French Open 2017

[CzechPunter]

Also this...

[CzechPunter]

Elias and Struff just outright disgraces. Awful.

[CzechPunter]

@ogii55 at it again! 

[ogii55]

3 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

@ogii55 at it again! 

Just have a day  I am wondering to push heavy on Errani vs Mladenovic. What is your opinion on that match?

[four-leaf]

Jelena Ostapenko to beat (-1.5 sets) Monica Puig at 2.37 with bet365

Jelena is very good actually and I think this might be one of her rollovers where she just steamrolls her opponent. Monica wasn't good at all against Roberta Vinci in her first match while Jelena was tested a bit against Louisa Chirico. But what I'm thinking about this match is: Can it be a blowout by Jelena like last year in Rome? She beat Monica by 6-1 6-1 then. She could have it easy again.

[CzechPunter]

23 minutes ago, ogii55 said:

Just have a day  I am wondering to push heavy on Errani vs Mladenovic. What is your opinion on that match?

You are asking me? It's me who needs some guidance!

Seriously, though - I wouldn't go heavy on it, but there's definitely value in the odds. If Mladenovic plays like she did against Brady, Errani will definitely win.

[ogii55]

Just now, CzechPunter said:

You are asking me? It's me who needs some guidance!

Seriously, though - I wouldn't go heavy on it, but there's definitely value in the odds. If Mladenovic plays like she did against Brady, Errani will definitely win.

You are a legend in tennis punting so your opinion always brings huge value and interesting point of view. I didn't watch the match with Brady, who is awful on clay. I hope that Mladenovic could be exhausted from her late April and early May. However she seems to cut down her doubles matches in order to concentrate in signle and the result is here - Top 15 in single. Is anyone watched Errani vs Doi? How she played?

[CzechPunter]

58 minutes ago, ogii55 said:

You are a legend in tennis punting so your opinion always brings huge value and interesting point of view. I didn't watch the match with Brady, who is awful on clay. I hope that Mladenovic could be exhausted from her late April and early May. However she seems to cut down her doubles matches in order to concentrate in signle and the result is here - Top 15 in single. Is anyone watched Errani vs Doi? How she played?

Thanks for the kind words, but you're the in-form man here ;). Brady didn't lose it because she's awful on clay btw, she lost it because she couldn't handle the pressure. Errani should be much better in that regard, but, if Mladenovic isn't injured anymore, she could easily blow her off the court.

[liquidglass]

1 hour ago, ogii55 said:

You are a legend in tennis punting so your opinion always brings huge value and interesting point of view. I didn't watch the match with Brady, who is awful on clay. I hope that Mladenovic could be exhausted from her late April and early May. However she seems to cut down her doubles matches in order to concentrate in signle and the result is here - Top 15 in single. Is anyone watched Errani vs Doi? How she played?

Firstly, let me correct a point you made about Brady being horrible on clay. That really is what I call an unsubstantiated sweeping statement. Granted you might be cheesed off with the way she lost to Mladenovic, but that is tennis. It was a big pressure match worsened by playing an injured player. Brady never shies away from clay as some players do that show a disliking for the red dirt. She plays a whole lot of matches on clay even going to South America to play tournaments on clay. On clay She has beaten the likes of Mertens, Rogers, Haddad Maia, Sakkari, Krunic and many decent others.

Mladenovic should really have had authentic claims to this year's French open crown aside a few worries. She has played too much tennis prior to this tournament . However she seems a different calibre of player with regards to mental toughness and fitness. Sometimes it has to require an element of luck to help one reach a title. The question is can she recover from that last physical exertion, hybernate and re-energise herself? It is not outside the realms of possibility. I am not going to count her out just yet. I have noticed from experience that knowledge of a players injury or tiredness can really be a distraction to the punter. Errani is in good form too. The fear is that her game could get swallowed up by the big game of Kiki if she come out firing. Best advice to bet in play. Mladenovic wins hands down on first glimpse of good body language!!!!

Edited May 30, 2017 by liquidglass

[liquidglass]

Bonzi vs Ramos Vinolas

I just could not believe what I was seeing when I saw the odds for this match. It became apparent to me that the odds-generating computer device for the bookies must be dysfunctional. Let me first say a bit about Bonzi. Bonzi has won 13 from his last fourteen matches, and please do not ask me against who? A win is a win and a good confidence builder. On the way to the penultimate tournament before the french open, he beat Munoz-De La Nava 6-3  7-6 one I can boldly refer to as decent opposition. He beat Smyczek 6-2 6-2, beat Polansky 7-5  6-3 and beat Lajovic 6-1 6-1. He beat everyone in easy straight sets till he lost to Silva Dutra from a disintrest in the match because I watched that match.

He beat Medvedev in the first round, Medvedev's surprise retirement not really detracting from the form of this Bonzi guy. Ramos has lost five from his last 6 and has already played way too much tennis to be considered fresh. The tournament organisers as usual have given it a prime time slot and I believe it should live up to the hype.

I believe Bonzi can win a set at the very least 2/1. But as usual with a partisan home crowd on his side I am going total Bonzi games over 9.5   4/6. Good luck guys!!!!

 

[owenclass]

Day four

 

Aljaz Bedene to beat Jiri Vesely 4/5 paddy power

I fancy this to go to five sets with Bedene winning in the end as i think he is the better player on clay

Edited May 31, 2017 by owenclass

[four-leaf]

Richel Hogenkamp to beat Elise Mertens at 2.00 with bet365

Richel comes into RG with a small tournament win in Tunis on clay. Her best surface seems to be clay and she did well to qualify for the main draw and she's got every chance of picking up a win here in this tournament. They've never faced so I guess I'm throwing myself into the unknown here but I got to try Richel and see where she takes me.

Edited May 31, 2017 by four-leaf

[liquidglass]

1 hour ago, losingpunter said:

mladenovic was poor extremely poor. serena would have defeated her 6-1, 6-2 in this form.

Well, it will depend on where you are judging poor from. Any injured player will naturally be poor. So under the circumstances she played a big match playing some key points with maximum bottle. It is also because we know that the "poor" you have used to describe that performance is not relative to her current form that we are discussing her now with suspicion. Let sleeping dogs lie!!!!

[ogii55]

9 hours ago, liquidglass said:

Firstly, let me correct a point you made about Brady being horrible on clay. That really is what I call an unsubstantiated sweeping statement. Granted you might be cheesed off with the way she lost to Mladenovic, but that is tennis. It was a big pressure match worsened by playing an injured player. Brady never shies away from clay as some players do that show a disliking for the red dirt. She plays a whole lot of matches on clay even going to South America to play tournaments on clay. On clay She has beaten the likes of Mertens, Rogers, Haddad Maia, Sakkari, Krunic and many decent others.

Mladenovic should really have had authentic claims to this year's French open crown aside a few worries. She has played too much tennis prior to this tournament . However she seems a different calibre of player with regards to mental toughness and fitness. Sometimes it has to require an element of luck to help one reach a title. The question is can she recover from that last physical exertion, hybernate and re-energise herself? It is not outside the realms of possibility. I am not going to count her out just yet. I have noticed from experience that knowledge of a players injury or tiredness can really be a distraction to the punter. Errani is in good form too. The fear is that her game could get swallowed up by the big game of Kiki if she come out firing. Best advice to bet in play. Mladenovic wins hands down on first glimpse of good body language!!!!

Thanks for the opinion. Such injury is very tough to be healed for less than 48 hours. When you are moving and the Adrenalin is rushing, you can't feel it too much. The problem comes on the next day. Maybe you are right about the body language. It's also possible that Mladenovic to start the match and if she sees that couldn't finish fast with Errani and the Italian is having an edge, just to quit in the first set. We will see

[liquidglass]

5 minutes ago, ogii55 said:

Thanks for the opinion. Such injury is very tough to be healed for less than 48 hours. When you are moving and the Adrenalin is rushing, you can't feel it too much. The problem comes on the next day. Maybe you are right about the body language. It's also possible that Mladenovic to start the match and if she sees that couldn't finish fast with Errani and the Italian is having an edge, just to quit in the first set. We will see

I agree with you on how she could possibly feel less than 2 days after injury. I just feel she will come out today in much better physical shape than last time. Knowing what a determined young woman she is, the last thing she will be thinking of is pulling out after grinding out that last win. Simply put, Mladenovic in her position as current darling of french tennis, will never quit a grand slam at home. She will go down fighting!!

[NoFear]

3 hours ago, losingpunter said:

even a fit mladenovic can't do wonders to this tournament. she is way too awful. she hits the nets after every 2-3 points. no consistency at all in her play. given your pathetic form this year please dont give recommendations like this

Form is temporary. Class is permanent. Can we pls discuss stuff without being rude?

Edited May 31, 2017 by NoFear

[CzechPunter]

@NoFear Cheers mate. Thankfully, I'm not from the snowflake generation .

[Guest]

Why do you even bother betting on a match with such uncertanty around!?  Seriously, why?

There are 40 other matches played today, or even more...

Bedene to beat Vesely 1,80 bet365

I jist feel lik he is a better player right now

Edited May 31, 2017 by Guest

[CzechPunter]

As if there were any certain matches .

[Guest]

Hehe, not certain, but less uncertain

[ogii55]

Johnson - Coric 2.72 Matchbook

 

Johnson is playing his best season on clay. He is 7:1, winning in Houston. He played 5-sets against Sugita, but it was kind of warm up match for him. He dominated during the entire encounter. Coric started with easy win against total outsider. He is game, but could have some tough moments with power play of Johnson. I think here the odds must be close to even.

 

Errani's odds are already dropping below 2.75, starting from 3 yesterday. I will stay away from this match. Made a try since yesterday to match a bet at 3.20, but failled to do so.

[vikki37]

6 hours ago, losingpunter said:

even a fit mladenovic can't do wonders to this tournament. she is way too awful. she hits the nets after every 2-3 points. no consistency at all in her play. given your pathetic form this year please dont give recommendations like this

We all have our winning times and losing times. It's not called pathetic form. CzechPunter always tries his best to give his analysis, opinions and predictions. One should appreciate rather than treading on people's wounds or saying mean, rude things just because they are not on a winning streak! Nobody is perfect. 

[radicaly]

Good to be back!
Roland Garros is not really doing well for the French players so far. Too bad as I'm French...! And my 2nd pick is not going to help this trend!

My picks for today:

V. Williams vs. Nara: Nara +5,5 Handicap 2,2 @pinnacle

I find the handicap very high as Williams is not going to win so easily IMO. If you check her recent results, she's not like her sister trashing her opponents 1/2 or 2/2 in 2 sets. She waits for the good timing to do the break during the set, and it's done. The 2 tournaments on clay that she played so far havent been so easy and her first round on Sunday lasted 1 hours and 40 minutes.
Nara is definitely not a strong opponent but she's always fighting hard, even more on a 2nd round of GS. Hopefully, she will cover the HDC.

Pouille vs. Bellucci: Bellucci +5,5 1,9 @Pinnacle
Bellucci is in a pretty good form with 2 good tournaments in Roma and Madrid losing tight games against Cuevas and Goffin.
On the other hand, Pouille is not in a good run since 1 month. He lost in the first round these 2 tournaments mentioned above against Herbert & Querrey... For his first round in RG, he beat Benneteau in 5 sets who had a Wild Card...
If we talk about current form, there is no comparison. If you talk about experience, there is no comparison as well.
Mentally, Pouille is really strong and should be supported by all the Home fans. That's his main asset today but he will also have a lot of pressure.
As a reminder, he lost on the 2nd round last year in RG in 3 sets to Andrej Martin...! 

Over is another possibility as I expect at least 4 sets.

Good luck to all,

Edited May 31, 2017 by radicaly
mistake in odds

[CzechPunter]

 back @radicaly and good luck!

Cheers @vikki37!

[CzechPunter]

Considering quite a few plays for tomorrow. Did anyone also feel that Gasquet looked poor against De Greef physically?

[CzechPunter]

6 minutes ago, losingpunter said:

I know that nobody is perfect but he banned me from this thread during the australian open for no reason. so i am sorry i cannot be so kind to him. he may be the best punter on this forum but no public forum bans people without a reason

At least get the facts straight. It wasn't during the Australian Open, it was on February 11. And it most certainly wasn't for no reason, everyone can check the relevant threads and see that. Case closed from my side though, let's focus on Paris. Happy that Kvitova lost, just need Wozniacki to beat Abanda now. Muguruza losing would also be of considerable help.

[vikki37]

43 minutes ago, losingpunter said:

I know that nobody is perfect but he banned me from this thread during the australian open for no reason. so i am sorry i cannot be so kind to him. he may be the best punter on this forum but no public forum bans people without a reason

I am on here everyday for years and I knew what happened and why you got banned. Anyway, I don't want to be irrelevant on this topic anymore. Good luck with your bets on the French Open. 

[NoFear]

4 minutes ago, losingpunter said:

sometimes I feel is there some match fixing going on in women's tennis.

what made you think that, mate?

Edited May 31, 2017 by NoFear

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Back Nick Kyrgios (-1.5 sets) to beat Kevin Anderson at 1.82 with Unibet

If Kyrgios plays like he did against Kohli, he's going to crush Anderson, but this line allows even for a somewhat worse performance by the Australian. In any case, Anderson hasn't been anywhere near his best since coming back to the tour and this isn't a favourable match-up for him by any stretch of imagination. 

Back V.Estrella/R.Gasquet - Over 3.5 sets at 2.50 with Bet365

Gasquet seemed to be struggling physically against De Greef in the first round and things aren't going to get any easier here, with Estrella trying to find his Cinderella story form again. What a comeback against Gabashvili and what a heart that guy has - he's going to give it his absolute best and, if Gasquet isn't in top shape, he's going to face some stern resistance. And let's face it - Gasquet has been a shadow of his former self over the last few months.

Back Tsvetana Pironkova (+1.5 sets) to beat Elina Svitolina at 3.25 with Unibet

Pirnkova has always been dangerous during the big events and she was majestic against Barthel, so I can see her getting something against Svitolina as well. The Ukrainian usually gets the job done in the end, but she can have chunks of bad games in her matches and those aren't going to go unpunished if Pironkova goes for her shots.

Back T.Monteiro/G.Monfils - Over 3.5 sets at 2.25 with Bet365

50/50, so 2.25 is value. Brown wasn't all that far from taking a set off Monfils, both players were just clowning around as expected. Monteiro should be a trickier customer even despite that epic he had to play in round one, that should strengthen him if anything.