Australian Open 2019

[opole]

Just now, CzechPunter said:

A good fight from Murray so far, emotional as hell as well. Can't complain about any of the results so far either!

I thought the same. Very good approach from Murray, if he can bring this to the fifth i think he might have a good chance to win. But nevertheless great effort.

[CzechPunter]

To be fair, I am a bit surprised by how few upsets there have been so far. Nothing REALLY major unless Murray wins or something else happens in these last few night matches.

[CzechPunter]

Diego Schwartzman (-1.5 sets) to beat Denis Kudla at 1.67 with Paddy Power

Kudla was pretty crap today, while DSS is back to some sort of form by the looks of things. He's the better player both technically and mentally. 

 

[opole]

B. Ellis/A. Popyrin @ 3.5 5dimes 4/10

Should be a solid bet. Ellis and Popyrin both big serving guys with good net game, they know each other from the juniors where they played together several matches. Schwartzman and Duran should be solid but not out of reach for the two young aussies. Don't like Schwartzman in doubles anyway, especially on hardcourt where he lacks a good serve and Duran only played one match outside clay in doubles in 2018, he had a good run at the end of the season in South America but overall his doubles record is based on clay tournaments on the Challenger circuit and we all know most of them are having pretty weak entry fields.

[CzechPunter]

Crazy from Murray, didn't see that coming! I mean, I wasn't even seriously considering betting on that match in any way, but I would've ruled out a five-setter straight away I guess.

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome @SmashingTip! Please do not make new threads and please do not use links, not worth the effort! Also, I don't see any actual tips being mentioned?

[vikki37]

Murray is unbelievable. He should feel proud even if he lost the match because he sure is playing very well considering his bad injury. 

[darko08]

I will be quickly.

Sam Querrey vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Over 3.5 Sets at 1.54 with 888

I think Sam is a little overrated here. Both players have a good serve, I expect a long match here.

Jeremy Chardy (-1,5 Sets) to beat Ugo Humbert at 2.02 with 888

Chardy did semifinal in Brisbane, beating Struff, Kyrgios, Uchiyama and finally lost against the winner of the tournament, Nishikori. Ugo looks good but he has no experience at this level.

Kei Nishikori (-2,5 Sets) + Naomi Osaka at 1.74 with 888

Nothing much to say here. Kei won in Brisbane. He’s playing well and he’s better than his opponent, by far. Osaka should win this comfortably too.

Destanee Aiava (+5,5 Games) to beat Madison Keys at 1.79 with 888

I expect a close match here, Aiava is only 18 years but she’s a big hitter with a brilliant future. Madison has not played any match since November, I expect Aiava to put some resistence here.

Simona Halep (-1,5 Sets) to beat Kaia Kanepi at 1.97 with 888

I know the risks of this one but Halep is the number 1 and Kaia has not played any match since the US Open. Halep had some back problems but she has played some matches recently at least.

Bianca Andreescu (-1,5 Sets) to beat Whitney Osuigwe at 1,74 with 888

2 players with a brilliant future but Andreescu now is in another level. She won against Kucova (6-0, 6-2), Jaime Fourlis (7-5, 6-1), Siegemund (3-6, 6-3, 6-3), Babos (6-4, 7-6), Wozniacki (6-4, 6-4), Venus Williams (6-7, 6-1, 6-3), Su Wei Hsieh (6-3, 6-3) and lost in the Final against Goerges in a 3 set match in Auckland.

Venus Williams (-1,5 Sets) to beat Mihaela Buzarnescu at 2.30 with 888

Buzarnescu has recently returned from an injury and she’s not getting good results so I expect a win by Venus in 2 sets. The last time Buzarnescu won a match was in August in the Canadian Masters (against Qiang Wang). Since then, she has lost against Svitolina, Sasnovich, Sasnovich again, Mandy Minella, Lesia Tsurenko and Bencic so she’s in a 6 losing streak.

I EDIT THIS POST TO ADD ANOTHER BET

Andreas Seppi to beat Jordan Thompson at 1.73 with William Hill

Seppi did so well in Sydney. He won against Chardy, Klizan, Tsitsipas and Schwartzman. He lost in the final against De Miñaur in a very close match (5-7, 6-7). In the first round has defeat Steve Johnson (6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3). Jordan Thompson is doing well but he has no experience at this level. He was lucky to face Feli, who is almost retired and didn’t had played any match since October.

Edited January 14, 2019 by darko08

[opole]

Ugo Humbert @ 2.50 Pinnacle 4/10

Can't say Chardy impressed me recently. His results are looking good but it's only the paper which looks good, in game he was playing inconsistent and moving slowly, his serve was working but apart from that he was pure average. Beating Struff and Kyrgios looks good on the paper but as we all know Struff is a headcase player and Kyrgios...yeah, Kyrgios is Kyrgios. A joke. He nearly lost to Uchiyama who is a Challenger player, the Japanese had match point in the third set but couldn't convert it and lost the tiebreaker. The match vs. Seppi was a mugfest where Chardy wasted a 5-2 lead in the first set losing 5-7 and also was broken four times, he looked mentally weak and i fully expect Humbert to beat the current versio of Chardy. Humbert is a huge prospect and i think he might have his breakthrough this year cracking into Top 50 soon as i think his complete package is a very good one with all the tools to be very, very successfull.

Edited January 14, 2019 by opole

[WinningTipster]

2 picks for Australian Open 2nd round matches

SCHWARTZMAN-5 GAMES HANDICAP KUDLA @ 1.6 pinnacle
Schwartzman is just a much more solid player who will force a lot of unforced errors from Kudla.

WOZNIACKI-LARSSON 2:0 SETS @ 1.46 unibet (1.44 betfair sportsbook)
Larsson was lucky to escape the 1st round match vs Lapko. Wozniacki is in a good form and is a defending champion, must be very motivated.

 

[Judeksi]

Just watched the highlights of Istomin-Federer match and at least on that video the court looks fairly slow to me. At least slower than a year ago. Is it just me or is this just because it was a night match?

[four-leaf]

So what do you all think of Benoit Paire apart from what has already been mentioned? I can win a huge load of money if Benoit doesn't lose by 6 games and takes atleast a set.

[four-leaf]

3 hours ago, darko08 said:

I will be quickly.

Sam Querrey vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert Over 3.5 Sets at 1.54 with 888

I think Sam is a little overrated here. Both players have a good serve, I expect a long match here.

Jeremy Chardy (-1,5 Sets) to beat Ugo Humbert at 2.02 with 888

Chardy did semifinal in Brisbane, beating Struff, Kyrgios, Uchiyama and finally lost against the winner of the tournament, Nishikori. Ugo looks good but he has no experience at this level.

Kei Nishikori (-2,5 Sets) + Naomi Osaka at 1.74 with 888

Nothing much to say here. Kei won in Brisbane. He’s playing well and he’s better than his opponent, by far. Osaka should win this comfortably too.

Destanee Aiava (+5,5 Games) to beat Madison Keys at 1.79 with 888

I expect a close match here, Aiava is only 18 years but she’s a big hitter with a brilliant future. Madison has not played any match since November, I expect Aiava to put some resistence here.

Simona Halep (-1,5 Sets) to beat Kaia Kanepi at 1.97 with 888

I know the risks of this one but Halep is the number 1 and Kaia has not played any match since the US Open. Halep had some back problems but she has played some matches recently at least.

Bianca Andreescu (-1,5 Sets) to beat Whitney Osuigwe at 1,74 with 888

2 players with a brilliant future but Andreescu now is in another level. She won against Kucova (6-0, 6-2), Jaime Fourlis (7-5, 6-1), Siegemund (3-6, 6-3, 6-3), Babos (6-4, 7-6), Wozniacki (6-4, 6-4), Venus Williams (6-7, 6-1, 6-3), Su Wei Hsieh (6-3, 6-3) and lost in the Final against Goerges in a 3 set match in Auckland.

Venus Williams (-1,5 Sets) to beat Mihaela Buzarnescu at 2.30 with 888

Buzarnescu has recently returned from an injury and she’s not getting good results so I expect a win by Venus in 2 sets. The last time Buzarnescu won a match was in August in the Canadian Masters (against Qiang Wang). Since then, she has lost against Svitolina, Sasnovich, Sasnovich again, Mandy Minella, Lesia Tsurenko and Bencic so she’s in a 6 losing streak.

I EDIT THIS POST TO ADD ANOTHER BET

Andreas Seppi to beat Jordan Thompson at 1.73 with William Hill

Seppi did so well in Sydney. He won against Chardy, Klizan, Tsitsipas and Schwartzman. He lost in the final against De Miñaur in a very close match (5-7, 6-7). In the first round has defeat Steve Johnson (6-4, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3). Jordan Thompson is doing well but he has no experience at this level. He was lucky to face Feli, who is almost retired and didn’t had played any match since October.

I think Whitney Osuigwe will take at least a set. It's a 50/50 matchup to me. Bianca looked good in Auckland but Whitney is at least as mutch talented as Bianca. You might get Venus correct though and Andreas Seppi should come in.

[opole]

5 minutes ago, Judeksi said:

Just watched the highlights of Istomin-Federer match and at least on that video the court looks fairly slow to me. At least slower than a year ago. Is it just me or is this just because it was a night match?

it was a night match as you already mentioned and at night the courts are usually slower. there were already a couple of matches played before Fed vs Istomin and obviously a court isn't playing the same after hours of play. i think Melbourne is the same surface as Hopman Cup and Perth was looking fast imo.

 

[four-leaf]

5 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

To be fair, I am a bit surprised by how few upsets there have been so far. Nothing REALLY major unless Murray wins or something else happens in these last few night matches.

Just wait and see the next batch of round 1 matches. There will come upsets like the potential ones of Bradley Klahn, Benoit Paire and maybe even Christian Garin.

[opole]

2 minutes ago, four-leaf said:

I think Whitney Osuigwe will take at least a set. It's a 50/50 matchup to me. Bianca looked good in Auckland but Whitney is at least as mutch talented as Bianca. You might get Venus correct though and Andreas Seppi should come in.

I don't think Osuigwe is ready to play on that level yet. Apart from those two tournaments at the end of the last season she has done nothing on that level. Andreescu is on a sick run right now and playing really well. Got this like 75/25 for Andreescu. But still i won't touch set handicaps on womens matches, can't see any value there.

[kingstarbr]

Laslo Djere to win against Evgeny Donskoy 1.78 with Pinnacle

I thought a lot about this game and I made the decision to bet on Djere, he has a very strong service and manages to play well at the bottom of the court. It will face Donskoy who has not yet presented any good result this year. Moreover the H2H shows Djere up front, so I'm confident in this bet.

[four-leaf]

On 2019-01-11 at 7:40 PM, four-leaf said:

Double acca

Christian Garin to beat David Goffin at 5.50

Steve Darcis +2.5 sets at 1.87

Total odds: 10.28 with Unibet

Christian is a player I rate about as high as Nicolas Jarry on hardcourt grass and clay and Nico Jarry is capable and Christian Garin have shown he can do some good stuff to. David kicked off his season with a loss to Ricardas Berankis and it didn't look good then and I have some problems backing a player like David on these fast hardcourt surfaces where he usually is in trouble and Davids form is not looking to hot either since quite some time now. @CzechPunter I didn't get any higher odds on Steve +2.5 sets but I'll take it anyway, Unibet had 1.97 earlier about 4 hours ago but I guess they found out it could be a pretty good bet.

 

On 2019-01-11 at 7:11 PM, four-leaf said:

Double acca

Zoe Hives to beat Bethanie Mattek Sands at 1.83

Benoit Paire +5.5 at 1.90

Total odds: 3.48 with Unibet 

@opole Zoe should be a great bet and Benoit can obviously lose this match with his mental state of mind that cost him so mutch over his career but I don't think Dominic Thiem is in any position to be a heavy favourite on fast hardcourt right now. He is not liking it down under and Benoit is good when he's on top of his game so this should be even enough for the bet to come in.

 

On 2019-01-11 at 8:22 PM, four-leaf said:

Treble parlay

Yoshito Nishioka to beat (-2.5 games) Tennys Sandgren at 2.05

Fernando Verdasco to beat Miomir Kecmanovic at 1.48

Benoit Paire to beat (+2.5 sets) Dominic Thiem at 1.48

Total odds: 4.49 with Unibet

I've already backed Tennys to win the Auckland final in straight sets and in first round of AO he faces Yoshi who is all that takes to end Tennys chances of defending his AO points. I think Yoshi is very good and should climb to top 50 this season. He may have his limits but I think he's a better player than Tennys and there's no guarantees he will have a great time in Melbourne like last year but there's more likely he goes out earlier now. Say he wins his first ATP title and then goes out in first round of the next tournament. It often happens and it's a quite big risk it might happen this time and if he does I think Yoshi can cover the spread.

My best posts so far for this week probably. Chris Garin and Benoit Paire and Steve Darcis might do the trick for me hopefully.

 

And now I will try the following...

Ernests Gulbis to beat Stan Wawrinka at 3.75 with local bookie

Ernest has been in good form since he reached the Stockholm open final and it's likely to continue here. Stan won his first round in US open and had a fairly good summer after coming back from injury but he hasn't looked good at the start of this season. I expect Ernests to get chances to find breaks more often than not and it could lead to a good upset. Stan is not really as good as he was before he got injured and it's still a long way back for him. Ernests was in decline for awhile but he's found his game again. My thought is that Ernests has big plans for this season, he wants to show what he can do again and then he's a very dangerous player.

[azoulai31]

Hello, @opole , what do you think are the most safe games today?

[CzechPunter]

Hi @kingstarbr and @azoulai31, good luck!

[opole]

14 minutes ago, azoulai31 said:

Hello, @opole , what do you think are the most safe games today?

I doubt there are really "safe" bets out there apart from Djokovic, Kohlschreiber or Nishikori with odds like 1.02 or 1.03. So i doubt this is profitable at all.

 

[azoulai31]

31 minutes ago, opole said:

Je doute qu'il y ait vraiment des paris "sûrs" en dehors de Djokovic, Kohlschreiber ou Nishikori avec des cotes comme 1.02 ou 1.03. Donc, je doute que cela soit rentable.

 

yes I know well but I wanted to say rather, what are the matches for you on which you have a good confidence. I would like to draw a rating of @ 2.
Thank you

[opole]

26 minutes ago, azoulai31 said:

yes I know well but I wanted to say rather, what are the matches for you on which you have a good confidence. I would like to draw a rating of @ 2.
Thank you

I am pretty confident that both Carreno-Busta and Marterer will reach the second round. Add Djokovic -2.5 sets and you might have the @ 2 

Edited January 14, 2019 by opole

[azoulai31]

4 minutes ago, opole said:

Je suis persuadé que Carreno-Busta et Marterer se qualifieront pour le second tour. Ajouter Djokovic -2,5 ensembles et vous pourriez avoir le @ 2

ah yes not bad at all, I had spotted some game like: Medvedev, Nishikori, Coric , Zverev, Pliskova and Andreescu.. What do you think ? 

PS: Sorry for my English because I am French

[CzechPunter]

Don't ever bet on six matches for combined odds of 2.00. Coric and Zverev are both potentially dangerous, for example, even though the odds for them look like certainties.

[opole]

Just now, azoulai31 said:

ah yes not bad at all, I had spotted some game like: Medvedev, Nishikori, Coric , Zverev, Pliskova and Andreescu.. What do you think ? 

PS: Sorry for my English because I am French

No problem, my english isn't that good either.

Medvedev: should win BUT his opponent is very dangerous and i think if Harris has a good day is striking the ball well he has a chance. I took the over .

Nishikori: should win clearly and comfortably

Coric: Not sure how much match rythm and practice he has, he might be rusty and Darcis looked good recently so i took Darcis +2.5 sets but in the end i think Coric should prevail but tricky matchup for sure.

Zverev: Odds on Bedene are raising and raising, might be a sign Zverev is feeling well and fine but obviously he had a tough last week picking up two minor injuries so you never know. Zverev isn't well known for his big results at Grand Slams...

Pliskova: should win comfortably (assume you talked about Karolina) 

Andreescu: should win comfortably too but i hate to take LOW odds on women as it's most of the time a very bad business haha

[azoulai31]

6 minutes ago, opole said:

Pas de problème, mon anglais n'est pas très bon non plus.

Medvedev: devrait gagner MAIS son adversaire est très dangereux et je pense que si Harris passe une bonne journée, il frappe bien le ballon, il a une chance. J'ai pris le dessus.

Nishikori: devrait gagner clairement et confortablement

Coric: Pas sûr du rythme et de la pratique du match, il est peut-être rouillé et Darcis avait l'air bien, alors j'ai pris Darcis +2.5 sets mais à la fin, je pense que Coric devrait l'emporter, mais le match est difficile.

Zverev: Les cotes sur Bedene sont en hausse, c'est peut-être un signe que Zverev se sent bien et en bien, mais il a visiblement eu des difficultés la semaine dernière à ramasser deux blessures mineures pour que vous ne sachiez jamais. Zverev n'est pas connu pour ses gros résultats au Grand Chelem ...

Pliskova: devrait gagner confortablement (supposons que vous avez parlé de Karolina) 

Andreescu: devrait gagner confortablement aussi, mais je n'aime pas prendre les cotes LOW sur les femmes car c'est la plupart du temps une très mauvaise affaire haha

thank you so much !
I do not really know what to play LOL, there are so many games ..

[four-leaf]

Marton Fucsovics to beat (-6.5) Albert Ramos Vinolas at 1.91 with Unibet

This is one match where the underdog doesn't really stand a chance. It's easily explained by the surface, the match is played early which means faster conditions and it doesn't suit Albert one bit. Marton destroyed Albert in Geneva last season on clay Alberts favourite surface. Albert is in decline and Marton has been on the rise ever since I don't know when but he's very good now and he won that Geneva title and he reached far last season in Aussie open. He really impressed in AO 2018 and didn't go out until he faced the one and only Roger. Albert Ramos has nothing to collect except a check here.

[four-leaf]

18 minutes ago, azoulai31 said:

thank you so much !
I do not really know what to play LOL, there are so many games ..

Nobody can help you here if you decide not to follow any of the tips already posted here... I would recommend Marton Fucsovics but it's up to you if you feel confident or not about it but I've done my best to convince.

Edited January 14, 2019 by four-leaf

[azoulai31]

Just now, four-leaf said:

Personne ne peut vous aider ici si vous décidez de ne pas suivre l'un des conseils déjà publiés ici ... Je recommanderais Marton Fucsovics, mais c'est à vous de décider si vous vous sentez confiant ou pas, mais j'ai fait de mon mieux pour convaincre .

thank you