French Open 2017

[four-leaf]

11 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

A short day today, Lucic was the funny result, otherwise no big surprises. If Sugita gets the comeback done tomorrow, however, that would be something.

Trungelitti got his comeback done so we've already had one big comeback but Sugita would ofcourse be a bigger one.

[liquidglass]

Hamou vs Cuevas

I was quite surprised by the results of yesterday's games where I really expected a bit more resistance from the players that I backed against.....but surprisingly they let me get my stash without even the slightest glimpse of a nervous moment in sight, Apart from Bonzi, my main pick on the forum, Makarova, Dodin and Tommy Boredo all conspired with me to rape the bookies. hahaha!

I am spoilt for choice today with so many good picks with all more than decent chances of doing what I expect them to do. As I will never post more than one or two, I have chosen this game as one to write about. 

Seriously speaking, Cuevas should murder Hamou period. Total mismatch in my opinion. Perhaps that is why this is the FA Cup of tennis with all the thrills and excitement expected from the unknown. I have used my system again in analysing this matchup. Quite interesting findings I will say. I always like putting my system to the litmus test especially in situations like these. It is what I am all about in all honesty.

First principle in gambling - a winner is a winner regardless. Hamou comes here with a whole lot of matches on clay under his belt and I mean a lot - plus winning all three matches of the qualifying series in straight sets. And yes, I said it, you do not have to know who he beat. A winner is a winner.

Cuevas on the other hand has played a lot of high quality tennis recently and had some good results too. However he has only won one from his last three.

Odds movement from opening to current clearly backs a good Hamou showing with margin to chose from different markets where you want to make your profits from, Also the organizers of this tournament surely know what they are doing in putting this match in the prime time slot plus the voiciferous home support expected. Hamou's hard face in one look depicts determination and I will take my chances on the evidence already in view. With an investment mind in play the pick is over 29.5 games, even though I clearly expect Hamou to do considerably more, Good luck all !!!!!

Edited May 29, 2017 by liquidglass

[ElPrincipito007]

Made a lot of bets, but an odd that espiacially catched my eyes is Estrella Burgos @2,69

Don't know what makes Gabashvili such a big favorite here. For me it is at least 50-50. Gabashvili made it through the qualy's but everytime he needed three sets. Estrella Burgos does have some difficulties lately, but overall he is a very decent clay player. Definitely worth a try at these odds.

[CzechPunter]

Mladenovic with a back injury, not what I wanted to see. Meanwhile, Paire really should have won the second set, but no luck there. Big day tomorrow and I've got too many bets already, so I'm probably not going to add anything.

[delfino]

I am impressed by the Goffin! Not only today against a veteran player, but generally looks ready for something big here

lets see....

[CzechPunter]

His skills have never been an issue. His mental fortitude, on the other hand...

[CzechPunter]

Mladenovic won somehow in the end, but it wouldn't surprise me to see her lose in the next round against...I think Errani. Leaving the quarter bet alone, but I'll be shocked if it wins. Meanwhile, watching Ferrer against Young is just pure pain - I loved that guy ffs!

Edit: And if Verdasco wins 3-0 over Zverev, jeez.

[ElPrincipito007]

7 hours ago, ElPrincipito007 said:

Made a lot of bets, but an odd that espiacially catched my eyes is Estrella Burgos @2,69

Don't know what makes Gabashvili such a big favorite here. For me it is at least 50-50. Gabashvili made it through the qualy's but everytime he needed three sets. Estrella Burgos does have some difficulties lately, but overall he is a very decent clay player. Definitely worth a try at these odds.

Well that was close. 6 out of 7 today and almost break-even this season. Happy there still are GS to make some profit.

[CzechPunter]

You could've posted those bets, you know. 

[NoFear]

Stefano Napolitano v Diego Schwartzman

Taking Stefano to beat diego at juicy 5/1 marathon. Napolitano beat zverev 3:1 today where as diego struggled to beat his opponent who was ranked 100+ just like stefano. And if stefano can do what he did today, those are good odds to get on early. 

 

Edited May 29, 2017 by NoFear

[CzechPunter]

3 minutes ago, NoFear said:

Stefano Napolitano v Diego Schwartzman

Taking Stefano to beat diego at juicy 5/1 marathon. Napolitano beat zverev 3:1 today where as diego struggled to beat his opponent who was ranked 100+ just like stefano. And if stefano can do what he did today, those are good odds to get on early. 

 

Might actually oppose you there, but I'll see what the handicap lines are. Rublev has weapons, not so sure about Napolitano.

[ElPrincipito007]

18 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

You could've posted those bets, you know. 

I don't have the time to give an explanation everytime, otherwise I would.

I don't see much value tomorrow. I have little bets on Querrey @1,79 and Bodarenko @2,79. I really like the odds on the second one. Okay, she has terrible results this year, but Martic herself isn't superwoman too.

[four-leaf]

Hyeon Chung to beat Sam Querrey at 2.12 with Pinnaclesports

Got to take Hyeon here. He's proven himself against the best lately on clay. Sam Querrey should have a hard time here as clay is not where he usually does his best. Sam can play on clay no doubt about that but I just think Hyeon is so good right now except when facing someone like Berdych who he lost against in Lyon in straight sets. Anyway Hyeon is dangerous and Sam should beware of the danger that lies ahead of him.

Philipp Kohlschreiber to beat Nick Kyrgios at 2.57 with Pinnaclesports

I think Philipp can do some damage tomorrow. He's got what it takes to take out Nick who is not at his best on clay. Nick is probably mostly waiting for the grass season to begin and feels that clay is just something to get over with quickly. Have chosen Pinnaclesports in case of retirement by Nick.

[owenclass]

Day three

 

Johanna Konta vs Su Wei Hsieh

Over 17.5 games 8/11 paddy power

So Konta makes her first appearance at this years French Open and has not had the best of clay court seasons. So she might struggle against her opponent especially in the first set

 

Andy Murray vs Andrey Kuznetsov

Over 32.5 games 8/11 paddy power

Well Murray is not having the best of clay court seasons and is going into this French open with no real form and could struggle against his opponent who is a good player and who can play on this surface. So expect Murray to lose one set

Edited May 30, 2017 by owenclass

[Guest]

I am still thinking how "badly" Mladenovic is injured... I got Bertens to reach semis, but I am thinking about taking her to reach the finals at 13... Semis for her against -> Mladenovic injured, Muguruza in not so great form, never forget about Venus bit not on clay, Cibulkova?

Kuznetsova in fourth round will be her tohoughest opponent I guess

[CzechPunter]

Kuznetsova looked pretty poor against McHale, but she can obviously pick herself up, she's got the experience to do so. Didn't see Bertens against Tomljanovic, so don't know anything there. Mladenovic was just poor, Brady should've won, but didn't have the nerves to do so. If she comes through Errani, however, anything can happen. It's just wide open.

[ogii55]

One from me

Pironkova - Barthel 6,2 Matchbook (6.4 Betfair, 5.91 Pinncle)

Pironkova is in awful form this season, but she never been a constant player. Here she must fight for every single point, because last year she reached a 1/4-final. If she faills in the first round, she will be out of Top 100. Bartel showed amazing form in clay so far, but she never had a success in RG. She participated here 6 times and lost 4 times in the first round.

 

 

 

[neilovan]

17 hours ago, delfino said:

I am impressed by the Goffin! Not only today against a veteran player, but generally looks ready for something big here

lets see....

It was a very impressive win. He is definitely underrated, and seems to be the right shape to get around well on the clay. 2 2 2 is a crunching easy win.

[neilovan]

Two matches I like today.

I think Verdasco has a decent chance in a 3 set sprint against Zverev at 3.5

I also fancy Philipp Kolschrieber against  Kyrigos

[CzechPunter]

A fabulous shout @ogii55! Business as usual (for this year) for me, with Cornet and Konta doing their best to lose from completely winning positions (Cornet even had a MP in the second set) and Berlocq/Pella not bothered at all.

Konta really is a special case though, the biggest upset in this year's Grand Slams so far? I mean Hsieh was losing against the likes of Reix, Brescia, and Aiava before this.

[neilovan]

59 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

A fabulous shout @ogii55! Business as usual (for this year) for me, with Cornet and Konta doing their best to lose from completely winning positions (Cornet even had a MP in the second set) and Berlocq/Pella not bothered at all.

Konta really is a special case though, the biggest upset in this year's Grand Slams so far? I mean Hsieh was losing against the likes of Reix, Brescia, and Aiava before this.

Such a strange match. I remember as a junior playing in an under 16 tournament. I won the first 17 points of a match. 4-0 15 love. My opponent hits a net cord, it rolls along the net for 2 meters and drops over. The guy never missed another shot. Beat me 6-4 6-0. Konta relaxed completely after 1st set, and the momentum went away.

Been on crutches for 2 weeks after tearing my achilles (playing tennis in running shoes, moron).

I was expecting closer in the Kyrigos match. Maybe I bet against him, because I can't stand that hole

Edited May 30, 2017 by neilovan

[ElPrincipito007]

And don't forget: it's women tennis. Level is really poor nowadays.

I really like Kyrgios, despite everything

[CzechPunter]

I don't particularly like him, but he was fabulous today, nothing Kohli could've done against that.

@neilovan Everyone who's ever played some sports has a story like that, but these are professionals (top 10 even) and Konta's biggest improvement over the last two years came on the mental side, so it's shocking to see her fall apart like this against, well, a slightly above-the-average player. Then again, "shocking" is what I would call the entire 2017 season so far.

[CzechPunter]

Btw, good luck to the French Open getting this done today . I get what they were thinking, but if Verdasco/Zverev goes to five, there's no way this can all get completed on one court. 

[Simeon Borisof]

It's true that Ferrer has 7-0 record against Lopez on clay but given his age,form and performance from yesterday(who watched it will tell you that it was sad to see a legend ''dying''.He was struggling against Young who really shouldn't have troubled him at all).In all fairness ,i didn't watch Lopez but he won 3:0 and his stats suggest he was decent and never in doubt actually.Odds against on Lopez does look appealing to me here because they are based only on the H2H between these two,not on current form + everything else speaks on the contrary.Lopez @ 2.20 with bet36

[ogii55]

Paquet - Kr. Pliskova 7.00 at Boyles

Pliskova hates clay. This is her worst surface. I can't understand why she is so big favorite. It's true that she improved a lot in the last 12 months, even in red courts, but such odds. Kristina appeared six times in Rolan Garros and never won a match here... Paquet is nothing special, but she is home player, who is playing mainly on clay. The only thing she needs is a bad day for Pliskova, who is relying to much on her power serve and forehand. The French girl was compeative against in form Barty and Koulichkova. She is capable of scoring some surprise wins and had a decent value for such odds.

[Guest]

I think we are all impressed by Goffin I would like to point out that he had 12 aces on clay court! He is serving so good for his height...

Edited May 30, 2017 by Guest

[four-leaf]

Cagla Buyukakcay to beat Shelby Rogers at 4.50 with bet365

Shelby went far in last years RG so she's got lots of points to defend. She reached the quarters in RG 2016 where she lost to Garbiñe Muguruza in straight sets. Cagla picked up some mutch needed experience last year winning her first title and winning her first match in RG main draw. She stopped at Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova where she lost in three sets. It was a major breakthrough for her and I think she may have more in the tank this time around. Cagla can play very good on clay and Shelby Rogers have no greater form and she's beatable.  

[Guest]

1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

Cagla Buyukakcay to beat Shelby Rogers at 4.50 with bet365

Shelby went far in last years RG so she's got lots of points to defend. She reached the quarters in RG 2016 where she lost to Garbiñe Muguruza in straight sets. Cagla picked up some mutch needed experience last year winning her first title and winning her first match in RG main draw. She stopped at Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova where she lost in three sets. It was a major breakthrough for her and I think she may have more in the tank this time around. Cagla can play very good on clay and Shelby Rogers have no greater form and she's beatable.  

Great pick, I'm defnitely following!

[CzechPunter]

Back D.Thiem/S.Bolelli - Over 3.5 sets at 3.00 with Bet365

It's impossible to see past Thiem here, but the price for Bolelli to win a set is just too good imo. He's still quite good on clay and he's got a lot of momentum on his side given that he's already won four matches in Paris, so I expect him to put up some resistance. I'd also much rather be on this bet than on, say, the Over 30 Games bet at 1.90 or so.