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Midweek > Feb 28th - 2nd Mar


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A packed midweek fixture schedule in La Liga. Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Sevilla are all at home. Back all three to win and you can get odds of 1.97. Not a huge amount but given all three are heavy favourites that's not a terrible return.

@Pep004, always interested to hear your thoughts on the Spanish league games. What are you thinking here?

@Icongene, a positive weekend for you. Fancy building on it with some midweek betting on these games?

@DrBetter, choosing Sevilla was a good choice. Valencia showing their inconsistency again. What do you think this week?

@betcatalog, I think that Las Palmas and Real Sociedad BTTS fail confused a lot of us. What is taking your fancy this week?

@KikoCy, massive shout with Eibar at home after their loss the previous week. Well played there mate. What do you like here?

Also keen to hear the views of regular La Liga contributors such as @sajtion, @musang, @WinningAdvice, and @Bett.

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Not easy this midweek ... no idea yet.. I'll be tend to back athletico, and i see Villarreal at least not loosing at Ossasuna... maybe a double chance here, combined with a win or a draw no bet for Athletico, not sure there's much value..

Difficult to back Valencia, Real Sociedad or Celta when looking their opponents of the day... I just feel like Ath Madrid is going to have a good reaction and a good win at la Coruna... have to wait a bit to make a decision

Edited by DrBetter
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Atletico win to nil @ 2.55

Deportivo failed to score in 35% of their games.

Atleti kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

Atleti need to keep up the pressure after their loss at home to Barcelona

Silly price for what is one of the best defences in Europe vs 17th in La Liga.

I can only assume this price is due to Atletico stumbling against Bilbao (great home team) and Alaves (like to park the bus at home and general under-ish team).

Might put a small punt on CS 0-1 or 0-2 @ 3.5

 

Sevilla win @ 1.667

Sevilla are great at home (WWWDW) and Bilbao are terrible away. (LLDLL)

Sevilla won 82% of home games and Bilbao have lost in 64% of their away games (won 18%, the rest drawing).

Ridiculous price and I gotta jump on it.

 

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I'm tempted to back Valencia, but their two top scorer (Mina and Rodrigo) are out, injuries in defense too, ... tough one... But Leganes away is garbage, they've also a few injuries, and i'm still impressed with Valencia's win against Real, so BTTS could be a good bet here, or an acca with valencia in a draw no bet, and malaga also in Dnb... Don't see both side loosing, and i've a feeling that Malaga is going to do a good match, Betis is terrible away even if they played recently good matchs against Barca or Sevilla, not sure they'll have the same grinta in this game. 

Real Sociedad-Eibar: BTTS is the safe bet for me too here (as Notorious).. No doubt on this one...

Could be a draw at the end, both team scores and defend well, both haven't done a draw since ages... Maybe it's the good time to back a draw here (with BTTS or not).. Without their top scorer Willian José, a win of Sociedad is tough to back, mostly because the opposition is one of the best team currently in spanish liga.. BTTS@1.7

Edited by DrBetter
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Uh, thanks for that. I didn't expect odds above 1,6 on Valencia. I will post analysis soon.

e: hm, it's not just Mina and Rodrigo, it's also Nani, Orellana and Montoya... phuh, I can get it now why odds are growing.

Edited by Pep004
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3 hours ago, DrBetter said:

I'm tempted to back Valencia, but their two top scorer (Mina and Rodrigo) are out, injuries in defense too, ... tough one... But Leganes away is garbage, they've also a few injuries, and i'm still impressed with Valencia's win against Real, so BTTS could be a good bet here, or an acca with valencia in a draw no bet, and malaga also in Dnb... Don't see both side loosing, and i've a feeling that Malaga is going to do a good match, Betis is terrible away even if they played recently good matchs against Barca or Sevilla, not sure they'll have the same grinta in this game. 

Real Sociedad-Eibar: BTTS is the safe bet for me too here (as Notorious).. No doubt on this one...

Could be a draw at the end, both team scores and defend well, both haven't done a draw since ages... Maybe it's the good time to back a draw here (with BTTS or not).. Without their top scorer Willian José, a win of Sociedad is tough to back, mostly become the opposition is one of the best team currently in spanish liga.. BTTS@1.7

After Eibar let me down the week before last in the BTTS market away from home I would like to steer clear of them here! :lol

I am also tempted to get behind Valencia. They are showing a bit more of a positive approach. The defeat to Alaves on the weekend was thoroughly disappointing but they have to beat Leganes here, surely! If not, then their resurgence will be over before it had even properly started.

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3 hours ago, Pep004 said:

Uh, thanks for that. I didn't expect odds above 1,6 on Valencia. I will post analysis soon.

e: hm, it's not just Mina and Rodrigo, it's also Nani, Orellana and Montoya... phuh, I can get it now why odds are growing.

I think Nani is back for this match, I am not sure need to check...

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32 minutes ago, Notorious said:

@KikoCy I want to stay away from this game, but the dengerate in me insist on betting. Valencia to win they are playing at home.

haha! we have the same inner degenerate it seems.

I threw some money on Valencia win. Now looking back O1.5 team goals could be safer.

I reckon they can close out Leganes, negating a BTTS. The stats put me off.

Some stats:

Valencia 75% BTTS this season, 9% CS at home.

Leganes, 38% BTTS, failed to score in 46% of games, the majority I would suspect were away from home.

It's top of BTTS table vs bottom (excluding Atletico, 33% BTTS, who's defence is immense).

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Here's some interesting statistical facts about next La Liga games:

Real Sociedad have won 70% of their last 10 home league matches.
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their away matches in La Liga this season.
Celta have scored in both halves of 55% of their home matches this season in La Liga.


You can find more interesting statistical facts for next games on http://eurofootballrumours.com/football-facts-28-02-2017

 

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Real Sociedad v SD Eibar
Real Sociedad: Carlos Martínez (10/0 d), Agirretxe (0/0 f), Willian José (20/9 f, top scorer)
SD Eibar: Capa (19/0 d, suspended), Riesgo (14/0 first goalkeeper), Rico (17/2 m), Kike (12/2 f), Nano (6/1 f)

Valencia CF v CD Leganés
Valencia CF: Orellana (5/1 m, suspended), Montoya (19/2 d), Nani (18/3 m), Santi Mina (18/5 f, top scorer), Rodrigo (15/4 f, 2nd top scorer)
CD Leganés: Serantes (13/0 first goalkeeper), Ibáñez (5/2 m), Timor (17/1 m), Morán (3/0 m), Ramos (15/0 m), Koné (5/0 f)

 

Daily updated injuries and suspensions information from more then 100 football leagues and competitions worldwide at: www.injuriesandsuspensions.com

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6 hours ago, Punki85 said:

I think Nani is back for this match, I am not sure need to check...

Nani is not in the squad for today. For me at Valencia it's always a question about Parejo.. if he would be motivated, than they will play good, but if he will have his lazy day, than ball movement will be too slow, and with players like Szymanovski, Leganes can score on Mestalla, so I am seeing odds for over far more valuable. On the other hand Valencia is able to score 3 goals as well.. 

Screen Shot 2017-02-28 at 19.15.21.png

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Valencia - Leganes
Full Event Over 2.25 (O/U) @ 2.140 5/10 SBO
Football / Spa. Primera / Kick off: 28 Feb 2017, 21:30

Match between 13th and 16th placed team in Spanish La Liga will be played on Mestalla in Valencia and will start at 21:30 on Tuesday. 

Valencia is coming to the match after being defeated in Alaves. I need to admit that I expected little bit more from them, specially after being in front, but they lost and big win against Real Madrid is somehow in shadow. Today they will miss Orellana, Nani, Montoya, Rodrigo and Mina, all important players but they still have quality in the squad. 

Leganes is coming to match after big win against Deportivo, who sacked their coach after 4-0 defeat. For Leganes that was first fin after 21th November 2016, and I believe that they will come on Mestalla with boosted morale, trying to surprise them. Besides, they were pretty close to snap the point also on Camp Nou one match before, but Messi scored from "penalty" and Barcelona won 2-1. 

One crucial point of this match could be on the right side of Valencia, where Voro will probably start with Canello (Montoya who is first option for this position is injured). Cancello is pretty offensive wingback and I believe that his movement will be really high on the pitch, which means that Szymanowski who is in my opinion best individual of Leganes and used to play on left wing, will have lot of space in counter-attacks. Even if he won't play, Leganes is not afraid to play, and I am sure that they won't settle for goalless draw here and they will attack. Zaza has shown that he has quality and that Spanish league suits him and this match could be "easy" for him to add some goals on his account. First I was thinking about going straight on Valencia, but as I think that Leganes can score here, I will take option for goals. Besides, odds are too high in my opinion and I believe that we will see goals in this match.

Edited by Pep004
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Arfff.. Betis lucky win... painful to watch, had malaga in a draw no bet in an acca... the only match which makes me lose it... had them winning in a single too..

Backed Valencia, too, and the BTTS for Sociedaad Einar was the good choice... But poor match for Malaga, very disappointing.. had so many chances at the end... had them also in a draw like for sociedad... i was very close to win of a big acca with these draws... what a shame..

Anyone backing a win for Villarreal and Athletico?

Edited by DrBetter
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The home has 16 to 23 goal goal and 8 out of 12 goal goal at home, while Las Palmas is 14 to 24 goal goal and 7 goal goal in 11 away match. Las Palmas I expect to be able to score at least once since and Real in recent matches easily accepts the goal
REAL MADRID vs UNION DEPORTIVA LAS PALMAS @@ Both team to score, odds 1.85

Celta is possible on the field with eight wins and three defeats in the last eight games at Balaidos has seven wins and only one defeat. After the adventure in the Europa League expect the Celta to get concentrated on the field and with the help of the public to get the victory
CELTA DE VIGO vs RCD ESPANYOL BARCELONA @@ CELTA DE VIGO, odds 2.00

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9 minutes ago, teodor.dimitrow said:

Hey, Guys. Any thoughts why the odds for Villarreal are going up? No, they are not in top form, but they scored 2 against Real M. Take in mind the current form of their opponent:  Osasuna: last place in the table with very small chances to stay in the La Liga next year? 

Money probably shifting the other way.

They are also missing their best player, Bruno Soriano and have other absentees.

2 DNB probably the safest option as they also draw away from home.

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I took Valencia to score over 1.5 and it is rule every f... time when I take this kind of bet it is 1:0 :lol What about Granada today, Alaves with few important missings today, and when I see that they have only 2 lost in last 20 matches, I would go to sell my house and put on Granada, come ooooon Alaves cant go nowhere, and Granda desperatelly need a win...some opinion about that match? 

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Celta Vigo - Espanyol: BTTS @1.8

Espanyol lost only 4 times on away games this season, and hasn't done a draw since a long time (7). Celta has done only 2 home clean sheet this season, and I don't see them adding another one against a good team like Espanyol, and they never had a draw at home, not a single one for Celta. 8 won, 3 defeat... Why not start this week end.. So i would back a draw, but BTTS is safer for me @1.8, maybe a draw separately...  Still afraid of a shitty 1-0, or 0-1...

 

Ossasuna - Villareal: Villareal Win @2.1 or DnB @1.6

Ossasuna has never won a match at home, and performed only one home clean sheet, so IMO it will certainly not be the case against Villarreal. Even if there's some injuries on both side, now that Villarreal as Celta, doesn't have the europa league anymore, they'll get focus on the liga, and therefore, I don't see Villarreal loosing... I'll be tempted to back the win, a short one surely, but a draw no Bet combined win something else is safer... like an away goal of Alaves @1.4 (over0.5), which seems to me a sure deal... But the win is difficult not to back, Ossasuna has conceded 18/24 games at least 2 goals, Villarreal is at 5 games in a row since an away loss, this team don't do a "bad match", sometimes a draw, that's it, the problem is that Villarreal won only 3 games away, drawing 6 times, and loosing only 2 times, quite impressive, but not that impressive to back a sure win.. I would probably go on 2 bets, the win of course, and the double mentionned above with Dnb and Alaves scoring at least a goal

 

Granada - Alavès:  Alavès away goal @1.4  / Alavès in DnB @1.85 / ( Alavès Win @2.8 ? )

Granada is not Ossasuna, surely, they've won 3 times at home, drawing 4 times...but they've also done only 2 clean sheet at home this season, so that's why I really see Alaves, in good form, able to score at least a goal.. no real doubt for me... Even if Granada doesn't concede a lot at home neither, just the usual goal... Plus, Alaves as only lost 4 times away this season, won 5 times away, so a draw no bet here appear a sure thing... There's also good reasons to back a win, but Alaves is no scoring machine, so i don't see them scoring more than a goal, maybe they'll concede also one, is highly possible... BTTS is too tricky here anyway, no over is tempting, so Alaves in a DnB here is the perfect choice imo @1.85..

 

Deportivo - Ath Madrid:  Ath Madrid Win @1.7  (+ Sévilla in a DnB @1.3 to raise a bit ??)

New coaching for Deport? And so what? As usual, a win for AtM, a short one surely, but Deportivo is so poor, they have 0 chance to score, and every chance to concede a goal... It's so obvious, champions league is not here yet, they're almost qualified for the next round, Simeone is going to motivate them to catch the train of Madrid, Sevilla & Co, they just cannot loose, i feel like we'll see an Athletico with full power, ready to erase last week defeat against Barca...

 

Do you guys share some of these thoughts with me?

 

Edited by DrBetter
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I've taken Villareal to beat Osasuna. I just can't see how Villareal don't get 3/4 really good chances in this one. If they can take 2 I think they'll win the game. 

Osasuna have a decent attacking press but they are invisible at the back and despite losing to Madrid, Villareal put in a very accomplished performance v Madrid for 60 mins. I think what happened is quite simply as has happened to many in the past when faced with a rampant Madrid comeback, their mentality folded. No shame in that.

In this one I can see them keeping it very tight defensively (as they are renowned) and looking to pinch 1 or 2 themselves.

Villareal 2.20

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I throw my eye on match between Granada and Alaves and after analysing it I think that we'll watch good, open football here, and that we'll see some goals. Odds pretty nice for over 2 @1,854 right now on Pinnacle. Whole analysis here!

 

p.s. I would really really love to see one other team against Villarreal tonight. Osasuna is that poor that they can beat themselves with handicap if needed... Villarreal without Bruno in midfield won't be the same. And as if that is not enough, they will be without first goalscorer Sansone, first goalkeeper Asenjo (finished season), main right full back Mario Gaspar. It's true that they have lot of players, and rotation is not something what Escriba wouldn't be used to.. but if they would play against some decent team I would go with clear victory. Can Osasuna do it? We'll see. :) 

Edited by Pep004
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12 hours ago, Punki85 said:

I took Valencia to score over 1.5 and it is rule every f... time when I take this kind of bet it is 1:0 :lol What about Granada today, Alaves with few important missings today, and when I see that they have only 2 lost in last 20 matches, I would go to sell my house and put on Granada, come ooooon Alaves cant go nowhere, and Granda desperatelly need a win...some opinion about that match? 

I got 2.6 houses :lol

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@Pep004 The answer to your Osasuna question; no, they certainly cannot do it :lol :beer

I've backed Atletico at 1.73 to beat Deportivo. Just can't see them slipping up here given the Barcelona result and the fact that Madrid have dropped more points.

Tempted to take them (ah) -1 also. 

Anyone backing Deportivo? :loon

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Sevilla has 16 in 24 goal goal overall in the league, while Bilbao has 15 in 25 goal goal in thw league. The two groups have very good offensive lines and expect that they can score and confirmed the Goals
FC SEVILLA vs ATHLETIC BILBAO @@ Both team to score, odds 1.80

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