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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 24 - March 1

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WTA Acapulco
Tamara Zidansek - Kaja Juvan 2@1.6 pinnacle /flat 10u/

Zidansek is best on clay. She really do not play well on hardcourt with 5-13 record past 52 weeks and there are not counted three losses in fed cup week ago to Stojanovic, Linette and Ozgen. She is playing soft tennis and doing quite a lot mistakes lately. Yesterday she surprisingly won over Kalinskaya, but Kalinskaya is very unstable player, she had many chances on return games, but she converted almost nothing and gifted Zidansek the win with easy mistakes.

 Juvan is big slovenian talent, who ended her junior campaing as 16yo and 5th junior of the world. Last year she crushed ITF events and slowly entering to top100. She is player on all surfaces, but her flat game is much more suitable on hards. Yesterday she denied matchpoints against Williams in a match of high quality. Before she went easily through qualies.

For me Juvan is the better player on faster surface and she will be boosted after the big win yesterday. I expect her to push Zidansek also on return games and control the whole match. GL

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Jan-Lennard Struff (+1.5 sets) to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 1.86 with Pinnacle

Fully agree with @darko08, Struff was just excellent against Bautista, fearless strong hitting from nearly all positions and he has good previous record against Tsitsipas, so there should be no fears coming from that. Taking the safer option though.

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Richard Gasquet to beat Gael Monfils at 4.63 with Pinnacle

A brave bet, but Monfils is going to lose eventually and I think it could very well be here after watching him play against Uchiyama. Of course, he has a fancy streak of many sets in a row and Gasquet is an aging force, but, fitness-wise, Monfils just doesn't seem to have a lot left in the tank from what I've seen and the fact of facing another Frenchman might just allow him to relax even more. I wouldn't even imagine playing this at 3.00 or so, but the implied probability is 22 percent and that just looks off to me.

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Ashleigh Barty (-2,5 Games) to beat Garbiñe Muguruza at 1.93 with Marathonbet

Muguruza has been impressive in this 2020 (only Rybakina has more wins in this year). She did Final in the AO, losing it against Kenin. In Dubai she did not play well. She could have lost the second set against Clijsters in the first round. In the second round she could have lost the match against Kudermetova and she finally lost in the third round against Brady. She has played very well in her last 2 matches here against Tomljanovic and Yastremska but she could have lost in the first round against Kasatkina. Muguruza prefers to play against big hitters like her but she suffers when she has to play against players like Barty. If she could have lost against Kasatkina (who is out of form) I hardly can see her winning against Barty. The problem here is that Barty only has played 1 match since the AO (Siegemund: 6-2, 6-3).

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9 minutes ago, lelit said:

 

Yesterday, I noticed grimaces caused by Jabeur's pain. Kvitova for 1.5 could be an interesting bet at one ball or set bookmakers.
But I'm afraid that tennis experts living here, doesn't bother to play games with such a low odd :)

I like low odds games but I need to have a lot of confidence on them. I do not recommend to make bets based only in a possible physical issue because if she's not ready to play she will not play but if she does and she has no problems you will have a problem (considering that your main reason to make the bet was a possible physical issue from a player). If Jabeur is ready to play do you think betting for Kvitova at 1.5 has value? Personally, I don't think so.

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Darko8,

I usually don't bet on such low odds, but I often try to use my insights. However, you must admit that Kvitova was and is a better tennis player. Jabeur has a life tournament in Doha and that's why I wouldn't play this match if I didn't notice her suffering.

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Not sure if I should post this, because the liquidity is shit at best so it may be for a few pennies and not for much use, but who knows, maybe it gets better:...Some stupid odds movement in in-play matches at Betfair again. The ITF Perth matches were suspended because of rain and once again people don't seem to know what the real odds are. For example the Myers - Akita and Arakawa - Parnaby matches. Akita leads a set and a break and was around 1,16 when the match got suspended (at oddspedia you can see that a lot of bookies have here even lower: https://oddspedia.com/tennis/australia/itf-perth-2-women/abbie-myers-shiho-akita-3149425/). Now she is trading in the 1,2x range and I see she has even been traded at 1,3x and 1,4x, which is madness. Same goes for the Arakwa match. Arakawa just broke back before the match suspended but is still trailing 3-4 and the odds were around evens when the match suspended. (Some bookies have that as well, some have Arakawa as a small favorite and some have Parnaby as the small favorite). However people, are now betting on 1,6x Arakawa , which is around or close to her starting price, instead of the actual odds. So if you are an in-play bettor and you can get matched, you should easily see some profit once again the matches start again. 

Edited by Crespo

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Tommy Paul to beat John Isner at 2.16 with Coolbet

Tommy and John have faced one time before and John won 6-3 6-3 about 3 years ago in Cincinnati. Now John is a weaker player than before and Tommy is a regular customer on the ATP circuit. The younger american finally got his game together and developed into something close to what John was when he started climbing the rankings at 22 years old. Tommy is 22 years old now and it can only get better for him and I see him winning this match in some way. Johns serving has been below par for a long time now even though he reached the Miami masters final injured last season. But after that injury it has only gone down for him and I don't think John is a top 20 player anymore, it's just that his ranking hasn't cought up with him yet. Tommy has a huge chance I think and he's worth backing at 2.16.

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Novak Djokovic (-5.0 Games) to beat Gael Monfils at 2.04 with Marathonbet

Monfils always has been dominated by Djokovic (16-0). Novak has been impressive this week, destroying all his opponents: Jaziri (6-1, 6-2), Kohlschreiber (6-3, 6-1) and Khachanov (6-2, 6-2). Monfils also has won all his matches here in straight sets (Fucsovics, Uchiyama and Gasquet) and he won in Marseille and Rotterdam but I think this could be a problem for him because he has played too many matches and he usually has physical issues when he plays too many matches in a short term. As I said, Djokovic never had problems to beat Monfils and he has been impressive this week so I expect another win in straight sets from Djokovic.

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Kyle Edmund (-1,5 Games) to beat Taylor Fritz at 1.80 with 888

Edmund is in a very good moment. He won in New York dropping only 1 set in the whole tournament and he has won his 2 matches here in straight sets (Feliciano Lopez and Felix Auger). Fritz last results has been very poor. He lost in the first round against Norrie in Delray Beach and in the second round against Krueger in Newport Beach.

Stan Wawrinka (-1,5 Sets) to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 2.48 with 888

Dimitrov results in this 2020 are absolutely horrible and he could have lost in his last match here against Mannarino. Wawrinka is playing so much better than Grigor (he reached the QFs in the AO, winning against Medvedev in the fourth round). He has won against Tiafoe and Pedro Martinez in his 2 matches here. The last 5 times they have played in the last 2 years Wawrinka has won all of them.

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Casper Ruud to beat Federico Delbonis at 1.44 with bet365 (ATP 250 Santiago, Chile 🇨🇱

Ruud seems so dominant on clay these days and I can't see how Delbonis can stop him from reaching another semifinal tomorrow. I happen to find the Argentinian player quite mediocre as well, even on his favorite surface. 

Kuznetsova v Sabalenka Total Sets - 3 Sets at 2.50 with bet365

Both players are in great form and I expect a huge battle for the ticket that leads to the final. I like Kuznetsova's chances here but I think that Sabalenka hardly ever loses without taking a set... 

 

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Cedrik-Marcel Stebe to beat John Jeffrey Wolf at 2.03 with Pinnacle

While I wasn't too impressed with Stebe's near-choke against Pecotic, I still don't know what exactly makes him the underdog in this match. He's a consistent and complete player with all the shots, while Wolf is more mercurial with a tendency to shine and fall here and there. He's already played two three-setters here as well, so it's not been a smooth ride for him either. Given all that, I'd have Stebe as the marginal favorite here, not the marginal underdog.

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Dubai : According to what I have seen so far in the tournament :

Djokovic -4.5 games to beat Monfils @1.62 bet365

Evans +3.5 games to beat Tsitsipas @2 bet365

Doha : Sabalenka to beat Kuznetsova @1.44 bet365

Few words. Monfils just return balls against either weak players like Fuscovic, or totally out of the mainstream like Gasguet. Djoko as always incredibly reliable.

Tsitsipas far from being convincing yesterday, and we all know that players like Struff are of moon mood, never worth to be trusted, mentally collapsing out of nothing. Here I have the advantage of 3.5 games favouring Evans, a strong player and much more reliable in this tournament than almost all the others except Djoko. 

Doha :

Sabalanka is a rising star in my eyes, super powerful player, astonishing hitter, I see her as winner against the 'every now and then' Kusnetsova

Good luck my punters!

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Kacper Zuk to beat Arthur Rinderknech at 2.15 with local (but already starting to appear at some)

Posting this a bit early and I'm again a bit frustrated by Stebe's choke in the second set, but what can you do. In any case, Kacper Zuk has been getting to a better level ever since he had a chance to play in the ATP Cup and he's been pretty awesome so far this week, even upsetting the big star Pospisil before beating two very solid players. Rinderknech is perhaps on their level or slightly better, but he also has many matches in his legs and that's what makes Zuk a slight favorite for me here. Not a great deal of value, but some.

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WTA Monterrey
Marcela Zacarias - Olga Govortsova  2@1.42 pinnacle /flat 10u/

Govortsova is former stable top100 player, who dropped to 500 in the rankings after the 2016 injury. After the comeback, she looked like she wont care anymore, but this year she is playing well again. She won tough ITF100 in Nicholasville without dropping a set and beats good plaers in Andrezieux as well.

Zacarias climbied 250 places last season, but full 100 of them was thanks to lucky draw in Tyler, where she beat two qualifiers and then Vandweghe retired to her. Otherwise she is succesfull only on ITF25 and lower. She has 0-9 career record against top200 players. 

I see Olga as huge fav here against the wild card. She is on her way to around top100 again. Odds rised so have to take this. GL


WTA Monterrey
Stefanie Voegele - Sara Errani  2@1.96 pinnacle /flat 10u/ dropped a bit


Errani was really weak after doping comeback. She was little dangerous on clay, but so weak on hard with even worse serv than before. In new season she is showing big improvements, better fitness and really solid first serv, which is maybe best in her whole career. Even big hitter like Wang wasnt killing her on serv and needed three sets to beat Sara. Earrani was playing well last week in same conditons, she demolished Gibbs and Voegele, won tight match with Sorribes and lost in three sets to Wang.

Voegele is nothing special last 3-4 seasons already. She is just running and waiting for mistakes, while she is doing a lot mistakes herself. I do not like her game at all.

Sara won 6-2 6-1 with Stefania last week and as I watched her in the main draw, I see her clear fav in this match.  She was playing her smart tennis, lot of dropshots and angles and di just few mistakes from backhand. Her serv numbers were really impressive on her serving skills. I dont not expect just three won games to repeat from Voegele, but she really wont like this match up again, as she will not get easy points from Sara. Correct odds 1,75 on italian. GL

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WTA Lyon
Irina Maria Bara - Isabella Shinikova 2@1.61 pinnacle /flat 10u/

I know pinn opened over 1,8, but will never post bets with joke early limits, as thats only stats hunt and nothing for followers. I think correct odds here shoudl be 1.4

Bara is pure claycourter. Small height, weaker serv, lot of running and defending mostly. Her record past three seasons on hardcourts is 7-20, which says it all. Here she surprisingly won with home wild card Albie, who is out of form, but still it was suprirse as almost 3,0 underdog.

Shinikova improved a lot last season on faster courts. She is 7W-6L this season on quite strong events. Week before she lost to Kostyuk in Cairos quaterfinals, but Kostyuk dominated the whole event by far. Here she won over slowly improving Marcinkevica yesterday.

We have two players here, with big diffrence in quality on indoors surface and anything else than easy win for Isabella would surprise me. GL

WTA Lyon
Antonia Lottner - Cristina Bucsa 1@1.64 pinnacle /flat 10u/

I liked Lottner a lot at the end of last season on Indoor events. In Luxemburg she played really well. She is best on fastest surfaces, like grass or indoors. She have good serv and she is attacking from all positions. This season she didnt played much, but in AO she passed qualification and lose to Giorgi in main draw. Here she easily overcomes Brouleau, whi is 4th houndred player, but really dangerous indoors and on evenmore on home soil.

Bucsa is solid on fast courts, eventhoug she is spanish. She made surprising title in Natnes indoors, but that was really strange event, as many claycourters went deep and she won 7-6 in third Korpatsch in the finals. But since that surprise she has only 2W-6L record.

Bucsa is soild player, but I think Lottner will be too much one her indoors. Lottner will be pressing her and Bucsa will have lot of problems to catch up. GL

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