Racing Chat - Thursday 6th July

[Villa Chris]

6.15 Tipperary Sharjah 11/8

RP forecast as him down 5/1 favourite which is miles off.  He went up at 7/4 and quickly went into 11/8.  14 runners level weights grade 3 race and he’s the class act in the field.  Easy money? We shall see, but he still retains plenty of class even at 10. 
 

5 points win 

3.48 Perth Captain Zebo 3/1 bog 

drops down into a class 4 and is in pretty good form.  The favourite will be dangerous if he can show what he’s capable of, but the selection ran a really strong race lto and remains on same mark. This is easier .

5 points win 

Edited July 5, 2023 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

Found a race 

3 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

1st and 3rd .... -20 for stakes ....so 95.00 stakes for free  rollover ....I'll keep an eye out for suitable race over coming days 

410 hay 

Significantly     8.2 11/4 55 pts 

Roundhay Park    8.0 13/2 40pts 

To return 205 or 300pts ....its a free shot using bookies money 💰 can get a ps5 for 389 so roundhay would go most of the way and I'd top up the rest so let's take a shot at that ....gotta be worth the play 

[kensland]

Haydock 

Double. 

4.10. Khuman             10/1

5.10. Slippin.  Jimmy     5/1

singles & double 

stk 6.00       rtn 166.00

Good luck all. 

 

 

[kensland]

Time for a Ralp Beckett treble. 

Patent. 

2.40. Hayd. Sweet Fantasy       13/2     3rd

6.05. Newb. Starlust                  5/1        1st 

7.35. Kemp.  Tiempo Star         9/2

stk 3.50       rtn 192.88

Good luck all. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by kensland

[Sporting Sam]

Happy valley

1145

Beauty Nova.

Happy jai jai

Both win.

Equal chances for these two previously highlighted.

[Sporting Sam]

Happy Valley 

1215

Kurpany

Each way

Takes a big drop in class here and although he hasn't shown up well in group company, he's a course winner and won last time in this grade at Sha Tin . 

14/1 plus and even in this six runner field well worth a look. Needs second place to pay out.

Favourite stolz should go well and is odds on.

*********************************

Jockey broke well but held up to slot in.

Was very well placed to take second but the initial ease in pace told and missed out on second by inches.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by sporting sam

[ivans82]

Nothing today , but typical of the British Horse Racing programme , the Eclipse goes on Saturday with just 4 runners.......incredible .Anmaat who was splashed all over the front page of the Racing Post yesterday now out with a foot abcess the day after , hope nobody steamed in after the article yesterday .

[Sporting Sam]

Happy valley

1245

Happy gathering

Win.

Knocking on the door.

Pull at the weights might just be enough, but rival still nearly a stone clear despite six pounds rise.

Have also taken the 11/8 about three places.

Edited July 6, 2023 by sporting sam

[Sporting Sam]

4 minutes ago, sporting sam said:

Happy valley

1245

Happy gathering

Win.

Knocking on the door.

Pull at the weights might just be enough, but rival still nearly a stone clear despite six pounds rise.

Have also taken the 11/8 about three places.

Tragedy strikes, happy gathering was "under a ride" and didn't look to be taking the going at all, and when asked for it, collapsed. Didn't look too good for horse or Hugh Bowman who was thrown towards the rail. 🤞 That they are both ok .

[Sporting Sam]

Happy valley 1.15

314-4130-090068068623-723626246423

Happy Angel

Each way

Has been getting closer and closer.

Last win under Jamie Spencer at Newmarket may 21 rated 96 in a class three. Now rated 46 and while it doesn't equate equally to a fifty pound difference, it is still a lot.

[The Equaliser]

17 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Found a race 

410 hay 

Significantly     8.2 11/4 55 pts 

Roundhay Park    8.0 13/2 40pts 

To return 205 or 300pts ....its a free shot using bookies money 💰 can get a ps5 for 389 so roundhay would go most of the way and I'd top up the rest so let's take a shot at that ....gotta be worth the play 

Good luck with that Richard.  I presume that if you win you will then revert to normal stakes until you get another win and then go for another rollover. Keep re-investing winnings bookies money has to lead to losing it all.  I may be a bit thick today but what does a ps5 for 389 mean?

Anyway, I feel that now is a good time for me to invest a bit more in your selections.  I like your ratings because unlike the likes of TImeform and Racing Post's RPR that only look at the best horse in at the weights your ratings take into account many other factors.  Here's what I'm going to do.  I am setting aside a 200-point pot and will invest 5% of the pot in each of your races.  Hence it will start at 10 points per race.  If you select 2 or 3 horses I will split the 10 points accordingly.  Any prices up to 9/1 will be "win" bets and 10/1 above will be each way.  I will review the balance at the end of each day's events and re-calculate my balance.  For the next event, I will once again bet to 5% of the pot.  I will keep doing this until either my betting bank is exhausted or if I am lucky enough to be betting up into the 100's I will cap each bet at 100 points.  Profits and losses will count towards my YTD figures.

I wonder what @Zilzalian or any other PL members make of this?  I hope that I don't put the mockers on your selections. 

Edited July 6, 2023 by The Equaliser

[The Equaliser]

I have posted up a 2 points L15 and an ew Acca in the daily 15 for 2 points.

5.50 Km The Ferret 0.50 ew at 22/1 3p

4.10 Hayd Significantly 6 points win at 3.8 (can get 4.50 now but bookies best price is still 9/4) and 4 points win at 10.0 = 10 points @richard-westwood'split is roughly 60/40 on both selections

Total points = 13 today

[harry_rag]

10 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I may be a bit thick today but what does a ps5 for 389 mean?

Had to chuckle at that bit as it took me a while to decode it. I believe ps5 = "Playstation 5", a popular child's toy. I assume £389 is the price one can be had for. 

One can only hope that @richard-westwood is considering buying it for a child as, otherwise, now wouldn't seem the best time to start investing heavily in his judgement! 

It's bad enough that he's suddenly turned into an "all-in" merchant!

[harry_rag]

15 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I wonder what @Zilzalian or any other PL members make of this? 

Partly why can't you find an approach that suits and stick with it for more than 5 minutes without feeling the compulsion to tinker but partly it's not the worst idea you've ever had. (Not being funny, just my genuine reaction when I read the post and as you asked I thought I'd share.)

[The Equaliser]

13 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

Partly why can't you find an approach that suits and stick with it for more than 5 minutes without feeling the compulsion to tinker but partly it's not the worst idea you've ever had. (Not being funny, just my genuine reaction when I read the post and as you asked I thought I'd share.)

Maybe because my star sign is Aries which means I can't help coming up with new ideas.  Sorry

[Sporting Sam]

Happy valley 2.15

Sergeant pepper 🌶️

Win

Down to winning mark and just failed running below it last time.

Pushed up two pounds for the effort.

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Good luck with that Richard.  I presume that if you win you will then revert to normal stakes until you get another win and then go for another rollover. Keep re-investing winnings bookies money has to lead to losing it all.  I may be a bit thick today but what does a ps5 for 389 mean?

Anyway, I feel that now is a good time for me to invest a bit more in your selections.  I like your ratings because unlike the likes of TImeform and Racing Post's RPR that only look at the best horse in at the weights your ratings take into account many other factors.  Here's what I'm going to do.  I am setting aside a 200-point pot and will invest 5% of the pot in each of your races.  Hence it will start at 10 points per race.  If you select 2 or 3 horses I will split the 10 points accordingly.  Any prices up to 9/1 will be "win" bets and 10/1 above will be each way.  I will review the balance at the end of each day's events and re-calculate my balance.  For the next event, I will once again bet to 20% of the pot.  I will keep doing this until either my betting bank is exhausted or if I am lucky enough to be betting up into the 100's I will cap each bet at 100 points.  Profits and losses will count towards my YTD figures.

I wonder what @Zilzalian or any other PL members make of this?  I hope that I don't put the mockers on your selections. 

Tbh I used to bet like this years ago ....me,and my workmate used to throw 20 or 30 quid each in kitty and we'd bet then rollover any winner minus stake ......we had a fair few big wins ....400pts + ...... yes its crap when yiu lose but you are losing nothing in effect as you were made whole by returning your stake .....

I think for me it returns the fun factor of a rollover and a shot at a known prize .....if you lose you lose .....but like today if I win and go to shop tomorrow and get a ps5....I'll look at it and smile thinking the bookies paid for most of that 😀

I think overall its a slow build up to breaking the bank ....its time to step up and go for it ......once I've got a few smaller wins under the belt I'll go for a bigger one then take a,shot at winning say a car ...my friends are convinced it is a cert I can do it .......I think it can be done if I choose the right strong races ......if I can win a car then I'll finally feel like I've arrived as a serious punter.....I have to know if I can do it 😌 only 1 way to find out ....it'll happen or it won't 

I've ran the numbers .....in big races 2 rollovers at an average 9/1 woukd pay 2 grand plus.....throw in a 16/1 and your up to 3 grand (a cheap car ) ....that's just 2 rollovers .....3 races rolled over gets you 10 grand plus ....a,decent car ....just predict 3 races after the initial win and you drive away ......its not impossible it can be done with the right races ....Good ratings and a touch of luck 

The ps5 is a good first target ...doable ....I've had one of every console my whole life ....only one I've not had is ps5 so I can cross that off then ........I think 2ndc target might be a nice 52 inch TV to go with it 🤔......then I can set my sights on something bigger once I've got that on the shelf lol 😆 

Edited July 6, 2023 by richard-westwood

[Villa Chris]

22 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Maybe because my star sign is Aries which means I can't help coming up with new ideas.  Sorry

If that’s the case start doing your own ratings. Really doesn’t have to be complicated and it isn’t anyway. Keep tinkering until you’re happy with what you have and see how it runs. It’s more fun and there’s no emotional decisions to be made regarding who’s riding for who etc . Some of the ways I was picking selections before were woeful but you live and learn. I’m still not 100% happy now but as it stands I’m confident  enough that I can make a profit with how I’m betting but we’ll see .

Edited July 6, 2023 by Villa Chris

[Sporting Sam]

Yarmouth 2.30

CHIQUITA 

Win 

Poor run on hat trick and over priced here if returning to form.

[Bang on]

43 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Maybe because my star sign is Aries which means I can't help coming up with new ideas.  Sorry

You believe in star signs as well ?

[harry_rag]

1 minute ago, Bang on said:

You believe in star signs as well ?

Luckily I know they're absolute nonsense but then I've always been cynical as a typical Scorpio!

[Sporting Sam]

Yarmouth 3pm

Eulace Peacock

Win

Well bred newcomer 

[The Equaliser]

33 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

If that’s the case start doing your own ratings. Really doesn’t have to be complicated and it isn’t anyway. Keep tinkering until you’re happy with what you have and see how it runs. It’s more fun and there’s no emotional decisions to be made regarding who’s riding for who etc . Some of the ways I was picking selections before were woeful but you live and learn. I’m still not 100% happy now but as it stands I’m confident  enough that I can make a profit with how I’m betting but we’ll see .

Ratings seem to be a big puzzle to me.  Race Advisor do them. Horseracebase do them.  None of them seems to make any sense to me at all.  Worse still, they all provide lots of losers

[Villa Chris]

7 minutes ago, Bang on said:

You believe in star signs as well ?

My missus swears by them. She’s got an old book give to her by some old mystic. Maybe if we could find out when the actual birthday of an horse is it might help us. 

[Villa Chris]

Just now, The Equaliser said:

Ratings seem to be a big puzzle to me.  Race Advisor do them. Horseracebase do them.  None of them seems to make any sense to me at all.  Worse still, they all provide lots of losers

Yep I used to be the same regarding figures but I find the more you put into horse racing the easier numbers are . It’s a numbers game after all. Ignore those sites do your own it’s better 

[The Equaliser]

9 minutes ago, Bang on said:

You believe in star signs as well ?

I also believe that one day I will have a big win in the Lottery.  I am ever optimistic too

[The Equaliser]

1 minute ago, Villa Chris said:

Yep I used to be the same regarding figures but I find the more you put into horse racing the easier numbers are . It’s a numbers game after all. Ignore those sites do your own it’s better 

How? and what angles should I build in?

[harry_rag]

36 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

I've ran the numbers .....in big races 2 rollovers at an average 9/1 woukd pay 2 grand plus.....throw in a 16/1 and your up to 3 grand (a cheap car ) ....that's just 2 rollovers .....3 races rolled over gets you 10 grand plus ....a,decent car ....just predict 3 races after the initial win and you drive away ......its not impossible it can be done with the right races ....Good ratings and a touch of luck 

With respect (and there's a considerable amount of that for your approach to finding winners) I think most other punters would be better off following your selections if so inclined but giving a wide berth to that approach to staking. I just think it's generally ill advised to decide that one bet is worth (say) 10 x the stake of the previous one when they're probably similar strength bets in your overall opinion. I can never buy into the notion that you've lost nothing or it's the bookies' money you're playing with. Once the first winner is banked it's my money and I can't justify a disproportionate bet on the next selection.

Each to his own I guess but, for most punters, that way of staking would be a benefit only to the bookies. I'd rather be the tortoise and win a car every 500 bets or so!

[Villa Chris]

4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

How? and what angles should I build in?

The most important ones are can the horse win or be competitive at the distance, can the horse run its race on that particular going. Is the horse good enough to win in that class , is the horse handicapped to win or is he too high in weights. I’ve also started taking into consideration form as well.  Pretty basic stuff really and imo there’s not much else that matters. 
 

p.s I sometimes take into account courses but not often 

Edited July 6, 2023 by Villa Chris

[Villa Chris]

7 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I also believe that one day I will have a big win in the Lottery.  I am ever optimistic too

You’re a Sheffield Wednesday fan as well are you.