Tennis Tips - May 16 - May 22

[neilovan]

24 minutes ago, amity said:

Baez got it together near the end of the second set and cruised home in the third, but Fognini has been well below par, not looking likely that he'll turn it around.

Fognini had an injury time out. Heaven forbid that one of my runners retires when losing. I have bet against Radacanu 3 times and every time she was losing, she quit the match. It's a joke that a journeyman like Kokkinakis wins here ... his game is so limited.

 

Question: How many points will Radacanu lose when she gets beaten 1st or 2nd round at the US open? I think she got 40 from the qualifiers and 2000 for winning, but if she cannot defend her win (as expected), she could lose close to 1900 points. WOuld put her down in the 60 world ranking bracket.

Edited May 17, 2022 by neilovan

[neilovan]

12 minutes ago, Torque said:

The problem with Fognini is always one of motivation. Unless he's a big price and unless it's a tournament where I think he'll care - what do I know by the way - I leave him well alone. Like Stephens yesterday, he's a player that I'm no fan of because there are times where he doesn't try and just gives up. His high level his high, but his low level is dismal.

Also no hunger, they are too well off financially. Just going through the motions, collecting 250K a year and playing out the last few years.

[Torque]

1 minute ago, neilovan said:

Also no hunger, they are too well off financially. Just going through the motions, collecting 250K a year and playing out the last few years.

Definitely seems like it's too easy to just cruise. Fognini plus the likes of Paire and Basilashvili only need one or two good tournaments a year and then they can lose nearly every other match they play and still be ranked top 50.

[Torque]

If I understand correctly, the ranking system right now takes into account the best result for each player at each level of tournament. I'd like to see an average result for each level of tournament used instead - that would weed out the loafers like Fognini, Paire and Basilashvili. You wouldn't be able to have one or two great tournaments each year like Basilashvili in Germany and Dubai and then go out first round in all the others and still be ranked so high.

[neilovan]

6 minutes ago, Torque said:

Definitely seems like it's too easy to just cruise. Fognini plus the likes of Paire and Basilashvili only need one or two good tournaments a year and then they can lose nearly every other match they play and still be ranked top 50.

They also understand the game totally, so they are very selective regarding which tournaments they play, what points they are defending etc etc. Very similar to a golf handicap cheat who knows exactly what he can score in every round, to still maintain a high handicap.

[Robinnho]

They also see the draw and who they are playing in the next round if they are the better (and stronger) player who can win.......................................... but can choose otherwise and not to qualify to the next round.  Of course the monetary reward must be better than what they can make playing in the next round!!!!

[neilovan]

De Minaur playing a guy he should slaughter, and he can't win a point. How excellent!

Hopefully if he has an injury he retires. But losing a set 6-0 should not have a huge effect. It is not like anything has been invested in it.

Medvedev losing to Gasquet is also like a cold day in hell.

Edited May 17, 2022 by neilovan

[Torque]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

De Minaur playing a guy he should slaughter, and he can't win a point. How excellent!

Hopefully if he has an injury he retires. But losing a set 6-0 should not have a huge effect. It is not like anything has been invested in it.

Medvedev losing to Gasquet is also like a cold day in hell.

If Medvedev does lose it's not a big surprise though is it. First match in ages, hates clay, against Gasquet who's at home and likes the clay and is still capable of flashes of brilliance.

EDIT: Gasquet's not at home is he - was sure he was playing at home as the chance was there  

Edited May 17, 2022 by Torque

[CzechPunter]

Must say that Kiki is playing exactly as before. A good first set, now looking to lose the decider ?.

[CzechPunter]

Rebecca Marino to beat Katerina Zavatska at 1.75 with BetVictor

Quite fancy Marino in this one, there were plenty of successful bigger hitters in R1 and Marino can do a lot of damage with her serve alone, even on clay. She's typically playing on the main level, unlike Zavatska, and I don't think the clay court factor plays a major role, especially given that Zavatska hasn't had any major wins lately. Marino has also already beaten her this year, 6-3 6-2 in Miami. Unless Zavatska recreates some of that BJK Cup magic against Rogers, she'll be in for a tough ride.

[Torque]

11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Kristina Mladenovic to beat Tessah Andrianjafitrimo at 1.87 with Pinnacle

Well, if this fails then it will fail spectacularly and for obvious reasons, but I think Mladenovic is finally where she should be odds-wise and not a favourite like against many of the players she's recently lost to. She wasn't playing that poorly in those matches, but now she's dropping down by a level again in terms of opposition and it has that French derby feel to it as well. Tessah is actually a lucky loser here and her qualifying run was awful, so hopefully that counts for something as well. I was expecting Mladenovic to be like 1.53 and that would be untouchable, but I can't resist the temptation at 1.87.

I'm jinxing it as it isn't over just yet, but it looks like Mladenovic has just about scraped over the line. When I said strap in I didn't think it would be this tortuous - not worth it surely 

[Torque]

She nearly blew the breaker as well. She's got to be up there with the worst players for choking and losing as a favourite that I can think of.

Edited May 17, 2022 by Torque

[888888]

14 hours ago, neilovan said:

De Minaur playing a guy he should slaughter, and he can't win a point. How excellent!

Hopefully if he has an injury he retires. But losing a set 6-0 should not have a huge effect. It is not like anything has been invested in it.

Medvedev losing to Gasquet is also like a cold day in hell.

for the record Ugo Humbert just in the 2nd set had a total of 11 break points in 3 games in a row and didn't convert a single one, 0 for 11 and then obviously he got broken straight away; he is so weak mentally he is going on my black list never betting on him again.

[raduvlad1995]

I anticipated that busta is gonna struggle agaisnt coria so didn t bet on him but what the hell is hapening to this guy ? he used to be so consistent, and the thing is his movement is still there but for some reason he s just not consistent anymore. Weird since that was his entire shtick

[neilovan]

3 hours ago, 888888 said:

for the record Ugo Humbert just in the 2nd set had a total of 11 break points in 3 games in a row and didn't convert a single one, 0 for 11 and then obviously he got broken straight away; he is so weak mentally he is going on my black list never betting on him again.

He's actually a great player to bet against. The effect of losing matches from winning positions lingers, and is devastating. It's like a bad beat in poker. SOme people it festers and others just shrug it off.  Just make a list (if you have the stats which you can get from tennis-data.co.uk in csv form), of every player that bombs out after losing a close set. They are weak mentally. And similarly, look at players that win set 2 after losing a close set 1 (go and see Bianca Andreescu in ASB classic 2019, playing Venus Williams ... loses 1st set 7-6, comes back and beats her 6-3 6-1). 7 months later she's winning a US Open.

Was just messing around with Tableau and made a games handicap checker. You just put in the starting (bet365) odds range for the favorite, and then see how many times the fav beats the games handicap  (choose year range, tournament and what handicap spread). I posted it online here;

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/neilvanasselt/viz/tennisgameshandicapping/Dashboard1?publish=yes

Quite interesting that the French Open and WImbledon have the lowest handicap cover rates, which indicates that players can't make a smooth transition to grass and clay. I can't calculate profit/loss numbers because I don't have the starting match odds for the handicaps.

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by neilovan

[888888]

2 hours ago, neilovan said:

He's actually a great player to bet against. The effect of losing matches from winning positions lingers, and is devastating. It's like a bad beat in poker. SOme people it festers and others just shrug it off.  Just make a list (if you have the stats which you can get from tennis-data.co.uk in csv form), of every player that bombs out after losing a close set. They are weak mentally. And similarly, look at players that win set 2 after losing a close set 1 (go and see Bianca Andreescu in ASB classic 2019, playing Venus Williams ... loses 1st set 7-6, comes back and beats her 6-3 6-1). 7 months later she's winning a US Open.

Was just messing around with Tableau and made a games handicap checker. You just put in the starting (bet365) odds range for the favorite, and then see how many times the fav beats the games handicap  (choose year range, tournament and what handicap spread). I posted it online here;

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/neilvanasselt/viz/tennisgameshandicapping/Dashboard1?publish=yes

Quite interesting that the French Open and WImbledon have the lowest handicap cover rates, which indicates that players can't make a smooth transition to grass and clay. I can't calculate profit/loss numbers because I don't have the starting match odds for the handicaps.

 

very interesting and very good analysis, thank you.

[CzechPunter]

Marino does the trick and it wasn't even as nervy as Mladenovic yesterday! 6-1 6-2!

[neilovan]

36 minutes ago, 888888 said:

very interesting and very good analysis, thank you.

So it's kind of interesting. If you take French open 2021, ATP with favorites win odds between between 0.02 and 0.13 you get odds around even money on a -5.5 game handicap bet. But there were 22 winners and only 5 losers in 2021, and this type of bet would have won money every year of the last 6 years. Looking at Ruud today, -5.5 is even money to cover, and the the probability is that he will do it. I will change the viz to let a user select all tournaments, and choose a surface, and it will show the results for all clay court matches (when selected)

[Robinnho]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Marino does the trick and it wasn't even as nervy as Mladenovic yesterday! 6-1 6-2!

Thank you very much for the PRE-MATCH pick, opinion............................................ title of this thread is Tennis Tips???????????

But it was flooded with NOT useful AFTER-MATCH talks, complaints, grumblings on looser bets which were NOT POSTED!

Many EXPERT Pundits here are only TALKING only AFTER-MATCHES........... WIN is GOOD, LOSS is SHIT................... No Point and NOT USEFUL AT ALL!

 

[CzechPunter]

Well, I think the after-match discussion adds a lot, even for myself, so I'm more than happy that it exists and I'm very grateful to everyone! Your post comes across as perhaps a bit offensive, so please tone it down, thank you!

[neilovan]

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

[raduvlad1995]

3 hours ago, neilovan said:

I think if the after match thoughts help you learn, and not make the same mistake again, then they are worthwhile.

100% , thats why I myself am on this forum, to learn from more experienced people and their analysis. It's all about taking what you ve learnt from your losses and applying it in future bets. 

[raduvlad1995]

shapovalov realy starts to remind me more and more of wawrinka, such talented shotmakers marked by mental frailty and inconsistency. 

[Foo_Fighter]

28 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

shapovalov realy starts to remind me more and more of wawrinka, such talented shotmakers marked by mental frailty and inconsistency. 

Shapovalov is gonna be a factor in Wimbledon.  He's rather weak and irrelevant on clay, despite his win over Nadal in Rome. Nadal is so far from his best these days...

[raduvlad1995]

7 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Shapovalov is gonna be a factor in Wimbledon.  He's rather weak and irrelevant on clay, despite his win over Nadal in Rome. Nadal is so far from his best these days...

rafa got injured , otherwise the first set was his good clay level. I think shapovalov should do okay on clay actualy, all with his big backswings and being a lefty.

[Foo_Fighter]

32 minutes ago, raduvlad1995 said:

rafa got injured , otherwise the first set was his good clay level. I think shapovalov should do okay on clay actualy, all with his big backswings and being a lefty.

I mean, he's kind of limited, most players manage to expose his backhand, which remains unreliable and shaky most of the times, especially on surfaces with a high bounce like clay. On grass and hard however, he's feeling more comfortable, playing first strike tennis, taking the ball on the rise etc. 

[Robinnho]

Oh Ya, Shapo who has the world ranking of #15 and who has just beaten Nadal recently lost to Ivashka.  He is not good, he is not consistent!

Luckily I did not bet on him this time.  Those who did must be cursing and swearing!

Edited May 18, 2022 by Robinnho

[Robinnho]

I bet against Mladenovic in a combo with Claire Liu win and got a satisfactory payout.  Mladenovic at the age of 29 and a former ranked #11 WTA player has past her prime and I think she will be hanging around not for too long (to earn some bucks) and will not beat any Top 100 WTA player.

Thanks to @neilovan for highlighting the youngster C. Liu (at 20) and I watched her and think she can improve further!  But this is a sport's bet, this is a gamble, every time you have decided to place a bet, you need to have the luck to win so bet with care!

  

[Stanimal]

7 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

shapovalov realy starts to remind me more and more of wawrinka, such talented shotmakers marked by mental frailty and inconsistency. 

3 time grand slam champion compared with this kid.. He reminds me of youznhy (his coach/ex coach) 

[raduvlad1995]

39 minutes ago, Stanimal said:

3 time grand slam champion compared with this kid.. He reminds me of youznhy (his coach/ex coach) 

it's about his game, they have prety similar ways of playing. One handers, first strike aggresive tennis etc.