Striker Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Morning All The International Jockeys Challenge takes place today in Hong Kong at Happy Valley Should be a fascinating watch [Races 4,5, 7 & 8] I think two of the European riders have drawn decent horses so will play them both in the Top Jockey market Ryan Moore @ 5-1 William Hill Pierre-Charles Boudot @ 11-2 Paddy Power 1pt on each Wildgarden and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1215 Lingfield I'm available 4.3 and buckingham 5.2 Betfair exchange win. Can't see any past these strong contenders Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Brigadier Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 33 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 1215 Lingfield I'm available 4.3 and buckingham 5.2 Betfair exchange win. Can't see any past these strong contenders certainly agree with Buckingham, thought he was very unlucky last time. Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 All prices Bet365: 11.45 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Nebuchadnezzar @ 12/1 A few of these have to prove their stamina here and I think Nebucadnezzar can go well back on the flat having been running quite well over hurdles of late. Was in decent form in nice enough races when last seen on the level and this mark looks fair so quite like him at the price. 12.55 Hexham - 1pt e/w Crank Em Up @ 14/1 Shaped well over four miles last time and I think you're going to need plenty of excess stamina at this track on heavy ground today. Should strip fitter now, he's off a good mark and looks a big price for a horse who's a guaranteed stayer and appears in decent form. 2.15 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Pilot Wings @ 16/1 All of this one's best form has come on the all-weather so this is a welcome return to the artificial surface and has dropped down to a fair mark again with the rider taking off a further 7lbs. Ran well here three starts ago and looks a big price returning down the weights today. 2.25 Hexham - 1pt e/w Final Fling @ 8/1 Another one with excess stamina here who likely found good ground too sharp for him at Newcastle when last seen. Is down the weights as a result and this test really ought to suit today so I think we'll see him go close now. 2.45 Lingfield - 1pt e/w Libretta @ 9/1 Ran well last time when not having the clearest of passages but keeping on for third and that was its second run back from a long absence. Remains lightly raced so more to come and this is an easier contest too so quite a lot to like this afternoon. Wildgarden and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alancraik Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 todays selections LINGFIELD 12:15 Lucky Louie 20/1 e/w 3 Places HEXHAM 12:25 Bushypark 2/7 win LINGFIELD 13:15 Stay Classy 7/2 win plus e/w trixie Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1215 ling Delicate kiss 255 Buckingham 253 Corazon espinado 250 Top 2 here have bern posting good times over 1mile ...corazon looks well treated currently but I think needs 7f rather than 8 ...just doesnt seem to last home Delicate kiss 4pt win 11/2 bet365 Buckingham 4pt win 9/2 sky 115 ling Dancing feet 250 Queens course 245 Stay classy 243 Dancing feet is surely capable if winning a race like this and top rated today so looks time to play Dancing feet 4pts win 9/4 bet365 Wildgarden, Fellcrawler and Villa Chris 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Cagnes 1.07.Ole Caballero 1 42 Kazoo No time for write ups but very interesting that Josef Vana Jr Son of the legendary Velka Pardubice winner as trainer and jockey brings 3 from Czech Republic to South of France today on a weak looking card with few of the top yards or jockeys present. His first mount was impeded twiceby falling horses in the later stages. Difficult to tell if it was fit enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roger2256 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 (edited) Dec +30 Few extras for me 1pt level stakes win only *12.25 Hex Romeo Brown 11/1 Lost *12.25 Hex Article Fifty 28/1 Lost 15.15 Lin Black Medick 5/1 Won Prices as of now all b365 * Against an odds on fav +3 Dec +33 Edited December 9, 2020 by roger2256 Result Wildgarden and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, The Brigadier said: certainly agree with Buckingham, thought he was very unlucky last time. Drifted out a little 6.6 now some value there win and place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 1215 ling Delicate kiss 255 Buckingham 253 Corazon espinado 250 Top 2 here have bern posting good times over 1mile ...corazon looks well treated currently but I think needs 7f rather than 8 ...just doesnt seem to last home Delicate kiss 4pt win 11/2 bet365 Buckingham 4pt win 9/2 sky 115 ling Dancing feet 250 Queens course 245 Stay classy 243 Dancing feet is surely capable if winning a race like this and top rated today so looks time to play Dancing feet 4pts win 9/4 bet365 1st 3rd 3rd ...14pts profit on the day The Equaliser, MCLARKE, Wildgarden and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Not a lot going on today so I've had a quick look at the 2.55 handicap chase at Hexham. I've analysed similar races in November and the 2 key trends are :- Forecast odds < 11/2. AE = 1.10. Sex = Female. AE = 1.32. This leaves SOUTHEAST ROSE at 7/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 hours ago, harrisman said: Cagnes 1.07.Ole Caballero 1 42 Kazoo No time for write ups but very interesting that Josef Vana Jr Son of the legendary Velka Pardubice winner as trainer and jockey brings 3 from Czech Republic to South of France today on a weak looking card with few of the top yards or jockeys present. His first mount was impeded twiceby falling horses in the later stages. Difficult to tell if it was fit enough. All poor- obviously a little holiday by the sea disguised as a business trip!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 4 hours ago, richard-westwood said: 1215 ling Delicate kiss 255 Buckingham 253 Corazon espinado 250 Top 2 here have bern posting good times over 1mile ...corazon looks well treated currently but I think needs 7f rather than 8 ...just doesnt seem to last home Delicate kiss 4pt win 11/2 bet365 Buckingham 4pt win 9/2 sky 115 ling Dancing feet 250 Queens course 245 Stay classy 243 Dancing feet is surely capable if winning a race like this and top rated today so looks time to play Dancing feet 4pts win 9/4 bet365 Pretty spot on with the ratings, rich. richard-westwood 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 5 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 1215 Lingfield I'm available 4.3 and buckingham 5.2 Betfair exchange win. Can't see any past these strong contenders Buckingham place only looked close home drifting out. Decided place cover so money back in the end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, Villa Chris said: Pretty spot on with the ratings, rich. Yeah they've been pretty accurate of late ....its nice to see ....I like the winners of course but i like it better when the ratings are very accurate especially in the big races ....it helps people make an informed choice whatever they decide and if it helps make someone a few quid like they have done many times then i cant ask for more ...so I'll keep putting them out there and trying to make as accurate as possible ....this is the way ?? Villa Chris, kroni and Zico10 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 655 kempton horn of plenty 6.6 and Gabriel the one 11.5 win only Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 minute ago, richard-westwood said: Yeah they've been pretty accurate of late ....its nice to see ....I like the winners of course but i like it better when the ratings are very accurate especially in the big races ....it helps people make an informed choice whatever they decide and if it helps make someone a few quid like they have done many times then i cant ask for more ...so I'll keep putting them out there and trying to make as accurate as possible ....this is the way ?? You’re doing well lately and I’ve always found your ratings very good anyway. You had top 3 correct in the one race but in a different order. Do you try to improve your ratings, Or are you can completely happy with how they are? Also how long has it taken you to get where you are now with your ratings? LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Villa Chris said: You’re doing well lately and I’ve always found your ratings very good anyway. You had top 3 correct in the one race but in a different order. Do you try to improve your ratings, Or are you can completely happy with how they are? Also how long has it taken you to get where you are now with your ratings? I've evolved constantly over the past 10 11 years ......when I first came onto this site about 10 years ago I was doing speed ratings and I think my first post was speed ratings for the 1000 guineas where I tipped blue bunting at 66/1 top rated and he duly won ...winning me 670 in the process.which was pretty special ...I probably spent the next couple years having a fair bit of success with the speed ratings but I realised after a while that there are many factors involved with what makes a horse win on the day .....weight ...distance....conditions ....jockey ...course ..class ..I was watching a documentary on the weather one day and they said they improved the computers weather accuracy from 18% to over 60 % by running 30 or 40 slightly differing scenarios and going with the most likely outcome that the computer predicted overall ....I remember thinking what if I applied that to racing ....so every single day I picked races and for about 12 monthes I taught myself why certain horses won and why horses lost when they were meant to win .....I learnt how to hcap horses ....how to rate class .....I could already speed rate ....so I came up with a spreadsheet that could rate it all ......it worked really well so then I made another that would give preference to class in one rating.....would give weight preference in another.....speed in another and so on .....eventually after about 20 diff spreadsheets or programs and I'm talking hundreds of hours of programming i taught it to basically look at the big picture and take it's best guess at what the horse could should do today based on everything ....and that's just what it does ....its as accurate now as it's ever been so I dont mess with it much but I do sometimes alter variables or maths and run the new thing alongside the old to see if it improves profit etc ........I have to constantly watch things though ....I started getting a run of bad results about 12 months ago and after investigating I realised that an error had occurred in the complicated maths .....was literally a bug that the program had created which inserted a single division sign in the 30 line code and then auto saved it so I have to periodically check the code now and even reload an original copy to make sure these bugs dont occur .....I bet solely for fun ....but the ratings have paid for a couple of holidays over the years and given me so much fun and excitement so I feel all the hard work has been paid off in full and I just trust them now blindly .....I wait to see what the ratings are then just look for the best value .....but I'm always open to new ideas or posibiltys ...sometimes ill see something or an idea will pop into my head and ill try it to see if it works .....in the last 12 monthes I altered the class rating and it seems to have made the ratings more accurate so I left it in ....constantly evolving lol I had this book years ago which had a formula you could do on a calculator ....it was about 7 or 9 stage formula .....I lost the book and couldn't remember the title .....if I could see it again I might try that because it was pretty good at picking winners ....if anyone knows what it is I'd love to know lol Edited December 9, 2020 by richard-westwood vikki37, LEE-GRAYS, yossa6133 and 7 others 8 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: I've evolved constantly over the past 10 11 years ......when I first came onto this site about 10 years ago I was doing speed ratings and I think my first post was speed ratings for the 1000 guineas where I tipped blue bunting at 66/1 top rated and he duly won ...winning me 670 in the process.which was pretty special ...I probably spent the next couple years having a fair bit of success with the speed ratings but I realised after a while that there are many factors involved with what makes a horse win on the day .....weight ...distance....conditions ....jockey ...course ..class ..I was watching a documentary on the weather one day and they said they improved the computers weather accuracy from 18% to over 60 % by running 30 or 40 slightly differing scenarios and going with the most likely outcome that the computer predicted overall ....I remember thinking what if I applied that to racing ....so every single day I picked races and for about 12 monthes I taught myself why certain horses won and why horses lost when they were meant to win .....I learnt how to hcap horses ....how to rate class .....I could already speed rate ....so I came up with a spreadsheet that could rate it all ......it worked really well so then I made another that would give preference to class in one rating.....would give weight preference in another.....speed in another and so on .....eventually after about 20 diff spreadsheets or programs and I'm talking hundreds of hours of programming i taught it to basically look at the big picture and take it's best guess at what the horse could should do today based on everything ....and that's just what it does ....its as accurate now as it's ever been so I dont mess with it much but I do sometimes alter variables or maths and run the new thing alongside the old to see if it improves profit etc ........I have to constantly watch things though ....I started getting a run of bad results about 12 months ago and after investigating I realised that an error had occurred in the complicated maths .....was literally a bug that the program had created which inserted a single division sign in the 30 line code and then auto saved it so I have to periodically check the code now and even reload an original copy to make sure these bugs dont occur .....I bet solely for fun ....but the ratings have paid for a couple of holidays over the years and given me so much fun and excitement so I feel all the hard work has been paid off in full and I just trust them now blindly .....I wait to see what the ratings are then just look for the best value .....but I'm always open to new ideas or posibiltys ...sometimes ill see something or an idea will pop into my head and ill try it to see if it works .....in the last 12 monthes I altered the class rating and it seems to have made the ratings more accurate so I left it in ....constantly evolving lol Great stuff. Thanks for the insight into your ratings and how you eventually got there. richard-westwood and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 725 kempton monjeni win 32 place 9 Betfair exchange Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Wildgarden said: 655 kempton horn of plenty 6.6 and Gabriel the one 11.5 win only Unplaced few misses today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 28 minutes ago, Wildgarden said: 725 kempton monjeni win 32 place 9 Betfair exchange Didn't do much better looked to come on near end for 4th Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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