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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 25 - March 3

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5 hours ago, Crimson_Silhouette said:

Hurkacz to win a set against Tsitsipas at 2.25 with Bet365.

I have to admit that I am not entirely confident about this bet. Hurkacz didn't have an answer to Tsitsipas's game in Marseille last week. I watched Hurkacz beat Nishikori and it was more of Nishikori mugging it around than Hurkacz actually earning the win, but I hope this win has given the Pole, the confidence to play well in the upcoming rounds. Tsitsipas has looked alright so far, I can see a bit of fatigue creeping in and this should give Hurkacz an opening to win a set.

 

Let me tell you... I was debating between the set and game handicap here and decided to take the +4 games on Hurkacz... I was more confident he'll be able to cover that instead of winning a set. It was a small staked fun bet, but still very annoying to lose it like this... anyway, congrats on your pick and winnings! ;) 

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40 minutes ago, bobix said:

Let me tell you... I was debating between the set and game handicap here and decided to take the +4 games on Hurkacz... I was more confident he'll be able to cover that instead of winning a set. It was a small staked fun bet, but still very annoying to lose it like this... anyway, congrats on your pick and winnings! ;) 

Thank you! I was debating the same and decided to go with the set bet. 

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Alison Riske to beat Jennifer Brady at 2.05 with Bet365.

Having watched Riske beat Brady pretty comfortably when they met in Doha earlier this year, I have to take this bet up at the odds currently offered. Brady seems to be in good form, but I feel that Riske is just a better player overall and should win this match-up more often than not if she plays well. 

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Today I went relatively big on Fucsovics to cover the game handicap, and tomorrow will more than probably do the same on Coric. He will be a much difficult opponent for Roger than Basilashvili would have been mainly because of his style of play. I would like to see the game handicap lines first, but the set handicap is also a very good option. I admit that Coric is not playing his very best tennis at the moment, and dropped a set during all his matches so far in Dubai, but I barely expect signs of fatigue on him (at least much less than on Roger). I don't really like how the GOAT moves around the court this week, and I agree with all of you who lay him during these days. They played three times last year, Coric won twice and lost one in the decisive set.

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Dorosina vs Rodionova 2.23 SBOBet

ITF 25k Moscow

 

Doroshina is the last year winner here. She won easy her two matches. Yesterday the Russian played two matches for a total time of 2 and a half hours. Rodionova also played two, both 3-setters for a total of 4 hours. Rodionova is fighting in every set here.

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Borna Coric to beat Roger Federer @ 3.50 Boylesports

Coric should have a chance in this one and having got the better of Federer twice already in his fledgling career, if he does get one he can take it - unlike Fucsovics who let Federer off the hook when blowing two set points that would have seen him take the first set against the Swiss and lay the foundation for a big win. You could argue that neither player has looked in the best of form at this tournament, but like so many things it depends on perspective.

For me, the struggles that Coric has successfully come through to reach this round could be a good thing. As a younger player it's good to know that you can fight and scrap and win ugly, whereas for Federer I'd argue that he doesn't need or want to be pushed to the limit as often as he has in his previous matches here and there's not the same upside to winning tight matches for him as there is for Coric. I'm sure Federer realises that he hasn't played all that well so far which is probably his main focus, whilst Coric should take heart from finding a way to get across the line in his matches. I think the young Croat's perspective will be a lot more positive than Federer's will be, and that he can do what none of Kohlschreiber, Verdasco or Fucsovics managed and prevail against a Federer who has looked vulnerable all week.

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32 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

I was waiting for the +4.5 line and it never came, so I'll be steering clear of Roger today. Coric might very well win, but I'd like to get at least 3.50 for the outright.

ML odds opened at 4.10 on asian bookmakers, but since it dropped quickly there was no change to get nice game handicap lines later :( 

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Just now, four-leaf said:

Borna Coric to beat Roger Federer at 3.00 with Unibet

@Torque I'm totally with you on Borna today. I don't care that the odds have dropped. 3x is good enough because it's still an underestimation of Bornas chances which should be bigger than the odds suggests.

Fucsovics played well yesterday and he was dominating Federer from the baseline, but failed the clutchness test. Borna will run Federer ragged. The only thing I am worried about is Borna's fatigue, but I would be pretty surprised if Borna doesn't win today. 

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Stefano Tsitipas to beat Gael Monfils at 2.05 with SportingBet

Right, so both of these players had lapses of concentration yesterday when they both lost the 2nd set, although to be fair to Tsitipas, Hurkacz was playing at an amazingly high level yesterday. Tsitipas said in an interview yesterday (according to Flashscore):

Quote

The Greek youngster's struggles in closing out the match was understandable as he needed that win to make his top 10 debut next week. “I'm thinking about it almost every day. I want it badly. I want it to happen very much," said Stefanos Tsitsipas after the win.

So I feel there is tons of motivation here. My only concern with this bet would be possible tiredness from his win last week, however, I feel his huge motivation to get into the final could negate that somewhat.

Edited by South_African_Punter

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13 hours ago, ogii55 said:

Dorosina vs Rodionova 2.23 SBOBet

ITF 25k Moscow

 

Doroshina is the last year winner here. She won easy her two matches. Yesterday the Russian played two matches for a total time of 2 and a half hours. Rodionova also played two, both 3-setters for a total of 4 hours. Rodionova is fighting in every set here.

That  match was something to watch lol 6:7 7:6 7:6 Win

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Gael Monfils to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 1.80 with Bet365

I just don't see Monfils losing this week. He has been in terrific form, tracking down balls and making his opponents hit that extra ball. There is always a question mark with Monfils's temperament, but he has been amazingly mature this whole year. Tsitsipas has had a gruelling couple of weeks and I don't think he has enough in the tank to take out Monfils. 

 

 

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Damn I think Roger is gonna beat Borna in straight sets easily.. The Roger of old comes back today and shows who is boss. But I've still staked high on Borna to beat Roger and can't cash it out for some reason on Unibet. Maybe can cash-out when the match has started.

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Viktorija Golubic (-2.5 Games) to beat Sara Sorribes Tormo at 1.91 with William Hill

Both players have clay as their best surface but Golubic has a win/loss record of 80-48 on hard outdoors in front of the 58-54 record of Sorribes. Just one month ago Golubic won against Sorribes in the 1st round of the Thailand Open (6-2, 6-4), played on hard outdoors.

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24 minutes ago, Torque said:

Sometimes it's just not your day. Monfils loses two tie-breaks in a row after winning the first set and Coric is getting absolutely schooled by Federer :eyes

What a match.Possibly match of the year so far for me.Daniel Evans Vs Fed maybe 2nd AO in terms intensity-wise.

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Was thinking about Kyrgios today, but I suppose that this is the worst time to back him for certain reasons. No big name on the other side of the net (for him), some fatigue after two long matches, and it's not even the finals yet. He's won the last five sets against Isner, interestingly, but this has all the makings of a letdown I suppose. It's hard to turn the reasoning around and back Isner though imo.

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