Racing Chat - Saturday 12th December

[The Brigadier]

Cheltenham Stage their 2^nd day of their Caspian Caviar meeting tomorrow and here’s an early look with my thoughts.

12.05 2m 1f Juvenile Hurdle 

Adagio brings the best hurdling form to the table with his 2^nd to Duffle Coat at the last meeting (Historic Heart held) . He’s won in France on heavy ground so were the ground to really turn it shouldn’t bother David Pipe’s juvenile. Both Elham Valley and Son Of Red won on their debuts and have to carry a 7lb penalty today. Of the three newcomers Dan Skelton’s Shake A Leg looks the best of them – a 83 rated horse on the flat in Ireland and bought for 30k. I’ll stick with the hurdling form of Adagio who looks quite progressive though. 

ADAGIO 2 points win @ 7/4 william hill

 

12.40 2m 4 1/2f Novices Chase 

I can’t look beyond Chantry House (below) most impressive on his chasing debut at Ascot and is held in high regard by the team at Seven Barrows of Nicky Henderson’s. Stablemate Fusil Raffles wouldn’t appreciate any more rain and is stepping up in trip and the biggest danger maybe Paul Nicholl’s Quel Destin but this is all about Chantry House but no bet at the skinny odds. Maybe a bet to win by 8l or more maybe the way to go. 

 

1.15 2m 1/2f Handicap Chase 

Zanza was hit with a 7lb rise for his comfortable win at Newbury on Ladbroke Trophy day but I feel that that race fell apart with both the 2^nd and 3^rd favourites falling early on leaving Zanza with little to beat. There shouldn’t be much between the Paul Nicholl’s pair Magic Saint and Capeland on Ascot form and the fact that Harry Cobden has chosen the latter swings me towards him of the pair. Venetia William’s Ibleo looks the one to back here following a highly encouraging re-appearance when been run down late at Ascot by Amoola Gold who went on to give the smart First Flow a scare at the next meeting there. That’s good form and Ibleo can defy a 5lb rise especially if the rain arrives. 

IBLEO 2 points win @ 10/3 bet365

 

1.50 2m 4 1/2f Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase 

I’ve previewed this in depth on Monday evening and stand by my selection then of Brian Ellison’s Windsor Avenue who for me has as good a chance as any, though obviously with 17 going to post you’ll certainly need a fair slice of luck as well. Though are numerous dangers though I do think that Benator can run well at big odds and suggest a small ew wager on him as well. He’s been missing 693 days but was smart when we last saw him (he was 3^rd in the 2018 JLT at the Festival) and the handicapper has kindly dropped him 7lb for his absence. Trainer Gary Moore couldn’t be in better form. 

WINDSOR AVENUE 1 point each way @ 10/1 (advised Monday)

BENATOR ½ point each way @ 25/1 1/5 odds 123456

 

2.25 3m Grade 2 Novices Hurdle 

Several of these are stepping up this 3m trip for the first time with Irish traveller Make Good jumping up a whole mile. Pats Fancy, Took The Lot and Wynn House are other moving up in trip. Ashtown Lad was very impressive himself when trying 3m in a handicap 20 days ago and is a major player here but I’m going with the Paul Nicholls trained Danny Kirwan who has always been held in high regard by the Ditcheat team. Maybe this trip will suit as he was an impressive Irish point winner and looked an improved horse when winning at Ascot over 2m 4f last time. 

DANNY KIRWAN  1 point win @ 9-2 Boylesports

 

3.00 2m 1f Unibet International Hurdle 

Any softening of the ground will be massively against Sceau Royal, Silver Streak and Verdana Blue and this does have a sub standard and open look about it. If there is one horse who could blow them all away and stamp his credentials on the Champion Hurdle market it surely is the Gary Moore trained Goshen who was set to be an easy winner of the Triumph Hurdle in March. The only negatives for him is the fact he two subsequent runs on the flat were to say the least disappointing but I’m happy to give him a chance here mainly because I find it hard to get too enthusiastic about the others for one reason or other. 

GOSHEN 1 point win @ 5/2 bet365

 

3.35 2m 4 1/2f Mares Handicap Hurdle 

An open race to conclude the two day fixture. Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle winner Indefatigable heads the weights but she flopped at Kempton last time (maybe more than the trip). If the ground was too soften two of the front ones in the market The White Mouse and handicap debutant Aggy With It may struggle as they are unproven on a soft surface. Down the bottom of the handicap I can see the Warren Gretarex (who’s horses are running better now than earlier in season) trained Printing Dollars running well. She is 7lb out of the handicap but is actually 3lb lower than her good runner up spot in a Class 2 handicap at Ayr’s Scottish National meeting in April 2019. Considering Greatrex’s horses were so out of form I thought she ran well till the last at Ascot on her re-appearance, her first since a wind operation and with that behind her and at a big price she’ll do for me. Maybe the icing on the cake is the fact that owner’s son Sam Waley-Cohen is absent with Brian Hughes taking over and riding at his minimum weight of 10-0 

PRINTING DOLLARS 1 point each way @ 25/1 Paddy Power 1234

 

 

[richard-westwood]

115 chelt 

Magic saint  312

Capeland  310 

These 2 are tough performers and not much between them ...there are other improving types in this race who could spring a surprise but they set a high standard 

Magic saint 4pt win 6.8 betfair 

Capeland 4pts win 8.0 betfair 

[Villa Chris]

I’m going to take an EW punt on Gino Trail at 33/1. Tends to Pull up quite a lot nowadays, but was the same in his early years. The horses record when he makes it the whole way round is superb, and this course will hold no fears for him. Pulled up last time which was first run back after a break , so that may have blown a few cobwebs away.  Runs off a very good mark and if he manages to stay the whole race will surely go close. It’s all or nothing with him, and I’ll risk it at those odds. 

[Tedthewolf]

Tough  racing tomorrow  no really strong bets for me but will play in three races. I will start off in the last at Donny.

3.15 Don- How SINGLEFARMPAYMENT has not won more races ill never no but  is very hard to win with so  is a tentative  e/w play at 13/2  1/5 3 places BOG. Tough race but fair e/w price some bookies going 4 places that may be the way to go.

1.15 Chel- NIETZSCH 12/1  e/w 1/5 3places  BOG ia another tentative bet in  a very tough race to call but   price is good  for this decent hurdler who is shaping up well over the bigger obsticles  did well at this track over the smaller fences and i do like the jockey thats is booked.

1,50  Chel- The big handicap of the day  and boy is it another tough  won  going to play 3 e/w main one being Irish raider CHATAM STREET LAD around 14/1 to 16/1  some paying 6 place  but i will wait to sat morn to get bog 6 places  . I  think this horse will be a good chaser  won dong hand stands at Cork lto loads more in the tank decent price decent chance i think. BENATAR i got 25's 6places  not bog  earlier thats gone 18's now  best  may drift in the morn. This yard can get them fit for first run  back on a very good mark  seem to be plenty of dosh around for it. My other one is 40/1 shot and rank outsider MILITARAIN  not a no hoper in my eyes  ran a good 3rd lto drops back in trip  here  the experts seem to think it won't suit hence the price but  has won over shorter i am willing to take a chance  and play small stakes e/w at the big odds.

Good Luck

 

 

Edited December 11, 2020 by Tedthewolf

[Wildgarden]

745 Wolverhampton ivareflection Betfair sp win and place (think odds may be better than 33-1 offered atm)

815 Wolverhampton heer we go again win place 17-2 willhill

Edited December 11, 2020 by Wildgarden

[Tedthewolf]

42 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

I’m going to take an EW punt on Gino Trail at 33/1. Tends to Pull up quite a lot nowadays, but was the same in his early years. The horses record when he makes it the whole way round is superb, and this course will hold no fears for him. Pulled up last time which was first run back after a break , so that may have blown a few cobwebs away.  Runs off a very good mark and if he manages to stay the whole race will surely go close. It’s all or nothing with him, and I’ll risk it at those odds. 

Looked at that one chris  backed it in the past loves to run from the front but age and the quirky jumping put me off  and has already won a race this year ended up with the  one  of the Brian Ellison runners Nietzsche but  gonna  have to have a few shillings on it now  because you have put it up i'm sure he will do you proud!  Good luck

Edited December 11, 2020 by Tedthewolf

[Villa Chris]

47 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

Looked at that one chris  backed it in the past loves to run from the front but age and the quirky jumping put me off  and has already won a race this year ended up with the  one  of the Brian Ellison runners Nietzsche but  gonna  have to have a few shillings on it now  because you have put it up i'm sure he will do you proud!  Good luck

Think I had him last year when he won after dropping to a dangerous mark. Runs from the front like you said, and ran them ragged the old boy did. 13 now, so not got many more opportunities. Would not surprise me one bit if he wins tomorrow. Only having a small ew on him, mind. 

[MCLARKE]

Nicky Henderson has 2 runners in the 3.00 at Cheltenham tomorrow. I will go with VERDANA BLUE at 16/1 as this also fits a number of my other strategies.

[Villa Chris]

7 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Nicky Henderson has 2 runners in the 3.00 at Cheltenham tomorrow. I will go with VERDANA BLUE at 16/1 as this also fits a number of my other strategies.

He has one at Hereford which I like the look of . Fugitives Drift( runs at 2.32)

[Wildgarden]

430 Newcastle firmament 6-1 Ew betvictor

Handy 4th course in June down 1f from that effort back and not far off in most recent accounts.

[Villa Chris]

Decided to not bother with the ultra competitive races at Cheltenham, but look forward to watching them. 
 

1.15 Cheltenham, Gino Trail 33/1 ew

1.22 Hereford , Still Believing 17/2

2.32 Hereford , Fugitives Drift 15/8

3.15 Doncaster , Give Me A Copper 15/2

[calva decoy]

Wolves Trio 

415 PINK JAZZ 11/2 ew bet365 ( nb ). 1st 13/2

Trainer S.Curran 5/15 last saddled , horse previous CD winner has 1st time blinkers & tongue tie , T.Greatrex taking 3Lb off , good chance of place as is finding 1 or 2 better.

515 ARTISTIC STREAK 28/1 ew sky bet ( long shot ) 3rd 50/1

Is a previous distance winner , won time before last , E.McCain claiming the 7Lb in form of late , Dan Skelton has one entered , he can't have sent many to Wolves on a Saturday night in December before , worth noting !

615 QUIET PLACE 4/1 sky bet 

There's only Dundalk for Irish trainer J.W.Davison to send his horses to so on the back of 1 placed effort & two 4ths sends one across the seas to Wolves in this class 5 novice race.

Decent end to the day albeit the Irish raider was disappointing .

 

 

 

 

Edited December 12, 2020 by calva decoy
Results update

[The Brigadier]

9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Nicky Henderson has 2 runners in the 3.00 at Cheltenham tomorrow. I will go with VERDANA BLUE at 16/1 as this also fits a number of my other strategies.

good luck Michael, Nico seemed a bit cautious on RacingTV yesterday but we'll see ?

[alancraik]

todays selections


DONCASTER 12:55 Wild Max 11/8 win

CHELTENHAM 13:15 Zanza 5/1 e/w 3 Places

CHELTENHAM 15:00 Song For Someone 5/1 e/w 3 Places

DONCASTER 15:15 Give Me A Copper 13/2 e/w 4 Places

plus e/w yankee

[Wildgarden]

255 Newcastle daawy 20.0 and sweet dime 15.5 wins.

Only just behind the favourite lto... up in class but could improve to do one better.

[Wildgarden]

51 minutes ago, The Brigadier said:

good luck Michael, Nico seemed a bit cautious on RacingTV yesterday but we'll see ?

Being backed in from looks of it so value there as it stands.

[The Equaliser]

Just one win bet so far today

12.05 Chelt Adagio £7.10 win at 11/8 with Bet365 = poss return of £16.86

This one appears to be best out of Chantry House (too short a price) 12.40, Ashtown Lad 2.25 (nothing wrong but has strong competition), Goshen 3.00 (ran badly on the flat, though we all want it to win for Jamie Moore), Ofalltheginjoints 2.05 Don (Up in class) and Kapga De Lily 1.22 Her (up 9lbs)

Will see how Adagio goes; if it loses I may have a bet on Ashtown Lad.  Will keep you posted.

 

 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

12.20 Doncaster - 3pts win Defi Sacre @ 4/1

Very consistent type who was well in contention when coming to grief last time and also ran well on seasonal reappearance. The form of his two efforts that rounded off last season read very well now to suggest this mark isn't beyond him and I think he wins this with a clear round.

1.15 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Born Survivor @ 14/1

I thought a few of these were potentially handicapped to the hilt and Born Survivor has had excuses on quite a lot of his chasing starts - bled from the nose last time out, has run after absences a couple of times and a lot of his novice runs have come in top company. I think two miles might be his best trip in competitive races and looks quite a handy price considering he ran as well as could be expected in the circumstances here last time. 

1.50 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Coole Cody @ 11/1

Usually when I get a win out of a horse I'll look elsewhere the next time but I do think Coole Cody will run well again. Was an almighty performance last time considering he slipped early on and went such a good gallop. Looked vulnerable but pulled away again at the finish and a 6lb rise doesn't look insurmountable. He's straightforward, jumps well and stays this trip all day so I think he's got a good each way chance again off a nice riding weight.

3.00 Cheltenham - 1pt e/w Stormy Ireland @ 20/1

This looks wide open with Goshen the potential superstar but he hasn't been brilliant in two flat runs since the Cheltenham festival so will go for one at a big price. Stormy Ireland is at her best when cracking on with it over two miles over hurdles I think and has beaten some nice types quite easily in the past. Stays this trip well and can just crack on from the front I suspect. Ran okay over fences the last twice but can be quite careful at her fences which cost her the race at Bangor despite rallying well up the run-in and I think back to hurdles she could go well for a very long way at a big price.

3.15 Doncaster - 2pts win Singlefarmpayment @ 5/1

Travelled like a dream on seasonal reappearance at Sandown and whilst isn't the easiest to win with, should strip fitter now and is just edging down the weights. Made an error at 2 out and faded thereafter but he's clearly in good heart and if the cards drop right I think he can land this.

[Tedthewolf]

Have picked a couple of well handicaped horses running at Wolves tonight. They both seemed to be drifting in the betting but i do fancy them both e/w.

7.15-EL HOMBRE 9/1 e/w  4 places bog

8.16- PADDY POWER  17/2 e/w 3 places bog

Plus an e/w double

[roger2256]

Dec +26

Few extras for me 

13.15 Chelt Born Survivor  14/1 Lost

13.50 Chelt Champagne Mystery 18/1 Lost

*15.22 Fair Presentingnewyork 10/1 Lost 

17.00 New Debawtry 28/1 NR

All prices as of now b365 

*against an odds on fav 

-3

Dec +23 

 

Edited December 12, 2020 by roger2256
Result

[MCLARKE]

4 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

He has one at Hereford which I like the look of . Fugitives Drift( runs at 2.32)

Only negative to me is the high weight.

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, The Brigadier said:

11 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Nicky Henderson has 2 runners in the 3.00 at Cheltenham tomorrow. I will go with VERDANA BLUE at 16/1 as this also fits a number of my other strategies.

good luck Michael, Nico seemed a bit cautious on RacingTV yesterday but we'll see

Now in to 10/1 so some support.

[skylark2009]

12.40 Cheltenham

Chantry House 5pt win @ 4/7 B365
Chantry House/Lieutenant Rocco 1pt twist F/c B365

Difficult to see past Chantry House here, some stamina/distance issues (imo) with the next two in the betting could see Lieutenant Rocco follow Chantry House home.

1.15 Cheltenham

A dutch on the first two (total 5pts) here with a ½pt E/w on Born Survivor.

Ibleo 2.63pts @ 7/2 B365
Sky Pirate 2.37pts @ 4/1 B365
Born Survivor ½pt E/w @ 14/1 B365

3.00 Cheltenham

An E/w dutch on Ballyandy and Song For Someone here (total 5pts). Both have decent form on soft and have had a recent race, so should both strip fitter here. Goshen's lack of a recent NH race and his two recent disappointing flat races, may mean he needs the run here.

Ballyandy 0.86pts E/w @ 16/1 B365
Song For Someone 1.64pts E/w @ 11/2 B365

Total 18pts bet.

[kroni]

some e-w shot today bet365

Gino Trail @ 33/1 Cheltenham 13:15

Nietzsche @ 10/1 Cheltenham 13:15

Saint Sonnet @ 12/1 Cheltenham 13:50

Midnight Shadow @ 11/1 Cheltenham 13:50

Took The Lot @ 17/2 Cheltenham 14:25

Chtibello @ 9/1 Cheltenham 15:00

Silver Streak @ 17/2 Cheltenham 15:00

[Tedthewolf]

17 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

 

1,50  Chel- The big handicap of the day  and boy is it another tough  won  going to play 3 e/w main one being Irish raider CHATAM STREET LAD around 14/1 to 16/1  some paying 6 place  but i will wait to sat morn to get bog 6 places  . I  think this horse will be a good chaser  won dong hand stands at Cork lto loads more in the tank decent price decent chance i think. BENATAR i got 25's 6places  not bog  earlier thats gone 18's now  best  may drift in the morn. This yard can get them fit for first run  back on a very good mark  seem to be plenty of dosh around for it. My other one is 40/1 shot and rank outsider MILITARAIN  not a no hoper in my eyes  ran a good 3rd lto drops back in trip  here  the experts seem to think it won't suit hence the price but  has won over shorter i am willing to take a chance  and play small stakes e/w at the big odds.

 

 

!st & 3rd.

[calva decoy]

17 hours ago, Tedthewolf said:

Tough  racing tomorrow  no really strong bets for me but will play in three races. I will start off in the last at Donny.

3.15 Don- How SINGLEFARMPAYMENT has not won more races ill never no but  is very hard to win with so  is a tentative  e/w play at 13/2  1/5 3 places BOG. Tough race but fair e/w price some bookies going 4 places that may be the way to go.

1.15 Chel- NIETZSCH 12/1  e/w 1/5 3places  BOG ia another tentative bet in  a very tough race to call but   price is good  for this decent hurdler who is shaping up well over the bigger obsticles  did well at this track over the smaller fences and i do like the jockey thats is booked.

1,50  Chel- The big handicap of the day  and boy is it another tough  won  going to play 3 e/w main one being Irish raider CHATAM STREET LAD around 14/1 to 16/1  some paying 6 place  but i will wait to sat morn to get bog 6 places  . I  think this horse will be a good chaser  won dong hand stands at Cork lto loads more in the tank decent price decent chance i think. BENATAR i got 25's 6places  not bog  earlier thats gone 18's now  best  may drift in the morn. This yard can get them fit for first run  back on a very good mark  seem to be plenty of dosh around for it. My other one is 40/1 shot and rank outsider MILITARAIN  not a no hoper in my eyes  ran a good 3rd lto drops back in trip  here  the experts seem to think it won't suit hence the price but  has won over shorter i am willing to take a chance  and play small stakes e/w at the big odds.

Good Luck

 

 

Nice one Ted ( sounds like the Fast Show ? ) thought you'd have had a tickle on that one ? 

You done Make Good in the 2.25 ?

Was 7/1 ew sky bet this morning .

Edited December 12, 2020 by calva decoy

[richard-westwood]

20 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

!st & 3rd.

Well done ted 

[Tedthewolf]

24 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Nice one Ted ( sounds like the Fast Show ? ) thought you'd have had a tickle on that one ? 

You done Make Good in the 2.25 ?

Was 7/1 ew sky bet this morning .

no not backed it

 

[Tedthewolf]

8 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

no not backed it

Hope you backed it 12/1 winner

 

 

Edited December 12, 2020 by Tedthewolf

[calva decoy]

18 minutes ago, Tedthewolf said:

no not backed it

 

Glad I did , drifted to 12's a bonus , 1 Irish trained at Wolves tonight & S.Crawford has a few at Carlisle tomorrow ?  

Just checked account & because it's a cash back if horse comes 2nd race you get price as taken so only 7's which I shouldn't snivel about really , but .......

Edited December 12, 2020 by calva decoy
Updated results