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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 25 - March 3

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38 minutes ago, money44 said:

Kohlschreiber live bet 3.75 odds staked 2 units

Unlucky with this. Federer looked very shaky in the second set before the status quo was restored in the decider. I'd be very wary of backing Federer this season, despite the promising results at the Hopman Cup and to a lesser degree the Australian Open. I don't have any numbers to back it up so this is purely anecdotal, but as his level has dropped over the last year or so it seems to me that he's dropping the second set of matches on an increasingly regular basis and also not winning in straight sets as often as he used to. If I'm right about that then the chances are it's symptomatic of the drop in level that I mentioned and also his age - physically things are typically very different in your late 30's compared to your late 20's and also mentally concentration and focus can become more difficult. Because of who he is though and his name he'll probably continue to be priced very short against most players but I think most players would think they have a chance against him now - the aura is not the same anymore. It wouldn't surprise me if betting against him for the remainder of the season yielded a profit.

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Peter Gojowczyk to beat (-1.5 sets) Federico Gaio at 1.85 with Unibet

Peter should have way to mutch for Federico to handle. Federico did well to beat Emilio Gomez last night but this is a step up in class and I'm very concerned about Federicos serve, how will it hold up this time when it didn't hold up last match? He was almost knocked out because he got broken in third set. I can only see one outcome here, Peter in two.

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Daniel Brands to beat Nicola Kuhn at 1.95 with Unibet

Brands still has the edge in this match-up indoors imo. He did lose against Galovic last time out, but he was quite splendid in Sofia before that, while Kuhn is still very much on the border between Challengers and the main level, still somewhat closer to the former unfortunately. On indoors quality alone, I'd say that Brands should be at around 1.70 here.

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Sorry , was making a late dinner here 

Ivashka, Berankis, Sakamoto, Siegemund.. I'm only listing four to make things simple .. I think one of these will come in today .. 1 out of 4 returns loss on other 3 nearly ... good luck guys , and love to hear feedback on these ..

Edited by money44

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I did not see the challenger lines posted until now .. maybe there is something more.. I am looking for it .. Seems like decent logic from Czech going for Brands .. I may take a punt on that one as well .. starts pretty soon.. I have some sneaky feeling with Berankis today, and I can't get it out of my head.. I want to bet prematch but maybe i'll do live instead for riskier large stake .. who knows

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6 minutes ago, money44 said:

anybody else here think Berankis has a shot ? Daniil looked a bit worn down in Rotterdam running all over the place, and maybe this is a good time for an easy loss, and some rest for full recovery 2019 

Nah, Medvedev has now had sufficient rest, IMO. His service game alone should ensure easy service holds.

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Pretty hard not to agree with you.. There is a huge difference in quality between these two players.. I think i'm off Berankis for now .. I almost got sucked into it.. The courts in Dubai are not as slow as I thought they were ... A much more likely chance is Ivashka showing up against Berdych. 

Berdych has an atrocious serve, and it can easily get exposed in his first match with Ivashka.. he has good return of serves, and a stronger serve than tomas.. Seems like a real live dog 

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at this point I believe that i have been saved by South African .. I am still little bit on edge from decision making past two days , and missed chances ... I am preparing for large stake on Ivashka depending on the results from early matches in Dubai. 

I do think Cilic will have fresh legs vs Monfils. He has never beaten him before, and that's not going to fly with Marin.. It's a perfect storm for Gael Monfils today, but either way .. still i'm not confident with this, and I just wait to make decision on Ivashka for large payout. 

Edited by money44

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Verdasco to win a set against Federer at 2.75 with Bet365.

As we all know, Federer is very vulnerable these days. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up losing to Verdasco here. Granted Verdasco has never won a match against Federer, this is his best chance to do so and I am sure he knows it as well. I have been noticing a pattern with Federer these days, he has found it difficult to close his matches out and there's moments during a match, where he plays like a complete mug. I am hoping there's enough dip in form from Federer for Verdasco to capitalise and atleast win a set. 

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43 minutes ago, BuffChestmen said:

Decent Dogs:

Jarry ML 4.160 @ Pinny

Mannarino ML 3.690 Pinny

Jarry is clay court player and ADM hasn't done much on clay. I don't think ADM likes the slow courts.

Isner is there for his appearance fee and Mannarino has points to protect.

Acapulco is played on hard and Adrian Mannarino always had it tough against Big John, he doesn't deal with his serve very well so with the risk of Big John emerging victorious in the that matchup again I don't think there's any value in Adrian at 4.16. 

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49-102 +87.2 units 

Borna Coric to win Dubai @ odds 10 with Bet365 - 10 units

Stan Wawrinka to win Acapulco @ odds 11 with 5dimes - 10 units

I can see atleast one of these players raising the trophy. For two players in form on a double chance odds around 5.5/1. I'm very happy with this placement, and hope to find the right choice here. Good luck Ladies and Gents. 

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Odds here is taken from 5dimes and Bet365

ATP Sao Paulo Future outright winners

Giannessi - 1 unit @ 101

Hugo Dellien - 1 unit @ 51

Marco Trungelliti - 1 unit @ 41

Albert Ramos - 2 units @ 19

Elias Ymer - 1 unit @ 41

Lorenzo Sonego - 1 unit @ 51

--

WTA Acapulco Future winners: 

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 1 unit @ 67

Rebecca Peterson - 1 unit @ 34

Buzarnescu - 2 unit @ 26

Yafan Wang - 1 unit @ 34

Laura Siegemund - 1 unit @ 51

 

Edited by money44
Addition of Sonego, add unit to Buzarnescu

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2 hours ago, BuffChestmen said:

Jarry is clay court player and ADM hasn't done much on clay. I don't think ADM likes the slow courts.

1

Maybe the courts in Acapulco are not that fast, but they are definitely not clay :) 

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8 hours ago, BuffChestmen said:

Awe frick. I'm an idiot....

well.. Jarry is probably a bust then. Isner outside the US is always a good fade imo. I assumed it was clay court.

still there was some value on Jarry .. covered the games by a country mile.. it was a good pick on him depending on how u look at it ..was also confused by that match 

Edited by money44

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