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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 25 - March 3

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I did not see the challenger lines posted until now .. maybe there is something more.. I am looking for it .. Seems like decent logic from Czech going for Brands .. I may take a punt on that one as well .. starts pretty soon.. I have some sneaky feeling with Berankis today, and I can't get it out of my head.. I want to bet prematch but maybe i'll do live instead for riskier large stake .. who knows

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6 minutes ago, money44 said:

anybody else here think Berankis has a shot ? Daniil looked a bit worn down in Rotterdam running all over the place, and maybe this is a good time for an easy loss, and some rest for full recovery 2019 

Nah, Medvedev has now had sufficient rest, IMO. His service game alone should ensure easy service holds.

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Pretty hard not to agree with you.. There is a huge difference in quality between these two players.. I think i'm off Berankis for now .. I almost got sucked into it.. The courts in Dubai are not as slow as I thought they were ... A much more likely chance is Ivashka showing up against Berdych. 

Berdych has an atrocious serve, and it can easily get exposed in his first match with Ivashka.. he has good return of serves, and a stronger serve than tomas.. Seems like a real live dog 

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at this point I believe that i have been saved by South African .. I am still little bit on edge from decision making past two days , and missed chances ... I am preparing for large stake on Ivashka depending on the results from early matches in Dubai. 

I do think Cilic will have fresh legs vs Monfils. He has never beaten him before, and that's not going to fly with Marin.. It's a perfect storm for Gael Monfils today, but either way .. still i'm not confident with this, and I just wait to make decision on Ivashka for large payout. 

Edited by money44

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Verdasco to win a set against Federer at 2.75 with Bet365.

As we all know, Federer is very vulnerable these days. I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up losing to Verdasco here. Granted Verdasco has never won a match against Federer, this is his best chance to do so and I am sure he knows it as well. I have been noticing a pattern with Federer these days, he has found it difficult to close his matches out and there's moments during a match, where he plays like a complete mug. I am hoping there's enough dip in form from Federer for Verdasco to capitalise and atleast win a set. 

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43 minutes ago, BuffChestmen said:

Decent Dogs:

Jarry ML 4.160 @ Pinny

Mannarino ML 3.690 Pinny

Jarry is clay court player and ADM hasn't done much on clay. I don't think ADM likes the slow courts.

Isner is there for his appearance fee and Mannarino has points to protect.

Acapulco is played on hard and Adrian Mannarino always had it tough against Big John, he doesn't deal with his serve very well so with the risk of Big John emerging victorious in the that matchup again I don't think there's any value in Adrian at 4.16. 

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49-102 +87.2 units 

Borna Coric to win Dubai @ odds 10 with Bet365 - 10 units

Stan Wawrinka to win Acapulco @ odds 11 with 5dimes - 10 units

I can see atleast one of these players raising the trophy. For two players in form on a double chance odds around 5.5/1. I'm very happy with this placement, and hope to find the right choice here. Good luck Ladies and Gents. 

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Odds here is taken from 5dimes and Bet365

ATP Sao Paulo Future outright winners

Giannessi - 1 unit @ 101

Hugo Dellien - 1 unit @ 51

Marco Trungelliti - 1 unit @ 41

Albert Ramos - 2 units @ 19

Elias Ymer - 1 unit @ 41

Lorenzo Sonego - 1 unit @ 51

--

WTA Acapulco Future winners: 

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 1 unit @ 67

Rebecca Peterson - 1 unit @ 34

Buzarnescu - 2 unit @ 26

Yafan Wang - 1 unit @ 34

Laura Siegemund - 1 unit @ 51

 

Edited by money44
Addition of Sonego, add unit to Buzarnescu

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2 hours ago, BuffChestmen said:

Jarry is clay court player and ADM hasn't done much on clay. I don't think ADM likes the slow courts.

1

Maybe the courts in Acapulco are not that fast, but they are definitely not clay :) 

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8 hours ago, BuffChestmen said:

Awe frick. I'm an idiot....

well.. Jarry is probably a bust then. Isner outside the US is always a good fade imo. I assumed it was clay court.

still there was some value on Jarry .. covered the games by a country mile.. it was a good pick on him depending on how u look at it ..was also confused by that match 

Edited by money44

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Denis Kudla to beat Ricardas Berankis at 2.45 with Unibet

I'll give Denis some bigger chances than the odds suggest for him to win. They met twice as they split a pair of matches in 2013 on hardcourt. Why pick Denis? I like how he dismantled Matteo Berrettini and I think Ricardas might be overrated now because he beat Daniil Medvedev. This match should at least be 50/50 before it begins. How it goes when it starts is another thing but I'll take my chances with Denis at the current odds.

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24 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

Denis Kudla to beat Ricardas Berankis at 2.45 with Unibet

I'll give Denis some bigger chances than the odds suggest for him to win. They met twice as they split a pair of matches in 2013 on hardcourt. Why pick Denis? I like how he dismantled Matteo Berrettini and I think Ricardas might be overrated now because he beat Daniil Medvedev. This match should at least be 50/50 before it begins. How it goes when it starts is another thing but I'll take my chances with Denis at the current odds.

Do you think an in-play bet might be useful here? Just to see how they are measuring up to each other?

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@South_African_Punter or anybody else awake ?.. what do you think the chances of Gerasimov are today .. he's beating quality opponents, and I believe that Stefanos might be gassed out. @four-leaf did you see how well berankis was playing yesterday.. kudla may have only won because of poor form opponent 

Edited by money44

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1 minute ago, money44 said:

@South_African_Punter or anybody else awake ?.. what do you think the chances of Gerasimov are today .. he's beating quality opponents, and I believe that Stefanos might be gassed out. 

Just remember that Haase, who he beat yesterday, is in very form at the moment, so not sure how much to read into Gerasimov's victory yesterday. Also Gerasimov had many BP opportunities yesterday (0/7 in Set 2), which he didn't take. It is very possible Tsistipas could be gassed out, but unsure whether Gerasimov can take advantage.

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Great , thats very important information , also Nishikori looks a bit gassed to me as well for the record but he is running quite fast .. so, I don't know what to think of that.. But it might be just enough to help me out either way .. ok i take break .. bbl 

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54 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Do you think an in-play bet might be useful here? Just to see how they are measuring up to each other?

Yes I think an in-play bet could be useful... I think I'll cash out my bet on Denis for now, I'm kind of worried that Denis might lose in straight sets after @money44 said Ricardas played well yesterday.

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Gael Monfils to beat (-4.5) Marcos Baghdatis at 1.90 with Unibet

Gael is defenitely worth a shot at this handicap today. He played excellent yesterday and Marcos will be under pressure constantly on his serve here. A little bit safer pick than going for Denis Kudla to beat Ricardas Berankis. Feeling confident that Gael covers this easy enough.

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