Racing Chat - Friday August 19th

[The Brigadier]

York 1.50

A near maximum field of nineteen go to post for this 1m 4F heritage handicap. It’s wide open with many having claims. The draw can be important here with a wide draw not ideal. William Haggas’s Mahrajan has claims in first time cheek pieces. Cormier would have been the selection if the ground was soft following a good win at Chester last time as he still looks well handicapped. William Knight’s Moktasaab can run well although I’m not sure stepping back up to 1m 4F is what he really wants. An outsider I think can run well and worth a small each way interest with the extra places is Kevin Ryan’s Thundering. The only three year old in the field he may have more improvement to come and his latest second beaten a head by Pride Of Priory on the all weather at Newcastle has been boosted by the subsequent victory of that horse at the Shergar Cup. He’s been raised 2lb for that and has the assistance of the under used Josephine Gordon today.

 

THUNDERING 1 point each way @ 11/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

York 2.25

The group 2 Lonsdale Cup is a cracker this year. run over 2m 56 yards of the Knavesmire it features the Gosden’s Stradivarius who’s won this race three of the last four years and is unbeaten here in six starts. Placed on his last two starts behind Aiden O’Brien’s super stayer Kyprios at Royal Ascot and Goodwood he looks sure to run well under Andrea Atzeni. A length and a quarter behind him at Goodwood was Alan King’s Trueshan who’s chance will increase if by any chance the track was hit by any thunderstorms as he loves to get his toe in. It’s hard to fancy Coltrane and Tashkan who appear held by the aforementioned pair whilst Quickthorn may do best of the rest. But I feel this may turn out to be a straight shoot out between Stradivarius and Trueshan with preference just for the former with the ground likely to be more in his favour than Trueshan.

 

STRADIVARIUS 2 points win @ 11/8 BetVictor

 

York 3.00

A dozen fast juveniles assemble for the 6F group 2 Gimcrack Stakes. Coventry third and Richmond winner Royal Scotsman looks the one they all have to beat although he does have to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his Goodwood victory. Karl Burke’s Marshman steps up in grade having looked a smart prospect when winning at Ayr and Thirsk. He’s hard to assess but shouldn’t be dismissed lightly. Charlie Appleby’s Noble Style also steps up in class following victories at Ascot and Newmarket and this 525,000 Gns yearling looks smart. I’ll be surprised if the winner doesn’t come from one of this trio although I was told that Kevin Ryan’s Chuzzlewit who cost a cool 450,000 Gns as a yearling and is a full brother to the smart sprinter Advertise was a good thing on his racecourse debut at Redcar where he was left at the start but ran on to be beaten only 2 1/2L at the finish. This is a big step up in class but at a big price is worth a tiny each way play alongside my main fancy Royal Scotsman who can defy his 3lb penalty for father and son combo of Paul and Oliver Cole and will be ridden by Jim Crowley who had such a good spin round in Baaeed on Wednesday.

 

ROYAL SCOTSMAN 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill

CHUZZLEWIT 1/4 point each way @ 40/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

York 3.35

The feature race of day three is the 5F group one Nunthorpe Stakes. Warm favourite is the James Tate trained Royal Aclaim who steps up from a very impressive win in listed company over course and distance when beating Mondammej (beaten twice since in handicaps) with the very disappointing favourite Winter Power (winner of this event last year)back in 6th. Now he may well be very good and he certainly travelled like a top class sprinter last time but at around 7/4 represents no value here whatsoever and is opposable to me. Second favourite is two year old The Platinum Queen who receives a chunk of weight from her rivals and will be ridden by Hollie Doyle as her usual pilot Oisin Orr can’t do the weight. I’m also against her and at around 4/6 the pair combined I’ll be looking elsewhere. John Quinn’s Highfield Princess is a top class mare who really seems to have come to herself this season winning a group 2 here in good style over 6F and the group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville 12 days ago over 6 1/2F. She is a genuine group one horse and I don’t think dropping down a furlong will hinder her chance. She looks excellent each value to me especially with extra places.

 

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS 1 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

York 4.10

An eleven runner fillies handicap run over 10F 56 yards concludes ITV’s terrestrial coverage for the day. Three years have won the two years that this handicap has been run and that generation is represented today by two Roger Varian handicap debutants in Croachill and Shampion. The latter is very interesting as she ran the subsequent winner Shaara to a length and a half on her seasonal debut at Haydock in July prior to opening her account when a very easy winner at Windsor early this month. She can be a bit headstrong although it didn’t stop her from winning at Windsor and sports a hood today which she’s worn on both starts this season. Croachill got turned over at 1/5 last time and doesn’t appeal as much as her stablemate. Ralph Beckett’s State Occasion also has solid claims having beaten Rousay a length and a half in a similar handicap at Goodwood last month. The runner up has gone on to win in listed class giving the form a significant boost and she is the one I want to be with each way today although I can’t resist a small win only saver on Shampion.

 

STATE OCCASION 1 1/2 points each way @ 5/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234

SHAMPION 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

[Tedthewolf]

More tough races today at York. Nothing of big interest for me.

Two small e/w singles and a e/w double.

1.50 York Ravenscraig Castle  20/1 Bet 365 6places bog

4.10 York  The Flying Ginger 25/1 Corals  4places bog 

Good Luck All

[Ironjoe]

All york all bet365 +12 points so far

1.50 onesmoothoperator 16/1 1pt EW

3.00 Marshman 3/1 2pt WIN

3.35 the platinum queen 4/1  2pt WIN

6 points staked

Good luck ? 

[fd1972uk]

Stradivarious non runner

[kensland]

York. 

Single. 

1.50. Lord Protector.        11/2

Good luck all.  

[kensland]

York. 

Double. 

1.50. Lord Protector.  11/2

4.10. State Occasion.      3/1

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

[maxironchin]

3.35 York

The Platinum Queen. 1pt Win

Such a huge weight advantage and won LTO in a very fast time. Small stakes though as draw is not favourable and being 2yo may mean she is not quite ready for this.

[Ryanpete]

2 for today a little double 

3.00 York - Marshman 3/1

3.35 York - Royal acclaim 9/4

 

Good luck to all 

[calva decoy]

S.Crisford's yard are 4 from 4 here this season so I'll have a bit each way on improving FLOTUS 9/1 bet365  ( 4 places ) in York's 3.35 where I think ROYAL ACCLAIM will take all the beating however inexperience could be his downfall !

[black rabbit]

Top secret   2 50  NEWB-     1/10 pt win     12/1 

moktasaab   1 50 Yk   -   1/10 pt win   14/1

emaraaty ana   3 35 YK  -  1/10 pt win     15/1

croachill   4 10 YK   -   1/5 pt win    10/1

 

 

P/L   + 150.25 pts

Edited August 19, 2022 by black rabbit
selection

[The Equaliser]

Gone for PL members' selections for my fun festival bets today.

1.50 YK Lord Protector 0.60 ew at 15/2 @kensland Thundering 0.30 ew at 10/1 @TheBrigadier and Moktasaab 0.30 ew at 12/1 @black rabbit's selection

2.25 Yk Mostly Cloudy 0.40 ew at 18.5 3TBP @Peter York's ew Nap

3.00 Yk Noble Style 1 pt win at 4.2 @Wanderlust nap, royal Scotsman 1 pt win at 4.5 @TheBrigadierPLTR and Galeron 0.15 ew at 40/1 @Zilzalian nap

3..35 Yk The Platinum Queen 1 pt win at 9/2 @maxironchin (RC) selection. Highfield Princess 0.60 ew at 15/2 @TheBrigadier PLTR selection and EmeraatyAna 0.30 ew at 14/1 @black rabbitselection

4.10 Yk State Occasion 1 pt win at 4.2 @The BrigadierPLTR selction, Croach Hill 0.30 ew at 9/1 @black rabbit(RC ) selection and Yorkshire Lady 0.15 ew @Nigwilliam's £20 challenge selction

4.45 Yk High Royal .015 ew at 28/1 @silver foxnap.  Nb PL Nap = Desert Order but 6/4 too short for me

5.20 Yk Exminster .015 ew at 25/1 PLTR selection and Al Marmar 0.15 ew @sirspreadnap

2.50 Nb Top Secret 0.50 ew at 17/2 @black rabbit (RC) selection

Total stakes = 12.10 stakes for a full afternoon's entertainment

Good luck to all.  Most importantly have fun

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RESULTS UPDATE

The PL tipsters did very well today.  Three winners and four placed bets.  My profit on the day is 8.21 points

May do the same again tomorrow

Edited August 19, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[azzybear]

Coltrane 2.25

[The Equaliser]

6 minutes ago, azzybear said:

Coltrane 2.25

Welcome back

[Zilzalian]

Bad value 3yolds against elders in group races be careful people. 3:35  Royal acclaim 5/2? flotus 8/1?

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Bad value 3yolds against elders in group races be careful people. 3:35  Royal acclaim 5/2? flotus 8/1?

more evidence. that narrows a lot of fields down for rest of season in my opinion.

[calva decoy]

5 hours ago, calva decoy said:

S.Crisford's yard are 4 from 4 here this season so I'll have a bit each way on improving FLOTUS 9/1 bet365  ( 4 places ) in York's 3.35 where I think ROYAL ACCLAIM will take all the beating however inexperience could be his downfall !

Lost before the start & didn't settle at all , thankfully at the football tomorrow , I definitely won't be missing the Knavesmire .

[Zilzalian]

20 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Lost before the start & didn't settle at all , thankfully at the football tomorrow , I definitely won't be missing the Knavesmire .

its a 3yold Calva they are not running well against the elders i have stopped backing them. especially in the better races.

[Villa Chris]

4.40 Killarney 

Felix Desjy 10/1 

Offering 4 places and although I’m on a dry run I’ll persist with win bets only unless I see fit otherwise 

[The Brigadier]

On 8/18/2022 at 8:16 AM, The Brigadier said:

York 1.50

A near maximum field of nineteen go to post for this 1m 4F heritage handicap. It’s wide open with many having claims. The draw can be important here with a wide draw not ideal. William Haggas’s Mahrajan has claims in first time cheek pieces. Cormier would have been the selection if the ground was soft following a good win at Chester last time as he still looks well handicapped. William Knight’s Moktasaab can run well although I’m not sure stepping back up to 1m 4F is what he really wants. An outsider I think can run well and worth a small each way interest with the extra places is Kevin Ryan’s Thundering. The only three year old in the field he may have more improvement to come and his latest second beaten a head by Pride Of Priory on the all weather at Newcastle has been boosted by the subsequent victory of that horse at the Shergar Cup. He’s been raised 2lb for that and has the assistance of the under used Josephine Gordon today.

 

THUNDERING 1 point each way @ 11/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

York 2.25

The group 2 Lonsdale Cup is a cracker this year. run over 2m 56 yards of the Knavesmire it features the Gosden’s Stradivarius who’s won this race three of the last four years and is unbeaten here in six starts. Placed on his last two starts behind Aiden O’Brien’s super stayer Kyprios at Royal Ascot and Goodwood he looks sure to run well under Andrea Atzeni. A length and a quarter behind him at Goodwood was Alan King’s Trueshan who’s chance will increase if by any chance the track was hit by any thunderstorms as he loves to get his toe in. It’s hard to fancy Coltrane and Tashkan who appear held by the aforementioned pair whilst Quickthorn may do best of the rest. But I feel this may turn out to be a straight shoot out between Stradivarius and Trueshan with preference just for the former with the ground likely to be more in his favour than Trueshan.

 

STRADIVARIUS 2 points win @ 11/8 BetVictor

 

York 3.00

A dozen fast juveniles assemble for the 6F group 2 Gimcrack Stakes. Coventry third and Richmond winner Royal Scotsman looks the one they all have to beat although he does have to shoulder a 3lb penalty for his Goodwood victory. Karl Burke’s Marshman steps up in grade having looked a smart prospect when winning at Ayr and Thirsk. He’s hard to assess but shouldn’t be dismissed lightly. Charlie Appleby’s Noble Style also steps up in class following victories at Ascot and Newmarket and this 525,000 Gns yearling looks smart. I’ll be surprised if the winner doesn’t come from one of this trio although I was told that Kevin Ryan’s Chuzzlewit who cost a cool 450,000 Gns as a yearling and is a full brother to the smart sprinter Advertise was a good thing on his racecourse debut at Redcar where he was left at the start but ran on to be beaten only 2 1/2L at the finish. This is a big step up in class but at a big price is worth a tiny each way play alongside my main fancy Royal Scotsman who can defy his 3lb penalty for father and son combo of Paul and Oliver Cole and will be ridden by Jim Crowley who had such a good spin round in Baaeed on Wednesday.

 

ROYAL SCOTSMAN 2 points win @ 11/4 William Hill

CHUZZLEWIT 1/4 point each way @ 40/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

York 3.35

The feature race of day three is the 5F group one Nunthorpe Stakes. Warm favourite is the James Tate trained Royal Aclaim who steps up from a very impressive win in listed company over course and distance when beating Mondammej (beaten twice since in handicaps) with the very disappointing favourite Winter Power (winner of this event last year)back in 6th. Now he may well be very good and he certainly travelled like a top class sprinter last time but at around 7/4 represents no value here whatsoever and is opposable to me. Second favourite is two year old The Platinum Queen who receives a chunk of weight from her rivals and will be ridden by Hollie Doyle as her usual pilot Oisin Orr can’t do the weight. I’m also against her and at around 4/6 the pair combined I’ll be looking elsewhere. John Quinn’s Highfield Princess is a top class mare who really seems to have come to herself this season winning a group 2 here in good style over 6F and the group 1 Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville 12 days ago over 6 1/2F. She is a genuine group one horse and I don’t think dropping down a furlong will hinder her chance. She looks excellent each value to me especially with extra places.

 

HIGHFIELD PRINCESS 1 1/2 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

York 4.10

An eleven runner fillies handicap run over 10F 56 yards concludes ITV’s terrestrial coverage for the day. Three years have won the two years that this handicap has been run and that generation is represented today by two Roger Varian handicap debutants in Croachill and Shampion. The latter is very interesting as she ran the subsequent winner Shaara to a length and a half on her seasonal debut at Haydock in July prior to opening her account when a very easy winner at Windsor early this month. She can be a bit headstrong although it didn’t stop her from winning at Windsor and sports a hood today which she’s worn on both starts this season. Croachill got turned over at 1/5 last time and doesn’t appeal as much as her stablemate. Ralph Beckett’s State Occasion also has solid claims having beaten Rousay a length and a half in a similar handicap at Goodwood last month. The runner up has gone on to win in listed class giving the form a significant boost and she is the one I want to be with each way today although I can’t resist a small win only saver on Shampion.

 

STATE OCCASION 1 1/2 points each way @ 5/1 Betfred 1/5th 1234

SHAMPION 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

A good day with a 10/1 and 5/1 winner from just four races (plus an 11/1 place). Hope everyone's found a winner or two this afternoon. Saturdays selections were uploaded at 9am this morning.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

more evidence. that narrows a lot of fields down for rest of season in my opinion.

Is there any logic as to why an entire year's worth of horses will be inferior to the norm ?

[justanotherpunter]

Is there any logic as to why an entire year's worth of horses will be inferior to the norm ?

equine covid ???  ?

[Zilzalian]

1 hour ago, MCLARKE said:

Is there any logic as to why an entire year's worth of horses will be inferior to the norm ?

Always exceptions but it may be that, and this is what is not often realised are weather/climate related, in all living things (bacteria, insects included) there are optimum conditions hot/cold winters/springs and other conditions to growth some years they are perfect and adversely some are at the other end of the spectrum most in between (bad harvest this year, fair harvest, good harvest last year) so yes it is possible. Here is the significance, forget the handicap which will level them anyway. assume i am correct the pattern system is significant as exampled by todays results, did the 3 year olds do well? 2 short priced favs state acclaim/amazoe got beat so a look through the racecards tell you no, as you know by some of my recent posts i have been suspicious for a few weeks now. So what to glean from the information i have just told you? do you now have an edge until it becomes widely accepted? well how about reducing the field size by excluding the 3yo. or laying the 3yolds (which i dont do) here is an even more interesting consideration do not apply it to Irish, french, or German populations, you would have look at them seperately, i made a mistake yesterday of doing this (i forgot my own bs lol) i disregarded Tuesday trained in ireland and raclette france, i shouldnt have done, i should have used normal formlines/speed figures. for second place raclette wasnt good enough but tuesday was, i stated that i would be mildly amused if Alpinista and la petite coco wasnt 1st and 2nd. so serves me right for being lax, fortunitlely i had Alpinista well in front of Tuesday anyway. now heres another angle if a GB 3yold beats older horses in a patern race, this is not the end of the world because that in itself is good information (assuming my hypothesis is correct) note them, especially back against their own age group.

[MCLARKE]

Yep looks like you might have an edge there. Yet another variable in the world of racing, it always amazes me that the market is so accurate.

I seem to recall stats say that 3yos get better against the older opponents as the season progresses, not sure how accurate that is.

[Zilzalian]

3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Yep looks like you might have an edge there. Yet another variable in the world of racing, it always amazes me that the market is so accurate.

I seem to recall stats say that 3yos get better against the older opponents as the season progresses, not sure how accurate that is.

Well they get weight allowances that diminish as the season progresses. lets see how they get on tomorrow, not looked at cards yet. if i am correct they (punters and bookies) will soon latch on to it and react accordingly because of idiots like me mentioning it on sites like this. ?