Racing Chat - Saturday 23rd July

[The Brigadier]

Ascot 1.50

Nine turn up for the group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes for juvenile fillies and features to my eyes the best bet of the seven terrestrial television races. Ralph Beckett will no doubt have his mind on his superstar three year old Westover later today but his Zoustar filly Lezoo ridden today by Frankie Dettori will be very hard to beat. Impressive in a Newmarket listed race on the July course in June under Dettori she stepped up from that run when pushing the smart Mawj all the way to the line going down by half a length in the group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at the same track a fortnight later. If in the same form she can beat some promising maiden/novice stakes winners who will need to step up considerably. William Haggas’s Royal Charter may turn out to be her biggest threat following a Newmarket maiden victory.

 

LEZOO 3 Points win @ 7/4 bet365

 

York 2.05

The jump jockey’s Nunthorpe handicap is as it states a 5F class 4 handicap for jump jockeys. A bit of a novelty contest that has only a minimal appeal as a betting medium to be honest. The race has a wide open look about it with last years neck winner Soul Seeker under Tom Scudamore back to defend his title this time from a 8lb lower mark and with Sean Bowen in the saddle. Scudamore has won two of the last four runnings of this unique race and is on board Mick Appleby’s Val De Travers here from stall 16. He’s won three of his five starts this season from the front and it will shortly be a case of point and shoot from Scuadmore here. He’s worth a speculative each way bet.

 

VAL DE TRAVERS 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 2.25

A one mile group three contest for 3 year old and older fillies and mares is up next and once again a warm favourite in the Roger Varian trained Zanbaq. She was last seen here at the Royal meeting when chasing home the smart Heredia giving her a pound in the Sandringham Handicap run over the straight course (today’s race is run over the round course). That was a fine effort and although officially not the highest rated here will be tough to beat. Her stable mate Kind Gesture is improving and could easily give the Newmarket stable a 1-2. The top rated in the race is the German runner Novemba but her best form has been on soft ground and for me would only come into the equation we’re the heavens to open. Jumbly is the other one at the front end of the market with claims but for me this will go to the Varian stable and Zanbaq who will be ridden by Jim Crowley for his employers Shadwell Stud.

 

ZANBAQ 3 points win @ 2/1 bet354

 

ZANBAQ & LEZOO 2 points each way double 7/4 & 2/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

York 2.40

A 6F class 2 handicap which has attracted 15 runners is up next which again has an open feel about it. Silver Samurai came into the Wokingham at Royal Ascot looking a progressive sprinter but was a tad disappointing and maybe a mark of 98 is the ceiling of his ability. Top weight Mondammej has been keeping better company than this (and running well in it) but a mark of 104 seems high enough. Last years’s one two Venturous (2lb lower) and Music Society (6lb lower) are back and both have each way chances. The horse I like though is the progressive Michael Dodds trained mare Gale Force Mayo who’s kept her form well all season winning at Newmarket and over course and distance and certainly wasn’t disgraced when third to the smart Flotus in a group 3 over course and distance again a fortnight ago. She’s running off of her highest ever handicap mark but should run her race and this consistent six year old will do for me although it would of been nice to have seen Dodds’ horses in slightly better form ( 22 runs and 17 days since his last winner).

 

GALE FORCE MAYO 1 point each way @ 7/1 Coral/Ladbrokes 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 3.00

A widely competitive 7F class 2 handicap with a big field of twenty two is the days big handicap. Dark Shift won the Royal Hunt Cup at the Royal meeting bringing his track record to four wins from six starts and despite dropping a furlong here has a major chance even from a 6lb higher handicap mark and has to be on the short list. The front three from Newmarket’s Bunbury Cup re-oppose and I can’t really see why the 3rd that day Jumby is so much shorter than the two that beat him in Bless Him and Ropey Guest. Bless Him is a hold up horse who has the assistance once more of marmite pilot Jamie Spencer whilst Ropey Guest has run well in big handicaps all season and should be thereabouts. Fresh likes this track but may need easier ground to show his best whilst the best outsider, and officially 3lb well in today, is the Michael Dodds trained Northern Express ridden by Graham Lee. It’s a minefield of a race with the draw also a major factor with possibly high numbers preferred as the majority of the pace seems to be high although as always that’s not a certainty. I’ll take a couple against the field in Ropey Guest who looks over priced and Hunt Cup winner Dark Shift who loves the track.

 

ROPEY GUEST 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

DARK SHIFT 1 point each way @ 6/1 Boylesports 1/5th 123456

 

York 3.15

Only five go to post for the Sky Bet York Stakes, a group 2 contest run over 1m 2F 56yds. I believe currently we have the wrong favourite here in the improving Jane Chapple- Hyam trained Claymore. He won the group three Hampton Court at Royal Ascot from the odds on and disappointing favourite of the Gosden’s Reach For The Moon and as progressive as he is is still officially rated 9lb behind William Haggas’s Dubai Honour who if straight enough surely goes off favourite here. Runner up in the Champion Stakes on Champions Day at Ascot last October he was last seen when 10th of 15 beaten 4 1/4L in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. A genuine group one performer he’ll be hard to beat if forward enough. Sir Busker and Dark Moon Rising don’t look good enough whilst Saeed Bin Suroor’s Dubai Future is not without a chance either.

 

DUBAI HONOUR 3 points win @ 2/1 Boylesports

 

Ascot 3.35

The day’s feature race is the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes run over a mile and a half where the Classic generation meet their elders. The two three year olds are unlucky Derby 3rd and Irish Derby victor Westover from the Ralph Beckett camp and unlucky Oaks runner up Emily Upjohn from the John and Thady Gosden stable. Both have obvious claims and it would not be a shock if either won this. Personally I think they’ll need to step up here against the four older horses. The horse who’s overpriced surely is the Arc De Triomphe winner Torquator Tasso in double figure odds. He won that prestigious race on heavy ground though and if the ground remains fast couldn’t be put up as a bet. Broome ran 4th in this last year and looked good over course and distance in the Hardwicke Stakes at the Royal meeting. It’s not often you can get 20/1 plus about a Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore runner in a group one that’s for sure. They may all have to go mind to beat the other John and Thady Gosden runner Mishriff. He went down by 1 3/4L in this last year to that year’s Derby winner Adayar and was an unlucky loser when not getting a clear run in the Eclipse at Sandown at the beginning of the month. David Egan has lost the ride (and job) on the horse since but the more than capable James Doyle takes over. In a race to saviour he may well be worth a small interest.

 

MISHRIFF 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

[richard-westwood]

3.00 ascot 

Jumby  8.8  8.4 

Bless him  8.7  14.5 

Chief of chiefs  8.5 13.5 

Accidentally agent  8.0 25/1 

Air to air  7.9  7/1 

As you'd expect a very very difficult cavalry charge but top 3 are big prices on betfair so let's have a,shot at a decent payout 

Accidental agent could outrun his big price ...looks overpriced 

10pt wins top 3 rated 

Edited July 22, 2022 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

240 york 

Gale force maya  8.6 7/1

Hyperfocus  8.2  19.5 

Aberama gold  8.2 10/1 

These 3 are a little clear of rest so at decent prices I'll try 3x 10pt wins top 3 

[kensland]

Lingfield. 

Single 

7.10. Fashion Love.        7/1.... 18/1.     2nd 

Good luck all. 

Edited July 23, 2022 by kensland

[The Equaliser]

8 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

3.00 ascot 

Jumby  8.8  8.4 

Bless him  8.7  14.5 

Chief of chiefs  8.5 13.5 

Accidentally agent  8.0 25/1 

Air to air  7.9  7/1 

As you'd expect a very very difficult cavalry charge but top 3 are big prices on betfair so let's have a,shot at a decent payout 

Accidental agent could outrun his big price ...looks overpriced 

10pt wins top 3 rated 

I admire your intrepid bravery but can't help wondering why you haven't chosen 5 points each way on your selections in this race and in the 2.40 at York?

[Tedthewolf]

2.05 york-SOUL SEEKER 14/1

2.40 york MUSIC SOCIETY 16/1

3.00 Ascot ROPEY GUEST 16/1

5.20 Ascot HURRICANE IVOR 12/1

All 4 e/w singles and a e/w L15 bog

3.00  Ascot  RHOSCOLYN 25/1 e/w bog 6places

 

[Aj racer]

2.05 york num 3 25/1
2.40 york num 2 7/1
8.40 lin num 7 7/1
3.00 ascot  num 8 or 16
3.35 asc num 4 6/4

[Aj racer]

11 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

240 york 

Gale force maya  8.6 7/1

Hyperfocus  8.2  19.5 

Aberama gold  8.2 10/1 

These 3 are a little clear of rest so at decent prices I'll try 3x 10pt wins top 3 

Personally I would focus the top two Aberama gold last time out did not seem as strong as other races

 

[richard-westwood]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I admire your intrepid bravery but can't help wondering why you haven't chosen 5 points each way on your selections in this race and in the 2.40 at York?

I think on a Saturday I'll go big on the big races of the day just for a shot at winning a few quid .....I could go ew but then you only win 90 as opposed to 180 .....I like the excitement lol ?....and I need to make some big donations to my holiday fund ? 

[MCLARKE]

5 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I admire your intrepid bravery but can't help wondering why you haven't chosen 5 points each way on your selections in this race and in the 2.40 at York?

I agree. With up to 7 places on offer each way is the value option if you are not restricted with the bookmakers.

[The Scientist]

21 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

Ascot 1.50

Nine turn up for the group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes for juvenile fillies and features to my eyes the best bet of the seven terrestrial television races. Ralph Beckett will no doubt have his mind on his superstar three year old Westover later today but his Zoustar filly Lezoo ridden today by Frankie Dettori will be very hard to beat. Impressive in a Newmarket listed race on the July course in June under Dettori she stepped up from that run when pushing the smart Mawj all the way to the line going down by half a length in the group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at the same track a fortnight later. If in the same form she can beat some promising maiden/novice stakes winners who will need to step up considerably. William Haggas’s Royal Charter may turn out to be her biggest threat following a Newmarket maiden victory.

 

LEZOO 3 Points win @ 7/4 bet365

 

York 2.05

The jump jockey’s Nunthorpe handicap is as it states a 5F class 4 handicap for jump jockeys. A bit of a novelty contest that has only a minimal appeal as a betting medium to be honest. The race has a wide open look about it with last years neck winner Soul Seeker under Tom Scudamore back to defend his title this time from a 8lb lower mark and with Sean Bowen in the saddle. Scudamore has won two of the last four runnings of this unique race and is on board Mick Appleby’s Val De Travers here from stall 16. He’s won three of his five starts this season from the front and it will shortly be a case of point and shoot from Scuadmore here. He’s worth a speculative each way bet.

 

VAL DE TRAVERS 1 point each way @ 8/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Ascot 2.25

A one mile group three contest for 3 year old and older fillies and mares is up next and once again a warm favourite in the Roger Varian trained Zanbaq. She was last seen here at the Royal meeting when chasing home the smart Heredia giving her a pound in the Sandringham Handicap run over the straight course (today’s race is run over the round course). That was a fine effort and although officially not the highest rated here will be tough to beat. Her stable mate Kind Gesture is improving and could easily give the Newmarket stable a 1-2. The top rated in the race is the German runner Novemba but her best form has been on soft ground and for me would only come into the equation we’re the heavens to open. Jumbly is the other one at the front end of the market with claims but for me this will go to the Varian stable and Zanbaq who will be ridden by Jim Crowley for his employers Shadwell Stud.

 

ZANBAQ 3 points win @ 2/1 bet354

 

ZANBAQ & LEZOO 2 points each way double 7/4 & 2/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

York 2.40

A 6F class 2 handicap which has attracted 15 runners is up next which again has an open feel about it. Silver Samurai came into the Wokingham at Royal Ascot looking a progressive sprinter but was a tad disappointing and maybe a mark of 98 is the ceiling of his ability. Top weight Mondammej has been keeping better company than this (and running well in it) but a mark of 104 seems high enough. Last years’s one two Venturous (2lb lower) and Music Society (6lb lower) are back and both have each way chances. The horse I like though is the progressive Michael Dodds trained mare Gale Force Mayo who’s kept her form well all season winning at Newmarket and over course and distance and certainly wasn’t disgraced when third to the smart Flotus in a group 3 over course and distance again a fortnight ago. She’s running off of her highest ever handicap mark but should run her race and this consistent six year old will do for me although it would of been nice to have seen Dodds’ horses in slightly better form ( 22 runs and 17 days since his last winner).

 

GALE FORCE MAYO 1 point each way @ 7/1 Coral/Ladbrokes 1/5th 1234

 

Ascot 3.00

A widely competitive 7F class 2 handicap with a big field of twenty two is the days big handicap. Dark Shift won the Royal Hunt Cup at the Royal meeting bringing his track record to four wins from six starts and despite dropping a furlong here has a major chance even from a 6lb higher handicap mark and has to be on the short list. The front three from Newmarket’s Bunbury Cup re-oppose and I can’t really see why the 3rd that day Jumby is so much shorter than the two that beat him in Bless Him and Ropey Guest. Bless Him is a hold up horse who has the assistance once more of marmite pilot Jamie Spencer whilst Ropey Guest has run well in big handicaps all season and should be thereabouts. Fresh likes this track but may need easier ground to show his best whilst the best outsider, and officially 3lb well in today, is the Michael Dodds trained Northern Express ridden by Graham Lee. It’s a minefield of a race with the draw also a major factor with possibly high numbers preferred as the majority of the pace seems to be high although as always that’s not a certainty. I’ll take a couple against the field in Ropey Guest who looks over priced and Hunt Cup winner Dark Shift who loves the track.

 

ROPEY GUEST 1 point each way @ 16/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

DARK SHIFT 1 point each way @ 6/1 Boylesports 1/5th 123456

 

York 3.15

Only five go to post for the Sky Bet York Stakes, a group 2 contest run over 1m 2F 56yds. I believe currently we have the wrong favourite here in the improving Jane Chapple- Hyam trained Claymore. He won the group three Hampton Court at Royal Ascot from the odds on and disappointing favourite of the Gosden’s Reach For The Moon and as progressive as he is is still officially rated 9lb behind William Haggas’s Dubai Honour who if straight enough surely goes off favourite here. Runner up in the Champion Stakes on Champions Day at Ascot last October he was last seen when 10th of 15 beaten 4 1/4L in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March. A genuine group one performer he’ll be hard to beat if forward enough. Sir Busker and Dark Moon Rising don’t look good enough whilst Saeed Bin Suroor’s Dubai Future is not without a chance either.

 

DUBAI HONOUR 3 points win @ 2/1 Boylesports

 

Ascot 3.35

The day’s feature race is the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes run over a mile and a half where the Classic generation meet their elders. The two three year olds are unlucky Derby 3rd and Irish Derby victor Westover from the Ralph Beckett camp and unlucky Oaks runner up Emily Upjohn from the John and Thady Gosden stable. Both have obvious claims and it would not be a shock if either won this. Personally I think they’ll need to step up here against the four older horses. The horse who’s overpriced surely is the Arc De Triomphe winner Torquator Tasso in double figure odds. He won that prestigious race on heavy ground though and if the ground remains fast couldn’t be put up as a bet. Broome ran 4th in this last year and looked good over course and distance in the Hardwicke Stakes at the Royal meeting. It’s not often you can get 20/1 plus about a Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore runner in a group one that’s for sure. They may all have to go mind to beat the other John and Thady Gosden runner Mishriff. He went down by 1 3/4L in this last year to that year’s Derby winner Adayar and was an unlucky loser when not getting a clear run in the Eclipse at Sandown at the beginning of the month. David Egan has lost the ride (and job) on the horse since but the more than capable James Doyle takes over. In a race to saviour he may well be worth a small interest.

 

MISHRIFF 1 point win @ 7/2 bet365

 

Grear stuff from our leading correspodents. Ill look at the TV races later. In my eye / computer head system there is just one horse today, in the Newmarket 1.35.

The magnificent looking Bailey's Showtime....50-1. It ran a dreadful tace st Windsor. Legs everywhere at the wrong time in the wrong place. Did I catch a glimpse of the colt getting it right in the last 100 yards,? An awesome set of high profile yards against the 'clown horse' but go on at 50-1 ew not much down side.

[kensland]

Double. 

1.57. Newm. Good American.       3/1..... unpl 

3.35. Ascot. Westover                        13/8..... unpl 

singles & double 

Ascot. 

Single. 

3.00. Star of Orion.      14/1     ew.... unpl 

Good luck all. 

Edited July 23, 2022 by kensland

[fd1972uk]

Bets for today

Asc 1350 Lezoo mb3/4 sky/pp

Asc 1425 ocula and kind gesture betfair mb offer

Yor 1440 gale force may & hyperfocus ew 5pl

York 1535 westover, also fb used on Emily upjohn.

Good luck all.

[Budgie 65]

150 as lezoo nap

315 yo Dubai future 

335 as mishriff

 

 

 

[Zilzalian]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

I think on a Saturday I'll go big on the big races of the day just for a shot at winning a few quid .....I could go ew but then you only win 90 as opposed to 180 .....I like the excitement lol ?....and I need to make some big donations to my holiday fund ? 

Men back win sh*t or bust, the ew is for the ladies in the snug with a half of stout. ??

[Tedthewolf]

3 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

Men back win sh*t or bust, the ew is for the ladies in the snug with a half of stout. ??

Could i have  half a stout  please sweetheart ?....lol

Edited July 23, 2022 by Tedthewolf

[calva decoy]

2.40 York - MUSIC SOCIETY 12/1 eway sky ( 5 places ) a returns a return @Zilzalian 

4. 32 Newcastle - THUNDERING 10/3 Bet365 .

[black rabbit]

Ropey guest   3 00 asc      1/5 pt win    16/1             extra places / some bookies 

Normadic empire  2 40 york  1/5 pt ew 25/1 

chiefofchiefs  3 00 asc   1/5 pt win   18/1

Broom   3 35 asc    1/5 pt win  16/1  

 

 

 

P/L   + 137.25

 

 

 

       

Edited July 23, 2022 by black rabbit
selections

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Zilzalian said:

Men back win sh*t or bust, the ew is for the ladies in the snug with a half of stout. ??

I don't like ew betting but at the prices I feel that @richard-westwood is being greedy in going for win bets at the prices.  It looks like a dark shift from the norm to me. I do wish him all the best and hope he collects on both his races

[richard-westwood]

15 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I don't like ew betting but at the prices I feel that @richard-westwood is being greedy in going for win bets at the prices.  It looks like a dark shift from the norm to me. I do wish him all the best and hope he collects on both his races

Only on the weekend big races .....might get my ass kicked a few times but sooner or later it will pay a big dividend then I can top the bank back up and pay the rest off holiday ....lol 

[Tedthewolf]

Each to their own guys. 

Lets beat those pesky bookies that's all that really matters.

[The Equaliser]

11 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Only on the weekend big races .....might get my ass kicked a few times but sooner or later it will pay a big dividend then I can top the bank back up and pay the rest off holiday ....lol 

I love your optimism, I think you are even brave in planning a holiday if it's abroad.  Very best of luck ?

[Tedthewolf]

29 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I don't like ew betting but at the prices I feel that @richard-westwood is being greedy in going for win bets at the prices.  It looks like a dark shift from the norm to me. I do wish him all the best and hope he collects on both his races

Not really greedy i don;t think, he is  just confident in his system/selections.

[The Equaliser]

6 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Not really greedy i don;t think, he is  just confident in his system/selections.

Well OK, but don't forget he has his followers and I just worry that they would have been better off playing it safer with 5 points each way instead of going for the all out win.  I love Richard's confidence he is an inspiration to us all

Edited July 23, 2022 by The Equaliser

[Tedthewolf]

2 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Well OK, but don't forget he has his followers and I just worry that they would have been better off playing it safer with 5 points each way instead of going for the all out win.  I love Richard's confidence he is an inspiration to us all

Maybe followers will play e/w its there  choice  if they feel that's a better option.

If i was following Richards selections  long term because  he picks abt 3  in every race  i would  back anything under 10//1  as a win bet all others e/w  but that''s just my thoughts.

[The Equaliser]

Too much racing today and only 3 meetings tomorrow, I do wish they would spread out the quality racing for us over the week

1.57 Nm Dubai Love 7/4

2.25 Asc Zenbaq 15/8

4.10 Asc Naval Power Evens

4.45 Asc Saga 7/4

6 x 0.5 win dbles, 4 x 0.5 win trbles and 1x 0.5 win 4 fold = 5.5 with poss return of 76.02

 

2.05 Yk Val De Travers 4/1

2.40 YK Silver Samurai 6/1

3.42 Nm Pure Dreamer 7/2

5.00 Yk Emeraty Hero 9/2

6x 0.3 win dbles, 4 x 0.30 win trbles and 1 x 0.30 win 4 fold = 3.30 stakes with poss return of 507.88 

Singles: all 0.5 win bets

1.50 Asc Omniqueen 14/1

3.00 Asc Accidental Agent 30/1

3.50 Yk Tessa 10/1

4.25 YK Fox Vardy 5/1

5.35 YK Fourth Time Lucky 8/1

3.07 Nm Audience 7/1

4.17 Nm Red Kite 9/1

Total stakes 12.30 for a very full afternoon's entertainment

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RESULTS UPDATE

3 Winners, a second and a 3rd but not in the same multiple bet.  I had a small win double that returned 2.75 points.  This meant a loss of 9.55 points on the day.  My MTD is -18.9 and YTD is -161.92

There are three meetings tomorrow with the possibility of 13 qualifying races so I may be having a go

Edited July 23, 2022 by The Equaliser
RESULTS UPDATE

[MCLARKE]

24 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Maybe followers will play e/w its there  choice  if they feel that's a better option.

If i was following Richards selections  long term because  he picks abt 3  in every race  i would  back anything under 10//1  as a win bet all others e/w  but that''s just my thoughts.

Personally I don't back each way unless the bookie is offering at least 4 places. It might be value if the favourite is odds on.

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Men back win sh*t or bust, the ew is for the ladies in the snug with a half of stout. 

What's stout Grandad ? !

[MCLARKE]

BET365 4/1 TV offer selections

ASCO	1.50	Glenlaurel (4)	11/2
ASCO	2.25	Kind Gesture (2)	11/2

[azzybear]

real terms 1.00