Bubbles180

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8 hours ago, evertorial said:

Again excellent stuff bubbles.

I'm quite wary of taking early prices with bookies due to restrictions for these PL bets. If for example I split my stakes between three bookies for each horse. So for example £4 b365, £3 bv and £3 betfred for a total £10 stake per horse. Would you guys imagine that should allow me to get on without worry of restriction or closed accounts? 

It'll certainly keep you under the radar for a while but ultimately, they all restrict the accounts of +ROI accounts as they're not profitable to their business model. The only places you won't get restricted are the betting exchanges but you don't need to look at them until if/when your accounts get restricted by the bookies.

Regarding your bank size, at £10 a bet you would need an absolute minimum of £1000 to allow for the downswings. As stated above, a £690 loss has happened already and there could easily be bigger downswings in the future.

Edited by Birchy

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3 hours ago, Birchy said:

It'll certainly keep you under the radar for a while but ultimately, they all restrict the accounts of +ROI accounts as they're not profitable to their business model. The only places you won't get restricted are the betting exchanges but you don't need to look at them until if/when your accounts get restricted by the bookies.

Regarding your bank size, at £10 a bet you would need an absolute minimum of £1000 to allow for the downswings. As stated above, a £690 loss has happened already and there could easily be bigger downswings in the future.

Ok thanks for the feedback. I think it can be seen from the stats from bubbles that the majority of profit comes from 4/1 + selections. 

  I also think that it appears that it is very difficult long term for anyone to back all these selections everyday at £25 stakes or even £10 stakes with the bookies as the prices quoted are all early prices so they will instantly flag you up and when you see any profit they will shut you down. So it will be interesting to know what long term users have come up with regards to still finding a profit using these tips on the exchanges?

For example I looked at what prices are available today on the exchanges For the 4/1+ tips at around 10.30. A very small sample I know but smarkets have decent liquidity for all tips. 

I got the following

1.10 ayr  grand morning  quoted 4/1 smarkets 3/1

2.15 ayr too many chiefs q 15/2 s 8/1

2.30 plumpton king uther q 4/1 s 4/1

2.50 ayr buffalo bullet q9/2 s just under 9/2

4.10 plumpton astrum q5/1 s just under 11/1

4.35 Wolverhampton takeonefortheteam q7/1 s just under 10/1 

5.10 Wolverhampton cricklewood green q 9/2 s just under 8/1

7.40 Wolverhampton kylukkey q 8/1 s just under 5/1 

Postives: 

What I would take from this small sample is that generally prices here are better than those quoted and all are available on the exchanges. They even offer each way terms to back as well although I'm not sure these are as competitive as what the bookies can offer. Can anyone else advise on That?

Quite a few horses prices have increased significantly in odds so that means better prices to be taken.

 

Negatives: 

Exchanges don't have best odds guaranteed. It would be interesting to know what kind of roi these tips achieve between 4/1+ bets with best odds guaranteed not included. 

Kylukkey and grand morning have both dropped, kylukkey in particular has dropped quite a bit. 

 

Summary:

From today's small sample of tips 4+ it appears that all selections can be backed on the exchanges to beat original prices in some places but take lower prices with others.

With regards to making long term profit backing these selections at these prices it asks the question, are the horses that are lowering in price such as grand morning and kylukkey the horses where the value is made so therefore by taking the exchange prices we lose the real value? 

But the most important point would be, can money be made if backing all selections at these odds with no best odds guaranteed.

You have to remember if taking the early prices with bog you are getting the two horses who have now shortened at higher prices as well as getting all the drifters at their starting price. Undoubtedly this means that betting on the exchanges you will lose profit. However with a fantastic roi of around 15% For 4/1+ bets how much of thisprofit is actually lost?

Personally if I could still make 5-10% roi for free tips I would snatch your hand off any day of the week. 

 

 

 

Edited by evertorial

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What I tend to do is back them on Betfair and go for the price advised and keep in Running if the price is not available when bet placed, to date I have not had a price not matched either pre race or in Running, hope this helps, I also back them with bookies BOG and so far so good but keep stakes small and withdraw profit each month. I have been doing this since October 2017

Edited by Bubbles180

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25 minutes ago, Bubbles180 said:

What I tend to do is back them on Betfair and go for the price advised and keep in Running if the price is not available when bet placed, to date I have not had a price not matched either pre race or in Running, hope this helps, I also back them with bookies BOG and so far so good but keep stakes small and withdraw profit each month. I have been doing this since October 2017

How small stakes are you going with on your bookies accounts? I was thinking maybe if I do the following. 

Maximum £1 stake per bookie and remainder on exchange. 

So for example place 3 early bets with 3 bookies on a tip at 5/1 £1 each then place a £7 bet on the exchange to try to let run in play to meet advised price.

Surely a bookie wouldn't close an account that makes £1 bets would They?? 

Edited by evertorial

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TBH i start each month with £200 bank and bet at 0.5% of my bank increasing my stakes every £50 of profit made, then withdraw profit at end of month and start again, like you most of my bets are on Betfair were i start with a £1000 bank bet 0.5% per bet and increase stakes every £100 profit

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Had 2 winners and a 2nd from 3 runners so far today

13.10 Grand Morning 5.00 WON

14.15 Too Many Chiefs 8.50 WON

14.50 Buffalo Ballet 5.50 2nd 

3 runners tonight at wolv

16.35 Takeonefortheteam 8.00

17.10 Cricklewood Green 5.50

19.40 Kyllukey 9.00

Edited by Bubbles180

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35 minutes ago, evertorial said:

Hi Billy just a quick question. Do your results include best odds guaranteed.

Also are the odds advised in your results spreadsheet the original advised results or best odds guaranteed included? 

Thanks 

I've already asked this several times  (to the annoyance of billy). The prices published when the tips go up are the best prices available at the time if publishing, however the prices in the results spreadsheet DO include BOG. And before you ask, nobody seems to have the results at the original prices (ie without BOG).

I've backtested all of the results against Betfair SP (BSP) and they show a negative ROI, however I've not tested with any filters such as 4/1 or greater. I place all my bets on Betfair, however I joined mid-December which was probably the worst possible time to start backing the tips as it was the first ever losing month. Just my luck. :loon

I also believe that I have been losing value because I've been asking for the published prices + 5% to allow for commission and have lost nearly £400 to £2 stakes, so the lack of BOG seems to be costing me dearly. So much so that I'm actually tempted to start LAYING the tips instead because my ROI backing is -21%, which coincidentally is also about the same % as the average bookies overround.

Edited by Birchy

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48 minutes ago, Birchy said:

I've already asked this several times  (to the annoyance of billy). The prices published when the tips go up are the best prices available at the time if publishing, however the prices in the results spreadsheet DO include BOG. And before you ask, nobody seems to have the results at the original prices (ie without BOG).

I've backtested all of the results against Betfair SP (BSP) and they show a negative ROI, however I've not tested with any filters such as 4/1 or greater. I place all my bets on Betfair, however I joined mid-December which was probably the worst possible time to start backing the tips as it was the first ever losing month. Just my luck. :loon

I also believe that I have been losing value because I've been asking for the published prices + 5% to allow for commission and have lost nearly £400 to £2 stakes, so the lack of BOG seems to be costing me dearly. So much so that I'm actually tempted to start LAYING the tips instead because my ROI backing is -21%, which coincidentally is also about the same % as the average bookies overround.

Thanks for this. 

That was my fear, I feel that without BOG it's unlikely that this will be making profit even with the 4/1 + tips and if it does it would be minimal. 

I may be wrong but the frequency bog is applied to these bets is very high and your talking 2 points here 4 points there with bog. Let's imagine there's an average of 2 points applied a day for bog profits (just hypothetically). That's around 730 points a year. Based on £25 stakes that makes £18000 a year.

Of course that's just an estimation but it's fairly significant

It may not be 2 points a day that might be wide of the mark but just trying to get an idea of the difference bog makes 

Edited by evertorial

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7 hours ago, Bubbles180 said:

What I tend to do is back them on Betfair and go for the price advised

Is the advised price the bookies price when the tips are published? Is that showing a profit for you? Also, do you back ALL of the tips or do you use some filters?

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On 12/1/2018 at 11:00 PM, BillyHills said:

The Dingo has put a lot of effort into his table just further up the page which points out the most profitable courses. 

I have a thread which just backs the Tips on my top 10 recommended tracks

 

The 'handicaps on turf' just means any handicap race over the jumps which are all run on the turf as opposed to some flat races which are run on an artificial surface.

For example on tomorrows Kempton card which is over jumps I would only bet in the 1.30, 2.40, 3.15 and 3.45:ok

 

Screen Shot 2018-01-12 at 22.58.59.png

Sorry for seeming so brainless. I have tried to Google but still a bit unsure. Is it any race with the word Handicap means it's a jumping race? Or is it the word hurdle means jumping race? Is chase just flat races? Thank you in advanced. 

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4 hours ago, vikki37 said:

Sorry for seeming so brainless. I have tried to Google but still a bit unsure. Is it any race with the word Handicap means it's a jumping race? Or is it the word hurdle means jumping race? Is chase just flat races? Thank you in advanced. 

No a handicap race can be any type of racing,flat,hurdles and fences(chases).A handicap race means that all the horses in one race are given a weight so that theoretically they all finish at the same time given a perfect race.

https://gg.co.uk/racing/today

If you click that link above it describes the kind of race it is,the first race at Hereford is a maiden and all the horses except the last one run off the same weight,the bottom on is a filly so she carries less weight as she can't run as fast as the lads.

When they run more than 3 races they are then given a rating which the handicapper uses to allocate weights to the horses in handicap races. Of course they are nearly always wrong and it's up to punters to find the horses which are then well handicapped so they carry less weight.

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4 hours ago, vikki37 said:

Sorry for seeming so brainless. I have tried to Google but still a bit unsure. Is it any race with the word Handicap means it's a jumping race? Or is it the word hurdle means jumping race? Is chase just flat races? Thank you in advanced. 

Handicap is a race where all horses have to carry a weight based on their ability, so the best horses carry the most weight. The basic idea is to try and level the playing field so that theoretically, all the horses have an equal chance. The handicap system applies to both flat and jumps racing. The race title will always contain the word "handicap" if it's a handicap race.

Jumps races usually contain the word "chase" or "hurdle". Chases are over big fences and hurdles are over small fences. The race distance is a good indicator as well - If all the races are 2 miles are more, then it's highly likely to be a jumps meeting. It is very rare that a race meeting is jumps AND flat on the same day.

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1 hour ago, Birchy said:

Handicap is a race where all horses have to carry a weight based on their ability, so the best horses carry the most weight. The basic idea is to try and level the playing field so that theoretically, all the horses have an equal chance. The handicap system applies to both flat and jumps racing. The race title will always contain the word "handicap" if it's a handicap race.

Jumps races usually contain the word "chase" or "hurdle". Chases are over big fences and hurdles are over small fences. The race distance is a good indicator as well - If all the races are 2 miles are more, then it's highly likely to be a jumps meeting. It is very rare that a race meeting is jumps AND flat on the same day.

Thank you very much to both of you for the detailed explanations! I've noticed that there is a rare meeting today with jumps and the last race is a flat? Hereford? Hope I understood right. 

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2 minutes ago, vikki37 said:

Thank you very much to both of you for the detailed explanations! I've noticed that there is a rare meeting today with jumps and the last race is a flat? Hereford? Hope I understood right. 

Yes the last race is on the flat but it's for national hunt bred horses that are having their beginner runs to introduce them to hurdle/chase environment and not much to do with genuine flat bred horses,good question like.

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