Racing Chat - Thursday 6th July

[black rabbit]

Protected Guest            -                                 7 00 Kem/                1/4 pt win     28/1

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Good luck with that Richard.  I presume that if you win you will then revert to normal stakes until you get another win and then go for another rollover. Keep re-investing winnings bookies money has to lead to losing it all.  I may be a bit thick today but what does a ps5 for 389 mean?

Anyway, I feel that now is a good time for me to invest a bit more in your selections.  I like your ratings because unlike the likes of TImeform and Racing Post's RPR that only look at the best horse in at the weights your ratings take into account many other factors.  Here's what I'm going to do.  I am setting aside a 200-point pot and will invest 5% of the pot in each of your races.  Hence it will start at 10 points per race.  If you select 2 or 3 horses I will split the 10 points accordingly.  Any prices up to 9/1 will be "win" bets and 10/1 above will be each way.  I will review the balance at the end of each day's events and re-calculate my balance.  For the next event, I will once again bet to 5% of the pot.  I will keep doing this until either my betting bank is exhausted or if I am lucky enough to be betting up into the 100's I will cap each bet at 100 points.  Profits and losses will count towards my YTD figures.

I wonder what @Zilzalian or any other PL members make of this?  I hope that I don't put the mockers on your selections. 

If the bank doubles then the stakes should double if the bank halves then the stakes should halve. Personally i do my own stuff although i have a lot of respect for @richard-westwood and his ratings.

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Maybe because my star sign is Aries which means I can't help coming up with new ideas.  Sorry

Other peoples new ideas you mean surely.

[Zilzalian]

42 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Luckily I know they're absolute nonsense but then I've always been cynical as a typical Scorpio!

Personally i take a balanced view being a libra, but its all a load of bollocks. 🙃

[Sporting Sam]

Happy valley

3.50

Reward Smile

Win

Three consecutive seconds after breakthrough win here on first run since winning at Windsor.

Well treated and settling in to life on the rock. Prolific winner Zac Purton takes the ride.

Edited July 6, 2023 by sporting sam

[harry_rag]

3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

its all a load of bollocks

Wow, spooky! Read that whilst listening to Pearl's Cafe by the Specials (for which the chorus is that phrase repeated a few times). To be fair I have been playing the same playlist on repeat but it's still a coincidink!

[Zilzalian]

2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Wow, spooky! Read that whilst listening to Pearl's Cafe by the Specials (for which the chorus is that phrase repeated a few times). To be fair I have been playing the same playlist on repeat but it's still a coincidink!

Bit of Ska kills no one personally love the original stuff, Prince Buster, Toots and the Maytals et al

[The Equaliser]

26 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Other peoples new ideas you mean surely.

Not all. I can't wait to use A I with horse racing. However, @Valiant Thor's thoughts on this would be much appreciated haha

[Sporting Sam]

20 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

Happy valley

3.50

Reward Smile

Win

Three consecutive seconds after breakthrough win here on first run since winning at Windsor.

Well treated and settling in to life on the rock. Prolific winner Zac Purton takes the ride.

Possibly one of the best jockeys on the planet.

Reward smile rewards Zac Purton with his 1600 th winner. 🏆.

[richard-westwood]

19 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Found a race 

410 hay 

Significantly     8.2 11/4 55 pts 

Roundhay Park    8.0 13/2 40pts 

To return 205 or 300pts ....its a free shot using bookies money 💰 can get a ps5 for 389 so roundhay would go most of the way and I'd top up the rest so let's take a shot at that ....gotta be worth the play 

Significantly lands the spoils ...returns 205 .....not quite the ps5 lol but I'll put the money in side account and start again Saturday in Newton cup see if can get the 180 needed to complete the challenge 😉 

Edited July 6, 2023 by richard-westwood

[Sporting Sam]

 

Haydock 4.45

HIDDEN PASS

Win

A breeze up purchase for 400k and holds potentially a significant advantage having been put through paces already  on a course. Charlie Appleby has got William Buick in the saddle and he rode a four timer at Windsor this week.

Tipperary 5.10

The first juvenile hurdle of the season in Ireland and the road to Cheltenham begins here. 

 

That's jet

Win

Has been heavily backed to win

25s into 7/2.

Hopefully will open higher.

Bedelia

Each way.

Only winner in the field and won on last run for Gavin Cromwell and debuts for shark Hanlon.

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by sporting sam

[Brahmin]

backed both 10pts each  and about to be paid @ 4/1 winner with Significantly 👍💷 so thank you and well done richard

[richard-westwood]

8 minutes ago, Brahmin said:

backed both 10pts each  and about to be paid @ 4/1 winner with Significantly 👍💷 so thank you and well done richard

Yeah I don't get bog ...😭

[Brahmin]

Bellew 4.55    Fleetfootsoldier   13/2 EW     Won        &       Lightupthesky   28/1 EW              4 places   betfair  

Bellew 5.25    Pink socks  13/2 EW      &    Sunset Nova    10/1 EW                                4 places

Bellew 5.55    Simply sideways  6/1 EW   4th      &     Sadiquaa      12/1 EW                         4 places

 

nice win  👍 🏆 & EW place, so with other win from Richard 🏆 made nice profit over 60 pts 💷

Edited July 6, 2023 by Brahmin

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Kempton 7.35

FLYAWAYDREAM

[azzybear]

boyfriend 6.05

[azzybear]

tack 5.55 ew 

[azzybear]

aces high 5.50 ew 

[azzybear]

hashoffman 6.30 ew 

[richard-westwood]

5 hours ago, ivans82 said:

Nothing today , but typical of the British Horse Racing programme , the Eclipse goes on Saturday with just 4 runners.......incredible .Anmaat who was splashed all over the front page of the Racing Post yesterday now out with a foot abcess the day after , hope nobody steamed in after the article yesterday .

Yes I'm struggling to find races to rate ....literally only 1 race in next few days .....its disappointing 

[Villa Chris]

Just noticed I Love My Baie in the 2.18 at Perth has set a good time on his hurdle debut. 4.7 seconds fast on what I’d say is good ground but on the easy side of good. Keep an eye on him I think. 

[Villa Chris]

22 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

6.15 Tipperary Sharjah 11/8

RP forecast as him down 5/1 favourite which is miles off.  He went up at 7/4 and quickly went into 11/8.  14 runners level weights grade 3 race and he’s the class act in the field.  Easy money? We shall see, but he still retains plenty of class even at 10. 
 

5 points win 

3.48 Perth Captain Zebo 3/1 bog 

drops down into a class 4 and is in pretty good form.  The favourite will be dangerous if he can show what he’s capable of, but the selection ran a really strong race lto and remains on same mark. This is easier .

5 points win 

2nd and 3rd . Disappointed I couldn’t make a small profit with Sharjah who went off at 8/13 but seemed a bit lacklustre in the finish.  Apart from Monday I’ve been off work rough with Covid so hopefully there’s a few races to keep me entertained tomorrow. 
 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +130.19

[Sporting Sam]

Kempton 7.35

Kingori

Win

Billy mill

Each way

[Bang on]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Not all. I can't wait to use A I with horse racing. However, @Valiant Thor's thoughts on this would be much appreciated haha

Isn't A I just the sum of a lot of other peoples views ?

I would try and find your own angle. @richard-westwood uses ratings, @Villa Chris also uses ratings, but I doubt they are exactly the same. @Zilzalian uses speed figures. @MCLARKE uses stats, and I'm sure others have their own methods, some of which may be similar but slightly different. We all have success and failure (we can't win all the time), it's trying to find something that you are comfortable with, and in my own case doesn't take hours of study.  Hope you find yours soon.

[Sporting Sam]

Newbury 9pm

Exertive

Each way

Well worth a go on reappearance.

Even though six lengths behind a progressive rival, sparks fly that one has gone on to complete a multiple win sequence at a higher level after missing top engagements at Haydock and royal ascot.

Valkyrian a length and a half further back and lady of Arabia who was last that day at Windsor, have both won since.

No suprise if Exertive can compete in this grade if fit and ready.

********************************

Unfortunately  Exertive not at the races.

Sergeant pepper

Reward smile

Two winners for Zac Purton in Hong Kong.

Hidden pass couldn't quite get home on his debut and he was collared on the line by an enterprising ride by Jim Crowley.

Edited July 6, 2023 by sporting sam

[The Equaliser]

38 minutes ago, Bang on said:

Isn't A I just the sum of a lot of other peoples views ?

I would try and find your own angle. @richard-westwood uses ratings, @Villa Chris also uses ratings, but I doubt they are exactly the same. @Zilzalian uses speed figures. @MCLARKE uses stats, and I'm sure others have their own methods, some of which may be similar but slightly different. We all have success and failure (we can't win all the time), it's trying to find something that you are comfortable with, and in my own case doesn't take hours of study.  Hope you find yours soon.

When someone develops an A I plugin for horse racing it should be able to sift through all the data of all the horses in a race in seconds.  It can look at each horse in the race in great detail and should come up with the most likely winner of the race from all angles such as class, distance, course, surface, weight, form, going etc.  I would love to have a program that could hone in on all the above factors for each horse in a race in seconds so that I could make an informed decision and pick the one that looks to be the best at value odds.     Whatever methods the sporting press uses their tipsters invariably come up with a horse that is backed into favouritism which really isn't the horse with the best chance of winning the race at value odds.  "People say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one" John Lennon  🙂

[Villa Chris]

You know what happened to John 

[harry_rag]

5 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

You know what happened to John 

I don’t envisage @The Equaliser marrying a Japanese avant garde artist to be honest mate.

[Villa Chris]

2 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

I don’t envisage @The Equaliser marrying a Japanese avant garde artist to be honest mate.

I don’t know, bit of a dark horse I reckon 

[harry_rag]

17 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

When someone develops an A I plugin for horse racing it should be able to sift through all the data of all the horses in a race in seconds.  "People say I'm a dreamer but I'm not the only one" John Lennon  🙂

Well you certainly won’t be the only one! Leaving aside the fact that I think you’re conflating AI with the processing power that computers already possess anyway I suspect that by the time what you want exists and is available to you then everyone will have it and it will be of minimal intrinsic value. You can bet (unintentional irony) that the bookmaking industry, professional punters and the “trade press” will have sucked all the marrow out of it by then.

One of the first uses you could see (given the fuss about it being used by students to write essays) is it being used to write previews with tips for the day’s racing, i.e. you could see copy that is generated without the need for a journalist. For now the tips would be no better than any existing predictive program that someone might have built. You’ll just be left wondering whether the tips have been written by a real journalist or Mr AI Addio!

The notion that you are likely to gain a material edge in your betting from anything AI related strikes me as unlikely. But we could all probably use it to impersonate ourselves on here, write all our posts and responses. We’ll have to start questioning whether we’re interacting with real members or an AI chatbot. The question “is he real or what” will take on a whole new resonance!