?). Bless Him is a proud better off for 1 1/4L and has claims here again. Back in fourth last year was the William Haggas trained Montassib and although he’s worse off with the pair that finished ahead of that day has the assistance of William Buick and can’t be ruled out.
The only three year old in the race is Eve Johnson Houghton’s Streets Of Gold who was last seen when running third in the jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, goes on any ground and drawn in the middle can go any way jockey Charlie Bishop wants. He’s got future group entries at both Goodwood and York and should run well.
I’ll take him each way with additional places alongside Ralph Beckett’s Biggles who’s drawn in stall 18 and has the assistance of the world’s best jockey Ryan Moore. Moore was on board when winning his side in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot last time and with Beckett among the winners recently can run a big race.
There’s others with good chances but I’ll dutch Streets Of Gold and Biggles.
 
STREETS OF GOLD 1 point each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5th 12345
BIGGLES 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345
 
Newmarket 16:35
A fascinating renewal of the July Cup with the three-year-old sprinters taking on their elders. Shaquille ran an amazing race at Ascot in the Commonwealth Cup when despite starting slowly ran on to run down the hot favourite Little Big Bear and from watching that race it’s hard to feel that the latter can turn the tables especially as his trainer stated in the week that he had missed some vital work since.
That said Shaquille is priced accordingly at around the 7-4 mark and represents scant value at present. The ground is very important to the likes of Kinross and Vadream as both love the mud and can only be considered were the ground to ride soft.
The one to be with at present is Michael Dods’s Azure Blue who is a rapidly improving sprinter who’s taken giant steps this season and may still be on the upgrade if his defeat of arguably the best sprinter around Highfield Princess at York is anything to go by.
Dods is a past master at improving sprinters with the likes of Mabs Cross and Meccas Choice both progressing from handicaps to the top level and he might just have another here in the shape of Azure Blue. Advised in my ante-post piece at 5-1 he still looks value at his current odds.
 
AZURE BLUE 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365
 
All prices were available at time of writing
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Shining Blue                               -    4 00 New/             1/40th of a  pt ew    18/1                 -U/P

Arecibo                                        -    1 45 Asc/               1/40th of a pt ew     33/1                - U/P

Vintage  Clarets                          -    1 45 Asc/               1/40th of a pt ew     16/1                - 3rd

Dawn Of Liberation                   -    3 10 Yrk/                1/40th 0f a pt ew     130/1              - U/P

Howth                                           -   3 10 Yrk/                1/40th of a pt ew     150/1             - N/R

Hathem                                         -  3 25 New/              1/40th of a pt ew     12/1                - 2nd

Graphite                                        - 5 10 New/               1/40th of a pt ew     25/1

Highbank                                       - 2 50New/                1/40th of a pt ew     18/1               - Won

 

 

 

 

 

+164.15 pts

Edited by black rabbit
selections
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For a reason only known to the race planners there are 3 heritage handicaps this Saturday with none the following Saturday. The 1st of these is the catchily titled Ascot/1711 Learning to Work Bake-Off Competition Heritage Handicap. The race is open to 3-year-olds or older and is run over the minimum distance of 5 furlongs. The off time is 13.45.

19 go to post and with most bookmakers offering 5 places it makes it a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

Avoid outsiders. There have been 89 runners with forecast odds higher than 12/1 and all of them have lost.

Good recent form is important. Those horses that did not finish in the first 3 last time have a record of just 2 wins from 96 attempts.

Horses bred in the UK have a good record with 7 wins from 88 runs.

 

2 horses match these criteria.

VINTAGE CLARETS 9/1

BOND CHAIRMAN 10/1

 

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers paying 5 places.

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The second big handicap this Saturday is the John Smith’s Cup at York. It has been sponsored by the Tadcaster based brewery since 1960, making it the longest running commercial sponsorship in British racing.

The race is open to 3-year-olds or older and is run over 1 mile, 2 furlongs and 56 yards. The off time is 15.10.

23 go to post and with some bookmakers offering 6 places it makes it a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

As is often the case, the key stat is weight. Light weights do not perform well with those carrying less than 9st 3lbs having achieved only 2 wins from 116 attempts. Those horses carrying a heavier weight have recorded 7 wins from 58 starts and have delivered a profit at Betfair Starting Price of 69 points.

Horses drawn high do not have a good record with those drawn 12 or higher having just 2 wins from 88 attempts.

It is best to concentrate on those horses at the lower end of the betting forecast. Those horses with forecast odds of 14/1 to 25/1 have produced 6 wins from 103 runs with a profit of 52 points.

 

 

4 horses match these criteria.

WHITE WOLF 14/1

CADILLAC 16/1

CERTAIN LAD 25/1

PRIDE OF AMERICA 33/1

 

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers paying 6 places.

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The final major handicap this Saturday is the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket. The race is named after Sir Charles Bunbury who introduced the 1,000 Guineas and the 2,000 Guineas.

The race is open to 3-year-olds or older and is run over 7 furlongs. The off time is 16.00.

20 go to post and with most bookmakers offering 5 places it makes it a good betting proposition.

 

I have looked at the statistics over the last 9 years and these are my key conclusions.

Again the key stat is weight. Light weights do not perform well with those carrying less than 9st having achieved only 1 win from 69 attempts. The ideal weight range is 9st to 9st 4lbs, these horses have won 6 times from 49 starts and have delivered a profit at Betfair Starting Price of 61 points.

Horses drawn high have the best record with 5 of the 9 winners being drawn in stalls 14 to 19.

3- and 4-year-olds do not have a good record with 3 wins from 61 runs and a loss of 28 points.

 

2 horses match these criteria.

CRUYFF TURN 25/1

BIGGLES 9/1

I suggest backing these each way with bookmakers paying 5 places.

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I've rated the John smiths cup 

See the casper  9.0 8/1 

Haunted dream  8.9 17.0 

Spirit dancer   8.9  11.5 

Majestic   8.4 

Marhaba the champ 8.4 

Tricky race and the weather could play a big part and spoil the party but I'll try 5pt wins top 3 as they are a bit clear of rest 😉 

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On 7/13/2023 at 4:17 PM, richard-westwood said:

Bunbury cup 

Awaal  9.0 15/2 

Biggles  8.9 9/1 

Streets of gold  8.8 9/1 

These 3 are clear of rest .....biggles is ridden by Ryan Moore who has placed at least in 5 of last 6 running of race I think ....so at 8/1 ew 7 places with sky that looks a cracking bet but I'll try 10pt wins all 3 with a view to another carry over bet next week if any wins 🏆 

😲 im only 5 places on Betfair! BUT do have 2 accounts as 1 in my partners name 😎.......put these 3 on 'her' account 👍

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Friday night....

Great write up again by The Brigadier......not doing anything this evening, so have fresh look tomorrow ( plus we about to have our drinks /  Indian takeaway now  😂).....

but think will go with 'instinct' again re Kevin stott / paul mulrennan / Easterby stable today worked a wonder! 

8PM....also thank god i did not back the Brits in Paris this evening, bombed out so far with 1 race to go!.... been put in my place by Mrs as she picked big race winner Grand Prix Paris £378,000 to winner was  'Feed the flame'....  won twice before longchamp on soft / good to soft she said, what do i know 😂  

Edited by Brahmin
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22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I've rated the John smiths cup 

See the casper  9.0 8/1 

Haunted dream  8.9 17.0 

Spirit dancer   8.9  11.5 

Majestic   8.4 

Marhaba the champ 8.4 

Tricky race and the weather could play a big part and spoil the party but I'll try 5pt wins top 3 as they are a bit clear of rest 😉 

Re rated this on soft and only real change it made was raise certain lad from 6th to 3rd so I've added him to my team 5pt at 33/1 

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Navan 1.50

nordic passage 

Sosallycanwait

both win 

both knocking on the proverbial door and Nordic passage’s day may come here as the highest drawn runner on soft going.

absences may be the key as often the case in big field handicaps as the horses slip into the energy gaps left by the non runners. Lots of candidates but these due are due wins and both on tumbling marks

***********************
placed fourth and third so in the zone.

 

Edited by sporting sam
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1400 yor few mb offers including virgin guaranteed mb.

Went with aramaic/wild lion and virgin bet on  blue for you. 

..

Actually wild lion was virgin mb, blue for you was via sky bet @ 6/1, never updated my list when checking best odds, lol, so good profit so far.

Edited by fd1972uk
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York the city walls

2.35

Silky wilkie

win

ground has come right and won’t get a better chance here.

plrnty of key rivals in the right stalls are missing too.

on a good mark and key piece of form close second at Epsom and wide margin drubbing on soft of vintage clarets in Scotland.

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Hamish gave me more of a fright than Biggles, lol. Nice double up.

Nice tipping guys , as opted for the bigger stake for these 2

Waiting on Ghathanfar at 1730 yor for double with Hamish .

Shaquille in next, will settle for top 3 as it'll give me a couple more free bets for US racing through the week when on break.

 

Edited by fd1972uk
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On 7/13/2023 at 4:17 PM, richard-westwood said:

Bunbury cup 

Awaal  9.0 15/2 

Biggles  8.9 9/1 

Streets of gold  8.8 9/1 

These 3 are clear of rest .....biggles is ridden by Ryan Moore who has placed at least in 5 of last 6 running of race I think ....so at 8/1 ew 7 places with sky that looks a cracking bet but I'll try 10pt wins all 3 with a view to another carry over bet next week if any wins 🏆 

Masterful ride by Ryan Moore to take it on the line ....I'll add the 100 to the carryover win last week of 205 and 45 the last couple days that makes 350 and I can get a ps5 which was the target 😀 for 351 from argos with my family's 10% discount ....so that's another prize completed 😀 

Start afresh next week 

Edited by richard-westwood
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