Racing Chat - Sunday 7th February

[The Brigadier]

If the forecast I’m seeing is correct it looks like we’re likely to lose the Musselburgh card tomorrow.

Which will be a real shame as there’s some excellent fare there.  I’m liking Historic Heart (1.55) and The Golden Rebel (2.25) at the Scottish track but to be honest with it in doubt I’ld rather not waste mine or your time previewing the meeting so it’s off to Ireland again for Day 2 of the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown

I think we saw some champions on Saturday with the likes of Chacun Pour Soi, Honeysuckle, Energumene and especially Kilcruit all of whom must feature heavily at the Cheltenham Festival come March. There is the possibility of further high class performances on Sunday so here’s my thoughts.

 

1.10

The first of three maximum field handicaps where we need to shop around for the additional places that many firms are paying on these (Skybet are 7 places 1/5th odds on this race). The first place to start after Saturdays racing has to be with Willie Mullins who saddles six runners in this mares only handicap hurdle. Stable jockey Paul Townend has plumped for Dysart Diamond and this improving six year old looks the one to me. He’s been shunted up 11lb for his win here on Boxing Day when tongue tied for the first time, been merely pushed out on the run in. The extra 1/4 mile should be in her favour. There’s plenty of dangers including Mullin’s Lady Breffni, a 1/8 Punchestown winner three weeks ago. But I’ll keep it simple and stick with Mullins and Townend.

 

DYSART DIAMOND 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th odds 6 places

 

1.40

Quilixios is the favourite here on the back of three emphatic hurdle wins, on debut in France for Francois Nicolle and twice in October for current handler Gordon Elliott. He’s not been seen for 99 days and at the short odds maybe worth taking on here. Youmdor  would have won but for falling at the final flight at Fairyhouse three weeks ago and will wear a first time hood today. He had previously sauntered up at Gowran Park and is undoubtably a smart gelding. And guess what? It’s Mullins and Townend again.

 

YOUMDOR 2 points win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

2.10

An excellent renewal of the Chantelle Pharma Novice Hurdle with a skinny favourite in Appreciate It (Mullins and Townend again!). He’s been supported all day Saturday into as short as 8/13 from 4/5 although you would think that the bookmakers have plenty of weekend accumulators running up from the short priced winners on Saturday hence the price cut. On form he’s going to be hard to beat but the race has a good each way feel to it so I’ll go with Irascible for the De Bromhead and Blackmore combo that struck with Honeysuckle. He’s only lightly raced and ran the favourite here to 9 lengths over course and distance at Christmas time. This will be only his 4th career outing compared to Appreciate It’s 9th (including his two point to points) so I expect him to get closer to the hot pot.

 

IRASCIBLE 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5th odds 3 places Bet365

 

240

Another maximum field handicap, this one at 3 miles. JP McManus took both handicaps on day one and his Damaalisque is the one here having been well supported already. He has to carry a hefty 12lb penalty for his comfortable win at Navan 9 days ago over 2 miles 4 furlongs and I’m hoping that the step up to 3 miles here will unlock some more improvement. As earlier shop around for the best place terms.

 

DAMALISQUE 1 point each way @ 4/1 1/5th odds 6 places Paddy Power

 

310

Monkfish is dropping in trip here but last years Albert Bartlett winner looks another potential superstar  from the Willie Mullins camp having won his last five starts. He’s a top priced 8/11 chance and obviously the most likely winner but from a punting angle I’m happy to back one against him each way (don’t expect any additional places on this one mind!). Andy Dufresne (named after the character in the excellent film Shawshank Redemption) has done little wrong in his career, winning 5 of his 7 career starts including both his chases. He’s stepping up half a mile today and that may suit and he looks overpriced at around 11/1. Mark Walsh rides for Gordon Elliott.

 

ANDY DUFRESNE 1 point each way @ 11/1 Bet365 1/5th odds 3 places

 

340

The Irish Gold Cup is a cracker this year with four of the five  participants having run against each other in the Savills Cup over course and distance at Christmas time. Kemboy came out the best finishing 1 1/2 lengths ahead of stable companion Melon with Delta Work unseating at the 9th and favourite that day Minnelli Indo falling at the 8th. That was an uncharacteristic error from the latter and having looked so impressive in his two previous starts this season at Wexford and Navan I’m happy enough to give him a chance to prove he’s  up to this and a win will put him bang in the picture for Cheltenham in March.

 

MINELLO INDO 2 points win @ 7/4 Bet365

 

410

A 2m 5f handicap chase which looks wide open. It’s 6/1 the field currently.

Minella Times can cap a stellar weekend for trainer Henry De Bromhead and jockey Rachael Blackmore. He ran a stormer in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at this track over 3 furlongs further over Christmas when finishing runner up to Castlebawn West with Farclas 5 1/2 lengths back in third. He’s been raised 4lb for that but can still run well here.

 

MINELLA TIMES 1 point each way @ 8/1 1/5th odds 5 places William Hills

 

440

The final race of an absorbing two days is the mares only bumper with Willie Mullin’s five runners taking on just six rivals! The well backed favourite is Brandy Love who will be ridden by Patrick Mullins. She was a well backed odds on chance on her rules debut (she had already won a maiden point by 8 lengths), sauntering home for a easy 8 length success. But it’s her stable companion Take Tea that I’m interested in. Owned by JP McManus and ridden by top amateur Derek O’Connor she’s just has the one outing when we’ll backed and winning easily at Naas in December from Feddans (who has won since and re-opposes here). She’s well related being a half sister to the smart Quel Esprit.

 

TAKE TEA 2 points win @ 3/1 Paddy Power

 

 

 

 Reply  Reply All  Forward

[Tedthewolf]

Three races in Ireland for me today.

1.10 HEAVEN HELP US is thrown back of hurdles and looks to me to have a cracking e/w shout off current mark  got a  bit of 33's but only 4 places  skybet  are paying 7 place so  also  have a bit in there at 22/1 

2.40 THE JAM MAN looks a solid e/w  bet  at 10/1 with skybet paying 7places. Good performer  at both chase & hurdles races no reason can't be in the mix here.

4.10 I like some of the mullins horses in this e/w with corals bog 5places LIVELOVELAUGH 33/1 & BLAZER 28/1  both have gone well in the race in previous years.

Best of luck to all punters.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Tedthewolf

[calva decoy]

9 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Three races in Ireland for me today.

1.10 HEAVEN HELP US is thrown back of hurdles and looks to me to have a cracking e/w shout off current mark  got a  bit of 33's but only 4 places  skybet  are paying 7 place so  also  have a bit in there at 22/1 

2.40 THE JAM MAN looks a solid e/w  bet  at 10/1 with skybet paying 7places. Good performer  at both chase & hurdles races no reason can't be in the mix here.

4.10 I like some of the mullins horses in this e/w with corals bog 5places LIVELOVELAUGH 33/1 & BLAZER 28/1  both have gone well in the race in previous years.

Best of luck to all punters.

 

I've backed a couple in the races that you've mentioned & thanks for the 7 places heads up .

110 Leop - Felicidad 28/1 sky ( 7 places  )

I always look out for G.Elliotts runners in Irish handicap races .

He won this race last year with Black Tears with Davy Russell doing the stearing , has the top 2 on the card with claimers taking weight off but J.Kennedy is on the tip wearing 1st time tongue tie & fresh from a 119 day break with a win & place from last 4 runs .

240  Leop - Articulum 22/1 sky (7 places ) 

Consistent sort who's been placed in last 3 runs after a few non finishes .

Has had 41 day break & is partnered by K.Brouder who won race last year .

 

410 Leop - 

Farclas

Off You Go 

Prices too short for size of field , will re check nearer the off !

[The Equaliser]

Not much value pricewise in today's graded races at Musselburgh & Southwell today

13.55 Muss.  I am just wondering how long it takes to train a decent flat horse to win a  class 1 listed race over the jumps at the first time of asking?  Wise Glory has been with Paul Nicholls for about thee and half months.  I think that this would be an amazing feat and I will applaud him if he can pull it off.  Personally, I am putting £5.50 on Fiveandtwenty at 9/4 with Bet365 to win the race.  I have also put in a £2 wager on Carlos Felix at 9.2 (um 8.6) just in case the Skelton horse runs better than market expectations.

2.25 Muss.  I should really thank @richard-westwoodfor his rule of thumb view of looking at odds about a horse that has one/two/three etc main rivals when one is looking for say an extra bit in price value where e.g. if there are two main contenders then obtaining a price of 6/4 for one's fancy etc is a good guide to value.  I believe that he feels the bookies have the market sewn up in graded races but I will persevere with them or the time being.  Anyway, the consideration here is of course the favourite Threehundredthufive which has a current best price of 11/10.  Yes, it looks to have a really good chance of winning.  It has to go an extra three furlongs which appears to be the only doubt.  It does have two live contenders in Fantastikas & The Golden Rebel who have both ran very well at three miles.  Taking 11/10 with 3 main contenders does not seem to be great value to me so I have dutched Fantastikas & Golden Rebel for a stake of £7.50.  Didn't quite get it exact but will profit £10.36 if Fantastikas wins and £9.79 if the Golden Rebel wins

Total stakes today are possibly £15.00

May look at Leopardstown graded races a bit later as I'm feeling bored, but I can't seem to get as much info on the Irish races as I do on the UK races.

Good luck to all taking on the bookies today

 

 

 

 

   

[cannotbebeat]

3.55 Musselburgh  Eagle Ridge

4.35 Southwell  Sir Rodneyredblood

Good luck all CNBB.

[The Equaliser]

39 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Not much value pricewise in today's graded races at Musselburgh & Southwell today

13.55 Muss.  I am just wondering how long it takes to train a decent flat horse to win a  class 1 listed race over the jumps at the first time of asking?  Wise Glory has been with Paul Nicholls for about thee and half months.  I think that this would be an amazing feat and I will applaud him if he can pull it off.  Personally, I am putting £5.50 on Fiveandtwenty at 9/4 with Bet365 to win the race.  I have also put in a £2 wager on Carlos Felix at 9.2 (um 8.6) just in case the Skelton horse runs better than market expectations.

2.25 Muss.  I should really thank @richard-westwoodfor his rule of thumb view of looking at odds about a horse that has one/two/three etc main rivals when one is looking for say an extra bit in price value where e.g. if there are two main contenders then obtaining a price of 6/4 for one's fancy etc is a good guide to value.  I believe that he feels the bookies have the market sewn up in graded races but I will persevere with them or the time being.  Anyway, the consideration here is of course the favourite Threehundredthufive which has a current best price of 11/10.  Yes, it looks to have a really good chance of winning.  It has to go an extra three furlongs which appears to be the only doubt.  It does have two live contenders in Fantastikas & The Golden Rebel who have both ran very well at three miles.  Taking 11/10 with 3 main contenders does not seem to be great value to me so I have dutched Fantastikas & Golden Rebel for a stake of £7.50.  Didn't quite get it exact but will profit £10.36 if Fantastikas wins and £9.79 if the Golden Rebel wins

Total stakes today are possibly £15.00

May look at Leopardstown graded races a bit later as I'm feeling bored, but I can't seem to get as much info on the Irish races as I do on the UK races.

Good luck to all taking on the bookies today

 

 

 

 

   

Looked at Leopardstown  Have placed £6 to win at 2.82 on Minella Indo = £10.70 profit if matched and wins (currently trading at 2.78).  Can't find anything else worth betting on

= £21 stakes possible outlay.  Looks like Carlos Felix won't get matched; now trading at 8.00 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:
 

1.10 Leopardstown - 1pt e/w The Getaway Star @ 14/1

1.25 Musselburgh - 1pt e/w Sunny Express @ 10/1

1.35 Southwell - 1pt e/w Essaka @ 25/1

1.55 Musselburgh - 1pt e/w Le Magnifique @ 22/1

2.40 Leopardstown - 1pt e/w Julies Stowaway @ 7/1

2.55 Musselburgh - 2pts win Prince Kayf @ 7/2

[roger2256]

Feb +6

13.10 Leo Global Equity 16/1 Lost

13.25 Mus Lucky Flight 18/1 Lost

13.35 Sou Red Allure 13/2 Lost

Prices as of now b365 

-3

Feb +3 

Edited February 7, 2021 by roger2256
Result

[Villa Chris]

Had Appreciate It to win today and Supreme Novice hurdle at Cheltenham. Think 3/1 is a good bet. He’s fast becoming a bit of a banker for the festival. The competition  looks pretty poor this year, and he’d go close in previous running’s I’d say, so I’ve taken the double bet instead of 8/15 for today and 9/4 for the supreme. 

[azzybear]

Dysart diamond 1.10 should walk this race by rights

[kroni]

skybet

Robinnia @ 18/1 e-w  Leopardstown 13:10

Global Equity @ 10/1 e-w  Leopardstown 13:10

City Island @ 25/1 e-w Leopardstown 14:40

Frontal Assault @ 17/2 e-w Leopardstown 14:40

Youmdor @ 2/1 Leopardstown 13:40

Master Mcshee @ 11/1 e-w Leopardstown 14:10

Delta Work @ 4/1 Leopardstown 15:40

Minella Times @ 13/2 e-w Leopardstown 16:10

 

betfred

Sextant @ 12/1 e-w Musselburgh 15:25

Mount Mews @ 15/2 e-w Musselburgh 14:55

 

bet365

Fantastikas @ 10/3 Musselburgh 14:25

Carlos Felix @ 6/1 Musselburgh 13:55

Andy Dufresne @ 9/1 e-w Leopardstown 15:10

 

betfair

Trainwreck @ 14/1 e-w Leopardstown 16:10

[Wildgarden]

All southwell Betfair exchange

135 red allure 9.2 and blackcurrant 14.5

235 blowing dixie 3.35

335 de bryne horse 5.9  and atrafan 8.6

435 pearl of qatar 3.5  and qaaraat 8.2

[Tedthewolf]

12 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Three races in Ireland for me today.

1.10 HEAVEN HELP US is thrown back of hurdles and looks to me to have a cracking e/w shout off current mark  got a  bit of 33's but only 4 places  skybet  are paying 7 place so  also  have a bit in there at 22/1 

 

Get in baby!

[calva decoy]

4 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Get in baby!

Well done , thought it was gonna get nabbed on the line .

[calva decoy]

50 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Had Appreciate It to win today and Supreme Novice hurdle at Cheltenham. Think 3/1 is a good bet. He’s fast becoming a bit of a banker for the festival. The competition  looks pretty poor this year, and he’d go close in previous running’s I’d say, so I’ve taken the double bet instead of 8/15 for today and 9/4 for the supreme. 

Did you get NRNB ?

Good luck , looks a good thing ?

[Villa Chris]

17 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Did you get NRNB ?

Good luck , looks a good thing ?

No, it’s normal antepost rules . 
 

Cheers 

[Wildgarden]

3 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

All southwell Betfair exchange

135 red allure 9.2 and blackcurrant 14.5 won ?

235 blowing dixie 3.35 won

335 de bryne horse 5.9  and atrafan 8.6 3rd and 4th respectively

435 pearl of qatar 3.5 2nd and qaaraat 8.2 3rd

Results better already.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Wildgarden

[Villa Chris]

Appreciate It won well off a slow pace, but Gordon Elliots Ballyadam caught the eye there. Might be the main threat. I know we have Metier from this side of the pond , but I’m not convinced he’ll be good enough.

[black rabbit]

Born Patriot  2 25 muss    1 pt win  @ 10/1 betfair 

Belfast Banter  3 25 muss  1 pt  win  @ 11/1  betfair 

Goose Man   4 10  leop  1 pt win @  40/1  betfaie 

[Villa Chris]

Those big handicap races I’ve heard time and time again to look beyond the Mullins shorter odds horse and back his outsider. He’s just had a 40/1 winner.

[Villa Chris]

Anyone watching?  Suspicious big odds treble been placed or summat . All big odds yesterday and going off odds on today. Two have come in and the last leg of the treble is the 4.25 at Musselburgh. Someone, or several people have placed a lot of money on the treble. Definitely stinks of something .

[Tedthewolf]

13 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Anyone watching?  Suspicious big odds treble been placed or summat . All big odds yesterday and going off odds on today. Two have come in and the last leg of the treble is the 4.25 at Musselburgh. Someone, or several people have placed a lot of money on the treble. Definitely stinks of something .

https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/bookmakers-on-red-alert-as-first-leg-of-big-priced-treble-wins-at-musselburgh/472222

 

[yossa6133]

9 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Anyone watching?  Suspicious big odds treble been placed or summat . All big odds yesterday and going off odds on today. Two have come in and the last leg of the treble is the 4.25 at Musselburgh. Someone, or several people have placed a lot of money on the treble. Definitely stinks of something .

Imagine being the jockey Alain Cawley in the last leg, some pressure! I'm on the double with the last two as I only saw it late (only 5/2 for me lol)...might back the last one NOT to win on bet 365 save my stake.

[Villa Chris]

2 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Imagine being the jockey Alain Cawley in the last leg, some pressure! I'm on the double with the last two as I only saw it late (only 5/2 for me lol)...might back the last one NOT to win on bet 365 save my stake.

Problem is it’s effected other people’s bets regarding the other horses, so there’s a big problem with that as well. Shortening the favourite and not lengthening the others . Great that the bookies take a hit, but it’s not good for the sport in general as it’s obvious a con job 

[yossa6133]

Yes, part of the bigger issue with prize money. Something has to give.

[MCLARKE]

I assume the trainers must have been part of this and it's so obvious that you would hope some action to be taken against them.

The horse I backed was 3/1, it's now 12/1.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All for the bookies being taken to the cleaners but it doesn't sit well with me when all the commentary is around what a 'great story' this is. As a punter, celebrating horses deliberately getting beaten in races isn't something I'm going to get behind. 

[yossa6133]

Foiled in the lucky last! Might have ran a bit free.

[MCLARKE]

34 minutes ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

All for the bookies being taken to the cleaners but it doesn't sit well with me when all the commentary is around what a 'great story' this is. As a punter, celebrating horses deliberately getting beaten in races isn't something I'm going to get behind. 

I agree, it has a nasty smell about it.

[Trotter]

Must say I was expecting the 3rd horse to be a non runner .......... and all the trebles being paid out as winning doubles

That would have caused a stink !