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Racing Chat - Thursday August 18th

The Brigadier
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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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Posted
The forecast heavy rain failed to materialise on the Knavesmire on Tuesday night with just 3mm (plus 2mm from Monday night) hitting the course so it looks like we're set fair for a good fast ground Ebor meeting.
 
York 1.50
Day two of the Ebor meeting kicks off with a fourteen runner group 2 Lowther Stakes for two year old fillies. Hot favourite is Karl Burke’s Dramatised who’s looked very good when winning at Newmarket and at Royal Ascot in the Queen Mary. She’s not been seen since and the form of that race hasn’t worked out that well with the runner up, third and 6th all beaten since even though the 5th and 7th have won minor contests. She also has to shoulder a 3lb penalty and although she could be the real deal is opposable at the forecast price. Second favourite is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Mawj who’s group 2 Newmarket win last time has been boosted by the subsequent win of runner up Lezoo. She can run well and hit the frame although like the favourite has to shoulder a 3lb penalty. Alice Haynes took her chestnut filly Lady Hollywood over to Naas for a listed contest in July and beat the well touted Ger Lyons runner Mauiewowie who went on to take a listed contest last weekend at The Curragh. Owned by Amo Racing she’s been supplemented for this race at the cost of 40k and will need to finish in the first two to secure a profit. She looks over priced at around 10/1 and I’ll back her to small stakes each way with bet365 who are offering an extra place.
 
LADY HOLLYWOOD 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
York 2.25
A big field of 19 go post for this 6F Goffs UK Harry Beeby Premier Yearling Stakes for two year olds. Richard Hannon has an unenviable record in the race having won it four times out of the last six years and saddles Shouldhavebeenaring who has been absent since winning a Ripon novice stakes 95 days ago. The son of Havana Gold came home 1 3/4L clear that day and the form has worked out well with the 3rd (twice), 6th (twice), 8th (twice) and 10th (twice) all winning since. Ridden by Sean Levey he can enhance Hannon’s excellent record in the race. Andrew Balding won this race last year with Harrow and saddles Matching Sox who started his career only two days ago when winning at Kempton in a six runner novice stakes in a first time hood. He’s an interesting runner who must surely have more improvement to come. Richard Fahey’s Dare To Hope is a speedy sort who has an official mark of 93 and is yet another who could be in the shake up but it’s Shoukdhavebeenaring for me each way with extra places.
SHOULDHAVEBEENARING 2 points each way @ 9/2 Coral 1/5th 12345
 
York 3.00
Next up is the twenty runner Clipper Logistics Heritage Handicap run over just short of a mile. It’s a wide open handicap where chances can be given to many. Last years winner Cruyff Turn is two from two at the track and although he’s 5lb higher than when winning this last year is on my shortlist of two. Trained by local trainer Tim Easterby he wasn’t disgraced last time in the Bunbury Cup on the July course at Newmarket but this is much more his track and should be thereabouts. The other horse I like is Saeed Bin Suroor’s Shining Blue who very much looked a horse to follow when winning his first three starts and was thrown into the deep end last time when drawn in the car park in Goodwood’s Golden Mile where everything that could go wrong did. He pulled hard out wide and was severely hampered a furlong out when although beaten wasn’t that far behind the principals. He races today in a first time hood and has Frankie Dettori booked. David O’Meara’s one two from that race Orbaan and Blue For You re-oppose but they had the run of the race from the low draws and I’m giving Shining Blue a chance to turn the form around.
 
SHINING BLUE 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456
CRUYFF TURN 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123456
 
York 3.35
A cracking renewal of the Darley Yorkshire Oaks with seven quality fillies lining up here. Sir Mark Prescott’s Alpinista is the highest rated and is chasing her seventh victory on the bounce with the last four coming in group one company in Germany and France. She’s the one they all have to beat although there is plenty of decent opposition against her here. Jessie Harrington’s Irish Oaks winner Magical Lagoon was all out to win that contest from Aidan O’Brien’s Toy (beaten since) and this looks much tougher whilst O’Brien’s representative today is Epsom Oaks winner Tuesday who was supplemented for the Irish Derby when bombing out badly. That may have been one race too many having contested four group ones in the space of 55 days. She’s been given a 54 day break since and should run well. French raider Raclette trained by maestro Andre Fabre has to be respected although her form doesn’t look quite good enough. Paddy Twomey is a trainer in excellent form and his Pretty Polly winner La Petite Coco and ridden by Billy Lee is yet another that has to be respected chasing a five timer. A tough call but I’ll play La Petite Coco each way with Betfred who (like Coral) are offering three places on this seven runner contest.
 
LA PETITE COCO 1 1/2 points each way @ 11/2 Betfred 1/5th 123
 
York 4.10
A dozen fillies and mares assemble for the listed Galtres Stakes run over 12F. William Haggas’s Golden Lyra is a promising three year old who was runner up in listed company on her re-appearance at Newbury prior to landing the odds in comfortable style at Kempton. She’s the highest rated in the field and looks sure to run a big race. Another promising filly is the once raced Juddmonte owned Haskoy who looked good on her debut three weeks ago at Wolverhampton although this is a big step up in class for Ralph Beckett’s Golden Horn filly. There shouldn’t be anything between the Gosden’s Mimikyu and the Charlton’s Time Lock who was a neck down at the line in a soft ground novice stakes race at Haydock in June. On 5lb better terms preference is for Time Lock. An interesting race that may fall to Golden Lyra who could be anything.
 
GOLDEN LYRA 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365
 
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Tedthewolf

Tedthewolf

Posted
Posted (edited)

3.00 York  Really tough race  nothing i really fancy strongly nowt really stands out at all for me so  4 small e/w speculative  punts on-

REVICH 20/1  bog 6 places

RHOSCOLYN 25'1 bog 6 places

WHATS THE  STORY 33/1 bog 6 places 

ISLA KAI 25/1 not bog 6 places

Well be interesting to see what Richard's  Ratings throw up.

Edited by Tedthewolf
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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

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Posted

3.00 york ...one ofvthe toughest races I've rated for a,while 

Echo point  8.8 15/2  7 places 

Boosala    8.6  10/1 7places 

Isla kai   8.3  

Brunch   8.1 

Shelir 8.1 

Tyrannian sea 8.1 

Cruyff turn    8.0 

As you  can see there's a whole pile of horses who could easily win this ....its come down to buick being on echo point 7 places so that's ew  .....and boosala if you forgive his last run then 10 /1 ew 7 places looks a fair bet ....

5pt ew echo and boosala ew 7 places 

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richard-westwood

richard-westwood

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Tedthewolf said:

3.00 York  Really tough race  nothing i really fancy strongly nowt really stands out at all for me so  4 small e/w speculative  punts on-

REVICH 20/1  bog 6 places

RHOSCOLYN 25'1 bog 6 places

WHATS THE  STORY 33/1 bog 6 places 

ISLA KAI 25/1 not bog 6 places

Well be interesting to see what Richard's  Ratings throw up.

I think isla kai is a great ew bet ?

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MCLARKE

MCLARKE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

As you  can see there's a whole pile of horses who could easily win this ....its come down to buick being on echo point 7 places so that's ew  .....and boosala if you forgive his last run then 10 /1 ew 7 places looks a fair bet ....

5pt ew echo and boosala ew 7 places 

Remember Sky don't offer BOG, you might be better taking BET365 8/1 6 places.

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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted

Said elswhere that alpinista at 9/4 is huuuge price as i expect it to win the arc this year, remember torquato tasso won the arc last year and alpinista beat that horse comfortably, There is lots of evidence to suggest that the 3yolds are substandard this year leaves 3 and one of those lilac road hasnt won at 12f this is its first try. So this leaves 2 alpinista and la petite coco. nothing is a given in racing as we know but i will be stunned if Alpinista gets beat in this and will be mildly amused if coco doesn't come 2nd.

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The Equaliser

The Equaliser

Posted
Posted (edited)

Very late here today so will have to play as it goes

1.50 Yk Queen Me 0.30 ew at 18/1 4 places (A damn good bet according to Spotlight in the RP, haha)

2.25 Yk Kings Crown 0.30 ew at 18/1 for Adrain Nicholls

3.00 Yk Have placed 0.60 ew on Echo Point ( @richard-westwood's horse.  Not sure about Boosala Richard's other horse, but always dangerous to ignore Haggas/Marquand

2.40 Strat Larch Hill 1 pt win at 5.6 with Hughsie aboard.  Looks like a very interesting race

3.35 Yk Lilac Road 0.60 win at 9/1   Also 0.60 win on Magical Lagoon at 15/2)(I do hope that Alpinista wins though).

4.10 Yk Golden Lyra 2 pts win at 4.5 (my PL Nap today)

4.45 Yk One Nation 2 pts win at 4.5

So Haggas gets a winner when I don't back it

5.20 Yk He may well win the last with Hayley Turner aboard 2/7 winners with 3 yr olds.  I'l try 1 pt ew on Adaay In Asia at 9/1 and 3 pts win on Mobdara. This completes my York bets today

Total stakes = 13.60 points today

RESULTS UPDATE

Luckily Adaay In Asia won and rescued me from a loss.  I backed it because I liked the horse.  It would seem that its price drifted because the market thought that the horse would not stay 7 furlongs. The market was wrong.  Anyway, 0.58 profit on the day so no harm done.  My MTD is now -39.47 and YTD -241.65

Not sure how to play these festival meetings.  I like to have a bet in most of the races and join in the fun but I don't like spending loads of time trying to fathom out which horse might win.  It is tempting just to follow the PL pundits but I feel that one has to check out whether the race conditions will suit any horse that has been put up as a selection.  This is not straight forward.  Back for another crack tomorrow.  Hope some members had a profitable day

Edited by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE
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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Said elswhere that alpinista at 9/4 is huuuge price as i expect it to win the arc this year, remember torquato tasso won the arc last year and alpinista beat that horse comfortably, There is lots of evidence to suggest that the 3yolds are substandard this year leaves 3 and one of those lilac road hasnt won at 12f this is its first try. So this leaves 2 alpinista and la petite coco. nothing is a given in racing as we know but i will be stunned if Alpinista gets beat in this and will be mildly amused if coco doesn't come 2nd.

Mildly amused

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Ironjoe

Ironjoe

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Ironjoe said:

All york all bet365

1.50 maria branwell 20/1 1pt EW (4)

2.25 northcliff 50/1 1pt EW (5)

3.00 Cruyff Turn 14/1 1pt EW (6)

3.35 le petite coco 2pt WIN

4.45 XJ Rascal 15/2 1pt EW (5)

10 points staked

Good luck ? 

 

 

Non runner and a drift too 66/1 place returns 14 points. +12 points for the festival

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Zilzalian

Zilzalian

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Mildly amused

First highlited Alpinista on this site over 2 years ago when it beat a horse i really fancied, the speed figure was remarkable, i have followed it ever since and made barrel fulls of money out of it. it has been one of the most underated horses in training i said after the arc that i bet Prescott was kicking himself because it beat the arc winner easily in gemany nice to hear him say exactly that after this race. I see no 3yo that are capable of beating it so the large bet i have had on the arc is looking more and more solid as the season goes on. i wouldn't put anyone off the price for the arc it may not be the 20/1 it was back in march (Backed) when i backed it but even the 8/1 looks good value now.

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The Brigadier

The Brigadier

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On 8/17/2022 at 8:24 AM, The Brigadier said:
The forecast heavy rain failed to materialise on the Knavesmire on Tuesday night with just 3mm (plus 2mm from Monday night) hitting the course so it looks like we're set fair for a good fast ground Ebor meeting.
 
York 1.50
Day two of the Ebor meeting kicks off with a fourteen runner group 2 Lowther Stakes for two year old fillies. Hot favourite is Karl Burke’s Dramatised who’s looked very good when winning at Newmarket and at Royal Ascot in the Queen Mary. She’s not been seen since and the form of that race hasn’t worked out that well with the runner up, third and 6th all beaten since even though the 5th and 7th have won minor contests. She also has to shoulder a 3lb penalty and although she could be the real deal is opposable at the forecast price. Second favourite is the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Mawj who’s group 2 Newmarket win last time has been boosted by the subsequent win of runner up Lezoo. She can run well and hit the frame although like the favourite has to shoulder a 3lb penalty. Alice Haynes took her chestnut filly Lady Hollywood over to Naas for a listed contest in July and beat the well touted Ger Lyons runner Mauiewowie who went on to take a listed contest last weekend at The Curragh. Owned by Amo Racing she’s been supplemented for this race at the cost of 40k and will need to finish in the first two to secure a profit. She looks over priced at around 10/1 and I’ll back her to small stakes each way with bet365 who are offering an extra place.
 
LADY HOLLYWOOD 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 1234
 
York 2.25
A big field of 19 go post for this 6F Goffs UK Harry Beeby Premier Yearling Stakes for two year olds. Richard Hannon has an unenviable record in the race having won it four times out of the last six years and saddles Shouldhavebeenaring who has been absent since winning a Ripon novice stakes 95 days ago. The son of Havana Gold came home 1 3/4L clear that day and the form has worked out well with the 3rd (twice), 6th (twice), 8th (twice) and 10th (twice) all winning since. Ridden by Sean Levey he can enhance Hannon’s excellent record in the race. Andrew Balding won this race last year with Harrow and saddles Matching Sox who started his career only two days ago when winning at Kempton in a six runner novice stakes in a first time hood. He’s an interesting runner who must surely have more improvement to come. Richard Fahey’s Dare To Hope is a speedy sort who has an official mark of 93 and is yet another who could be in the shake up but it’s Shoukdhavebeenaring for me each way with extra places.
SHOULDHAVEBEENARING 2 points each way @ 9/2 Coral 1/5th 12345
 
York 3.00
Next up is the twenty runner Clipper Logistics Heritage Handicap run over just short of a mile. It’s a wide open handicap where chances can be given to many. Last years winner Cruyff Turn is two from two at the track and although he’s 5lb higher than when winning this last year is on my shortlist of two. Trained by local trainer Tim Easterby he wasn’t disgraced last time in the Bunbury Cup on the July course at Newmarket but this is much more his track and should be thereabouts. The other horse I like is Saeed Bin Suroor’s Shining Blue who very much looked a horse to follow when winning his first three starts and was thrown into the deep end last time when drawn in the car park in Goodwood’s Golden Mile where everything that could go wrong did. He pulled hard out wide and was severely hampered a furlong out when although beaten wasn’t that far behind the principals. He races today in a first time hood and has Frankie Dettori booked. David O’Meara’s one two from that race Orbaan and Blue For You re-oppose but they had the run of the race from the low draws and I’m giving Shining Blue a chance to turn the form around.
 
SHINING BLUE 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456
CRUYFF TURN 1 point each way @ 12/1 bet365 1/5th 123456
 
York 3.35
A cracking renewal of the Darley Yorkshire Oaks with seven quality fillies lining up here. Sir Mark Prescott’s Alpinista is the highest rated and is chasing her seventh victory on the bounce with the last four coming in group one company in Germany and France. She’s the one they all have to beat although there is plenty of decent opposition against her here. Jessie Harrington’s Irish Oaks winner Magical Lagoon was all out to win that contest from Aidan O’Brien’s Toy (beaten since) and this looks much tougher whilst O’Brien’s representative today is Epsom Oaks winner Tuesday who was supplemented for the Irish Derby when bombing out badly. That may have been one race too many having contested four group ones in the space of 55 days. She’s been given a 54 day break since and should run well. French raider Raclette trained by maestro Andre Fabre has to be respected although her form doesn’t look quite good enough. Paddy Twomey is a trainer in excellent form and his Pretty Polly winner La Petite Coco and ridden by Billy Lee is yet another that has to be respected chasing a five timer. A tough call but I’ll play La Petite Coco each way with Betfred who (like Coral) are offering three places on this seven runner contest.
 
LA PETITE COCO 1 1/2 points each way @ 11/2 Betfred 1/5th 123
 
York 4.10
A dozen fillies and mares assemble for the listed Galtres Stakes run over 12F. William Haggas’s Golden Lyra is a promising three year old who was runner up in listed company on her re-appearance at Newbury prior to landing the odds in comfortable style at Kempton. She’s the highest rated in the field and looks sure to run a big race. Another promising filly is the once raced Juddmonte owned Haskoy who looked good on her debut three weeks ago at Wolverhampton although this is a big step up in class for Ralph Beckett’s Golden Horn filly. There shouldn’t be anything between the Gosden’s Mimikyu and the Charlton’s Time Lock who was a neck down at the line in a soft ground novice stakes race at Haydock in June. On 5lb better terms preference is for Time Lock. An interesting race that may fall to Golden Lyra who could be anything.
 
GOLDEN LYRA 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365
 

A profit of 5.95 points today with the one good winner at 9/2 and a 10/1 & 11/2 places.

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fd1972uk

fd1972uk

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, fd1972uk said:

The horse I backed by mistake actually won the bleeding race, lol, unfortunately my ew bet was blasted on first race, stupid race to back on anyway, all others have placed, meh.

Well complete bomb there, adaay in Asia won too, but unfortunately and stupidly had went on the 1st race with lady Hollywood, when I had went with a couple of moneyback horses.

To confound it because of the error I backed another treble ew with a free bet I had. Had voodoo Prince, adaay in Asia and decided to go against ouzo who was on my original ew bet and replaced with cruyff turn, that horse is fast challenging hollie Doyle and alcohol free as absolute killer bets.

Ahh well.

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