Racing Chat - Saturday 28th January

[The Brigadier]

As long as Cheltenham passes it’s inspection we have some excellent National Hunt racing this afternoon with the ITV cameras showing 5 races from there with a further 3 coming from Doncaster. The ground at the latter will ride on the good side whilst it will race softer at Cheltenham with the official going description calling it soft. Here’s my thoughts on the eight races covered by ITV today :

 

Cheltenham 1.20

Re-routed from the abandoned fixture at Ascot last Saturday, the Albert Bartlett Clarence House Chase now has six runners as opposed to the three that stood their ground then. It does really looks a match between Willie Mullins’ Energumene and Alan King’s Edwardstone. The latter comes here following a fall at Kempton over Christmas and preference has to be for Energumene who won last years Champion Chase and can take this and put himself spot on for the defence of his title in March. He’s too skinny to back and this really is just a race to watch. Edwardstone can chase him home.

 

Cheltenham 1.50

A maximum turnout of seventeen for this 2m 4F 127 yards handicap chase which on paper looks wide open. Richard Hobson’s Fugitif comes here on the back of an impressive victory at Chepstow over Christmas and a 10lb rise in the weights may not be enough to stop him following up here under Gavin Sheehan. Paul Nicholls’ Il Ridoto has finished 4th in two similar handicap here this season and with another one pound drop in the weights should also be thereabouts. Several others can be given chances but I’ll stick with Fugitif each way with the extra places the bookmakers will be offering.

 

FUGITIF 2 points each way @ 9/2 Betfred 1/5 12345

 

Doncaster 2.05

This 2m 128 yards grade 2 mare’s hurdle looks there for the taking for Nicky Henderson’s consistent nine year old mare Epatante. She’ll be a very short price and the 2020 Champion Hurdle winner will have no Constitution Hill to worry about having chased him home on both her starts this season at Newcastle and Kempton. She’s officially got 12lb and upwards in hand of her rivals and with good ground suiting this slick jumper should be winning all be it at prohibitive odds.

 

Cheltenham 2.25

Six runners go to post for the Paddy Power Cotswolds Chase run over 3m 1 1/2F. The form horse is The Skelton’s Protektorat who was very impressive in the Betfair Chase back in October. Given a ten week break he can take this en route to a bold bid to improve on his third place in last year’s Gold Cup. His main danger has to be the Irish trained runner Noble Yeats who has taken his form to a new level this season winning at Aintree in good fashion last time. There’s only officially 3lb between them but my preference is for Protektorat.

 

PROTEKTORAT 3 points win @ 13/8 bet365

 

Doncaster 2.40

Ten go to post for the grade 2 3M 84 yards River Don Novices’ Hurdle which has been used in the past as a stepping stone to the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. Irish raider Grand Soir is the highest rated and chasing a four timer so John C McConnell’s seven year old should be thereabouts. I like the Paul Nicholls trained Stay Away Fay who looked another good prospect from the Ditcheat stables of Paul Nicholls when winning on his hurdling debut at Newbury in November. His trainer spoke in good terms afterwards about this six year old and the step up to three miles looks certain to suit him. Lorcan Williams comes in for the ride with Harry Cobden riding at Cheltenham.

 

STAY AWAY FAY 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365

 

Cheltenham 3.00

A small but select field of seven go to post for the Cleeve Hurdle run over just short of three miles. Emma Lavelle’s Paisley Park has won the last three renewals and will be very hard to beat under his usual jockey Aidan Coleman. He’s now eleven years of age but is not showing any deterioration in his form having won at Kempton over Christmas. Dashel Drasher mixes hurdling with chasing and maybe his biggest danger with Paul Nicholls’ Gelino Bello reverting to hurdles now following a heavy fall at Kempton over fences at Christmas. This is all about the favourite Paisley Park though and I fully expect him to get the four timer in this race up.

 

PAISLEY PARK 3 points win @ 11/8 BetVictor

 

Doncaster 3.15

The feature race of the day at the Yorkshire track is the Skybet Chase formerly known as the Great Yorkshire Chase. Twelve have declared for the handicap run over three miles. Top weight and current favourite is Jamie Snowden’s Ga Law who hasn’t been seen since November when winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup. He’s up 8lb and is trying three miles for the first time. With a slight doubt over the trip he’s opposable at his current odds. Last year’s winner Windsor Castle is back to defend his title but comes back here in no form whatsoever having pulled up on four of his five starts since. Third last year was Christian Williams’ Cap Du Nord who went on to win a valuable handicap chase at Kempton the following month and after some modest runs finds himself 2lb lower than that win here. I like the progressive Tea For Free who’s won all four of his chases in handicap company under Lily Pinchin who is in the saddle today and looks sure to give his trainer Charlie Longsdon a big run. He’s gone up 33lb for those four victories but may still have more to offer and with conditions to suit can give Pinchin her biggest win to date.

 

TEA FOR FREE 2 points each way @ 11/2 Paddy Power 1/5 1234

 

Cheltenham 3.35

Eleven staying novice hurdles face the starter for this grade 2 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle run over 2m 4 1/2F. There’s many who can be fancied including Dan Skelton’s Pembroke and Paul Nicholls’ Henri The Second who both come here in fine form and it’s the latter that takes my eye. Nicholls has a fine team of novices this season and the six year old looked smart when winning the Ballymore Winter Novices’ Hurdle at Sandown in December. He’s penalised 5lb for that win but may be too good for his rivals under Harry Cobden.

 

HENRI THE SECOND 2 points win @ 3/1 William Hill

 

 

[Tedthewolf]

0.2pts  e/w L15   bog Ber365 = 6pts

12.40 CH-SINGING BANJO 8/1 4P

1.50 CH-SILVER HALLMARK 16/1 5P

3.15 DON-WINDSOR AVENUE 18/1 4P

4.10 CH- CAMPOUND 20/1 5P 

2pts e/w  1.50 CH- SILVER HALLMARK 16/1 BOG 5P= 4pts

Total  Invested 10pts 

P/L + 29.31

 

 

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Tedthewolf

[calva decoy]

Football tomorrow so record & watch ITV racing & only 1 speculative bet .

3.15 Donc - WINDSOR AVENUE 20/1 eway bet365 ( 4 places ) 

4th 28/1 bog ?

Won this last year off 2Lb lower , has terrible recent form being pulled up 4 times & one 4th placed effort , however , will relish the fast surface Saturday compared to ground with cut where's been pulled up .

Edited January 28, 2023 by calva decoy

[MCLARKE]

This Saturday sees the running of the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster, 1st ran in 1948. This premier handicap is run over 3 miles and is open to horses aged 5 years or older.

Just 12 go to post this year and the off time is 3.15.

Most bookmakers offer each-way terms of 4 places which makes the race a good betting proposition.

Whilst this is a class 1 race it is not a good pointer for Cheltenham. In the last 9 years no Cheltenham winners have come from this race.

NOT FOR THE YOUNGSTERS

I have looked at the statistics for this race and these are my key conclusions.

1.       Young horses do not have a good record in this race. Horses aged less than 10 years have won 4 times from 84 attempts with a level stakes loss of 50 points. Their older competitors have won 5 times from 39 attempts and produced a profit of 88 points.

2.       It is best to avoid those horses at the top of the markets. Those horses in the 1st 4 in the betting have won 2 times from 42 runs with a loss of 24 points. The remainder have a record of 7 wins from 69 runs with a profit of 74 points.

3.       It is best to sidestep those horses with obvious form. Horses that have had more than 1 win in their last 6 runs have produced just 1 win from 44 attempts with a loss of 34 points. Those with 0 or 1 win have produced 8 wins from 79 attempts with a profit of £72.

4.       Claiming jockeys have a poor record. They have not won any races from 28 efforts. All the winners have been ridden by experienced jockeys, generating a profit of 63 points.

There are 2 horses that match these criteria.

CLOTH CAP – available at 10/1 with BET365

WINDSOR AVENUE – available at 20/1 with several bookmakers. Windsor Avenue won this last year, although he has been pulled up in 4 of his 5 attempts since then.

I recommend backing both of these each way 4 places

 

·         All odds accurate at the time of writing, 11.59 am 27th Jan

 

[jonjo]

12.20 at Doncaster, going up in trip for the first time in a Handicap is  Galahad Threepwood, consistent sort who was staying on in fourth and not beaten far last time out over two miles in a race where the 5th, 9th, 12th and 13th placed horses have all come out and won next time, solid form, took 11/4 and will see what happens on the exchanges tomorrow..............trading at 2.06 and going well when fell, not low enough for me to trade out either.

12.33 at Lingfield, it took Lordsbridge Girl 7 attempts to get off the mark, the 2nd and 4th have come out to win again so maybe a 3lb penalty wont be enough to stop her tomorrow, win and 2 places,  although as ever, Jamie Spencer might!! Currently best at 9/4 and about 3.7 on the Exchanges for now and drifting.......................................................................nice to get on the board, Spencer almost cocked it up but just got there WON Bfsp of 5.51 and 2.94 in the 2Tbp market.?

12.40 Cheltenham, Delta Work should take this and then have a nice break before winning again at the Cheltenham Festival in March, the class act of the race and he has won over the distance and his most recent race will have improved him. Around the 5/2 mark but on the Exchanges you can get 4.2 which was taken, a saver on the 13 yr old Singing Banjo who was only beaten a short head by Delta Work last time and has a huge 25lb pull in the weights, currently best at 17/2 or a drifting 17 on the exchanges, 4Tbp market..................Delta Work beaten fair and square into 3rd place.

3.00 Its Paisley Park again for me, he is 4/8 over course and distance with two places as well, he's in great form and didnt take a lot of picking really, Dashel Drasher for the place too, only once at tis sort of distance and that was over fences, didnt fair too badly either..and 2.4 for a place!. PP is around the 2.6 mark on the Exchanges...................................................stuffed

2.40 Doncaster, Paul Nicholls is not known for having big race winners at this time of the year but I think his Stay Away Fay can win the Grade 2 event. The former point winner won nicely on rules debut comfortably beating a 129 rated horse and looked a good stayer in the making, the extra half mile tomorrow should suit, currently 11/4best priced and on the Exchanges very similar at 3.8, win and 2Tbp.

3.15 Doncaster, the 600 day break hasnt stopped GA Law looking impressive in his two return races, first a third placed effort in a good race followed by winning the Paddy Power at Cheltenham, still just a 7 yr old so the 8lb rise will hopefully not be enough to stop him in this Class 1 Skybet Handicap Chase. Right now 3/1 is the best available but drifting and 4.2 on the Exchanges, 5.6 taken today and 3.2 in the 2Tbp market..................................? Fell at the last 

 

As always, in running lay off prices will be placed.

 

Good luck whatever you are on tomorrow.

Edited January 29, 2023 by jonjo

[black rabbit]

Simpley The Bets                                   1 50 Che/         £25 ew     22/1      { 1/20th of a pt staked }

Bonttay    { now N/R }                                                  3 35 Che/        £ 25 ew     16/1      {  1/20th of a pt staked }

Hurrican Bay                                          2 40 Don/        £ 25 ew     22/1      { 1/20th of a pt staked }

Minella Times                                       12 40 Che/        £ 25 ew     28/1     {  1 20th of a pt staked }

Stone Of Desteny                                  2 18 Lin/          1/20th   of  a pt win    9/1

 

 

 

P/L  +158.50 pt

Edited January 28, 2023 by black rabbit

[MCLARKE]

The big handicap chase at Cheltenham this Saturday is the Paddy Power Podcast Handicap Chase (not the catchiest title I’ve ever seen!). This premier handicap is run over 2 miles, 4 furlongs and 127 yards. It is open to horses aged 5 years or older.

17 go to post and the off time is 1.50.

Most bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 places (William Hills 6) which makes the race a very good betting proposition.

It could be worth making a note of the winner of this race. Frodon won this in 2018 before winning at the Cheltenham festival the following year. Sirrah Du Luc won this in 2019 before winning at the festival a few weeks later.

DON’T WORRY ABOUT THE WEIGHT

I have looked at the statistics for this race and these are my key conclusions.

1.       Those horses high in the weights have a good record. Horses carrying more than 11st 6lbs have won 5 times from 25 attempts with a level stakes profit of £15. Their lighter opponents have a record of 3 wins from 62 attempts with a loss of £36.

2.       Inexperienced horses have performed much better than their more experience competitors. Horses that have had more than 17 career runs have not had any successes from 29 attempts.

3.       Forecast favourites have a poor record with no wins from 9 attempts.

There are 2 horses that match these criteria.

CARIBEAN BOY – available at 33/1 with PP (6 places).

BRAVE SEASCA – available at 12/1 with WH (6 places).

I recommend backing both of these each way

[kensland]

Cheltenham. 

Double. 

1.50. Karl Phillippe        12/1    unpl

4.10. Punctuation           4/1    4th

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited January 28, 2023 by kensland

[MCLARKE]

The last race at Cheltenham this Saturday is the SSS Super Alloys Handicap Hurdle. This class 2 handicap is run over 2 miles and 179 yards and is open to horses aged 4 years or older.

16 go to post and the off time is 4.10.

Several bookmakers offer each-way terms of 5 places which makes the race a good betting proposition.

This is a relatively low-key event and the key protagonists are unlikely to be seen in the winner’s enclosure at the Cheltenham festival.

TAKE A BREAK

I have looked at the statistics for this race and these are my key conclusions.

1.       Horses should ideally have a reasonable rest. There have been 31 horses that last ran less than 28 days ago and they have all lost. Those that last ran between 28 and 76 days ago have 8 wins from 45 attempts and a level stakes profit of £21.

2.       Those horses in the top 3 of the betting have not performed well. They have provided just 1 win from 28 runs and a loss of 23 points. The less fancied horses have produced 7 wins from 50 runs and a profit of 11 points.

3.       It is best to side with horses that have shown winning form in their last 10 runs. Those horses that have not won have a record of 0 from 12.

4.       Lower weights have a better record than their heavier opponents. Horses carrying more than 10st 12lbs have won just 2 from 40 with a loss of14 points.

There are 4 horses that match these criteria.

PIKAR – available at 9/2 with LADBROKES.

NELLS SON – available at 14/1 with BET365.

HYSTERE BERE – available at 18/1 with PP.

MALAKAHNA – available at 25/1 with BET365.

I recommend backing these each way

[Zilzalian]

Different eyes see different things

1:20 Cheltenham. watching Edwardstones previous race i can't help but think that Editeur du Gite may well have won anyway, if watched again it travelled strongly and even powered away so i am not sure Edwardstone would have reeled him in. Energumene is just one horse, never fear one horse.  i have watched it closely and i am not sure this beast is anywhere near value because it does not look a natural jumper to these eyes so 12/1 Editeur Du Gite looks cracking price even for the EW backers. 2 places

1:50 Cheltenham I quite like Precious Eleanor in this race at the price of 25/1 has no weight to carry, i also wouldn't put anyone off the twisters gg Guy at around 14/1.

3:00 Cheltenham Gold Tweet has got to be considered good value at 28/1 against horses that we already know everything about, one negative is the distance so this might be a sighter from the frenchman  Leenders with a view to options at the festival.

2:00 Donc TWIG must have a good squeak in what looks an open novice hurdle I always expect mistakes in these races and we will see a few in this, Twig has Hunter chase and point form so i expect less mistakes from this 12/1 shot.

315 Donc Coopers Cross hasn't done much wrong 20/1 covers the stamina doubt.

[fd1972uk]

It's a goer.

[cannotbebeat]

Doncaster

12.20 - Fringill Dike 9/2

1.35 - Cormier 18/1

2.05 - Epatante 2/7

3.15 - Windsor Avenue 28/1

3.50 - Eyeofthescorpion 15/2

4.25 - Monteplex 20/1

Lingfield

1.08 - Geralt Of Rivia 5/2

Uttoxeter

1.27 - Claras Soldier 40/1

3.42 - Autonomous Cloud 3/1

Cheltenham

1.50 - Karl Philippe 10/1

4.10 - Punctuation 7/2

Kempton

5.30 - Six Oclock Swill 40/1

6.30 - Saratoga Spirit 9/1

8.00 - Cool Lightning 5/2

8.30 - Rays The One 9/1

Good luck all CNBB.
 

[kensland]

Uttoxeter. 

Double. 

1.57. Fairfield Ferrata        4/1     1st 

3.07. Animal                      7/2       unpl

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

Edited January 28, 2023 by kensland

[fd1972uk]

Betfair multis (free up fbs once concluded)

Che dbl

1140 Jupiter de gite

1240 delta work

Favs tbl

Che 1320 Energumene

Don 1405 epatante 

Che 1425 protekorat 

 

1210 Che stage star - ballsed up bet on 888, never noticed it had changed to sp instead of current, arseholes changed it at bog time, doh.

 

1215 utt fazayate

Dbl utt 1327 rambo t & don 1335 boothill

 

1350 Che

Note volatus ew

Brave seasca ew

 

1440 don stay away fay

1500 Che gelling bello itv4 b365

1550 don great d'ange

1610 Che hacker des places

Got a few coral bet bundles to use so will be doing a few more and see what betfair gives me available to bet.

 

Good luck all.

 

[azzybear]

Dixon cove 11.40 

[azzybear]

datsalrightgino 12.10 ew 

[kensland]

Cheltenham. 

Single. 

1.50. Precious Eleanor         14/1

Good luck all. 

[fd1972uk]

What was Moore doing on that horse at 1140, did someone tell.him it was a sprint.

2nd with mb and stage star win, bloody annoyed about the sp issue also done me out of a free bet.

[MCLARKE]

Odds on selection

Doncaster

2.05

Epatante

3/10

[MCLARKE]

D McCain runners

Doncaster	1.35	Since Day One
Uttoxeter	2.32	A Different Kind
Uttoxeter	3.07	Gold Emery
Cheltenham	4.10	Barrichello
Uttoxeter	4.17	Nefyn Point
Doncaster	4.25	Dino Bellagio

[Trotter]

14 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Different eyes see different things

1:20 Cheltenham. watching Edwardstones previous race i can't help but think that Editeur du Gite may well have won anyway, if watched again it travelled strongly and even powered away so i am not sure Edwardstone would have reeled him in. Energumene is just one horse, never fear one horse.  i have watched it closely and i am not sure this beast is anywhere near value because it does not look a natural jumper to these eyes so 12/1 Editeur Du Gite looks cracking price even for the EW backers. 2 places

Nice one .......... well done !

[The Equaliser]

Win double

4.10 Chelt Punctuation 7/2 (2 pts win at 5.3)

7.00 Km Mawkeb 9/2 (2 pts win at 7)

1 x 2 pt win double = poss ret 49.50

I was going to back Pembroke 3.35 Chlt in a Trixie but the payout is about the same for a double as its price is very short

Singles:

2.25 Chelt Noble Yeats  1 pt win at 4.1 (Protekorat should win but Noble Yeats keeps finding improvement so looks food for a 1 pt win)

2.53 Ling Ferrobin 0.50 win at 33/1 (good hurdler and has boy wonder aboard so worth half a point IMO

3.15 Don Cloth Cap 0.50 win at 10/1 (looks like @richard-westwoodonly runner left in so worthy of support)

4.10 Chelt Might I 1 pt win at 6.4 (will possibly run well so a cover bet looks justifiable)

Total stakes = 9 pts today

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Bit unlucky with Might I but Punctuation disappointing.

With @Zilzalianin such good form I have had 0.50 ew at 45/1 4TBP  Vazir 7.30 Km = poss return of 28 points

Total stakes now 10 points

2 pts on Fighting Poet  in the last at Km at 3.65 (Didn't get matched)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A blank day which was a pity.  - 10 points MTD -28.15

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[The Equaliser]

LAY BET

2.53 Lin Berkshire Breeze 2.04 @1.93 = 2 v (1.90).  This is 6 lbs better off with Now Then Wendy for a length bearing so has a great chance of reversing the form.  However, it looks worth taking on with at least two other horses in the race that could give it a run for the money

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Andrew Balding got it right with Berkshire Breeze today.  Won well.  MTD is -6.40

Edited January 29, 2023 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[Trotter]

19 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

LAY BET

2.53 Lin Berkshire Breeze 2.04 @1.93 = 2 v (1.90).  This is 6 lbs better off with Now Then Wendy for a length bearing so has a great chance of reversing the form.  However, it looks worth taking on with at least two other horses in the race that could give it a run for the money

That's one of the races I looked at with my new AW speed figures 

I've got

Casa Luna 1st,
Polemon 2nd and
Now Then Wendy 3rd

[Trotter]

drat ....... Berkshire Breeze wins ............ ?

[Zilzalian]

16 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Different eyes see different things

1:20 Cheltenham. watching Edwardstones previous race i can't help but think that Editeur du Gite may well have won anyway, if watched again it travelled strongly and even powered away so i am not sure Edwardstone would have reeled him in. Energumene is just one horse, never fear one horse.  i have watched it closely and i am not sure this beast is anywhere near value because it does not look a natural jumper to these eyes so 12/1 Editeur Du Gite looks cracking price even for the EW backers. 2 places

1:50 Cheltenham I quite like Precious Eleanor in this race at the price of 25/1 has no weight to carry, i also wouldn't put anyone off the twisters gg Guy at around 14/1.

3:00 Cheltenham Gold Tweet has got to be considered good value at 28/1 against horses that we already know everything about, one negative is the distance so this might be a sighter from the frenchman  Leenders with a view to options at the festival.

2:00 Donc TWIG must have a good squeak in what looks an open novice hurdle I always expect mistakes in these races and we will see a few in this, Twig has Hunter chase and point form so i expect less mistakes from this 12/1 shot.

315 Donc Coopers Cross hasn't done much wrong 20/1 covers the stamina doubt. what do you reckon @LEE-GRAYS?

[Zilzalian]

6 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Booooooooommmmmm

[Trotter]

Three big priced winners there Zilzal ! ....... brilliant

?

[Zilzalian]

16 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Different eyes see different things

1:20 Cheltenham. watching Edwardstones previous race i can't help but think that Editeur du Gite may well have won anyway, if watched again it travelled strongly and even powered away so i am not sure Edwardstone would have reeled him in. Energumene is just one horse, never fear one horse.  i have watched it closely and i am not sure this beast is anywhere near value because it does not look a natural jumper to these eyes so 12/1 Editeur Du Gite looks cracking price even for the EW backers. 2 places

1:50 Cheltenham I quite like Precious Eleanor in this race at the price of 25/1 has no weight to carry, i also wouldn't put anyone off the twisters gg Guy at around 14/1.

3:00 Cheltenham Gold Tweet has got to be considered good value at 28/1 against horses that we already know everything about, one negative is the distance so this might be a sighter from the frenchman  Leenders with a view to options at the festival.

2:00 Donc TWIG must have a good squeak in what looks an open novice hurdle I always expect mistakes in these races and we will see a few in this, Twig has Hunter chase and point form so i expect less mistakes from this 12/1 shot.

315 Donc Coopers Cross hasn't done much wrong 20/1 covers the stamina doubt.

I don't often do write ups but when i do i do it with a Carlsburg in my hand 

[yossa6133]

Your eyes are clearly working pretty well! Epic selections there.