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Tennis Tips - May 16 - May 22


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5 hours ago, Robinnho said:

I bet against Mladenovic in a combo with Claire Liu win and got a satisfactory payout.  Mladenovic at the age of 29 and a former ranked #11 WTA player has past her prime and I think she will be hanging around not for too long (to earn some bucks) and will not beat any Top 100 WTA player.

Thanks to @neilovan for highlighting the youngster C. Liu (at 20) and I watched her and think she can improve further!  But this is a sport's bet, this is a gamble, every time you have decided to place a bet, you need to have the luck to win so bet with care!

  

you think a 29 years old player is past her prime ? maybe just mentaly.

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Mihaela Buzarnescu to beat Mirjam Bjorklund at 1.93 with Unibet

Going for the experience angle in this one, otherwise this does look pretty 50/50 to me. Bjorklund hasn't actually made it to any GS main draws just yet and that sort of thing can get to you, even if you have been playing well up to that point. She's never convinced me with her quality, either, so I was looking for Buzarnescu at around 1.70.

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Posted (edited)

Anybody have a formula for doing a rough calculation for games handicap odds, based on favorites starting win odds?

 

so if fav is 1.04 what would formula for -3.5 games handicap be

so if fav is 1.04 what would formula for -4.5 games handicap be

so if fav is 1.04 what would formula for -5.5 games handicap be

etc

 

Edited by neilovan
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, neilovan said:

Anybody have a formula for doing a rough calculation for games handicap odds, based on favorites starting win odds?

 

so if fav is 1.04 what would formula for -3.5 games handicap be

so if fav is 1.04 what would formula for -4.5 games handicap be

so if fav is 1.04 what would formula for -5.5 games handicap be

etc

 

Not sure they are necessarily related @neilovan An example to illustrate the point would be an Isner or an Opelka. They might be say 1.20 for a win, but their handicap line will be different than Nadal or Djokovic at the same price due to the fact they break far less and so are more likely to be involved in tie-breaks.

Edited by Torque
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Posted (edited)

So I upgraded the dashboard slightly, to show breakdown of handicap as well as expected sets (2,3)  or (3,4,5) for the French open.

Was looking at the woman's draw and found 10 matches where the fav is between 1.03 and 1.14 (inclusive). 

Muchova, Sabalenka, Sakkari, Krejcikova, Alexandrova, Fernandez, Jabeur, Badosa, Halep and Pliskova. The 2:0 score in sets was priced between 0.16 and 0.44 and averaged around 1.32 .  Looking at the new numbers for the WTA, you can't make money betting on sets at the French open. More profitable at US open and Aussie Open.

If you choose Surface (hard), and Tournament (Slams), handicap (5.5) you are seeing results for those two tournaments. 166 winners, 83 losers so about 66% win rate. 1/0.66 gives you odds around 1.5 . So it seems the way to go at US open and Aussie open, especially if you can take the -5.5 favorite and are getting odds greater than 1.5

AT French, it seems far more profitable to bet on games handicap. Again, I don't have the handicap starting odds (say for -3.5 games). Assume you were getting on average 4 to 10, for the fav to cover the -3.5 game handicap. Well, they are covering it 91 time in 113  on the WTA (6 years).  SO 91 X  0.4 = 36.4 - 22losers gives you 14.4 .   14.4/113 = is only around 13% profit  . If you could get odds around 5/10 you would be making 21%.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/neilvanasselt/viz/tennisgameshandicapping/Dashboard1?publish=yes

Most of these big favorites are getting around  9 to 10 to cover -6.5 games. If you put a handicap of 6.5 into the dashboard you would land up losing your boots taking the fav. It's almost as if you have to oppose the -6.5 games handicap here. (for example Jabeaur -5.5 is 1.66 and Linett +5.5 is 2.10).  It seems the break even point is around the 5.5 handicap mark, but my initial feeling is to take the + games player.

So my feeling is take the SETS (2) at US Open and Aussie Open, and go against the handicap (-5.5) at the French Open (WTA).

Edited by neilovan
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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Torque said:

Not sure they are necessarily related @neilovan An example to illustrate the point would be an Isner or an Opelka. They might be say 1.20 for a win, but their handicap line will be different than Nadal or Djokovic at the same price due to the fact they break far less and so are more likely to be involved in tie-breaks.

Quite interesting. You show "2021-2022 Tennis: 96-116, +1501.26pts, +22.6%" on 215 bets. I have 367 bets, staked 528.25 units, returned 128.065  for a 24.2% return.  367 bets , 54 losers and 313 winners.

I have not been betting massively, and changed something on the 5/6/2022 which has given me a crazy run of 31 winner in 35 predictions ( 16 units profit in 44 units bet which is crazy). I'm expecting a return to the norm soon?

Raining again here, which is insane. Weather is on it's head. At one stage in the Summer it rained off tennis 4 weekends in a row, which is unheard off. Normally Jo'burg Winters are sunny and clear with hardly any rain. Literally 10 weeks and it's spring. 

 

Edited by neilovan
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14 minutes ago, neilovan said:

Quite interesting. You show "2021-2022 Tennis: 96-116, +1501.26pts, +22.6%" on 215 bets. I have 367 bets, staked 528.25 units, returned 128.065  for a 24.2% return.  367 bets , 54 losers and 313 winners.

I have not been betting massively, and changed something on the 5/6/2022 which has given me a crazy run of 31 winner in 35 predictions ( 16 units profit in 44 units bet which is crazy). I'm expecting a return to the norm soon?

Raining again here, which is insane. Weather is on it's head. At one stage in the Summer it rained off tennis 4 weekends in a row, which is unheard off. Normally Jo'burg Winters are sunny and clear with hardly any rain. Literally 10 weeks and it's spring. 

 

Was there a point to quoting my figures as I've missed it if there was.

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2 minutes ago, Torque said:

Was there a point to quoting my figures as I've missed it if there was.

Yes, we are both making profit with slightly different strategies. So it's almost like the best result is kind of a combination of both approaches.

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1 minute ago, neilovan said:

Yes, we are both making profit with slightly different strategies. So it's almost like the best result is kind of a combination of both approaches.

Oh I see now. You mean you bet handicaps and I bet straight.

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12 hours ago, Torque said:

Oh I see now. You mean you bet handicaps and I bet straight.

For my system I am not betting sets or handicaps. Just straight low priced favorites to win with certain conditions.

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3 hours ago, neilovan said:

For my system I am not betting sets or handicaps. Just straight low priced favorites to win with certain conditions.

Oh right got it now. You're odds on and I'm usually odds against.

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Just now, Torque said:

Oh right got it now. You're odds on and I'm usually odds against.

A long time ago I used to think that value only really existed at odds against, and it's a line you see trumpeted all over the place. The reality though, and it makes perfect sense, is it can exist at any price.

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52 minutes ago, Torque said:

A long time ago I used to think that value only really existed at odds against, and it's a line you see trumpeted all over the place. The reality though, and it makes perfect sense, is it can exist at any price.

I use to think in terms of "never bet odds on" and by odds on I really meant shorter than 2/1! That was a long time ago though.

In terms of the spreads I used to think "sell high and buy low" but really meant "just buy low, never sell as it's too risky". Now I tend more to "sell everything and rarely buy anything". 

We live and learn!

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