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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - February 25 - March 3

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Rafa Nadal to beat (-4.5) Nick Kyrgios at 2.16 with Unibet

And suddenly the clown gets overrated like an Elephant at an amusement park because he beat the mug Andreas Seppi. Rafa is gonna destroy him. But still I keep the stakes down because you never know but things aren't looking bad for Rafa nowadays and I don't see Nick as the man who can seriously put a stop to Rafas title charge in Acapulco or even trouble him.

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Feliciano Lopez to beat Alex de Minaur at 3.65 with Unibet

Alex hasn't deserved this sort of favouritism yet. Especially not when he's facing a guy who served lefty like crazy against him in Paris last season and won just because of that and that Feli I saw yesterday also and if he can repeat that game again Alex could be in trouble.

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I'm also wondering what's going on with a certain Jannik Sinner right now. I haven't really been paying attention to him until last week, when he swept a Challenger tournament as a massive underdog, winning 5 matches as an underdog and the finals as the favorite, very decent opposition as well. Crazy what home conditions can do sometimes and considering which guys he was losing to before that tournament happened.

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Frances Tiafoe/Mackie Mcdonald over 2.5 sets at 2.32 with Unibet

I really don't see Frances as the man who suddenly takes down Mackie in straight sets and ends his good run because he's won one match in Acapulco. Mackie was playing very well in Delray Beach and a straight sets win for any of these two I don't see coming.

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1 minute ago, four-leaf said:

Frances Tiafoe/Mackie Mcdonald over 2.5 sets at 2.32 with Unibet

I really don't see Frances as the man who suddenly takes down Mackie in straight sets and ends his good run because he's won one match in Acapulco. Mackie was playing very well in Delray Beach and a straight sets win for any of these two I don't see coming.

Never mind all that... Go Mackie Go!!! :lol

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David Ferrer to beat (+4.5) Sascha Zverev at 1.78 with Unibet

David is looking awfully good this season even though it's his last but he's playing such tennis that I really don't see him going down in this match by 5 games. He's all over the place and playing great. When he beat Tennys Sandgren I just felt all the match David was the man to win it and I never got really worried even though he went down a break and Tennys served for the second set. David was just awesome and I don't see him going down here by more then 2-3 games in one of his best tournaments. He's got the crowd on his side to, they're really cheering for David every point he wins.

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52 minutes ago, Torque said:

My two cents on Federer v Fucsovics is that Fucsovics will never have a better chance to score a big win. Even if he goes a set down, he'll know he's still in it as Federer isn't closing out matches in straight sets with any kind of regularity at all. On top of that, Fucsovics took a set against Djokovic earlier in the season so a set against Federer must be a possibility and if it does go to three sets then who knows who takes the W. Kohli and Verdasco might have both fallen away but much of that probably has to do with all the losses they've suffered against Federer down the years. Fucsovics doesn't carry those kind of scars which could make him dangerous if he is able to be competitive in the same way Kohli and Verdasco were.

Kohlschrieber and Verdasco are both more accomplished players than fucsovics. We also know that sometimes Roger can struggle with lefties like Nadal.. I think that's the excuse for Verdasco to take a set off him 

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3 minutes ago, money44 said:

Kohlschrieber and Verdasco are both more accomplished players than fucsovics. We also know that sometimes Roger can struggle with lefties like Nadal.. I think that's the excuse for Verdasco to take a set off him 

They certainly are. They're also more accomplished than the likes of Millman, Donskoy, Stakhovsky, Kokkinakis and any of the numerous other rank outsiders over the years to beat the Swiss. Being more accomplished doesn't count for much IMO when you've never beaten the player across the net from you in a dozen tries or more.

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@Torque You have to decide for yourself what is right , but I don't see it happening .. If you watched the Fucsovics match this morning, and you thought he was spectacular .. maybe I might change my mind on this , but we haven't had a single person come in here and analyze the match vs Struff yet.. So we are only going based on the scoreline, and Beating Struff does not convince me 

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

I'm also wondering what's going on with a certain Jannik Sinner right now. I haven't really been paying attention to him until last week, when he swept a Challenger tournament as a massive underdog, winning 5 matches as an underdog and the finals as the favorite, very decent opposition as well. Crazy what home conditions can do sometimes and considering which guys he was losing to before that tournament happened.

He's a massive talent maybe.. I watched some of the match vs Lamasine.. I tried a punt on Lamasine, and Sinner was hitting exceptional shots.. The video was not real clear, and I'm uncertain of his strength and fitness level but he seems to be a shotmaker. The Italians are having a strong run in tennis right now with a very deep roster of talented players of all ages on the mens side... I have yet to determine the women, but I have seen quite a few on the rankings. 

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I'm not saying I think Fucsovics will win just that as much of a paradox as it might seem, the lesser player compared to Kohlschreiber and Verdasco in Fucsovics has a better chance of causing an upset win IMHO. Now I've said that Federer will probably click into gear and beat Fucsovics easily. That's betting for you :ok

Oh and Fucsovics needn't be spectacular to beat Federer - Just ask Millman. Nobody will ever convince me that Millman beat Federer. Federer beat Federer. What Millman did, and for which he deserves enormous credit, is hung in there. If Fucsovics can hang tough in the same way it's possible Federer could do the rest for him.

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I usually am on the side of betting against Federer, and I've lost before doing this a few times atleast.. Don't forget this is Federer's home.. He lives in Dubai if I remember correctly.. I think you will need a bigger effort than someone of Marton fucsovic's ability.. I am hoping Coric can pull it off in the next round, but I'm very uncertain of that now as well. 

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17 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Johanna Konta to beat Varvara Flink at 1.37 with Paddy Power

Not a fan of short odds, but this is an elite player against someone who's never been in the top 100, so I'll take what's on offer.

I'm a fan of anything that has a higher chance of happening than the price suggests and this was clearly a generous price, both in terms of the steam to SP and also the respective performances of Konta and Flink. Nice one :ok

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Gael Monfils to win ATP Dubai @ 6.00 Betfair Exchange

Borna Coric to win ATP Dubai @ 10.00 Betfred

I'm going to stick my neck on the block and oppose Federer to take the title in Dubai by backing Monfils from the top half of the draw and Coric from the bottom half. I'm backing Monfils as he's in great form and really should make the last four at least as Berankis is beatable, and I'm backing Coric because he's beaten Federer before and so should be able to perform if he meets him in the last four.

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8 hours ago, Torque said:

Gael Monfils to win ATP Dubai @ 6.00 Betfair Exchange

Borna Coric to win ATP Dubai @ 10.00 Betfred

I'm going to stick my neck on the block and oppose Federer to take the title in Dubai by backing Monfils from the top half of the draw and Coric from the bottom half. I'm backing Monfils as he's in great form and really should make the last four at least as Berankis is beatable, and I'm backing Coric because he's beaten Federer before and so should be able to perform if he meets him in the last four.

The "flying Georgian" might have something to say about that today... :)

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Sascha Zverev to beat (-1.5 sets) Alex de Minaur at 2.10 with Unibet

I don't know myself if this really is a good bet but Alex looked bad in the first match and I think he would have lost to Feli Lopez and Sascha is a player he lost to 3 times last season, twice in straight sets and I think it could acctually happen again here.

Edited by four-leaf

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Fucsovics to win a set against Federer at 2.75 with Bet365.

I don't want to go into detail about this bet because I have already explained how vulnerable Federer looks these days. He has lost his aura and everyone thinks that they have a shot at beating him. Fucsovic has a solid ground game and he will be ready to pounce if there is a dip in Federer's form. 

Hurkacz to win a set against Tsitsipas at 2.25 with Bet365.

I have to admit that I am not entirely confident about this bet. Hurkacz didn't have an answer to Tsitsipas's game in Marseille last week. I watched Hurkacz beat Nishikori and it was more of Nishikori mugging it around than Hurkacz actually earning the win, but I hope this win has given the Pole, the confidence to play well in the upcoming rounds. Tsitsipas has looked alright so far, I can see a bit of fatigue creeping in and this should give Hurkacz an opening to win a set. 

Basilashvili to beat Coric at 2.10 with Bet365.

I can see that the odds for Bash have come down now. Have been pretty impressed with Bash, he has played well after that horrific loss to Brands at Sofia. It is always a gamble with him because he is so aggressive and there's a chance that his game might unravel at the hands of Coric, who is a solid defender. But I am still going to back him considering the fact that Coric hasn't really been at his best in this tournament and the fast courts in Dubai should really suit Bash's game. 

 

 

 

 

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