richard-westwood Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Ayr bronze cup Call me ginger 227 +2 Roundhay park 225 +3 Music society 224 +1 Tricky cavalry charge as youd expect with currently 25 runners but these 3 are a few points clear of next horse so I'll take the tag team and try and get some profit Call me ginger 5pts win 8/1 willh Roundhay park 5pt win 11/1willh Music society 5pt win 11/1 willh 6x1pt forecasts yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 17, 2020 Author Share Posted September 17, 2020 58 minutes ago, richard-westwood said: Ayr bronze cup Call me ginger 227 +2 Roundhay park 225 +3 Music society 224 +1 Tricky cavalry charge as youd expect with currently 25 runners but these 3 are a few points clear of next horse so I'll take the tag team and try and get some profit Call me ginger 5pts win 8/1 willh Roundhay park 5pt win 11/1willh Music society 5pt win 11/1 willh 6x1pt forecasts I'll try for 24x20p triefectas with above 3 and... never in paris .....xmas is coming on horizon so time to shoot for that big win to pay expenses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 Nap: 400 K: Recall The Show 2/1 bet365 Short-priced treble at Catterick 220 Sarsaperilla 4/6 330 Leafhopper 8/11 515 Sudona 11/8 Pays 11/2 at bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted September 17, 2020 Share Posted September 17, 2020 (edited) 4.15 Newbury , Glorious Journey 15/2 won represents decent value I think Edited September 18, 2020 by Villa Chris LeMale and kroni 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 3.55 Ayr Paddy power 50/1 chookie Dunedin 40/1 john Kirkup 12/1 Aleef 50/1 all this lot owe me a few quid let’s hope they remember ?? 25p e/w singles ? vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Just now, LEE-GRAYS said: 3.55 Ayr Paddy power 50/1 chookie Dunedin 40/1 john Kirkup 12/1 Aleef 50/1 all this lot owe me a few quid let’s hope they remember ?? 25p e/w singles ? Bet365 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 Away from Ayr thoughts from this quarter...There is a race in france today (3:40 chantilly) Legal Attack (crisford n crisford) even if this horse wins by 10 lengths its got to be the worst value/price (4/5) i have come across all year i was actually going to post this last night when it was 11/8 My figures don't even put it in 1st 3. yossa6133 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 24 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: Away from Ayr thoughts from this quarter...There is a race in france today (3:40 chantilly) Legal Attack (crisford n crisford) even if this horse wins by 10 lengths its got to be the worst value/price (4/5) i have come across all year i was actually going to post this last night when it was 11/8 My figures don't even put it in 1st 3. I've lumped on your nap Jubilation. Well put 70p win on at 14/1. I suspect that @MCLARKE may have a different view with regard to the odds on Legal Attack. Good luck anyway Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 1.10 Catterick - 1pt win Crown Princess @ 6/1 Bet365 I don't think the favourite is thrown in here and the drop back to a sharp 5f might not be ideal either so is worth taking on. I think Crown Princess could be the one to take advantage - couldn't get involved from off the pace when not having the clearest of passages at Wolverhampton last time but would have a good chance on any of her prominent efforts over 5f including when winning comfortably here. Hopefully will not get as far back today and can burn them off late in the day I hope. 2.30 Newbury - 2pts win Humanitarian @ 4/1 Bet365 Very interesting runner having run well in last year's Derby and if returning in anything like that form would go very close off a mark of 102. Flopped at Ascot subsequently but had excuses that day and returns here still relatively unexposed and for a powerful yard who can ready one after an absence. On any run other than his last effort he'd look well handicapped off this mark so worth chancing at a backable price. 3.40 Newbury - 2pts win Jumby @ 4/1 Bet365 Ran a very good race to win on debut and then didn't have the race to suit last time out - racing keenly off a modest gallop before keeping on without threatening. I thought he was the best horse in the race despite only coming home in 4th and is well worth another chance today. 3.20 Ayr - 1pt e/w Magical Journey @ 7/1 Bet365 I think these conditions will really suit Magical Journey who did well when coming off the pace at Pontefract last time to do best of those held up and I just think the extended 5f with a bit of give in the ground could be the making of him. Has run many sound races to make his handicap mark look fair, and even running to his mark here would see a good run. I think a few extra pounds can be eked out under these conditions and looks a good e/w bet. 3.55 Ayr - 1pt e/w Abstemious @ 14/1 Bet365 Consistent type who has been running well and again these conditions look spot on. Has run respectably over 7f and 6f including on quicker ground but a slower surface and a strong test over 6f looks absolutely perfect for this one and has cheekpieces added for this afternoon. Looks sure to run his race and is a decent price now getting perfect conditions if getting the necessary luck with a clear run and being on the right part of the track. 4.15 Newbury - Kinross @ 4/1 Bet365 Has found his feet again back down in class and looked the likely winner 2f out last time out when kicking for home early on soft ground over a mile. I came out of that thinking better ground would help him and shouldn't have a problem back down to 7f either. This is another drop in class to listed level and he gets a handy weight for age allowance here too. yossa6133 and kroni 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 (edited) One Trixie at Newbury today 2.30 Scarlet Dragon £2 win at 9/2 4.15 Dbai £2 win at 4.6 5.20 Inclyne £2 win at 4.8 One £1 Trixie = £4 = poss return of £145.67 Other equaliser bets: 2.10 Ayr Gumdrop £1.20 win at 5/1 2.10 Ayr Nastase 70p win at 12/1 2.45 Ayr Queen Of Rio 70p win at 12/1 3.55 Ayr Flying Pursuit £1.20 at 8/1 Total Multiples = £4 Total win bets = £9.80 My pic of the Napster tips (so Far) 3.40 Chantilly Jubilation 70p win at 14/1 3.55 Ayr Abstemious 70p win at 14/1 Only spent £1.40 so far but not all of my selected members have posted up yet = Total so far = £15.20 Back later 4.55 Ayr Strong Steps 30p win at 28/1 5.25 Ayr Chinese Spirit 45p win at 20/1 Total £2.15 on Napster picks Total stakes so far £15.95 ============================================================================================ Another blank day. Nastase was a bit unlucky to be beaten a neck and Dbai should have won but got into traffic problems about three times during the race. I sometimes wonder why I put money on top jockey's mounts. Anyway multiples showed a loss of £4 so the balance c/fwd is £674.69 (£800 Bank). The singles produced a loss of £11.95 hence the balance c/fwd is now £275.38 (Bank £400) Loads of class racing later on at Ayr, Newbury and Newmarket. Should be another day of Covid free armchair fun Forgot to mention that I am now keeping a memo and running total of my pick of the Napsters selections. I haven't scored so far and the negative balance after 3 days is - £8.40. My strategy is to select the best tips from the most of the in form napsters for the month. However, the minimum odds I take is 7/2 and I quite often choose to back outsiders. This means that there will be days when nothing comes together but hopefully over a period of time these wil be profitable ? Edited September 18, 2020 by The Equaliser Results Update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted September 18, 2020 Author Share Posted September 18, 2020 On 9/17/2020 at 3:19 PM, richard-westwood said: Ayr bronze cup Call me ginger 227 +2 Roundhay park 225 +3 Music society 224 +1 Tricky cavalry charge as youd expect with currently 25 runners but these 3 are a few points clear of next horse so I'll take the tag team and try and get some profit Call me ginger 5pts win 8/1 willh Roundhay park 5pt win 11/1willh Music society 5pt win 11/1 willh 6x1pt forecasts 23 hours ago, richard-westwood said: I'll try for 24x20p triefectas with above 3 and... never in paris .....xmas is coming on horizon so time to shoot for that big win to pay expenses 1st and 3rd ....close on the trifecta...roundhay wins 60pts returned kroni, BBBC, vikki37 and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mark42111 Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 6 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said: 1.10 Catterick - 1pt win Crown Princess @ 6/1 Bet365 I don't think the favourite is thrown in here and the drop back to a sharp 5f might not be ideal either so is worth taking on. I think Crown Princess could be the one to take advantage - couldn't get involved from off the pace when not having the clearest of passages at Wolverhampton last time but would have a good chance on any of her prominent efforts over 5f including when winning comfortably here. Hopefully will not get as far back today and can burn them off late in the day I hope. 2.30 Newbury - 2pts win Humanitarian @ 4/1 Bet365 Very interesting runner having run well in last year's Derby and if returning in anything like that form would go very close off a mark of 102. Flopped at Ascot subsequently but had excuses that day and returns here still relatively unexposed and for a powerful yard who can ready one after an absence. On any run other than his last effort he'd look well handicapped off this mark so worth chancing at a backable price. 3.40 Newbury - 2pts win Jumby @ 4/1 Bet365 Ran a very good race to win on debut and then didn't have the race to suit last time out - racing keenly off a modest gallop before keeping on without threatening. I thought he was the best horse in the race despite only coming home in 4th and is well worth another chance today. 3.20 Ayr - 1pt e/w Magical Journey @ 7/1 Bet365 I think these conditions will really suit Magical Journey who did well when coming off the pace at Pontefract last time to do best of those held up and I just think the extended 5f with a bit of give in the ground could be the making of him. Has run many sound races to make his handicap mark look fair, and even running to his mark here would see a good run. I think a few extra pounds can be eked out under these conditions and looks a good e/w bet. 3.55 Ayr - 1pt e/w Abstemious @ 14/1 Bet365 Consistent type who has been running well and again these conditions look spot on. Has run respectably over 7f and 6f including on quicker ground but a slower surface and a strong test over 6f looks absolutely perfect for this one and has cheekpieces added for this afternoon. Looks sure to run his race and is a decent price now getting perfect conditions if getting the necessary luck with a clear run and being on the right part of the track. 4.15 Newbury - Kinross @ 4/1 Bet365 Has found his feet again back down in class and looked the likely winner 2f out last time out when kicking for home early on soft ground over a mile. I came out of that thinking better ground would help him and shouldn't have a problem back down to 7f either. This is another drop in class to listed level and he gets a handy weight for age allowance here too. Cheers for the tip in the 1.10Pm at Catterick!Think you jinxed her "I actually own a share in Crown Princess" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 6 hours ago, The Equaliser said: I've lumped on your nap Jubilation. Well put 70p win on at 14/1. I suspect that @MCLARKE may have a different view with regard to the odds on Legal Attack. Good luck anyway Value is a very subjective thing. There are so many variables involved that is impossible to calculate the true chance of a horse. The market odds are probably the best indication of a horse's chance. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 23 hours ago, Villa Chris said: 4.15 Newbury , Glorious Journey 15/2 won represents decent value I think 75 points profit vikki37, LEE-GRAYS and richard-westwood 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 9 hours ago, The Equaliser said: I've lumped on your nap Jubilation. Well put 70p win on at 14/1. I suspect that @MCLARKE may have a different view with regard to the odds on Legal Attack. Good luck anyway Mine was quite disappointing but i think i called legal attack right it was beaten 5 lengths one good thing tho the winner Plainchant needs going into a few notebooks it was by far the quickest horse at the meeting putting in an exceptional time. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 32 minutes ago, Zilzalian said: Mine was quite disappointing but i think i called legal attack right it was beaten 5 lengths one good thing tho the winner Plainchant needs going into a few notebooks it was by far the quickest horse at the meeting putting in an exceptional time. No worries, it is the bane of my life trying to work out if a horse, especially a favourite, will give its true expected running in a race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 1 hour ago, The Equaliser said: No worries, it is the bane of my life trying to work out if a horse, especially a favourite, will give its true expected running in a race. To be honest imo it dont matter. what i prefer to do is look at the winner if it beat my selection in a good time like plainchant did and by the distance it did i find its usually one to note this only applies in pattern races i rarely do it in handicaps. As a little experiment lets see where this plainchant ends up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avongirl Posted September 18, 2020 Share Posted September 18, 2020 6 hours ago, mark42111 said: Cheers for the tip in the 1.10Pm at Catterick!Think you jinxed her "I actually own a share in Crown Princess" to the forum, and good luck next time out! The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zilzalian Posted September 19, 2020 Share Posted September 19, 2020 23 hours ago, The Equaliser said: One Trixie at Newbury today 2.30 Scarlet Dragon £2 win at 9/2 4.15 Dbai £2 win at 4.6 5.20 Inclyne £2 win at 4.8 One £1 Trixie = £4 = poss return of £145.67 Other equaliser bets: 2.10 Ayr Gumdrop £1.20 win at 5/1 2.10 Ayr Nastase 70p win at 12/1 2.45 Ayr Queen Of Rio 70p win at 12/1 3.55 Ayr Flying Pursuit £1.20 at 8/1 Total Multiples = £4 Total win bets = £9.80 My pic of the Napster tips (so Far) 3.40 Chantilly Jubilation 70p win at 14/1 3.55 Ayr Abstemious 70p win at 14/1 Only spent £1.40 so far but not all of my selected members have posted up yet = Total so far = £15.20 Back later 4.55 Ayr Strong Steps 30p win at 28/1 5.25 Ayr Chinese Spirit 45p win at 20/1 Total £2.15 on Napster picks Total stakes so far £15.95 ============================================================================================ Another blank day. Nastase was a bit unlucky to be beaten a neck and Dbai should have won but got into traffic problems about three times during the race. I sometimes wonder why I put money on top jockey's mounts. Anyway multiples showed a loss of £4 so the balance c/fwd is £674.69 (£800 Bank). The singles produced a loss of £11.95 hence the balance c/fwd is now £275.38 (Bank £400) Loads of class racing later on at Ayr, Newbury and Newmarket. Should be another day of Covid free armchair fun Forgot to mention that I am now keeping a memo and running total of my pick of the Napsters selections. I haven't scored so far and the negative balance after 3 days is - £8.40. My strategy is to select the best tips from the most of the in form napsters for the month. However, the minimum odds I take is 7/2 and I quite often choose to back outsiders. This means that there will be days when nothing comes together but hopefully over a period of time these wil be profitable ? interesting , Let me know how u get on with your napsters choices. was thinking of doing something similar, on the basis of a lucky 15 but consecutive runs seem a bit inconsistent and quite rare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted September 19, 2020 Share Posted September 19, 2020 (edited) On 9/17/2020 at 8:52 PM, Villa Chris said: Edited September 19, 2020 by Villa Chris Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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