Racing Chat Tuesday 8th February

[black rabbit]

Katheefa   6 30  south  1/4  win   32/1

 

P/L   + 118.5 pts   

Edited February 8, 2022 by black rabbit
results

[richard-westwood]

Just doing as much rating as possible ....I want all the rules set in stone come cheltenham ......I.e the chelt course form I'll do 2 ratings for each race .....the original and a plus 1 on the end in brackets if course form ....its easy enough and will be easy to see if any diff ? 

210 market 

Tara iti  8.6  2/1 

Ravens return  8.6 7/1 

Scrutinise   6.3  25/1 

Kilcaragh lad  6.2 33/1 

Interesting race from a ratings perspective .....top 2 are miles ahead so really one of them should win this or go damn close so because prices low I'll just go 2 horses ......but can the big priced place???....Will be interesting race 

Ordinarily if this was chelt I'd back all 4 but today I'll go 2 just to try squeeze bit more profit if fav wins ? 

2pts Tara....1pt raven (10.0 betfair )

Edited February 8, 2022 by richard-westwood

[alexcaruso808]

Southwell

7:30 - Just In Time - 6.00

 

[richard-westwood]

245 market 

Le grand lion  7.3 8.6 

Florrie knox 7.0 9/2 

Storm light  6.6  4/1 

Steady away  6.5 8.8 

4x1pt wins 

 

[Budgie 65]

500 sou jeans mate 7/2- 100/30

[richard-westwood]

5.00 South

Jeans maite  9.1  5/2 

Red walls   8.9  14.0 

Nubough  8.4 12/1 

Tell em nowt  8.1  4/1 

Scale force  7.5  

2pts Jean....1pt others 

[azzybear]

Chen chong 1.00

[azzybear]

hometown hero 1.35 

[The Equaliser]

The best RPR/Timeform ratings races today appear to be:

1.50 Taun Muy Bien, Sidewaysinmilan 0.5 pts 15/2, Karakaram 0. 5 pts at 6/1, and Mystic Court 0.5 pts at 14/1.  No bet on the favourite

2.45 M/R Storm Of Flight, Schalke, Florrie Knox and Steady Away 0.5 pts at 7/1 (No bet on the first 3)

5.00 Sou Jeans Maite, Maple Jack, Scale Force and 0.5 pts on Red Walls at 12/1

The ones I have left out seem to make little or no profit so I am happy to risk 2.5 points on the longer priced selections

[azzybear]

throw in ..sweet spirit 2.10 

[richard-westwood]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Just doing as much rating as possible ....I want all the rules set in stone come cheltenham ......I.e the chelt course form I'll do 2 ratings for each race .....the original and a plus 1 on the end in brackets if course form ....its easy enough and will be easy to see if any diff ? 

210 market 

Tara iti  8.6  2/1 

Ravens return  8.6 7/1 

Scrutinise   6.3  25/1 

Kilcaragh lad  6.2 33/1 

Interesting race from a ratings perspective .....top 2 are miles ahead so really one of them should win this or go damn close so because prices low I'll just go 2 horses ......but can the big priced place???....Will be interesting race 

Ordinarily if this was chelt I'd back all 4 but today I'll go 2 just to try squeeze bit more profit if fav wins ? 

2pts Tara....1pt raven (10.0 betfair )

What a strange race ....fav crumbled ....winner had done nothing previously ....Ravens 2nd ....kilcuragh 3rd 40/1 !!!!!!.....yah know what I'm super happy with that result 

[richard-westwood]

4 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

245 market 

Le grand lion  7.3 8.6 

Florrie knox 7.0 9/2 

Storm light  6.6  4/1 

Steady away  6.5 8.8 

4x1pt wins 

 

One of those days today .....horses that have done nothing are popping up suddenly....storm light 3rd 

[The Equaliser]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

The best RPR/Timeform ratings races today appear to be:

1.50 Taun Muy Bien, Sidewaysinmilan 0.5 pts 15/2, Karakaram 0. 5 pts at 6/1, and Mystic Court 0.5 pts at 14/1.  No bet on the favourite

2.45 M/R Storm Of Flight, Schalke, Florrie Knox and Steady Away 0.5 pts at 7/1 (No bet on the first 3)

5.00 Sou Jeans Maite, Maple Jack, Scale Force and 0.5 pts on Red Walls at 12/1

The ones I have left out seem to make little or no profit so I am happy to risk 2.5 points on the longer priced selections

I would have backed Schalke at 6/1.  Should have gone for BSP and hoped for the best

I'm not happy at all with today's runners.  I have napped Elhafei in the 5.30 at Sou but haven't backed it

It's very quiet on here today, you can almost here the creditors walking about

[Bang on]

5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

I would have backed Schalke at 6/1.  Should have gone for BSP and hoped for the best

I'm not happy at all with today's runners.  I have napped Elhafei in the 5.30 at Sou but haven't backed it

It's very quiet on here today, you can almost here the creditors walking about

There are 2 threads.

[The Equaliser]

Just now, Bang on said:

There are 2 threads.

Oh sorry, I thought that I checked that there wasn't another one before posting up.  Many thanks

 

[ipswich45]

Southwell Fun - Bet365 unless stated
1700 - 2 Tell'em Nowt      4/1 William Hill   7th
1730 - 1 Soaring Star       2/1   WON
1800 - 5 Theotherside      6/1  2nd
1830 - 2 Custard The Dragon   5/1 William Hill   2nd
1900 - 3 Raydoun    15/2   4th
1930 - 1 Solo Saxophone   7/1   4th
2000 - 1 Silver Dollar     11/4   2nd

Edited February 8, 2022 by ipswich45

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Oh sorry, I thought that I checked that there wasn't another one before posting up.  Many thanks

I have now merged the 2 threads.

[richard-westwood]

6 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

5.00 South

Jeans maite  9.1  5/2 

Red walls   8.9  14.0 

Nubough  8.4 12/1 

Tell em nowt  8.1  4/1 

Scale force  7.5  

2pts Jean....1pt others 

Jeans wins ......I'm happy with results .....racing is a bit low key in week so you get bumps ....weekend is best when they are running for 40 grand lol ....then you know everyone's there to win ....nubough 4th 

Edited February 8, 2022 by richard-westwood

[MCLARKE]

AW selection

Southwell 7.00

ROMAIN IN GLOAMIN 4/1

[richard-westwood]

630 South 

Night lily   8.9 11.5 

Cliffcake  8.7  5.1 

Custard dragon 8.5 6.6 

Daafy 8.3  16.0 

Love your work 7.9 

Wow ....unbelievably close looking race ....love yiur work is short fav but I'll take him on for a bit of fun and we'll see what happens ....interesting race to finish the day ...1pt each 

 

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

630 South 

Night lily   8.9 11.5 

Cliffcake  8.7  5.1 

Custard dragon 8.5 6.6 

Daafy 8.3  16.0 

Love your work 7.9 

Wow ....unbelievably close looking race ....love yiur work is short fav but I'll take him on for a bit of fun and we'll see what happens ....interesting race to finish the day ...1pt each 

 

Cliffcake wins!!

Top 5 finished 1st 2nd 4th 5th 6th ?...fav wasx4th 

 

[Budgie 65]

£30 700 roxoff 5/4

[fd1972uk]

Wish Id took jeans maite, didnt do a bet, but looked a decent chance, mind you 15/8 was in it. My Mums name too. 

Also looked at Mykonos St John, no luck before when I backed it, but did clock my eye, my father in laws name, lol. 

 

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

The best RPR/Timeform ratings races today appear to be:

1.50 Taun Muy Bien, Sidewaysinmilan 0.5 pts 15/2, Karakaram 0. 5 pts at 6/1, and Mystic Court 0.5 pts at 14/1.  No bet on the favourite

2.45 M/R Storm Of Flight, Schalke, Florrie Knox and Steady Away 0.5 pts at 7/1 (No bet on the first 3)

5.00 Sou Jeans Maite, Maple Jack, Scale Force and 0.5 pts on Red Walls at 12/1

The ones I have left out seem to make little or no profit so I am happy to risk 2.5 points on the longer priced selections

RESULTS UPDATE

Very interesting that quite a number of my RPR/Timeform rated horses showed up as @richard-westwoodselections too.  What was even more interesting was when I looked back at the RPR's for a couple of other horses that I was interested in today.  My nap selection was Elhafei in the 5.30 at Southwell. The RP gave the horse a rating of 80 and although Soaring Star had the same rating it was the RPR rating selection.  Checking back I could see that Elhafei was 74 and previously 66.  Soaring Star's previous ratings were 78 & 77 i.e they were higher than Elhafei.  I know that @Trotteronce pointed out how the RP get these ratings but I can't remember what he wrote.  Anyway, it seems to me in hindsight that Soaring Star was the most consistent horse and that I was wrong to choose Elhafei.  What was more striking was the 8.00 at Southwell.  Ubahha was rated as 72 and 10 points clear of Won Love on 62.  When I looked back at the RPR's,  Ubahha previous two RPR's were 52 twice.  Its best RPR on the All Weather was 69.  It had been running very disappointingly and how its RPR got to a lofty 72 is beyond me.  Whilst, of course Richard's ratings are based upon a different method(s) to Timeform and RPR I will certainly be looking back at the RPR's that have been achieved in the past rather than just accepting the new rating that has popped up from the Racing Post.  What may be beneficial to @richard-westwoodand @Wildgardenis that no matter how glowing the today's rating that they have for a runner if that horse has not been running well and is inconsistent then just leave it out of today's betting.  Of course they maybe they may be doing this already in which case the suggestion is not relevant.

I would have backed Schalke at 6/1 but not 9/2 which was the best price I could get this morning.  It is still early days for me with regard to this type of bet so whether I would back all four or just the horses that look to be best is something that I am still considering 

No great loss today, just 2.50 points which leaves me on -27.98 MTD and -101.00 YTD

 

[richard-westwood]

8 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

RESULTS UPDATE

Very interesting that quite a number of my RPR/Timeform rated horses showed up as @richard-westwoodselections too.  What was even more interesting was when I looked back at the RPR's for a couple of other horses that I was interested in today.  My nap selection was Elhafei in the 5.30 at Southwell. The RP gave the horse a rating of 80 and although Soaring Star had the same rating it was the RPR rating selection.  Checking back I could see that Elhafei was 74 and previously 66.  Soaring Star's previous ratings were 78 & 77 i.e they were higher than Elhafei.  I know that @Trotteronce pointed out how the RP get these ratings but I can't remember what he wrote.  Anyway, it seems to me in hindsight that Soaring Star was the most consistent horse and that I was wrong to choose Elhafei.  What was more striking was the 8.00 at Southwell.  Ubahha was rated as 72 and 10 points clear of Won Love on 62.  When I looked back at the RPR's,  Ubahha previous two RPR's were 52 twice.  Its best RPR on the All Weather was 69.  It had been running very disappointingly and how its RPR got to a lofty 72 is beyond me.  Whilst, of course Richard's ratings are based upon a different method(s) to Timeform and RPR I will certainly be looking back at the RPR's that have been achieved in the past rather than just accepting the new rating that has popped up from the Racing Post.  What may be beneficial to @richard-westwoodand @Wildgardenis that no matter how glowing the today's rating that they have for a runner if that horse has not been running well and is inconsistent then just leave it out of today's betting.  Of course they maybe they may be doing this already in which case the suggestion is not relevant.

I would have backed Schalke at 6/1 but not 9/2 which was the best price I could get this morning.  It is still early days for me with regard to this type of bet so whether I would back all four or just the horses that look to be best is something that I am still considering 

No great loss today, just 2.50 points which leaves me on -27.98 MTD and -101.00 YTD

 

If I have joint ratings then I move to rpr as a way of splitting them ....I have found the highest combined rpr and topspeed seems to work really well so I use that often when I have a 3 way split and need to back 2 ....its always worked well so far 

Your suggestion is sound and I reckon you could get some strong bets using that ....it makes sense but I think on my ratings it would push out the big priced horses who sometimes haven't performed well or are stepping up in class so consequently will have lower rprs etc but they still win if rated highly usually because receiving weight as a result so softly softly is the key lol

Edited February 9, 2022 by richard-westwood

[Budgie 65]

14 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Wish Id took jeans maite, didnt do a bet, but looked a decent chance, mind you 15/8 was in it. My Mums name too. 

Also looked at Mykonos St John, no luck before when I backed it, but did clock my eye, my father in laws name, lol. 

 

 

Frank

Racingpost in their comment basically stated elhafei would win I will only listen to time form now soaring star cl4 elhafei C5 nicely spotted Mykonos at John

 

 

Edited February 9, 2022 by Budgie 65

[Bang on]

13 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

RESULTS UPDATE

Very interesting that quite a number of my RPR/Timeform rated horses showed up as @richard-westwoodselections too.  What was even more interesting was when I looked back at the RPR's for a couple of other horses that I was interested in today.  My nap selection was Elhafei in the 5.30 at Southwell. The RP gave the horse a rating of 80 and although Soaring Star had the same rating it was the RPR rating selection.  Checking back I could see that Elhafei was 74 and previously 66.  Soaring Star's previous ratings were 78 & 77 i.e they were higher than Elhafei.  I know that @Trotteronce pointed out how the RP get these ratings but I can't remember what he wrote.  Anyway, it seems to me in hindsight that Soaring Star was the most consistent horse and that I was wrong to choose Elhafei.  What was more striking was the 8.00 at Southwell.  Ubahha was rated as 72 and 10 points clear of Won Love on 62.  When I looked back at the RPR's,  Ubahha previous two RPR's were 52 twice.  Its best RPR on the All Weather was 69.  It had been running very disappointingly and how its RPR got to a lofty 72 is beyond me.  Whilst, of course Richard's ratings are based upon a different method(s) to Timeform and RPR I will certainly be looking back at the RPR's that have been achieved in the past rather than just accepting the new rating that has popped up from the Racing Post.  What may be beneficial to @richard-westwoodand @Wildgardenis that no matter how glowing the today's rating that they have for a runner if that horse has not been running well and is inconsistent then just leave it out of today's betting.  Of course they maybe they may be doing this already in which case the suggestion is not relevant.

I would have backed Schalke at 6/1 but not 9/2 which was the best price I could get this morning.  It is still early days for me with regard to this type of bet so whether I would back all four or just the horses that look to be best is something that I am still considering 

No great loss today, just 2.50 points which leaves me on -27.98 MTD and -101.00 YTD

 

I'm sure I've pointed out the RP Ratings before. The TOP rated are running at 29% even with almost half of them being FAV's (Just blindly backing favourites would be doing better). In the Racing Post daily NAPS table they are already showing -25pts. 

A loss of over 100pts begs the question, what size bank do you use ?