Racing chat- Saturday 15th Oct

[Villa Chris]

3 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Market Rasen 3.37 

Tamaroc Du Mathan 9.45 7/2

Guy 8.9 3/1 

Kiltearly Briggs 8.9 7/1

Killer Clown 8.7 4/1 

Top rated is a little bit clear of the rest and is probably the class horse in the race if ready to go . Not much between the rest in what is a competitive race . 
 

5 points win top rated 

Pulled up. The 3 below fill the first 3 places with Kilteary Briggs winning just holding off Guy .

14 points profit on the day 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +19.42 points 

[Zilzalian]

BOOM £1,300 tricast £61.00 forecast. and a mugs double bay bridge and Bayside Boy. £442 win double to a fiver. A good day indeedy.

[Zilzalian]

3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

BOOM £1,300 tricast £61.00 forecast. and a mugs double bay bridge and Bayside Boy. £442 win double to a fiver. A good day indeedy.

Never was a Frankel was it Baaeed? too far back trip and ground.

Edited October 15, 2022 by Zilzalian

[richard-westwood]

9 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

BOOM £1,300 tricast £61.00 forecast. and a mugs double bay bridge and Bayside Boy. £442 win double to a fiver. A good day indeedy.

Well done 

 

[Villa Chris]

13 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

BOOM £1,300 tricast £61.00 forecast. and a mugs double bay bridge and Bayside Boy. £442 win double to a fiver. A good day indeedy.

Well done and well earned ?
 

Gathering the double was just a bit of fun because similar names? 

Edited October 15, 2022 by Villa Chris

[The Brigadier]

On 10/14/2022 at 8:31 AM, The Brigadier said:

The ground looks set to ride on the soft side of good to soft for Saturday’s Champions Day at Ascot. Here’s my thoughts on the six races.

 

Ascot 1.25

Eight stayers assemble for the 2M Long Distance Cup. Alan King’s Trueshan has won this contest for the last two years and is the one they all have to beat here. He has to put a disappointing effort at Doncaster behind him when going off at 2/9 and beaten a head by the re-opposing Coltrane when taking too keen a hold. But for that effort I feel he would be around an even money chance and I’m willing to forgive him that one off day and he’s the selection. I wouldn’t be shocked if Andrew Balding’s Coltrane was to run well although the biggest dangers to Trueshan will probably come from the two three year olds in St Leger winner Eldar Eldarov who’s stepping up to two miles for the first time and Aidan O’Brien’s Irish Cesarewitch winner Waterville although an interesting fact is that eighteen three year olds have tried to win this race and none have succeeded. Official ratings have that pair 7lb and 16lb behind Trueshan with the former the most likely to chase my selection home. Quickthorn had a hard race in France last time and Ebor winner Trawlerman has plenty to do here.

 

TRUESHAN 3 points win @ 15/8 bet365

 

Ascot 2.00

Eighteen sprinters go to post the 6F Group 1 Champions Sprint. Kinross arrives in excellent form having won his last three starts over 7F and drops in trip here. He could only finish 9th in this last year and the trip may well be his undoing. Creative Force won this last year on similar ground and is reportedly in excellent shape so Charlie Appleby’s four year old has to be part of the staking plan. Art Power has attracted money over the last 24 hours and can be competitive although was behind Creative Force last year in this. Rohaan is four from five at the Berkshire track and teed up for this with a comfortable Group 3 win over course and distance a fortnight ago. He must go well although his only defeat here was in this very race last year when well beaten. Perfect Power also has a good track record winning two from two here and looks the best of the four three year olds. The best outsider and worth backing small each way with enhanced places is Charlie Hills’ Garrus who followed up a Group 3 victory at Deauville with a career best one length third in the Prix Maurice De Gheest at the same track a month later. That form looks red hot now with the winner Highfield Princess winning two group ones since and the runner up Minzaal also following up with victory in a group 1. A nose behind Garrus that day was Rohaan and it baffles me how he can be a 4/1 chance today whilst Garrus can be backed at 25/1.

 

CREATIVE FORCE 2 points each way @ 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

GARRUS 1 point each way @ 25/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 2.40

Next up is the 1M 4F Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes. Current favourite is John and Thady Gosden’s Emily Upjohn who’s not been seen since pulling her chance away in the King George Vl and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in July. Throw in the fact that she’s not encountered easy ground on the race track and she’s a lay for me although the first time hood shouldn’t be seen as a negative with his stable having a good record when applying the hood for the first time. The Gosden’s also run Mimikyu who improved for a first time hood when an easy winner of the Park Hill by 2 3/4L from the re-opposing Eshaada. She has claims IF the hood works again. Eshaada won this last year in a battle with Albaflora and a case can be made for the pair of them here. William Haggas saddles Sea La Rosa who won over a two furlong longer trip on Arc Saturday last time and is a progressive filly. French trainer Francois Graffard saddles the ex Australian Verry Elleegant and Sweet Lady who beat Lilac Road in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp last time. The latter is consistent and improving and appeals each way with enhanced places in what looks an open renewal. Charlie Appleby’s Eternal Pearl is yet another improver who’s won her last four starts and should also be in the shake up under William Buick. A tough call but I’ll play Sweet Lady and Eternal Pearl each way.

 

SWEET LADY 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

ETERNAL PEARL 1 point each way @ 5/1 bet365 1/5 1234

 

Ascot 3.20

Only nine go to post for the Queen Elizabeth ll Stakes run over the straight mile. John and Thady Gosden’s Inspiral is a warm favourite at around evens and looks sure to be there at the finish. She bounced back to form at Deauville in August when winning the Prix Jacques Le Marois making it six wins from seven career starts. Whether she deserves to be as short as she is is another matter mind and at the current odds I’m against her. Officially rated a pound behind her main rival here in the Charlie Appleby trained Modern Games who was a very easy winner in America a month ago having previously chased home the superstar Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. Both of those excellent efforts came on fast ground but he has shown winning form earlier in the season on officially good to soft when winning the French 2000 guineas (though Timeform rate the ground as good). He maybe the value bet against the favourite. Simon and Ed Crisford’s Jadoomi has been supplemented for this and is chasing a fourth straight win this season and is only officially rated 7lb behind Modern Games. French challenger The Revenant won this event two years ago and was 4th last season. He would only be on the radar if the ground was to change to very soft (unlikely). I’ll go with the Godolphin runner each way.

 

MODERN GAMES 1 1/2 points each way 4/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Ascot 4.00

Eight opponents take on the unbeaten Baaeed in this 10F Champions Stakes. This is predominately a no bet race just a sit back and enjoy contest with William Haggas’s Baaeed bowing out following an exceptional career having won all ten of his starts with the last six all being in group one company. It will be a major shock were he not to get the job done having looked better than ever when stepping up to 10F last time when beating Mishriff 6 1/2L. Charlie Appleby’s Adayar is the closest to him in the ratings and he can finish runner up before a trip to the Breeders Cup for the Breeders Cup Turf (for which the current 6/1 looks very tempting). The other seven all have far too much to find and this is Baaeed’s to lose.

 

Ascot 4.30

The most competitive race on the card is the last with the one mile Balmoral Handicap featuring a maximum field of twenty. A case can be made for many of these and currently the bookmakers are betting 7/1 the field. Blue For You, Escobar, Orbaan and Tyrrhenian Sea all tie in together on their York form at the Ebor meeting and all four have claims. William Haggas saddles three runners in the shape of Bashkirova, Sweet Believer and perhaps the most interesting in Montatham. The latter hasn’t been seen since finishing down the field in this race last season at 100/1 but is the galloping companion of Baaeed’s no less so has to be given some respect. Last year’s 2nd and 3rd Symbolize and Magical Morning are back to try and do better and it wouldn’t be a surprise if there were involved in the finish. The horse I like however is David Menuisier’s Migration. Not seen since runner up to Modern Games in the Newbury Spring Cup last April he’s a decent handicapper who loves to get his toe in. His two wins last season were gained over 10F so will be finishing strongly with the jockey booking of William Buick an eye catching one. In a race that is very open he’ll do for me each way with enhanced places.

 

MIGRATION 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

A loss of 3.07 points today although the nap won at 15/8 and a couple of places. 

[black rabbit]

On 10/14/2022 at 1:00 PM, black rabbit said:

Momtatham   4 40 Asc/         1/20 th of a pt ew   22/1 

Vintage Clarets   3 15 Catt/   1/10 th of a pt win    9/1 

Castle Star     2 00 Asc/         1/20th of a pt ew   28/1

Checkandchallange  3 20 Asc/   1/20 th 0f a pt ew    20/1

Waterville     1 25  Asc/             1/10 th 0f a pt win    5/1

Bay Bridge   4 00 Asc/           1/20 of a pt win    10/1

Eshaad        2 40 Asc/             1/20 of a pt win     15/1

 

 

 

 

 

P/L   +  160,55 pts

Bay Bridge   delivers  and Montatham placed {extra places}  Vintage Clarets 2nd

[fd1972uk]

A few winners but in the end a loss, had a few on baaeed who decided to run like a coo in its last race, lol

[calva decoy]

On 10/14/2022 at 9:24 AM, calva decoy said:

Football Saturday afternoon & Boxing Saturday night with the record button hit to watch Racing highlights in-between .

Ascot ( all prices Thursday 2.15pm & all bet365 )

200- NAVAL CROWN 10/1 eway ( 5 ) won the Jersey on soft in 2021 & Platinum Jubilee on good to firm in 2022 , like it here but it's October not June , place claims .

240- ALBAFLORA 20/1 eway ( 4 ) finished 2nd in this race last year behind Eshaada but far better off in weights this time around .

400- DUBAI HONOUR 33/1 eway ( 3 ) was 2nd in this race last year , will very much appreciate the cut , wears 1st time cheekpieces , could be a Haggas 1-2 or 1-3 .

440- SYMBOLISE 16/1 eway ( 6 ) finished 8th in this race in 2020 off a mark of 104 , improved last season finishing 2nd off 102 , is off the same mark on Saturday with claimer taking a further 5Lb off .

125-TRUESHAN 15/8 he's had quite a tough season but likes it here & is looking for hat trick of wins in the race , the more showers before the race the better .

320- INSPIRAL 11/10 , only blip in her career was when she finished 2nd in the Falmouth , looking to be the first filly since Minding in 2016 to win this race & then we get the tears & Frankie announcing his retirement .

TRUESHAN / INSPIRAL Win Double 5.03/1 .

Just watched the highlights , blimey , was all downhill after race 1 with the 2.00 spawning a 150/1 placed horse , 2.40 a 50/1 & 80/1 placed 3.20 a 33/1 winner , 4.00 the superstar ( only at 8f ) turned over by a 10/1 shot & lastly an 80/1 winner , Champions Day eh , more like Dart Job Day , congratulations to anyone in pocket on the day ?

 

[calva decoy]

6 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Me too. Plus a free £5 bet on the Liverpool / Man City match, £5 bet credits and £7.50 from their Goals Giveaway offer. £22.50 freebies without having to do anything. Best bookie by miles for me but others obviously have a different experience.

I keep forgetting the reveal on goals giveaway only valid after 2pm but have had a few & also the £5 for Liverpool v City & a massive £1 bet builder on Sky .

[MCLARKE]

9 hours ago, calva decoy said:

I keep forgetting the reveal on goals giveaway only valid after 2pm but have had a few & also the £5 for Liverpool v City & a massive £1 bet builder on Sky .

I still get the SKY bet club £5 per week although they have increased the amount to be staked to £30 and increased the minimum odds to 1/1.

I also get the £5 a week Bet Victor loyalty club offer although again this offer has changed. It used to be bet £25 and get £5, it is now bet £25 and win a prize from £1 to £25. I was a bit sceptical about this as the first few weeks I won £1. However this week I did win £25.

Over the last 7 years I have had £15k in free bets. I get about 95% of this back in profit.

I know the bookmakers still get a bad press but in my opinion it is much easier to make money these days than it was when I started betting in the early 80s.