Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

[dave]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) It certainly looks like a day where some favourites will get turned over edtkh. JJ @ 4/6 would normally tempt me, but I did mention his injury before Queen's and I'm not sure if he's fully fit yet.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

It certainly looks like a day where some favourites will get turned over edtkh. JJ @ 4/6 would normally tempt me, but I did mention his injury before Queen's and I'm not sure if he's fully fit yet.

Couldn't agree more, dave. However, as is often the case, only a handful of those will actually pull through. Regarding JJ, I think Rusedski's horrendous form - as was the case against Martin - will nullify it somewhat(assuming he's still carrying the injury)... ;)

[heniek31]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Good first two days in the office. Stepanek+Bjorkman @2 40pts :D Saulnier @2 10pts :( Beck @2.1 10pts :( Andreev @3 5pts :D Gasquet O.Rochus Popp @1.83 20pts :D Garcia-Lopez tb Ferrer @ 2.10 10pts :D Starting bank 100pts Current bank 152.6 Profit +52.6 Just to mention, Racing Post tiped Daniilidou to beat Henin @11 :clap.

[Tulenos]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Well done, heniek. Not sure Danil. can progress further, but at least her odds in the next match will be pretty inlated so a lay may be on cards.;)

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Some punter in our shop had £250 on Henman to win before the game @ 1/9. I bet he was sweating a little bit after the 1st 2 sets!!

[heniek31]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Cheers Tulenos. I have come back form work three hours ago and have to get up for work in 5, so I have no time to look at tomorrows games :(. However, very short to stay in touch... H T Lee tb J Ferrero @2.75 5pts Hill Ferrero never convinced me on grass, beat Delgado (who?) in first round. Lee likes fast surface and he has good chance of producing an upset. Rusedski tb JJ @2.22 10pts Pinnacle Rusedski should get his ticket to the third round here. We know he can bottle any game, but he should win this "battle of servs". JJ on grass 8/8, Rusedski 37/15. Home support = 1 set :tongue2. Davydenko Safin Youzhny treble @3.05 7pts Hill Sorry for short and crapy write ups (as usual :lol ), but its time for :zzz. Good Luck.

[Tulenos]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) No, it's time for another . Anyway, can't see Rusedski winning tomorrow and I doubt the crowd will expect anything but a defeat either. I would personally prefer (alhough shorter), a proven server called JJ.;)

[Tulenos]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Quite inclined to back Bjorkman to bt Davydenko @ 5/6 tomorrow.;) For Bjorkman, grass is the only surface where he is at least even this year, all other surfaces are losers for him (talking about singles), Davydenko is yet to play on grass (!!!). The H2H is 1-0 for Davydenko, BUT the last (and only) match was on dirt and back in 2001 (in Paris).

[Tulenos]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Huh - Bjorkman @ 2.10 with Pinnacle - a definite bet now.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) A couple of value bets on Day 3. 3pts Di Mauro to beat Kiefer (7.6 @ Betfair) :( 10pts LAY Kiefer 3-0 (1.71 @ Betfair) :( This has got to be one of the biggest mismatch if the prices are anything to go by. Kiefer is anything but convincing on this surface given he was taken to 5 sets by Benneteau, who isn't exactly a decent grasscourt player to begin with, in the last round and has progressed beyond the 3rd round only twice in the last 8 years - not exactly something to be totally blown away by IMO. Di Mauro has done well to beat Goodall in straight sets in the first round and if he repeats that performance(not to mention Kiefer will probably be fatigued by the draining 5-setter), he should have little trouble taking at least a set off Kiefer. 15pts Mayer-Grosjean (3.46 @ Ladbrokes) :D Grosjean is down 3-4 in the decider on his own serve when the match resumes - honestly, I can only imagine the suspension of play doing him good as they'd only help consolidate his efforts and start afresh today where his experience will no doubt come in handy IMO. Similarly, Mayer has got to be the value bet of the day for me - the pedigree of the duo couldn't be more contrasting given the fact Verdasco doesn't exactly have a game on grass against players as adept as Mayer. While I can understand the sportsbooks have probably taken into consideration the fact Mayer hasn't exactly set the world alight this year after the big year he had in 2004 where he just seemed to waltz through the ATP rankings, evens is still too big against Verdasco. 10pts J Johansson-Kirilenko (3.22 @ Ladbrokes) :( J Johansson is simply massive at 1.61. Rusedski is a spent force as far as I'm concerned and he's hardly half the player he once was as his struggle against Martin at times would suggest. J Johansson may be one of the weaker returners on the ATP, but so long as he keeps those serves coming, there just isn't any chance of Rusedski doing much damage on his serves. Kirilenko is obviously overpriced against the veteran Maleeva. The Bulgarian veteran has seen better days and is certainly not one who will trouble too much so long as the Russian plays the way she's been playing in the tournaments she's played in leading up to Wimbledon - nerves could be a factor, but at evens, I'm more than happy to take a chance. 10pts Monfils-Vinci-Youzhny (3.85 @ Ladbrokes) :D Youzhny beating Lisnard is pretty much self-explanatory. Roberta Vinci may not have much of a pedigree on grass, but she's clearly the one coming into this one on the back of good form. She's had a good buildup leading up to Wimbledon and her opening round defeat of Japan's top player Sugiyama merely confirms her ability - you've got to feel she'd just have too much in her tank for Kremer. Similarly, Monfils looks to provide massive value against Hrbaty - Hrbaty has never gone past the 3rd Round at Wimbledon(in fact, he's another of those who inexplicably never lives up to his expectations at Slams) and I can't see that changing too much. Monfils should put a stop to his run at Wimbledon as he's simply got the more complete game. 15pts Gimelstob-Ferrero (2.35 @ Ladbrokes) :D Gimelstob should see off Massu easily - the Chilean made more of a struggle against Sargsian than I thought he would and on the back of that, he's not going to stand much chance against Gimelstob. I can't see where the optimism is coming from for HT Lee. The Korean is really nothing more than a much-travelled journeyman who struggles at Slams and only seems to turn up for his share of pocket money he may never otherwise get - IMO, his defeat of the veteran Enqvist in the 1st Round counts for nothing because Ferrero's game bears very little, if any, semblance to what Enqvist offered. Ferrero, for me, is the finest Spanish player of this generation(I don't include Nadal in the comparison as he has still to prove himself over time on grass and hardcourts) having made the SF of no fewer than 3 different Grand Slams and it's not hard to see how he still stands head and shoulders above Lee looking at their respective Wimbledon records alone : Ferrero's last 4 visits to SW19 reads R32, R64, R16, R32 while Lee's reads R128, R64, R128. Ferrero will have too much class here and should beat Lee at a canter. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 72.40pts Profit/Loss : -27.60pts

[davidmphill]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Some punter in our shop had £250 on Henman to win before the game @ 1/9. I bet he was sweating a little bit after the 1st 2 sets!!

A little bit? I'd of been shitting bricks!!

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

A little bit? I'd of been shitting bricks!!

:rollin :rollin :rollin

[dave]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Just thinking out loud here, but who has Safin actually beaten on grass? This year, Alexander Popp (on his way back from injury), Fabrice Santoro, Olivier Rochus, Guillermo Canas and Paradorn Srichaphan. Some useful grasscourt performers, but no-one you wouldn't expect him to beat. Only Federer stopped him at Halle. Before this year, he's lost to Jonas Bjorkman, Dimitry Tursunov, Olivier Rochus, Peter Wessels, Goran Ivanisevic, Gianluca Pozzi, Martin Damm and Andrei Medvedev beating only lowly ranked, over the hill or poor grasscourt players. In Philippoussis he faces one of the best and most consistent grasscourt players of recent years. Tim Henman, Roger Federer, Richard Krajicek, Andre Agassi, Greg Rusedski and Pete Sampras are the only players to beat the Aussie at Wimbledon. I don't know if you can put Safin on a par with any of those on grass (including Henman and Rusedski edtkh :lol - even they've beaten top players on this surface) given his record. If Safin struggles with Philippoussis's serve he'll probably start throwing rackets etc. and at better than 2/1 the Scud looks a very tempting bet indeed. Anyone want to put me off?

[cluelessG]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Kirilenko is obviously overpriced against the veteran Maleeva. The Bulgarian veteran has seen better days and is certainly not one who will trouble too much so long as the Russian plays the way she's been playing in the tournaments she's played in leading up to Wimbledon - nerves could be a factor, but at evens, I'm more than happy to take a chance.

I watched the end of Maleeva - Asagoe (6:2, 7:6) match and the Bulgarian veteran looked very tired. Had Asagoe won the tiebreak, I think she would surely have gone on to win the match. Kirilenko is a good deal younger than Maleeva and if she manages to take a set off Maleeva, she should win the match. Can't see the Bulgarian playing a proper 3rd set.

[dave]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) What's Bjorkman's fitness like these days for the singles matches? Davydenko's had a great year, but no record to speak of on grass. From what I've seen doesn't look to have a game suited to the surface, but if he gets Bjorkman running about will he be able to do it? If Bjorkman's fitness holds up, then 11/10 looks big.

[The Saint]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Watched Bjorkmam vs Rusedski live in Australia at Melbourne this year... Best game I have ever seen 'live'... Unquestionably he is getting on, will probably have mental support (as in oz - gave them a solo of, "your not singing anymore" as Rusedski broke in the 4th set!) but it's impossible to tell.... I've just realised i've been of no help whatsoever but I guess what I'm aying is that I'd leave this match well alone!:\

[DangerMouse]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) edtkh, You seem very confident on Di Mauro to beat Kiefer. Brave enough to place 2 bets. However, Di Mauro does not seem to have any major experience, no sw19 record. Kiefer has been around a bit and has lots more experience, although has not been performing well recently. Di Mauro did beat a very young and inexperience Brit in the 1st round which I do not count much towards. IMO, i would be more cautious than over confident in Di Mauro. Career wise and experience I would take Kiefer. Good luck and hope I am wrong.

[cluelessG]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) DangerMouse, as I have understood, the idea of edtkh's pick is to bet against a 3:0 win for Kiefer - covering the other options : 3:1, 3:2 win for Kiefer and win for Di Mauro.

[Matt]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Juan Carlos Ferrero is my main bet today, Ive never been impressed by HT Lee and Juan Carlos can play on the grass. Lee is no more than an average grass courter and the ability of Ferrero should seee him through here :) 1.50 is a price I like considering I was expecting 1.33 here. Dominic Hrbaty will also be a bet, people know what I think of Monfils, a big serve that is extremely easy to read and nothing else to his game, he struggled bigtime past Okun last round and any time he has come up agaisnt anyone half decent he has been pissed on :) 1.59 will do :) Taylor Dent is very useful on this surface and should go a couple more round yets, Kevin Kim shouldnt trouble him too much and I back Dent to beat him with a -1.5 set handicap at 1.60.

[Luddite71]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) LOPEZ V SHERWOOD bet365 odds: Lopez 1/10 Sherwood 11/2 Handicap Lopez (-7) evs Sherwood (+7) evs Tie 6/1 Interested in Sherwood here but not really sure how this bloke shapes up on grass. Any ideas anyone please??

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Just thinking out loud here, but who has Safin actually beaten on grass? This year, Alexander Popp (on his way back from injury), Fabrice Santoro, Olivier Rochus, Guillermo Canas and Paradorn Srichaphan. Some useful grasscourt performers, but no-one you wouldn't expect him to beat. Only Federer stopped him at Halle. Before this year, he's lost to Jonas Bjorkman, Dimitry Tursunov, Olivier Rochus, Peter Wessels, Goran Ivanisevic, Gianluca Pozzi, Martin Damm and Andrei Medvedev beating only lowly ranked, over the hill or poor grasscourt players. In Philippoussis he faces one of the best and most consistent grasscourt players of recent years. Tim Henman, Roger Federer, Richard Krajicek, Andre Agassi, Greg Rusedski and Pete Sampras are the only players to beat the Aussie at Wimbledon. I don't know if you can put Safin on a par with any of those on grass (including Henman and Rusedski edtkh :lol - even they've beaten top players on this surface) given his record. If Safin struggles with Philippoussis's serve he'll probably start throwing rackets etc. and at better than 2/1 the Scud looks a very tempting bet indeed. Anyone want to put me off?

LOL! :rollin dave, not much to argue against, but I'd just say I think the argument you have put forward is very superficial in a way. I mean, don't you remember a certain Thai coming along in 2002 and sent Andre Agassi packing at Wimbledon? Well, just look how far he has fallen now... Right, I was actually giving Philippoussis a thought and I still maintain the value is with him as I write. However, I must stress I've never seen Safin play this well on grass and I did think of taking a chance with Philippoussis catching the volatile Russian in the sort of form we'd been more accustomed to seeing at SW19 than the one who beat Srichaphan. My take on this? If Safin slips a notch or two, Philippoussis has every chance of beating him, but if in the unlikely event Safin could repeat the quality of performance he showed against Srichaphan, I'd fancy the Russian to take this in straight sets. Best left alone - or for in-running - IMO... :tongue2

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

edtkh, You seem very confident on Di Mauro to beat Kiefer. Brave enough to place 2 bets. However, Di Mauro does not seem to have any major experience, no sw19 record. Kiefer has been around a bit and has lots more experience, although has not been performing well recently. Di Mauro did beat a very young and inexperience Brit in the 1st round which I do not count much towards. IMO, i would be more cautious than over confident in Di Mauro. Career wise and experience I would take Kiefer. Good luck and hope I am wrong.

Di Mauro does look a bit big, mate. I know Di Mauro didn't beat a world beater in the last round even though he came through in straight sets, but if you were to scrutinise Kiefer's performance against Benneteau(who really isn't someone I rate on grass either), I don't think that gives much cause for optimism for a 1.12-1.20(depending on which book you're with) shot. Add that to the fact that Kiefer has only once gone past the third round in the last 7 years, I don't see Kiefer having much of a record on grass either - of course, Di Mauro not having too much to boast of just makes this more fascinating IMO. Honestly, I remain convinced Kiefer isn't going to cruise through this one, even if he's going to win and I'm sticking a few bob on that simply on that basis.

[dave]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

don't you remember a certain Thai coming along in 2002 and sent Andre Agassi packing at Wimbledon

Yeah, he didn't do much else though. As I said, Philippoussis has been one of the best and most consistent grasscourt players of recent years. Still not sure I'm going to back him or not, but I think it's unfair to compare him to the Thai.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Yeah' date=' he didn't do much else though. As I said, Philippoussis has been one of the best and most [b']consistent grasscourt players of recent years. Still not sure I'm going to back him or not, but I think it's unfair to compare him to the Thai.

No, I'm not for a moment suggesting comparing him to the Thai. The point I was trying to make was basically point out how inconclusive your argument made if you choose to read too much into results for/against a particular player, especially if those results are taken from some time back which may not even be indicative of the current situation. Afterall, Bastl did beat Sampras and Srichaphan did beat Agassi... :rollin However, you might want to consider the fact Safin is less inclined to explode these days - his temperament has improved a great deal since he started working with Lundgren IMO - although he still does break his odd racquet every now and then... For me, I'd never have believed Safin could play as well on this surface as he did if I hadn't watched some footage of his matches at Halle and against Srichaphan although I'd agree Philippoussis could still be too big though.

[Luddite71]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) 4-1 to safin on the head to heads. And he has won the last 4. All meetings on hard with the exception of one on carpet in 2000 which safin won in 5 sets. Handicap betting has Phillippoussis with a 5 game start @ 8/11, safin 11/10, with the tie being 9/1. Another variation is the "to win first set" market with Bet365. Safin 4/7 Philippoussis 5/4 Much like yesterdays Bracciali/Karlovic affair I can certainly see the first set going to a tie break which would indicate a little value on Phili for the first set.

[Luddite71]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Similarly, Monfils looks to provide massive value against Hrbaty - Hrbaty has never gone past the 3rd Round at Wimbledon(in fact, he's another of those who inexplicably never lives up to his expectations at Slams) and I can't see that changing too much. Monfils should put a stop to his run at Wimbledon as he's simply got the more complete game.

Firstly I am in no way questioning what you say. I have actually pencilled in Hrbaty to win which is why i have an interest in what you say. They have met only once in 2005 on Hard with Hrbaty winning 6/3; 6/3. Just been looking at his wimbledon record and it is as follows: 1997 Lost to T Johansson 1998 Lost to Sampras 1999 lost to Woodforde 2000 Lost to Byron Black 2001 Lost to Sluiter 2002 Lost to Kafelnikov 2003 Lost to Srichaphan 2004 Lost to Ancic All were first round defeats with the exception of 2000 (second round). What we basically have here is an horrendous history in this tournament however when you look at his opponents (with the possible exception of 2000 & 2001) he has suffered tremendously bad with the draw. Fortunately for him this year the early draw does at least give him a possibility of progressing. I quite fancy in the back of his mind he feels hes been pretty hard done to over the last few years and will undoubtedly see this as his best ever chance to progress. Coupled with his experience and his opponents relative lack of it i would make him a pretty sound bet to progress.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Much like yesterdays Bracciali/Karlovic affair I can certainly see the first set going to a tie break which would indicate a little value on Phili for the first set.

You seem to be getting there with the tiebreak predictions... :lol

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Firstly I am in no way questioning what you say. I have actually pencilled in Hrbaty to win which is why i have an interest in what you say. They have met only once in 2005 on Hard with Hrbaty winning 6/3; 6/3. Just been looking at his wimbledon record and it is as follows: 1997 Lost to T Johansson 1998 Lost to Sampras 1999 lost to Woodforde 2000 Lost to Byron Black 2001 Lost to Sluiter 2002 Lost to Kafelnikov 2003 Lost to Srichaphan 2004 Lost to Ancic All were first round defeats with the exception of 2000 (second round). What we basically have here is an horrendous history in this tournament however when you look at his opponents (with the possible exception of 2000 & 2001) he has suffered tremendously bad with the draw. Fortunately for him this year the early draw does at least give him a possibility of progressing. I quite fancy in the back of his mind he feels hes been pretty hard done to over the last few years and will undoubtedly see this as his best ever chance to progress. Coupled with his experience and his opponents relative lack of it i would make him a pretty sound bet to progress.

This looks touch and go, really. Although personally, I feel the value stays with Monfils - I'd be on Hrbaty myself if this had taken place on any hardcourts... ;)

[Luddite71]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Yeah im undecided as yet. Hrbaty only 1/2 so really the value lies with Monfils. Really struggling with todays games

[Jedd]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Anyone have an idea on how serious J. Gimelstobs backinjury is, by any chance ?? He's playing massu now, 1-1 in set, 2-2 in 3rd..