Tennis Tips - February 24 - March 1

[CzechPunter]

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[CzechPunter]

Stan Wawrinka (-2.5) to beat Frances Tiafoe at 1.99 with Pinnacle

Su-Wei Hsieh (-2.5) to beat Vera Zvonareva at 1.80 with Bet365

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Yulia Putinsteva at 1.57 with Pinnacle

Stan Wawrinka returns to the courts in Acapulco and I fancy him to win quite handily against Tiafoe, who hasn't really impressed me recently with his approach to first serves that simply aren't doing much and that should be costly against someone like Wawrinka unless he adjusts. Even if he does, Wawrinka is likely to be too strong. Meanwhile, I also fancy Hsieh to dispose of the ever-returning Zvonareva that can't really be trusted at all in my opinion despite beating Hsieh when the two met in 2018. Hsieh is playing throughout the year and Zvonareva should have trouble dealing with the slices with little match practice. Finally, I'm going to back the new-look Pavs that impressed in the Australian Open against Putinsteva, as her power should just be too much for the world's number 32. Pavs' new coach has taught her how to keep things under control errors-wise and that should be enough if she sticks to the game plan.

[FrenchPunter]

SaiSai Zheng to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 3.30 with Parions Sport

It will the 2nd meeting between these 2 players, Vondrousova leads 1-0 (on grass).

Vondrousova underwent wrist surgery towards the end of last year is now behind her after making an impressive comeback with a quarterfinal in Brisbane. However, she has only won 1 match since against a bad Sevastova during the 1st round in Dubai last week. Zheng is no slouch on hard courts, she pushed rising star Rybakina in Shenzhen a couple months ago & she could be a tricky opponent for Vondrousova who isn't at her best right now.

[FrenchPunter]

Carla Suarez Navarro to beat Shai Zhang at 2.15 with Parions Sport

The Spaniard leads 3-0 in the h2h (2 on grass, 1 on hard).

Nothing much to say on this one as I haven't seen none of these 2 play in 2020 but their last meeting was last year in Dubai with pretty much the same condiitions and Suarez won in 2 sets without any kind of troubles.

[WinningTipster]

One pick for ATP Dubai match

BAUTISTA-STRUFF 2:0 sets @ 1.85 willhill (1.83 pinnacle / betfair sportsbook and others)
Both play in similar style with consistency from the baseline but Bautista is better at this game. He will force Struff into unforced errors. The head-to-head is 4-1 to Bautista with 4 easy wins.

 

[FrenchPunter]

Jennifer Brady to beat Alison Riske at 2.00 with Parions Sport

It will be the 3rd meeting between the 2 Americans who have won a match each. Despite what the bookies think, I don't see how Riske can beat Brady here after the level she showed last week in Dubai. She was eliminated in the 1st round by Jabeur and even if she took 1 set her level was far from convincing me, which was confirmed by looking at her stats after the match (34 unforced errors, 11 DF). On the contrary, Brady comes out of a big tournament where she eliminated 3 seed players (Hsieh, Svitolina, Muguruza) before being defeated in the semi-final by Halep who lifted the trophy then.

[CzechPunter]

Nick Kyrgios (-2.5) to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.83 with Bet365

You obviously never really know with Kyrgios, but this looks like a decent spot to me. He has a soft spot for Acapulco, he's the defending champion, and he'll be playing against a young gun that he'll probably want to establish himself against. Moreover, Humbert suffered pretty badly against Nishioka, losing the thread completely after starting incredibly well.

[darko08]

Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Roberto Bautista at 3.80 with 888

I'm not agree with WinningTispter in this one. I don't like at all how Bautista has played in his last 2 tournaments. In the AO he was dominated by Cilic and in Rotterdam he lost against Carreño in the second round. I saw him very vulnerable in these 2 matches and I think all the value is on Struff. Struff and Thiem were the only 2 players who took a set from Djokovic in the AO. In Rotterdam he also lost in the first round but he played against Felix Auger who did an amazing tournament (reaching the Final) and he took a set from him (6-1). 

Alison Van Uytvanck to beat Elena Rybakina at 3.00 with bet365

Rybakina has played 11 matches in the last 2 weeks. She's one of the most in form players but she has played too many matches in the last days. She dropped a set against Cirstea in her first match here and now she will have a hard match in her second round here. Van Uytvanck has destroyed Hercog in her first match here (6-2, 6-2) and she did not concede any BP in the whole match. I'm still impressed with how she played against Kvitova in St. Petersburg (she could have won that match). 

Anett Kontaveit to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 2.50 with bet365

I have nothing much to say in this one. Kontaveit did very well in the AO, reaching the QF's. In Dubai she won against Cirstea and Pavlycuhenkova and she finally lost against Martic. She has won against Sevastova in straight sets in her first match here. Sabalenka lost in the first round against Carla Suarez in the AO but she won a couple of matches in Dubai against very good players (Sakkari and Mertens). I think Kontaveit is a little bit underrated in this one.

Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Garbiñe Muguruza at 3.00 with bet365

Muguruza is suffering in every single match since her big disappointment in the Final of the AO. In Dubai she could have lost a set against Clijsters. She could have lost against Kudermetova in the second round and she finally lost against Brady in the third round. In her first round here she could have lost against Kasatkina (the russian player had 28 BP). As I said, she looks very vulnerable and I have the feelings that she can lose against any decent player. Tomljanovic lost in the second round of the AO against Muguruza in a 3 set match. In St. Petersburg she lost in the second round against Potapova (she reached the Final) after winning against Vondrousova. In Dubai she lost in the first round against Mattek-Sands in a 3 set match but in her first match here she has destroyed Hon (6-2, 6-4).

[FrenchPunter]

Ricardas Berankis to beat Nikoloz Basilashvili at 2.15 with Parions Sport

H2H is 2-0 for the Lithuanian, the last match was in 2014 at the Challenger of Andria where Basilashvili gave up in the 2nd set after losing the 1st 6-4. Berankis has been on an upward slope since the beginning of the year, he arrives in Dubai after a semi-final lost in Pune against Vesely (who lifted the trophy after) in a very close match with 3 tie breaks. In contrast, the Georgian won only 2 matches shyly this year and doesn't seem to me fully recovered from his elbow surgery done at the end of last year.

[FrenchPunter]

Guys, what do you think of Bublik winning against Hurkacz? I hesitate between this match and Kudermetova winning against Bencic (she leads 3-1 and lost only on grass). 

[darko08]

42 minutes ago, FrenchPunter said:

Guys, what do you think of Bublik winning against Hurkacz? I hesitate between this match and Kudermetova winning against Bencic (she leads 3-1 and lost only on grass). 

Both matches are interesting. Bublik played very well the last week and Hurkacz is playing really bad... The problem here is that Bublik is crazy. If he plays focused i have no doubts he can win but it's impossible to know because he's crazy (he even said the last week that he doesn't like to play tennis and he only does for the money). Bencic also is in a bad moment and Kudermetova did well in Dubai so... I don't want to choose one of them but I have to say that both look good.

[FrenchPunter]

19 minutes ago, darko08 said:

Both matches are interesting. Bublik played very well the last week and Hurkacz is playing really bad... The problem here is that Bublik is crazy. If he plays focused i have no doubts he can win but it's impossible to know because he's crazy (he even said the last week that he doesn't like to play tennis and he only does for the money). Bencic also is in a bad moment and Kudermetova did well in Dubai so... I don't want to choose one of them but I have to say that both look good.

Thank you for having answered me so quickly, I will choose Kudermetova which was my 1st idea but it's always good to have one or more external opinions 

[liquidglass]

9 hours ago, darko08 said:

Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Roberto Bautista at 3.80 with 888

I'm not agree with WinningTispter in this one. I don't like at all how Bautista has played in his last 2 tournaments. In the AO he was dominated by Cilic and in Rotterdam he lost against Carreño in the second round. I saw him very vulnerable in these 2 matches and I think all the value is on Struff. Struff and Thiem were the only 2 players who took a set from Djokovic in the AO. In Rotterdam he also lost in the first round but he played against Felix Auger who did an amazing tournament (reaching the Final) and he took a set from him (6-1). 

Alison Van Uytvanck to beat Elena Rybakina at 3.00 with bet365

Rybakina has played 11 matches in the last 2 weeks. She's one of the most in form players but she has played too many matches in the last days. She dropped a set against Cirstea in her first match here and now she will have a hard match in her second round here. Van Uytvanck has destroyed Hercog in her first match here (6-2, 6-2) and she did not concede any BP in the whole match. I'm still impressed with how she played against Kvitova in St. Petersburg (she could have won that match). 

Anett Kontaveit to beat Aryna Sabalenka at 2.50 with bet365

I have nothing much to say in this one. Kontaveit did very well in the AO, reaching the QF's. In Dubai she won against Cirstea and Pavlycuhenkova and she finally lost against Martic. She has won against Sevastova in straight sets in her first match here. Sabalenka lost in the first round against Carla Suarez in the AO but she won a couple of matches in Dubai against very good players (Sakkari and Mertens). I think Kontaveit is a little bit underrated in this one.

Ajla Tomljanovic to beat Garbiñe Muguruza at 3.00 with bet365

Muguruza is suffering in every single match since her big disappointment in the Final of the AO. In Dubai she could have lost a set against Clijsters. She could have lost against Kudermetova in the second round and she finally lost against Brady in the third round. In her first round here she could have lost against Kasatkina (the russian player had 28 BP). As I said, she looks very vulnerable and I have the feelings that she can lose against any decent player. Tomljanovic lost in the second round of the AO against Muguruza in a 3 set match. In St. Petersburg she lost in the second round against Potapova (she reached the Final) after winning against Vondrousova. In Dubai she lost in the first round against Mattek-Sands in a 3 set match but in her first match here she has destroyed Hon (6-2, 6-4).

Sabalenka seems to have everything bar a champions mentality. For her, delivery is imminent. She just needs to work a bit more on her temperament to pave the way for success. Judging from last week, it looks almost certain that she is destined for another deep run here. I feel that the destructive  fore hand coupled with the aggressive style will keep Kontaveit well and truly contained.

Rybakina really should be ripe for a loss after the exertions of the past week. However I am not a fan of trying to predict outcomes based on how we think a player might feel. In most cases such predictions always turn out wrong. Somehow I just feel this Rybakina girl cherishes her long winning streak and really draws energy from it. My prediction here is another Rybakina win or a retirement. I don’t see her stumbling to defeat.

Edited February 25, 2020 by liquidglass

[CzechPunter]

Yeah it's really hard to predict Rybakina at the moment. You do feel that it's high time for her to crack but it was high time for her to crack all week long last week and she didn't crack at all. Could be crunch time now or she could just make another final!

[lelit]

Betting against the recently mentally weak Bencic is quite logical; she loves her daddy but doesn't respect him, always argueing with him when she looks for good advices. She is hysterical with her mistakes. She wins first sets easily and then loses the next two easily. Very weak second serv, too. Maybe she needs a new coach? 

I also think the odds on Kuznetsova are encouraging; she is too experienced and Swiatek's tactical skills are not very good.

Edited February 25, 2020 by lelit

[darko08]

8 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Sabalenka seems to have everything bar a champions mentality. For her, delivery is imminent. She just needs to work a bit more on her temperament to pave the way for success. Judging from last week, it looks almost certain that she is destined for another deep run here. I feel that the destructive  fore hand coupled with the aggressive style will keep Kontaveit well and truly contained.

Rybakina really should be ripe for a loss after the exertions of the past week. However I am not a fan of trying to predict outcomes based on how we think a player might feel. In most cases such predictions always turn out wrong. Somehow I just feel this Rybakina girl cherishes her long winning streak and really draws energy from it. My prediction here is another Rybakina win or a retirement. I don’t see her stumbling to defeat.

2 weeks ago this man said he was 100 % sure about a prediction he made concerning 2 bets of mine (and he was wrong...). @CzechPunterIs this allowed? I mean, imagine a man who visits this forum and read this guy telling that he's 100% sure about a couple of bets... you think it's normal? This man is really dangerous. 
I don't understand why you are always commenting my posts (I have never seen you commenting bets from anyone else). Is this your only task here? If I posted the victory of Van Uytvanck is because I thought she could won. As I said, I liked very much how she played against Hercog. I would never make a bet based only in the possible fatigue of a player... 
You have suffered a lot with both matches, right...? 

Edited February 25, 2020 by darko08

[CzechPunter]

Still within limits, but on the watch list ?.

[lelit]

Yastremska-Muguruza? I belive somehow in "Bajin effect" but odds on Yastremska is too short, imo . She played very concentrated and disciplined against Kenin. Maybe +1.5 set 1.492 Pinnacle?

 

Edited February 25, 2020 by lelit

[four-leaf]

Ash Barty to beat (-1.5 sets) Elena Rybakina at 1.96 with Unibet

I think Rybakina has reached the end of the line here. Aash beat her in this seasons AO in straights and I doubt this time that Rybakina has enough left in the tank to cause another chock. 

[CzechPunter]

 @four-leaf Strange of Unibet to still have the odds, Rybakina withdrew earlier!

[darko08]

Krejcikova/Siniakova (2-0) to beat Buyukakcay/Siegemund at 1.83 with Marahtonbet

Too much difference between these 2 pairs. This is the first time that Buyukakcay and Siegemund play together and none of them are good double players. Krejcikova/Siniakova have won in straight sets (6-1, 6-3) against a better pair in their first round here. 

Rublev (vs. Krajinovic) + Struff (vs Basilashvili) at 2.00 with 888

Rublev lost against Krajinovic the last week in Rotterdam but I can't imagine this happening again. Krajinovic has suffered in his first round here against Joao Sousa (4-6, 6-3, 6-3) and Rublev has won in 2 sets against the young italian promise Musetti (6-4, 6-4). Struff has impressed me in his first round here against Bautista (7-6, 7-5). He has played really really well and Basilashvili could have lost against Berankis (5-7, 7-6, 6-3) so Struff looks the right favorite to me.

Kiki Bertens (2-0) to beat Saisai Zheng at 1.70 with 888

Bertens is in a very good form. She played really well in her previous tournament in St Petersburg, winning there against Kudermetova (6-1, 6-2), Potapova (6-4, 7-6), Alexandrova (6-1, 4-6, 6-1) and Rybakina (6-1, 6-3). In her first match here she has won against Muchova (6-2, 6-4). Saisai has won against Vondrousova and Zvonariova. I'm not impressed with her victory against Vondrousova because the Czech is still so far from her best form. In Dubai, Saisai lost in 2 sets against Siniakova (who was in a very bad form) so considering the difference between Bertens and Saisai and the good form of Bertens I can see her winning this without too much problems.

[Toptipsters]

WTA Doha
Amanda Anisimova - Svetlana Kuznetsova [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

I took a bet against Anisimova in the first round, as she had a stomach problems lat week and played really bad with Strycova. But the way she won that first round with in form Alexandrova, and the way she pushed out Svitolina in 2nd round made quite big impression to me. Anisimova was playing really well, like she did in first half of last season and for me she is back in good form with higher confidence. 

I saw Kuznetsova in almost all matches this year and I see big diffrence between both players. Svetlana won with Vondrousova in AO, but Marketa is still not ready after injury. Otherwise her results and play are about average. Here she won Buyukakcay and Swiatek, but espacially Swiatek played really badly today.

Kuznetsova is playing little better than expected at the end of her career, but it wont be enough against back in form Anisimova. Amanda will punsih her weaker serv and will push her back from all positions, as she did against Svita. This odds are best value from round 16 to me and I have to take young american at current odds. GL

[FrenchPunter]

Yulia Putintseva to beat Belinda Bencic at 2.05 with Parions Sport

The h2h is 3-1 in favor of Putintseva.

Bencic is miraculously here after a match far from being at the level of a top10 player against Kudermetova. Her frustration seems to have contaminated the Russian who was however very comfortable with her service, even succeeding a few aces on her 2nd. But as often (hence my hesitation to bet on her) the young Russian made too many enforced errors by wanting to play too much with the lines instead of keep it simple and on top of that she missed many easy points ( some REALLY easy lol).

On her side, Putintseva took revenge for her Fed Cup defeat against Mertens by eliminating the defending champion (yet in good shape) in 3 sets after losing the 1st set (4-6/6-3/6-2). The mental and especially the service of the Kazakh are clearly above the Swiss right now and I see her eliminated this one in straight sets like last year in Miami. I still chose a simple victory because the odd is high enough for me to take more unnecessary risks.

[four-leaf]

6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

 @four-leaf Strange of Unibet to still have the odds, Rybakina withdrew earlier!

Well they always do that and it annoys me. 

[CzechPunter]

Kyrgios retired and that means I'm still 1-1 for the week ?.

Cedrik-Marcel Stebe to beat Matija Pecotic at 1.41 with Pinnacle

Short odds, but I watched Stebe a couple of times in recent weeks and he's slowly getting back to ATP-level form and this is a great opportunity for him to get some wins at a reasonably strong Challenger. He was playing very decently against Raonic in Delray Beach and even somewhat less than that performance should be more than enough against Pecotic imo.

[Toptipsters]

WTA Doha
Jelena Ostapenko - Petra Kvitova [email protected] pinnacle /flat 10u/

Kvitova is really stable player this year. She lost only in tight fights to Keys and Barty. In Petersburg she withdrawn due to illness, but here she seemed fully fit and improved a lot during the match with Suarez, completly dominated 2nd and 3rd set with lot of winners and just few errors.

Ostapenko is little unstable this year after the family troubles. She had great draw here with Teichmann and Strycova, who both were in full defence against her. But she really hates fast hitters and that will be todays case. Kvitova is class better player currently for me and she will be forcing Jelena to many errors with her fast game. I think eveything over 1,4 is ok for a bet. so 1,44 pinn or 1,47 BF with 2% comm are good values for me. GL 

Edited February 26, 2020 by Toptipsters

[liquidglass]

K. Pliskova vs O. Jabeur

Since winning Brisbane at the beginning of the year Pliskova’s form has been a bit sketchy but not as bad as to say that she has not been playing well. In fact, I feel she is just about ready to commence another upward phase in form perhaps beginning here. She faces Ons Jabeur, one of the most improved WTA players of the year. Ons posses a very big and robust game and can be extra dangerous when she plays in confident mode. I really think she has the belief that she is way up there with the elite of the game and I will be the first to agree with her. I feel her chances here of taking Pliskova out are certainly over 40%. Knowing fully well that this is going to be a serve oriented clash, I will play extra safe and go for the alternative totals market (Paddy Power) over 20.5 games 8/10.

[aussietennisexpert]

Quick question for Doha..

do you guys factor in the wind when making your picks ?

so far the strongest players seem to win but holding serve is very hard and on some shots the ball seems to move a good 3 meters to the side..

 

There seems to be less wind into the evening... 

[CzechPunter]

In live betting, yes.

[darko08]

Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 3.2 with betfair

I repeat with Struff. I have not watched him against Basilashvili (6-1, 6-0) but as I said in my last post he impressed me with his match against Bautista (7-6, 7-5). Tsitsipas has suffered a lot against Bublik in his last match here (7-6, 6-4). The h2h is 2-2 but the last 2 times they have played Struff has won. I think Struff is underrated for this one.

Jan-Lennard Struff vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games at 1.9 with betfair