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Tennis Tips - May 16 - May 22


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  • 3 weeks later...

1 pick for the French Open Qualifying match today:

ATP: ZAPATA MIRALLES-7 GAMES HANDICAP OVER SELA @ 1.42 pinnacle
Sela is almost 38 years old and it will be his first match on clay for 3 years playing against clay court specialist Zapata Miralles with a lot of good wins on clay recently. Expect it to be an easy win for Zapata Miralles.

 

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Lyon about to start and I'm taking Bedene to beat Kwon. I have this as a much more even contest than the odds do and probably the reason for Bedene being so big is his relative lack of activity. Clay is his best surface though so I think he's got a decent shot at winning this.

10pts Bedene to beat Kwon @ 3.00 365

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2 hours ago, Torque said:

Lyon about to start and I'm taking Bedene to beat Kwon. I have this as a much more even contest than the odds do and probably the reason for Bedene being so big is his relative lack of activity. Clay is his best surface though so I think he's got a decent shot at winning this.

10pts Bedene to beat Kwon @ 3.00 365

i took him too , serving for the match in the 2nd 5-4 30-0 up , lost 4 points in a row to get broken and then...

he probably had decided not to reach the 2nd round prior to the match because of RG next week , i wonder how much money his relatives made betting against him when Kwon was at @15 then @5 then @2

hope he gets trashed in the 1st round at RG

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28 minutes ago, 888888 said:

i took him too , serving for the match in the 2nd 5-4 30-0 up , lost 4 points in a row to get broken and then...

he probably had decided not to reach the 2nd round prior to the match because of RG next week , i wonder how much money his relatives made betting against him when Kwon was at @15 then @5 then @2

hope he gets trashed in the 1st round at RG

Yeah that was a tough one. I didn't see it, but it's hard to imagine he gave full effort in that final set. It may not have been deliberate though. Lots of players really struggle mentally when they fail to serve out sets and matches. 

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Anybody thinking about backing Sloane Stephens in any match ever against any opponent - save your money. She's just lost to #306 Berberovic and couldn't have looked less interested if she'd tried. Based on the last two sets it's a miracle she won the first.

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30 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

A bit like Jankovic pre-GS?

I'm not sure I buy the pre-GS argument this time. I wouldn't want to go into the French without a single win on clay behind me. For me, the players that give 'less effort' are usually the ones who are already nicely oiled and ready to go. There's no way Stephens was that and even less so after that performance.

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She was poor at the AO as well so that's another argument against the idea that she had her mind on the French. To me it just looks like she can't be bothered to put any effort in. She won the first set and then after that it was as though she didn't care whether she won or lost. Not that that's exceptional for her in recent years - she's been like that almost the whole time since she won the US. It's something I really struggle to tolerate. If you do nothing else, try. Losing is a big part of being a tennis player - most players lose more than they win - and so it's fine to lose as it's expected. But at least lose having tried your best to win, otherwise I don't think you should be on the court although I understand why players are.

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Posted (edited)

FRENCH OPEN QUALIFYING:

I find these times between main tournaments quite tricky. French open qualifying is difficult. It's simple, lower ranked players are more inconsistent. I think the trick to winning here is to find players that have just missed making it into the main draw. You need  a source of information to make a 1st selection of possible picks. So look at something  like this;

https://www.atptour.com/en/rankings/singles?rankDate=2022-5-16&countryCode=all&rankRange=101-200

and find those players ranked 100 to 165 that are not automatically in the main draw. These are the best of the rest.

SO you take a guy like Fernando Verdasco playing Damir Dzumhur.

Verdasco ranked 103 and Dzumhur ranked 160, yet Verdasco is at 1.8 and Dzumhur at 1.9 . For me, Verdasco is great value based on being 57 spots higher in the rankings. I don't particularly like him (abusing the ball kids), but I think he wins.

Paul Jubb (ranked 266) versus Christopher Eubanks ranked 156, yet Eubanks is almost at the same price, and on bet365 Eubanks is a the underdog at 1.9 . Eubanks for me here.

My 3rd bet here is Andrej Martin to beat Luca Nardi. Martin up 44 places in the rankings to a position of 130, while Nardi is ranked at 200. Yet Nardi is a big favorite, which really does not make much sense.

I'll take all 3 as small stake singles tomorrow, and as a (smaller stake) treble.

I didn't look at the WTA rankings but you can do similar.

ATP GENEVA

If Fognini half shows up he wipes Kokkinakis off the court. Fognini is just one of those crazy talented players ...  I call them showbinkies! Hitting that off the charts incredible shot, is sometimes more important than winning (to them). Last tournament he lost to Sinner, but for a reasonable period he just hit the ball incredibly. Winners from everywhere. He's just gotta be focused for 90 minutes and this match is done. Kokkinakis simply can't live with him.

ATP LYON

De Minaur is going to beat Humbert. A perfect style matchup for him. Essentially get 90 minutes of match practice against an opponent that can't beat you. Not so crazy about the odds of 1.4 on De Minaur, but I expect him to cover the -3.5 game handicap easily (odds 1.8). Humbert has zero confidence at the moment. He has not been beaten in recent weeks ..., he's been bludgeoned, and it has to have negative subconscious implications. 

WTA FRENCH QUALIES Super dangerous, and a good place to lose money. Best stay away from this.

WTA RABAT

Gotta go with the inform youngster, Claire Lui to win in straight sets tomorrow against Rakhimova. Lui should have plenty of confidence and be in a good head space, which should deliver a victory here. I think being a very very good junior player really helps, because they get used to winning, and it keeps them level headed (they know they are only at the beginning of their pro career journey) .

 

Edited by neilovan
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Hi Neilovan.

I was just looking matches for tomorrow and both Fognini and De Minaur finished on my watchlist. Very good odd on Fognini (1.60). I was thinking about Baez (still no odds for that match) because this huy is on fire currently. What do you think?

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Just now, carina007 said:

Hi Neilovan.

I was just looking matches for tomorrow and both Fognini and De Minaur finished on my watchlist. Very good odd on Fognini (1.60). I was thinking about Baez (still no odds for that match) because this huy is on fire currently. What do you think?

He's gonna be very good (Baez). Even in Rome he was already very close to Zverev. He wins that breaker and the upset is on (and he lost it 8-6). Zverev just had the experience to play the big points and moments, better. But it is not easy playing one of your idols ... it has to have some effect. But having said that, you actually learn a lot from losing. Psychologically, emotionally, and practically ... and in a crazy way a few defeats don't really hurt you as long as you go forward taking positives from them. Wins or losses are just so short term ... the trick is to stay on your path and keep to the long term plan. 

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48 minutes ago, neilovan said:

He's gonna be very good (Baez). Even in Rome he was already very close to Zverev. He wins that breaker and the upset is on (and he lost it 8-6). Zverev just had the experience to play the big points and moments, better. But it is not easy playing one of your idols ... it has to have some effect. But having said that, you actually learn a lot from losing. Psychologically, emotionally, and practically ... and in a crazy way a few defeats don't really hurt you as long as you go forward taking positives from them. Wins or losses are just so short term ... the trick is to stay on your path and keep to the long term plan. 

wait , baez has zverev as his idol ? they re prety much almost the same age

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, raduvlad1995 said:

wait , baez has zverev as his idol ? they re prety much almost the same age

Maybe the wrong words, but definitely someone he would look up too. Baez is 21 and Zverev 25.

Edited by neilovan
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1 hour ago, Robinnho said:

Baez is in-form but Otte is also in good shape playing very well recently.  I see no value @1.40rish for Baez to beat Otte........... IMHO, odds should be close to1.70rish.

I think there is value in Baez, because he has won 9 of his last 10 matches. Won 5 in Estoril winning tournament against very good players. Won 3 of 4 in Italian open and 1 match here. Anyone winning 9 of 10 is on a seriously good streak (especially in tennis), where even having a reasonable positive win record is so difficult. I think he is 15 and 5 this year on clay. I will go quite a large bet on Baez and de Minaur as a double today

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Kristina Mladenovic to beat Tessah Andrianjafitrimo at 1.87 with Pinnacle

Well, if this fails then it will fail spectacularly and for obvious reasons, but I think Mladenovic is finally where she should be odds-wise and not a favourite like against many of the players she's recently lost to. She wasn't playing that poorly in those matches, but now she's dropping down by a level again in terms of opposition and it has that French derby feel to it as well. Tessah is actually a lucky loser here and her qualifying run was awful, so hopefully that counts for something as well. I was expecting Mladenovic to be like 1.53 and that would be untouchable, but I can't resist the temptation at 1.87.

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55 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I think there is value in Baez, because he has won 9 of his last 10 matches. Won 5 in Estoril winning tournament against very good players. Won 3 of 4 in Italian open and 1 match here. Anyone winning 9 of 10 is on a seriously good streak (especially in tennis), where even having a reasonable positive win record is so difficult. I think he is 15 and 5 this year on clay. I will go quite a large bet on Baez and de Minaur as a double today

Let's face it - Baez should be a big favorite if he's up for it and he's definitely better on clay than Otte, much better when on song. At the same time, he's played so much tennis during the clay court season that he's bound to be really tired for the French Open if he goes far in Lyon. I think that he shouldn't be playing this for his own sake, but he does give off those Schwartzman vibes of always trying. Good luck!

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41 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Kristina Mladenovic to beat Tessah Andrianjafitrimo at 1.87 with Pinnacle

Well, if this fails then it will fail spectacularly and for obvious reasons, but I think Mladenovic is finally where she should be odds-wise and not a favourite like against many of the players she's recently lost to. She wasn't playing that poorly in those matches, but now she's dropping down by a level again in terms of opposition and it has that French derby feel to it as well. Tessah is actually a lucky loser here and her qualifying run was awful, so hopefully that counts for something as well. I was expecting Mladenovic to be like 1.53 and that would be untouchable, but I can't resist the temptation at 1.87.

Strap in!

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So both longshots lost in 3. Martin was actually up 2-0 in final set and Ubanks lost in 10 point breaker. So 3 of 4 small bets lost ?

Just need the 4 big bets of the day (Baez, De Minaur, Fognini and Lui to all win)

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5 hours ago, neilovan said:

Maybe the wrong words, but definitely someone he would look up too. Baez is 21 and Zverev 25.

I mean yeah but they re actualy born just 3 years apart, I would have thought that maybe you can look up to someone who's like 10 years older than you atleast :)) . I don t look up to someone who's like 29 for example .

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1 minute ago, raduvlad1995 said:

I mean yeah but they re actualy born just 3 years apart, I would have thought that maybe you can look up to someone who's like 10 years older than you atleast :)) . I don t look up to someone who's like 29 for example .

I think I was trying to say that he probably looks up to where Zverev is, at a similar age.  But no big deal. Baez and Fognini need to get into gear ?

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31 minutes ago, neilovan said:

I think I was trying to say that he probably looks up to where Zverev is, at a similar age.  But no big deal. Baez and Fognini need to get into gear ?

Baez got it together near the end of the second set and cruised home in the third, but Fognini has been well below par, not looking likely that he'll turn it around.

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The problem with Fognini is always one of motivation. Unless he's a big price and unless it's a tournament where I think he'll care - what do I know by the way - I leave him well alone. Like Stephens yesterday, he's a player that I'm no fan of because there are times where he doesn't try and just gives up. His high level his high, but his low level is dismal.

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