Racing Chat Monday 30 November

[The Equaliser]

Just starting this thread off today as I can't see the topic listed.

Looks like I will need a 100/1 winner to win the Naps comp today.  As reported previously i will be focussing on the most number of winners next month, albeit I will still resort to big priced selections at the tail end of the month should I not be doing too well with the short priced selections

 

[calva decoy]

12 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Just starting this thread off today as I can't see the topic listed.

Looks like I will need a 100/1 winner to win the Naps comp today.  As reported previously i will be focussing on the most number of winners next month, albeit I will still resort to big priced selections at the tail end of the month should I not be doing too well with the short priced selections

 

Ah , the tactical approach.

I'm currently 24th so went for a 4/1 shot to hopefully consolidate my position.

 

3.20 Fakenham - Glimpse Of Gold 6/1 betfair ( 2 places )

Always look out for S.Humphrey horses here at Fakenham, booking of B.Frost also caught the eye.

[Trotter]

For the first time in 12 or 13 years I've not been posting much in the Nap of the Day comp for the last 2 months

Not sure if I'm 'taking a break' or giving up

I've won it numerous times, finished top of the Annual Table 3 times in the last 10 years, .......... I think I've done my bit !

I'll see how it goes.

 

[The Equaliser]

3 minutes ago, Trotter said:

For the first time in 12 or 13 years I've not been posting much in the Nap of the Day comp for the last 2 months

Not sure if I'm 'taking a break' or giving up

I've won it numerous times, finished top of the Annual Table 3 times in the last 10 years, .......... I think I've done my bit !

I'll see how it goes.

 

Well, I hope you rediscover your mojo.  In any case your posts are always worth a read

[alancraik]

todays selections

FAKENHAM 12:45 Dash Of Blue 9/4 win

FAKENHAM 13:15 Thomas Todd 9/4 win

FAKENHAM 14:20 The Happy Chappy 6/1 3 Places

plus e/w trixie

[The Equaliser]

52 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Ah , the tactical approach.

I'm currently 24th so went for a 4/1 shot to hopefully consolidate my position.

 

3.20 Fakenham - Glimpse Of Gold 6/1 betfair ( 2 places )

Always look out for S.Humphrey horses here at Fakenham, booking of B.Frost also caught the eye.

Well, I like to try and win the comp.  I am hoping that concentrating on most winners from next month may help me at least get into the KO cup.

Glimpse of Gold did catch my eye too.  I may even have a small bet on it.  My top rated is Gold Fields.  It is up 12lbs and disappointed  a bit last time.  It is also 2nd in the betting market so it will not be in my Trixie if I do one today

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

Always look out for S.Humphrey horses here at Fakenham, booking of B.Frost also caught the eye.

Hope you are right. I am also going for one of these but for a different reason, The Happy Chappy in the 2.20.

I do like horses that won the last race by a wide margin, in this case 33 lengths, albeit in a 3 runner race.

[MCLARKE]

On the same basis I am backing EPSOM DES MOTTES in the 2.40 at Ayr. This won it's last race by 17 lengths.

Currently best priced at 4/1 but if you bet with Unibet you can get a boosted price of 9/2 which is excellent value.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

12.45 Fakenham - 1pt e/w Bertie Blake @ 12/1

Has eased back down the weights after a purple patch last season and is off a decent mark now with his jockey taking 7lbs off. Was pulled up at Hexham last time but races there were extremely gruelling and most horses were stopping to nothing so I'm not too concerned about that. Shaped okay on seasonal reappearance whilst needing the run and now should be spot on with conditions to suit. 

2.20 Fakenham - 1pt e/w Achill Road Boy @ 8/1

Looks a big price for a horse who had a race won over c&d off a higher mark in the past before falling at the last and has been in decent form. Stays, is well handicapped and goes well here so surprising to see him at 8/1 here.

2.30 Kempton - 1pt e/w Alambrista @ 12/1

Bred to be very decent with all of its half siblings securing black type and should know more today after its debut. Mark Prescott's wouldn't win first time out all that often so should progress nicely now and I don't think this is a strong contest.

2.40 Ayr - 2pts win Ballydonagh Bay @ 5/1

Favourite won well last time but has gone up the weights as a result and I like Ballydonagh Bay here. Ex pointer who has run well over hurdles but the switch to chasing and the step up in trip both look huge positives and can land this.

3.30 Kempton - 1pt e/w Misu Pete @ 14/1

Has form here, runs off a decent mark and hasn't shaped too badly lately. Went off too hard over a mile last time and although his last win did come over that trip, I think he'll go forward from stall 1 here and should find it easier to maintain a gallop down at 7f here. 

[DanV89]

4.20 Wolves - Choosey - 11/1

Given the trainer/jockey combo I get the feeling this one will either finish 1st or last but does seem primed for a good run today. Choosey won over course and distance in October last year off 65. I watched his run 2 starts back here over 6, he was drawn out in 11 and was 5 wide going into the first bend and ridden hard early on, he duly weakened and finished last beaten 22 lengths. As controversial an opinion as this may be, that run stunk of a trainer trying to get a horses mark down in readiness for a 'trying' run which could be today. Back to 5 furlongs and now off a mark of 57 (8lbs below last winning mark), drawn in 2 and Paul Mulrennan booked. Will be interesting to see if the money comes for him during the day and if it does he could go in.

[League1_punter]

2 hours ago, Trotter said:

For the first time in 12 or 13 years I've not been posting much in the Nap of the Day comp for the last 2 months

Not sure if I'm 'taking a break' or giving up

I've won it numerous times, finished top of the Annual Table 3 times in the last 10 years, .......... I think I've done my bit !

I'll see how it goes.

 

Well I for one hope you continue posting on here, even if you don’t carry on the daily naps.  I always look out for your posts and often follow your selections.....you’ve won me a good few bob along the way!

[Wildgarden]

505 kempton cashel 4.5 Betfair exchange

[The Equaliser]

Held up in my analysis so going for a couple of bets at Kempton:

1.25 My Girl Maggie £1.50 win at 3/1

1.55 River Chorus £3 win at 2/1

One £4 win double = poss return of £48

total stakes = £8.50

Both blown out (typical that the favourites win today but were terrible yesterday

Anyway, 4.35 Km Phoenix Star £4.50 win at 2/1 = poss return of £13.50

This is a well thought out recovery bet.  I cap my total stakes (including recovery bets at £20 per day).  Not sure if I will look for another one if this horse loses.

I will now go in search of my 100/1 + shot for the naps comp now

==============================================================================================

Got saved again by my extra bet.  In effect this led me to break even over the day as I did put 50p on my 125/1 shot.

The mistake I made with my double was to include the top rated (RPR & Timeform) but to ignore the favourite.  In future, my mutliple bets will have to be favourite and ideally be top rated by RPR and Timeform but in order to allow a a little latitude in prices I may be content with either top RPR or Timeform .  I will see how this goes in December.

Multiples = a loss of £4 therefore balance c/fwd £608.04 (Bank £800).  Top rated multiples £4 loss.  Balance = (£15.65)

Singles a profit of £4.50 = a balance c/fwd of £154.68 (Bank £400)

Effectively two over the jumps and two All weather meetings tomorrow.  Heavy going at Lingfield.  Should be interesting

 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[Wildgarden]

750 Wolverhampton Leo davinci 3.3 Betfair exchange

[calva decoy]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Well, I like to try and win the comp.  I am hoping that concentrating on most winners from next month may help me at least get into the KO cup.

Glimpse of Gold did catch my eye too.  I may even have a small bet on it.  My top rated is Gold Fields.  It is up 12lbs and disappointed  a bit last time.  It is also 2nd in the betting market so it will not be in my Trixie if I do one today

Good luck with Gold Fields.

Re the comp , they'll always be some Long Shot Larry's who'll get lucky with some big price winners , you only have to look at picks for today's NAP to see.

[Trotter]

7 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Re the comp , they'll always be some Long Shot Larry's who'll get lucky with some big price winners , you only have to look at picks for today's NAP to see.

In the 'olden days' you had to provide a few sentences of reasoning with your selection which dissuaded people from pin sticking long shots and trusting to luck

personally I think it was a better competition then and you could see why people picked their horses

on the other hand it did put a lot of people off joining in and the numbers playing were lower

 

[Villa Chris]

31 minutes ago, Trotter said:

In the 'olden days' you had to provide a few sentences of reasoning with your selection which dissuaded people from pin sticking long shots and trusting to luck

personally I think it was a better competition then and you could see why people picked their horses

on the other hand it did put a lot of people off joining in and the numbers playing were lower

 

That’s how it should be because people only bang in the big odds purely based on luck. No way in a million years you’re napping a 100/1. I’d have trouble napping a 20/1. A Nap league should be just that. 

[DanV89]

2 hours ago, DanV89 said:

4.20 Wolves - Choosey - 11/1

Given the trainer/jockey combo I get the feeling this one will either finish 1st or last but does seem primed for a good run today. Choosey won over course and distance in October last year off 65. I watched his run 2 starts back here over 6, he was drawn out in 11 and was 5 wide going into the first bend and ridden hard early on, he duly weakened and finished last beaten 22 lengths. As controversial an opinion as this may be, that run stunk of a trainer trying to get a horses mark down in readiness for a 'trying' run which could be today. Back to 5 furlongs and now off a mark of 57 (8lbs below last winning mark), drawn in 2 and Paul Mulrennan booked. Will be interesting to see if the money comes for him during the day and if it does he could go in.

Has drifted out to 16/1 so looks like today probably won't be the day...

[Villa Chris]

Only a spectator today, but I’ve taken an interest in two races at Fakenham which is a tight track. The top weight system where you pick top weight running less than 3 miles on a tight track. It seems profitable going by the numbers I’ve seen. 
 

Thomes Todd was a selection that was eligible and it finished second. Glimpse Of Gold is the other selection in the 3.20, and is a nice price. Ran well lto and has been dropped 2Ibs. Top jockey on board. 

[Villa Chris]

Got pulled up never threatening to get into the race. It’s a good ground horse, so that may have played a part. 

[MCLARKE]

2 hours ago, Trotter said:

In the 'olden days' you had to provide a few sentences of reasoning with your selection which dissuaded people from pin sticking long shots and trusting to luck

personally I think it was a better competition then and you could see why people picked their horses

on the other hand it did put a lot of people off joining in and the numbers playing were lower

Yes, it's difficult to strike a balance, I think if you randomly picked 100/1 shots you would probably win the competition a couple of time a year but if you bet real money on them you would lose a fortune.

Perhaps it might be good to have an annual naps competition, that should be a truer test. Anybody any views on this ?

[Wildgarden]

4 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

505 kempton cashel 4.5 Betfair exchange

Out in price unplaced didn't enjoy this one.

[Wildgarden]

550 Wolverhampton always fearless and Mr Coco bean Betfair sp

 

 

[Wildgarden]

16 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

550 Wolverhampton always fearless and Mr Coco bean Betfair sp

 

 

Place only for fearless

[Wildgarden]

620 Wolverhampton one small step Betfair sp place and win

Above ones system picks this one my video pick. Started badly last race looks like it ran well race before and should do well again now at wolves

[Wildgarden]

17 minutes ago, Wildgarden said:

620 Wolverhampton one small step Betfair sp place and win

Above ones system picks this one my video pick. Started badly last race looks like it ran well race before and should do well again now at wolves

Narrow 2nd for money back after leading to near the end.

[calva decoy]

5 hours ago, Trotter said:

In the 'olden days' you had to provide a few sentences of reasoning with your selection which dissuaded people from pin sticking long shots and trusting to luck

personally I think it was a better competition then and you could see why people picked their horses

on the other hand it did put a lot of people off joining in and the numbers playing were lower

 

I play in Tipster Challenge competition where they do a Nap competition , I've finished 2nd this month with 12 winners & around +£27 LSP where the winner has had 3 winners 1 a 50/1 shot.

I agree about the reasoning for tipping but alas , I think it'd put a lot of people off & be less traffic for the site.

[Wildgarden]

6 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

750 Wolverhampton Leo davinci 3.3 Betfair exchange

Couldn't follow up the win

[The Equaliser]

4 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Yes, it's difficult to strike a balance, I think if you randomly picked 100/1 shots you would probably win the competition a couple of time a year but if you bet real money on them you would lose a fortune.

Perhaps it might be good to have an annual naps competition, that should be a truer test. Anybody any views on this ?

I believe that it was me who initiated the change in the rules to allow a prize for the most winners.  It was supported by a lot of long time members and Graham obliged us with the new prize.  As I pointed out to Graham, before the prize was brought into being that it didn't seem worthwhile to me to put what I truly thought was the best bet of the day because someone would always come along and put up a winning outsider.  This of course is not to say that a long shot is not someone's best bet of the day.  I'm sure that if one looks back over the years one will find a few regular winners of the competition by using such a strategy which kind of justifies the make up of the competition as it is. 

However, I do feel that if one makes adjustments to the prize money then Punters Lounge Tipsters could get the best of both worlds.

At the moment the prize makeup is 1st £60, 2nd £30, 3rd £20 and fourth £10.  The tipster with the most winners and showing at least a £10 profit gets a prize of £20.  The total pot is £140.  if the prize make up was changed to 1st £60, 2nd £20 and 3rd £10 and the fourth prize was dropped then this would allow a prize of £50 to the punter who had the most winners and showed a profit of at least £10.  This may encourage more tipsters to select what they truly believe to be their best bet of the day whilst still handsomely rewarding the outright winner with the most profit as well.  In this way Punters Lounge does not have pay out any more prize money each month.

Just a thought