Cazoo World Championship

[charliepie]

That was disappointing, thought he'd turned it around today but loses 10-8.

[four-leaf]

Jackson Page to beat Martin Gould at 2.02 in-play with Unibet

Doesn't Page have what it takes here I don't know what he has.

[charliepie]

Gould is experienced but on the decline so Page certainly has at least a 50/50 chance in this match, leading 5-4 overnight I see.

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, charliepie said:

Gould is experienced but on the decline so Page certainly has at least a 50/50 chance in this match, leading 5-4 overnight I see.

I was impressed by Jackson Page in the Welsh open when he knocked out Mark Williams pretty easily

[four-leaf]

@Fader will Gould turn around or will Page run away? Will it end 10-9 for Page?

[four-leaf]

I feel Page got this now..

[charliepie]

Fairly easy in the end, tonight might throw up a few tight finishes as most of the matches are quite finely balanced with half of them not completing the 9 frames in the first session.

[Fader]

sorry lads, been really busy with the PGA tournament. Great call on Page beating Gould. 

[charliepie]

Final round today and tomorrow, strange that the session times are 11am and 5pm as it doesn't leave much of a break for some of the traditionally long drawn out grind-fests we seem to get every year as the stakes are high to get that Crucible place!

[Simeon Borisof]

Well, Walden has to be the bet for today. He has a hell of a record against Un - Nooh and is yet to lose. The only concern is that all of these wins were in short formats / first to 6/.

[charliepie]

He was looking well in @ 4-1 up but Theppy reeled off the final 4 frames to lead 5-4 so it's all to play for tonight.

[Fader]

On 4/11/2023 at 3:23 AM, charliepie said:

Final round today and tomorrow, strange that the session times are 11am and 5pm as it doesn't leave much of a break for some of the traditionally long drawn out grind-fests we seem to get every year as the stakes are high to get that Crucible place!

yeah, personally I think they should have the two days crossed over. I.e, session 1 top half then session 1 bottom half and then same again the next day. Bit of an odd thing to do having them play 11am to potentially 4.30pm and then starting again at 5pm.

[Fader]

good call on Walden. Day beat Donaldson 10-0. Wow  

Hoping for Xu Si to beat Junxu for 6/1 winner. Much needed. Looking forward to this all starting for real now.

[charliepie]

I guess it's good that they don't let them start a new frame if it's gone past 3pm so they get a decent break. Hamilton is ridiculously slow so it's probably just as well they restart at 5pm so they can finish before midnight! It's a shame Donaldson had to retire at 0-4 due to the covid vaccine tremors returning to haunt him, I'm so glad I never took the vaccine as my spidey-senses told me there was something not right about the rushed rollout. What a great 146 by Day though in the opening frame!

Edited April 12, 2023 by charliepie

[Fader]

23 minutes ago, charliepie said:

I guess it's good that they don't let them start a new frame if it's gone past 3pm so they get a decent break. Hamilton is ridiculously slow so it's probably just as well they restart at 5pm so they can finish before midnight! It's a shame Donaldson had to retire at 0-4 due to the covid vaccine tremors returning to haunt him, I'm so glad I never took the vaccine as my spidey-senses told me there was something not right about the rushed rollout. What a great 146 by Day though in the opening frame!

ahh OK, I didn't know about that. Donaldson tends to get ill quite a lot. I remember he went out to be sick several times in the Championship League when I had him to win the event. He was in the final against Higgins and winning and was white as a sheet. Surely he had the vaccine a while ago. I've not heard of any issues he's had with tremors. That's interesting. I've not managed to watch much of these qualifiers so I thought Day had won 10-0. Day looks to be playing well then with the 146.

[charliepie]

Yeah, he had the tremors in 2021 or 2022 and it seems to be a recurring problem for him. I think he's based at one of the Edinburgh snooker clubs(someone told me the Locarno).

Play has finished early for a change, how tragic for Mark Davis missing that easy pink to win 10-9 and stay on the tour, strange what pressure can do to your cueing...

The Chinese squad have done well, shame that both Thai players didn't make it through though Noppon squeaked it on the final black. 60 hours to go until the curtain rises at the Crucible!

Edited April 12, 2023 by charliepie

[Fader]

Here's the draw then :

Ronnie/Junxu
Ding/Vafaei
-----------------
Brecel/Walden
M.Williams/J.Robertson
-----------------
Trump/McGill
Lisowski/Saengkham
-----------------
Milkins/Perry
Murphy/Jiahui
------------------
Allen/Zhengyi
Bingham/Gilbert
------------------
Carter/Jones
N.Robertson/Yize
------------------
K.Wilson/Day
Higgins/Grace
------------------
G.Wison/Slessor
Selby/Selt
 

[charliepie]

I I think the top 16 seeds will all be reasonably happy with the draw and I confidently predict that at least a dozen of them will progress to the second round with perhaps Slessor, Walden, Perry and one of McGill/Noppon causing an upset? Another Murphy vs Selby final with Shaun winning this time though I would love Ronnie to get his eighth:-)

Edited April 13, 2023 by charliepie

[Fader]

I'll probably be taking Junxu on a handicap as I've heard Ronnie still has his elbow issues. However, assuming Ronnie is indeed ok then here is my final 8

Ronnie vs M.Williams
Trump vs Murphy
Allen vs Carter
Higgins vs Selby

Mark Williams has to be the value bet really as I already have Murphy. I've got bets already on McGill and Carter. If pushed id say Allen vs Selby SF and Williams against Trump. 

come on Shaun.

 

[Fader]

2pts e/w Selby to win Worlds 11/2 paddypower
2pts e/w M.Williams to win Worlds 20/1 paddypower

already tipped up
2pts e/w Murphy to win Worlds 20/1 paddypower
0.5pts e/w Carter to win Worlds 50/1 paddypower
0.5pts e/w A.McGill to win Worlds 66/1 paddypower

[Fader]

Just Walden as a single bet tomorrow for me. I thought about going for Gilbert but then I had a look at the head-to-head and was quite amazed. I haven't seen a worse head-to-head really. They've played 12 matches and Bingham has won every single one. Although last match was 3 years ago.Never played the Worlds, too. Gilbert normally plays well here and so perhaps still value. 

Walden though I think can beat Brecel. Not that I think Walden is playing particularly great but I'm not convinced with Brecel at all and Walden won the last 5-2 last year, also. 

4pts Walden to beat Brecel 5/4 paddypower
-----------------------------------------------
2pts Day 1 accy - Over 16.5 frames (Bingham vs Gilbert) / Walden / Yize (+4.5 frame handicap) / Carter 8.5/1 paddypower
-----------------------------------------------
2pts Round 1 accy - Walden +2.5 / Yize +4.5 / M.Williams -1.5 / Selby -2.5 / K.Wilson -2.5 10.5/1 bet365

[charliepie]

The elbow injury is certainly concerning, caused by signing thousands of his merch items! I, like you, was also surprised by some of the h2h stats. Luca is quite inconsistent so you may have a decent shout there though Walden hasn't exactly been on fire this year either. Williams is a good cover bet to give you another runner in the top half and it would be nice to see Jack beat Judd for a change!

[Fader]

I also looked into the centuries bet we tried last year but ZERO value. Such a shame.

I'm glad it's a nice early 10am still tomorrow. I really want to have a bet on the Ronnie match but I just can't find much. 

[Torque]

16 minutes ago, Fader said:

I also looked into the centuries bet we tried last year but ZERO value. Such a shame.

I'm glad it's a nice early 10am still tomorrow. I really want to have a bet on the Ronnie match but I just can't find much. 

He's got to be worth opposing in some guise surely. Elbow issues, lack of form, form for early losses here in the past.

[Torque]

I've only had one bet so far which is for a 147 in the tournament at a boosted 3.00 with 365. Even with the boost I'm not sure it's worth it, but at least it gives an interest in potentially every match.

[Fader]

10 minutes ago, Torque said:

I've only had one bet so far which is for a 147 in the tournament at a boosted 3.00 with 365. Even with the boost I'm not sure it's worth it, but at least it gives an interest in potentially every match.

That's why I like the century bet. It's interest in every match. 

[Fader]

15 minutes ago, Torque said:

He's got to be worth opposing in some guise surely. Elbow issues, lack of form, form for early losses here in the past.

Perhaps Junxu to win the 1st session? 

[Torque]

1 minute ago, Fader said:

Perhaps Junxu to win the 1st session? 

That might be worth a shout. I'm tempted by the handicap also. If I was braver I'd even be interested in the match line as I'm still having nightmares about the Cahill debacle from a few years back. One thing seems fairly certain based on previous results here - either O'Sullivan goes all the way or he goes out early and this isn't an easy match as far as I can tell. Junxu is talented so it's just about whether he can hold his nerve and as Cahill was able to I don't see why Junxu can't as well.

[Fader]

2 minutes ago, Torque said:

That might be worth a shout. I'm tempted by the handicap also. If I was braver I'd even be interested in the match line as I'm still having nightmares about the Cahill debacle from a few years back. One thing seems fairly certain based on previous results here - either O'Sullivan goes all the way or he goes out early and this isn't an easy match as far as I can tell. Junxu is talented so it's just about whether he can hold his nerve and as Cahill was able to I don't see why Junxu can't as well.

I've had a look and at 4/1 for Junxu to basically win 4-0 or 3-1 the first 4 frames. 

what could be tempting at a big price is :

either play to win 3 frames in a row? No! 20/1 bet365

[Torque]

1 minute ago, Fader said:

I've had a look and at 4/1 for Junxu to basically win 4-0 or 3-1 the first 4 frames. 

what could be tempting at a big price is :

either play to win 3 frames in a row? No! 20/1 bet365

That last price looks big. Maybe worth a small stake. I'd say all the lines will be skewed in favour of O'Sullivan to the point that level stakes on anything to do with Junxu would have a decent chance of generating a return.