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Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)


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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) McEnroe was saying that anybody who knew anything about tennis and followed the game would have known that Safin was in for a big game today. Don't agree with that, as with the consensus of folks on here I thought he'd stroll.

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Not a good day personally with a 29.8pts loss, but guess it was a rough day for most given the 2 upsets - J Johansson and Safin - which many seemed to have been on with great confidence. I hope no one lost too much there. Nevertheless, I thought nothing beat the fiasco in the Myskina-Jankovic affair which would have earned a 10/10 rating had it been a comedy. Will stick up some posts after I've had a closer look at some of the matches on Day 6(including those originally pencilled in for Day 5 but were postponed because of the weather) shortly... Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 106.05pts Profit/Loss : 6.05pts

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Popp (1.7) to beat Tursunov looks the best bet for me tomorrow. Tursunov not really in Popp's league on grass, and Popp proved his fitness by going 5 sets with Arthurs (though the longest rally in that match was probably 5 shots). Already on Mayer to beat Ferrero too, another match where grass court ability should show.

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Safin tb Lopez @1.25 40pts :@ Mayer tb Ferrero @2.1 10pts pending Berdych tb Dent @2.75 5pts :( Ancic tb Monfils @1.85 -5.5 10pts :) Jankovic Likhotseva @2.56 10pts :( Gonzalez @3 10pts :) Gonzalez @2 +1.5 10pts :) Starting Bank 100pts Current Bank 150.69 Profit +50.69

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) There're certainly quite a few cracking bets for Day 6 and I'll delve into some of them... ;) 20pts Mirnyi-Grosjean (1.78 @ Ladbrokes) :D This is massive and has got to be the most confident bet I've placed all week. Novak doesn't like this stuff and that has been well-documented. Although he seemed to have come through against Wessels and Santoro fairly easily, I thought the poor quality of the opposition did somewhat help play it into his hands. Nevertheless, I thought Santoro did expose a few chinks in Novak's armour as two(out of the 4) of the sets were very closely fought. Quite simply, Novak isn't going to stand a chance against the rejuvenated Mirnyi who's playing arguably the finest grasscourt tennis of his career - for starters, I can't see how on earth Novak's going to break Mirnyi's serves and assuming he holds the mindset of planning to outwit Mirnyi on tiebreaks, I can't see that working for him either as Mirnyi's record in tiebreaks starting at Queen's has just been terrific. Similarly, Djokovic played a shocker against Garcia-Lopez the other day and on the back of that performance, he hasn't got a hope in hell of getting anything against Grosjean. I'd expected Grosjean to be shorter than the 1.16 at which he's currently available. PS : I believe Mirnyi's price(which I placed at 1.53) is dropping rapidly everywhere - it's down to as low as 1.33-1.40 at some places now. Get on it quick. 10pts Mayer to beat Ferrero (2.16 @ Betfair) :( As most have already mentioned, Ferrero may be decent enough on grass, but he's clearly not in the league of someone who lives and breathes grass. Mayer's obviously cracking value at the price he's at even though he hasn't done much all year, but I'm certainly not one to bet against him on his favourite surface knowing how well he could play on this stuff - of course, Ferrero's slip-shod performance against Lee doesn't give me much confidence either. 10pts Martinez-Daniilidou (2.02 @ Ladbrokes) :( Peschke has done well to come this far, but I'm afraid that's just where her journey will end. The veteran Czech has come this far at Wimbledon and her highlight this year has obviously got to be beating Zvonareva in the last round. Having said that, however, I do not have the slightest doubts the former Wimbledon champion will not choke the way the Russian did and however I look at this(be it experience or ability), I can only see the Spaniard winning. Similarly, Daniilidou has shown what her game could do on grass by following up on the giantkilling against Henin-Hardenne with a virtual whitewash of Granville. Pennetta has done well to get here, but I can't help but feel she's had a favourable draw with Dulko and Gagliardi providing hardly the sternest challenges. In a nutshell, I just expect the Greek's powerful groundstrokes to overwhelm the unfancied Italian. 10pts Coria-Youzhny (2.13 @ Ladbrokes) :D Youzhny is up 2-1 at tied at 4-4 in the third - how he's available at 1.40 when he was a 1.57 shot before the match is beyond me. :eek Nevertheless, I can still see him having too much for Bjorkman and he should wrap things up when play resumes today. I'm sticking with Coria here simply on the basis of what I saw against Malisse - Melzer did not exactly have an easy time against Calatrava and I'd think Coria has got more of a game on grass than the Austrian ever will. So long as Coria can reproduce the form which saw him outwit Malisse, he should take this in 4 sets - at most. 10pts LAY Nalbandian 3-0 (2.98 @ Betfair) :D This is another cracking bet I feel deserves very much a shot. Murray has been playing some sublime stuff since his run to the SF at Roland Garros in the Boys' Singles and he's clearly followed that up with an impressive run at Queen's until injury cut his tournament short. Nevertheless, he does look to have recovered from that and has been in imperious form so far - honestly, it'd really surprise me if Britain's best hope(at least, that's how I see it :lol ) doesn't take at least a set off an indifferent Bandy. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 106.05pts Profit/Loss : 6.05pts

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) While this first week at Wimbledon isn't exactly my best start to a Slam :lol , the 16.9pts profit Day 6 has yielded is enough reason to believe a more profittable second week awaits as we get down to the business end - with more predictable results as well if precedents are anything to go by - of the tournament. Until Monday then... ;) Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 122.95pts Profit/Loss : 22.95pts

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) A small investment in Mirnyi v TJ is in order, I think. Though TJ was imperious today, it was against Tipsarevic, who was exhausted and happy with his progress. Mirnyi has been solid this week, as well as last week, showing improved form on grass. With Mirnyi nearing 6/4 on Betfair, it's time to nip in and take the value. Gasquet will no doubt be popular at 8/13 v Nalbandian, after people saw Bandy there for the taking vs Murray today. I fancy a medium investment on Gasquet here. The 4/7 about Gonzalez v Youzhny won't be around for long, but I am wary of this match. Must say I've enjoyed catching up with the Wimbledon thread, as I've been away this last week. Good luck for week 2.

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) With money in the bank from the predicted walloping of the woeful Lions rugby team, time to take a risk on tennis. Opposing Henman and Safin after the opening round worked for me , so now looking at the remaining top seeds the most vulnerable one seems to be Hewitt. He is strongly fancied and in good form so accordingly is overbet. I will be opposing him from here on, with a sizeable recovery bet (if he gets past Dent and then his most likely next opponent Ancic), on Federer to humble him. Mauresmo may be a similar candidate amongst the women. She has been breezing through her games so far with glowing write-ups but note how weak the opponents have been. She looks overbet to me and worth opposing from here on especially given her record once tournaments get down to the business end. She is a "grand slam disaster" and before you get carried away with the write-ups of her early round walkovers remember her first round exit at Eastbourne (http://www.thecouriermail.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,15630122%255E23216,00.html) You can get $4 on Dent to beat Hewitt and expect the same odds on Hewitt's opponent in the quarters if he gets there. So you can afford to be wrong the first time. Similar odds available on Mauresmos's opponents in this round and then in the next. This strategy makes more sense to me than taking the $1.22 odds for Hewitt or Maursemo.

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) With the capitulation of S Williams, I'm very tempted to dabble a little on Davenport to win the women's singles - she's very underrated actually. She's still available at 8.80(Betfair), which I think is absolutely massive. To begin with, Davenport has been in supreme form all week, dropping no more than 3 games in each of her 3 matches so far. It's no secret Davenport likes grass and she's probably more at home on this stuff than some of the others, not to mention she's got more experience than any of the other frontrunners which could make a significant difference in the women's game as we all know. I feel, if Davenport takes out Clijsters tomorrow, she's got no worse than a 50% shot at the title with just Sharapova standing in her way(and her record against Sharapova certainly gives me much confidence considering she just thumped the Russian 6-0, 6-0 not too long ago even though that took place on hardcourts). More importantly, however, Clijsters is someone whom I do not fancy for the title at all. Clijsters has a knack of choking when she plays the big names even though she clearly has the ability, not to mention the countless opportunities, to win Slams and it would hardly surprise me if Davenport overwhelms her just as she did a month ago at Roland Garros. For those who are keen on my reasoning behind my lack of faith in Clijsters, here goes : Clijsters could probably compile an encyclopedia chronicling her choking escapades - 1. Clijsters was up a set and 5-1 in the 2nd against Serena Williams in the Aussie Open SF '03, went on to lose that match; 2. Clijsters leads Henin-Hardenne 9-7 on head-to-head, but lost all 3 Grand Slam finals she played against her compatriot and 3. It's still anyone's guess how she tossed away a massive lead(up a set and 3-1 up in the second) at this year's French Open against Davenport so sensationally considering Davenport wasn't one who fancied playing on clay to begin with. All in all, I've seen one too many Henman in Clijsters' makeup and she's certainly not one I'd fancy for the title. With that out of the way and with Mauresmo hardly a threat to Davenport IMO, I feel a dabble on Davenport is worth a shot... ;)

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) I know very little about tennis so I was wondering if any of you could help me. I placed a bet on M.Ancic @ 29 at the start of the tournament, and now I have the option of laying him @ 21. I have never seen him play, I simply followed advice from earlier on in the thread. Can someone recommend when I should lay him. Who is most likely to beat him? Thanks:ok

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

I know very little about tennis so I was wondering if any of you could help me. I placed a bet on M.Ancic @ 29 at the start of the tournament' date= and now I have the option of laying him @ 21. I have never seen him play, I simply followed advice from earlier on in the thread. Can someone recommend when I should lay him. Who is most likely to beat him? Thanks:ok
Realistically, I don't see Ancic getting beyond the QF when Hewitt should put him to the sword... ;) Having said that, Ancic's passage to the QF is by no means assured if he throws up another below-par performance against Lopez, who stands just as good a chance of upsetting the 10th seed if he could repeat his performance against Safin.
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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Realistically, I don't see Ancic getting beyond the QF when Hewitt should put him to the sword... ;) Having said that, Ancic's passage to the QF is by no means assured if he throws up another below-par performance against Lopez, who stands just as good a chance of upsetting the 10th seed if he could repeat his performance against Safin.
Thanks for the info:ok. I'll try to lay it before the Lopez match. Unfortunately I may not be able to because my account is suspended until I complete the KYC (know your customer) thing:o. I'll lay Ancic as soon as my account is sorted. I guess fate will decide whether that's before or after the Ancic/Lopez match;).
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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Starting Bank 100pts Current Bank 130.69 Profit +30.69 :o Sorry there is no reasoning behind my picks, but have no time. Bets I placed: Gasquet Myskina @2.75 10pts Hill Dent tb Hewitt @4 10pts Hill Mirnyi tb T Johansson @2.25 10pts bet365 Lopez tb Ancic @2.75 10pts bet365 Davenport tb Clijsters @2.10 10ps bet365 Good Luck.

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) A quick preview for Day 7... 25pts T Johansson-Grosjean-Roddick (2.18 @ Ladbrokes) :D This is another of those nailed-on accas which are as safe as they come. Roddick to beat Coria at 1.14 is a joke and simply looks massive. Similarly, Grosjean's experience should help him ease past Tursunov who hasn't beaten anyone of significance IMO. Lastly, T Johansson has got to be one of the value bets of the day. Johansson is a master of the tactical/defensive game - certainly in another league from mugs like Hrbaty and Stepanek in my book - who plays a simple yet effective game which has worn down so many opponents down the years and I can't see that being any different today as Mirnyi will have his work cut out against this ruthless machine. Much as I rated Mirnyi coming into Wimbledon, I feel the serve is just about everything Mirnyi has got in his arsenal and Mirnyi's serves have looked suspect at times and that's clearly not something he could afford to do against someone like T Johansson. Mirnyi isn't going to stand a chance of beating Johansson the way the Swede's been playing - expect Johansson to take this in 4 sets, at most. 10pts Myskina-Ancic (2.44 @ Ladbrokes) :( After much deliberation, I feel Ancic will still have too much class to outplay Lopez and 1.33 still looks a reasonable enough shot IMO - afterall, this is the first grasscourt specialist Lopez is up against and I don't think his wins preceding this will have much bearing against Ancic. Myskina-Dementieva is not one I'd like to watch - honestly, I'd expect this to be another unforced-error strewn match between two inepts whose nerves will be frayed every other second. Here are 2 ambassadors of everything wrong with the women's game and I'm sure they will serve up their fair share of comedy. I'm going with Myskina for this one because I think she's lesser of the two inepts, although I'm not expecting her to cruise through by any stretch of the imagination. 10pts Gasquet-Davenport (3.63 @ Ladbrokes) :( Gasquet has been superb on grass since he set foot on the first grasscourt tournament a few weeks ago and I can only imagine his Nottingham success boosting his confidence. He's simply gone from strength to strength at Wimbledon and I honestly can't see Bandy troubling him too much given how much his battle with Murray must have taken out of him. Davenport is just way overpriced IMO - I'm not going to elaborate much on this as I've said most of what needs to be said in an earlier post when I explained why I thought Davenport could now be a genuine title contender at Wimbledon. Even though Clijsters leads Davenport 9-7, Davenport has won 4 of the 5 meetings in Grand Slams between the pair and holds a 1-0 lead over Clijsters in their only ever meeting on grass. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 122.95pts Profit/Loss : 22.95pts

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Myskina-Dementieva is not one I'd like to watch - honestly' date=' I'd expect this to be another unforced-error strewn match between two inepts whose nerves will be frayed every other second. Here are 2 ambassadors of everything wrong with the women's game and I'm sure they will serve up their fair share of comedy. [/quote'] May be an idea to bet on this one in-running? Whoever wins this probably isn't going to do things the easy way, so may be worth waiting for the first break of serve, backing whoever's just been broken when their odds are lengthened, then wait for the situation to turn around, as it very likely will at some stage, and back the other one.
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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Some value bets today. Gonzalez has been fantastic this week for once on grass and is serving many aces and his power game should be able to take out Youzhny comfortably today, Ill take a chance at 1.98 with a -1.5 handicap on him. I like Bandys chances today, Gasquet has done well on grass but 2.80 on Nalbandian seems very high, Bandy wont have had too much taken out of him on saturday as 3 of the sets were less than 30 mins and he is used to having many 5 set matches anyway, one of the fittest men on the tour and had this match been priced up a month ago Bandy would have been fave. I actually fancy Mirinyi today at 2.50 as well, I have to confess I hadnt seen Mirinyi live for a couple of years before his match agaisnt Novak and was very impressed as with his ground strokes as I didnt think he had anything from the back of the court. I think he will go close with Tojo today :) good luck all ):

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Unfortunately I can't say I'll be following any of your bets today Ed. I was having a look at the games yesterday, and thought to myself "hell, so many of these games can just go either way, I wonder what sort of bets Ed will be tipping tomorrow!" For the benefit of those who follwo your (usually excellent) tips blindly, I'll try to play a little devil's advocate so that people who don't really follow tennis can make a reasonable fair judgement as to which picks of yours they want to follow. First let me start by covering myself - don't get me wrong, but Ed's got a great chance of ending up in profit with those tips, he's probably picked the players I would favour in each of their outcomes, but feal that in most caes it's only a 60-40 chance, and thus, with 3 accs, just 1 going wrong in each could lead to a big loss! Here's a bit about why I think those bets can be dangerous: In the 1st Accumalator I 100% agree that Roddick and Grosjean should walk their matches, however, as Ed admits as much, Mirnyi is just in far too good form to be ebt against, especially when he's up against a non-grass court player who Murray could have beaten at Queen's, and Gilles Muller took to 3 sets. On the other hand Mirnyi has only lost to Hewitt and reached the final at Nottingham where he lost to Gasquet - who will be one to watch on all surfaces for years to come. As mentioned, Johansson is still likely to win this considering he also has a 4-0 h2h, including a grass court game in 2004, but you should be aware of how good Mirnyi is looking this year. In the 2nd Accumalator, I think going for someone who is less likely to lose is a risky gamble. If 2 people are playing badly then in my experience that is almost the definition of "it could go either way". So backing Myskina is tough. In the Ancic game, I would agree that he is the likely victor, but actually think that odds of 1.33 are stingy to say the least. Lopez has just beaten a resurgent Safin (although admittedly Safin didn't show many signs of the resurgance in their match) and is riding high on confidence. He also practically played the perfect game, with a high percentage of 1st serves in, and few unforced errors in terms of what you'd expect from an attacking player. Furthermore, Ancic's mental stability issues are not a big secret, and I would rarely back him in tough encounters - not at those odds anyway. In the 3rd Accumulator, Gasquet is a pretty good bet - maybe include him in an accumulator with A-Rod and Grosjean if you still get decent odds. Personally I wouldn't bet against Clisjters ever. In my book you never bet against a top player playing well, even if she is a choker. IMO decent shout to lay her for the title, but she still has some way to choke - it doesn't necessarily mean she'll do it today. So there you go. I don't mean to directly disrepsect your tips Ed, just thought that too many of them are close calls and people should be made aware fo that! I sincerely hope that I'm wrong though and your tips come out - I'd follow them if I was playing a game, but woudlnt' put some hard earned cahs behind theem, if you get what I'm saying.

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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Unfortunately I can't say I'll be following any of your bets today Ed. I was having a look at the games yesterday, and thought to myself "hell, so many of these games can just go either way, I wonder what sort of bets Ed will be tipping tomorrow!" For the benefit of those who follwo your (usually excellent) tips blindly, I'll try to play a little devil's advocate so that people who don't really follow tennis can make a reasonable fair judgement as to which picks of yours they want to follow. First let me start by covering myself - don't get me wrong, but Ed's got a great chance of ending up in profit with those tips, he's probably picked the players I would favour in each of their outcomes, but feal that in most caes it's only a 60-40 chance, and thus, with 3 accs, just 1 going wrong in each could lead to a big loss! Here's a bit about why I think those bets can be dangerous: In the 1st Accumalator I 100% agree that Roddick and Grosjean should walk their matches, however, as Ed admits as much, Mirnyi is just in far too good form to be ebt against, especially when he's up against a non-grass court player who Murray could have beaten at Queen's, and Gilles Muller took to 3 sets. On the other hand Mirnyi has only lost to Hewitt and reached the final at Nottingham where he lost to Gasquet - who will be one to watch on all surfaces for years to come. As mentioned, Johansson is still likely to win this considering he also has a 4-0 h2h, including a grass court game in 2004, but you should be aware of how good Mirnyi is looking this year. In the 2nd Accumalator, I think going for someone who is less likely to lose is a risky gamble. If 2 people are playing badly then in my experience that is almost the definition of "it could go either way". So backing Myskina is tough. In the Ancic game, I would agree that he is the likely victor, but actually think that odds of 1.33 are stingy to say the least. Lopez has just beaten a resurgent Safin (although admittedly Safin didn't show many signs of the resurgance in their match) and is riding high on confidence. He also practically played the perfect game, with a high percentage of 1st serves in, and few unforced errors in terms of what you'd expect from an attacking player. Furthermore, Ancic's mental stability issues are not a big secret, and I would rarely back him in tough encounters - not at those odds anyway. In the 3rd Accumulator, Gasquet is a pretty good bet - maybe include him in an accumulator with A-Rod and Grosjean if you still get decent odds. Personally I wouldn't bet against Clisjters ever. In my book you never bet against a top player playing well, even if she is a choker. IMO decent shout to lay her for the title, but she still has some way to choke - it doesn't necessarily mean she'll do it today. So there you go. I don't mean to directly disrepsect your tips Ed, just thought that too many of them are close calls and people should be made aware fo that! I sincerely hope that I'm wrong though and your tips come out - I'd follow them if I was playing a game, but woudlnt' put some hard earned cahs behind theem, if you get what I'm saying.
No problem, tyreeq! :ok We'll see soon enough and good luck to whatever you've stuck on(well, just bar those in which you're opposing me :lol )...
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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

I believe Davenport will win convincingly today.
Just thought I'd include the Wimbledon records of the two respective players here : Davenport - QF('98), Winner('99), F('00), SF('01), did not take part in 2002, QF('03), SF('04) Clijsters - 4th Rnd('99), 2nd Rnd('00), QF('01), 2nd Rnd('02), SF('03), did not take part in 2004 Not hard to see who's the better one on grass, eh? ;)
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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

May be an idea to bet on this one in-running? Whoever wins this probably isn't going to do things the easy way' date=' so may be worth waiting for the first break of serve, backing whoever's just been broken when their odds are lengthened, then wait for the situation to turn around, as it very likely will at some stage, and back the other one.[/quote'] LOL! :lol Excellent idea there! Should have seen that coming - Myskina was available at 9.00(Betfair) during the 2nd set tiebreak when basically both dropped both their own serves from 6-6 onwards - until Myskina pipped Dementieva to it at 11-9. :rollin
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Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) I didn't play this one as well as I should've done. Backed Myskina as soon as she went a break down (i.e. after her first service game) at 6/5, but then she never really looked like getting back into it for ages. Decided to just leave it all through the tiebreaker, then when Myskina went two breaks up in the final set, tried to back Dementieva at 15/2. Was too late, as Myskina was 0-30 on her own serve by then, but managed to get Dementieva at 10/3 nonetheless. Dementieva inevitably got the double break back, and a couple of minutes ago, with Myskina 5-4 up and serving for the match, I've been frantically clicking refresh on the Bet365 page trying to back Dementieva again. Unfortunately they seem wise to that move and have only now put the odds back up with Dementieva just having broken back for 5-5. If Myskina breaks I'll try again to back Dementieva, as I don't rate Myskina's chances of holding serve for the match :lol

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