Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Just two bets for Day 9... 50pts Federer-Roddick-Hewitt (1.64 @ Ladbrokes) :D I feel no less confident on this treble than the one I had for the ladies' quarters yesterday. Federer to beat Gonzalez is pretty much self-explanatory as FedEx has proved he's more than capable of breaking any opponent's serve, however big that might be. Similarly, Roddick leads Grosjean 5-1 on h2h and 3-0 on grass(incidentally, Roddick has also won all their grass meetings at Queen's in straight sets) - don't suppose I could see the Frenchman reversing that record too much today. Lastly, I think Lopez is overrated on the back of the fine run he has had to the QF - Hewitt would be nothing more than a 1/4 shot had this been a first round encounter. It's easy to forget Bjorn Phau actually took Lopez to 5 sets in the first round given how easily Lopez beat both Safin(I thought Safin looked a pale shadow of the player he'd been since Halle when he played Lopez) and Ancic(Ancic had been piss poor all week and on hindsight, I'm still wondering how Udomchoke didn't beat him). However, I must stress in Hewitt, Lopez will be up against an opponent like no other he has faced and Hewitt also happens to be one who possesses all the characteristics required to counter Lopez's big-serving game IMO. Hewitt is quite simply one of the finest returners on the ATP(arguably the finest after Federer IMO) and his dogged determination will go a long way towards asking more questions about Lopez's serve than all of Lopez's opponents combined have. Quite simply, on class and experience, Hewitt's the better player and I'll have to stick with the Australian to beat the much overhyped Spaniard. Although Hewitt beat Lopez in straight sets in their only ever meeting at the US Open last year, I'd expect Hewitt to take this in 4 at most. 10pts T Johansson to beat Nalbandian (2.50 @ Betfair) :D This will be a battle of attrition and certainly not one for the purists - there'll be nothing much to purr over in this match IMO. I have been saying for quite some time now how much I rate Johansson as an efficient machine who has an unique ability to grind out results like no other even though the tennis he plays is hardly the most entertaining. The Swede has no particular strength worthy of note given his textbook style of play - that said, it's also to his credit he hasn't got a particular weakness which mediocre players could exploit. Nalbandian, on the other hand, is someone who basically doesn't do much on grass, but just turns up for Wimbledon and always seems to get a good run at the tourny. That said, he's perhaps a younger version of Johansson with numerous similar playing characteristics. However, if he decides to engage in long rallies in the hope of the Swede making an unforced error the way he did with Gasquet, I'm under no illusions there'll only be one winner - and it won't be the Argentinian. Personally, I won't look past anything before this year's Queen's/Halle for much reference as I feel this match will be decided by the form of the respective players on the day more than anything and the books have certainly got their prices just right IMO(1.61-1.72 for Nalbandian and 2.00-2.20 for T Johansson). Nalbandian had come into Wimbledon on a dismal and indifferent run with an early exit at the hands of Schuettler at Halle - however, he has since picked up his game at Wimbledon with straight sets wins in all his matches bar the one against Murray. Johansson's run has been no less impressive with a SF appearance at Queen's(losing to Karlovic on 2 tiebreaks) and followed that up with straight sets wins in all his matches bar the one against Pavel at Wimbledon. Not much to seperate the two then, although I'd hand the edge to Johansson on the back of his Queen's performances as opposed to Bandy's form at Halle. The only other factor which I feel could give an indication of a gauge as to the strength of both players are their respective encounters against Murray(Johansson at Queen's and Bandy at Wimbledon). Although much has been made of the fact Murray had pushed T Johansson to the wire before injury caused him the match, I must stress Murray never really held an upperhand over the Swede as he was still down 5-6 in the decider on serve before his injury allowed Johansson to break him to win the decider 7-5. In Bandy's encounter at Wimbledon, however, you've got to feel Bandy was outplayed for the best part of 4 sets and was certainly pushing his luck at times in the fourth set before shading it and eventually wrap up the match comfortably with Murray barely able to walk in the 5th set. Once again, there's not much I have seen from Bandy to convince me he's a worthy shot at anything odds-on. In a nutshell, T Johansson should be a 50-50 shot at the very worst and anything as generous as 2.50 has certainly got to be worth a shot IMO. Cheers & Good Luck! Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 191.95pts Profit/Loss : +91.95pts

[superfly69]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) ed - i am sure you are probably right about gonzalez. still my bank is pretty healthy at the moment so a tenner @ 90 for a fun bet for me... thanks for ur comments

[mabell]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) In principle, if Gonzalez did somehow get past Federer today, his odds would be slashed which would set up a lay nicely on betfair for a garunteed profit. Though this is my main reason why I haven't put any money on Gonzalez at 90, I simply cant see anything based on current or past form that would suggest he will beat Federer. Similarly though Johannsson is available @ 67 which in my opinion is a much better bet. He has far more chance of progressing than Gonzalez, and should he get to the semi finals I would expect him to be available to lay at maybe half those odds in the semi's.

[tyreeq]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) For what it's worth, Nick Bollietieri thinks Nalbandian should come over Johansson today. IMO it's one of those don't touch bets. Having said that - a huge profit over the last 10 days has led me to have some greedy feelings which are leading me to back Johansson simply because I believe he should be closer to evens than he is. Aside from that, I'd eyed the same treble as you Ed ever since yesterday's ladies success. My only doubt is Hewitt,but I read today that he'd won the last 18 (or something) matches against lefties. With Roddick's 6-1 h2h (inc. the last 3 on grass) and Feds clear superiority over Gonzalez, it's as close as you're going to get to a sure thing in any treble acc. ever!

[Luddite71]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Ive got a sneaky feeling for Lopez today. He seems to be one of the few players left who can really play from the back of the court and know his way when at the net. hewitt is a tremendous returner and loves the passing shots, however if Lopez gets his tactics right and attacks the net regularly I just feel that Hewitt will have to make too many spectacular passes, than is really feasible. This for me is definitely one to leave alone!

[Jamesk]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) A cracking bet of Hewitt -2.5 at 8/11 in L:adbrokes for Hewitt backers. 4/11 to win outright, this minus a handicap that he'll almost certainly cover in winning anyway, has to be taken for value if you're on Hewitt.(Its possibly even a potential arb. Back Hewitt -2.5 at 8/11 and Lopez at 9/4 if you want to complicate things!)

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

A cracking bet of Hewitt -2.5 at 8/11 in L:adbrokes for Hewitt backers. 4/11 to win outright' date=' this minus a handicap that he'll almost certainly cover in winning anyway, has to be taken for value if you're on Hewitt.(Its possibly even a potential arb. Back Hewitt -2.5 at 8/11 and Lopez at 9/4 if you want to complicate things!)[/quote'] A pity I didn't see that as they'd priced that up pretty close to the match starting, but I reckon Ladbrokes are one of those mugs who don't really know their tennis(as is also the case when it comes to rugby union) and have a knack of pricing up some daft thrash at outstanding value every now and then(as was the case with those bets I placed on Davenport yesterday). Now, that's another reason to stick with Ladbrokes! :lol Anyway, your bet looks a shoo-in now, but I certainly couldn't disagree on the value of a Hewitt -2.5 Games bet at 8/11 :eek considering it isn't much more than a Hewitt(4/11) win really...

[tyreeq]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) 2 down 1 to go! And both in straight sets. How excellent.:nana

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Johansson has broken Nalbandian to lead 2-1 and I'd safely predict the Swede will take the first set... ;)

[Borovnica]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Hy,again! My bet for tommorow is gonzalez +7.5(1.80) .Gonzalez is impresive so far loosing serve only two times and winning his matches in straight sets.Federer not until his match with ferrero were in first two sets he looked incredible.But i must say federer looked a bit nervous in his matches so far.I think that ferrero played preety good against federer but was missing some extra zip in his shots (gonzalez want).i dont see many chances for federer on gonzalez serve and its a question how will he cope with that. Nalbandian-T.Johannson i think in this match its all about nalbandian and on which leg he will get up. (you should take this in runnig) Roddick-Grosjean Key of this match is in first set.Whit roddick winning last six times,grosjean will give his best to win first.if he could win it then he has a chance.otherwise it will be easy walk for roddick(i will take grosjean in first-3.30) By.and good luck

federer-gonzalez 75 62 76 (not what i expected but i will take the money) roddick-grosjean 1.set 36 (great fight by grosjean in first set exactly what i expected)

[tyreeq]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Borovnica- whilst I congratulate you on your fine prediction of Grosjean winning the first I am a little confused as to your reasoning. Surely Grosjean is going to go out and try to win the 1st set just as he'd try to win the 2nd or 3rd! That would be the case in any match-up between 2 plaers no?

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Borovnica- whilst I congratulate you on your fine prediction of Grosjean winning the first I am a little confused as to your reasoning. Surely Grosjean is going to go out and try to win the 1st set just as he'd try to win the 2nd or 3rd! That would be the case in any match-up between 2 plaers no?

If I understood him correctly, I think he meant he saw Grosjean starting the match by firing on all cylinders coming. As some of these big names are known to slow starts, the underdogs might seize the opportunity to take an early advantage(which was what happened in the first set). Perhaps, he felt Grosjean would be affected psychologically and may not be as psyched up for the later sets had Roddick taken the opener?

[Borovnica]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) edtkh-you are right,i thought that grosjean would come into match more fired up loosing last 6 time and therefore more concetrated (in key moments roddick couldnt find first serve).Of course you need also a little bit of luck but with 3.30 i m prepared to take a risk.For tommorow i m going with mauresmo +3.5 @ 1.90.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

edtkh-you are right,i thought that grosjean would come into match more fired up loosing last 6 time and therefore more concetrated (in key moments roddick couldnt find first serve).Of course you need also a little bit of luck but with 3.30 i m prepared to take a risk.

That was an excellent call - and a brave one - there, mate! ;) Obviously Grosjean has lost the desire to stomach a fight in the 2nd and 3rd sets the way he did in the first...

[Jamesk]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Wont be on Mauresmo +3.5. For that to come off, you'll probably need her to take a set off Davenport which is unlikely. Davenport 2-0 is evens at ladbrokes and that is a better bet IMO.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Quick roundup of Day 9 with Hewitt and Federer doing their jobs as usual. Grosjean is obviously one to make you sweat(whether you're on or against him) as his performances against Tursunov, Llodra and now Roddick will bear testament. Lastly, I think Johansson's win here should make more people sit up and take note of what this ruthless machine is capable of dishing out to mediocre players(basically, all those bar the Roddicks, Safins, Hewitts and Federers) and it really came as little surprise he'd win the match the moment he took the first set as I don't think there're too many players out there who are as efficient and nerveless as the Swede(he's probably one of those who wouldn't even break a smile even he won the lottery IMO :lol ). Once again, another of those days where everything has gone as planned - only regret I didn't throw in Johansson to make for a bigger acca than the treble :o . Nevertheless, another 47pts profit is always welcomed. ;) Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 238.95pts Profit/Loss : +138.95pts

[Borovnica]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Wont be on Mauresmo +3.5. For that to come off' date=' you'll probably need her to take a set off Davenport which is unlikely. Davenport 2-0 is evens at ladbrokes and that is a better bet IMO.[/quote'] I think that mauresmo have the game to bet davenport,it will be the question of her mind in crucial moments ,thats way i m going with hendikep.I respect your opininion, but i dont agree.WE shell see tommorow.

[Tulenos]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) bang on form, eddie;)

[Jamesk]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Well done Ed, particularly that call on TJ-I know a few people who talked me out of following your advice there but glad to see you made a few quid on another brave call!

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

I think that mauresmo have the game to bet davenport,it will be the question of her mind in crucial moments ,thats way i m going with hendikep.I respect your opininion, but i dont agree.WE shell see tommorow.

Bovronica, I have to agree with 1967 that Mauresmo +3.5 is no value(in fact, I wouldn't even settle for a +4.5). Will elaborate more when I do a preview of the ladies' SF tomorrow - I've got other matters to attend to at the moment... ;)

[Darlo Fan 1]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Great stuff today Ed, Been watching Wimbledon this past couple of weeks as had time off work. Not as well clued up on it all as you lot but does it not seem a little generous @ 6/1 for Hewitt to beat Federer in the semi's?

[heniek31]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Excellent Ed :notworthy. Im glad I let this day go, otherwise it could have been a disaster :tongue2.

[Tulenos]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) I know not many books accept wagers on doubles, but just for the info Martina Navratilova is into semis in mixed doubles and into the 4th round in ladies doubles - if she manages to sin just one of them, she'll be a sole leader of all time tennis charts in the number of wins - now level with King.:) She's 49 and still pretty good.

[rasher]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) I think Davenport is terrific value at 1.43. Mauresmo looked woeful against Myskina and her looped forehand is ridiculous on grass. Davenport on the otherhand is looking lean, putting great depth on her shots and hitting the ball early. I'll also go for under 22.5 games too at 1.9 as I can't see it lasting very long. Rasher

[Borovnica]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Davenport-Mauresmo

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) A quick preview for Day 10's opening match between Davenport-Mauresmo. 50pts Davenport to beat Mauresmo (1.43 @ Betfair) :D 10pts Davenport to win 2-0 (2.06 @ Betfair) :( Davenport leads Mauresmo 8-3 on h2h(although they have never previously met on grass), having won 6(out of 8) of their encounters in straight sets(1 of them involved a Mauresmo retirement, while the other went to 3 sets), I think that just illustrates the gulf in class between the pair. While I'd like to think Mauresmo loves Wimbledon and has a knack of doing well at SW19(made SF appearances on each of her last 2 visits, both times losing to Serena Williams), I'm afraid she doesn't have much in her arsenal to trouble a rejuvenated Davenport who has simply been playing some scintillating tennis. Moreover, Mauresmo simply never ever seems to get the better of players who have a better grasscourt pedigree than she does and Davenport is certainly one of the handful in that league with a F, QF and 2 SF appearances at Wimbledon since she won the title back in 1999. I can't see this being third time lucky for Mauresmo and on the back of the abovementioned stats, I think Davenport 2-0 at above evens is a very decent bet too - although both players come into this clash on the back of having won all their matches 2-0(bar Davenport's encounter against Clijsters), I still think Davenport will have too much for Mauresmo. As for the other SF between Sharapova and Williams, I think that match will be a tighter affair than the bookies will have you believed. For me, Venus is playing some of her best tennis for almost 3 years(especially evident in her last 2 matches against Craybas and Peirce) and her game is actually very similar to Sharapova's in many respects. While Sharapova has won all her matches so far in straight sets, I feel she has certainly pushed her luck a little(as was the case with the couple of let cord breaks which went in her favour against Petrova) and she certainly hasn't been as convincing as Venus performance-wise IMO. It's one of those which could go either way and the value obviously lies with Venus, but my instincts have advised me to leave this one alone - well, unless I can find something like a Venus +5.5 Games handicap... :lol Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 238.95pts Profit/Loss : +138.95pts

[DangerMouse]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Just for the info last years semi-final players are the same but in different order (Serena instead of Venus exception). The scores then are below. Serena Williams USA (1) 6 7 6 Amelie Mauresmo FRA (4) 7 5 4 Lindsay Davenport USA (5) 6 6 1 Maria Sharapova RUS (13) 2 7 6

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July)

Just for the info last years semi-final players are the same but in different order (Serena instead of Venus exception). The scores then are below. Serena Williams USA (1) 6 7 6 Amelie Mauresmo FRA (4) 7 5 4 Lindsay Davenport USA (5) 6 6 1 Maria Sharapova RUS (13) 2 7 6

Venus has replaced Serena this year, mate. ;)

[rcgills]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) A long shot here, but one that statistically seems to have a chance of coming in. Bet365 have the handicap as Mauresmo +4 games, and the tie is included at odds of 7/1. Of the 10 completed matches between these two players, 4 of them have been won by Davenport by exactly 4 games. Like I say, a long shot, but at 7/1 I think it's worth a few quid.

[edtkh]

Re: Tennis : Wimbledon 2005 (20th June - 3rd July) Just thought I'd add another double on the doubles for Day 10... 15pts Mirnyi & Bjorkman(Men's Doubles)-Bryan & Bryan(Men's Doubles) (1.81 @ Gamebookers) Not much to say considering it's pretty obvious given the standings of both pairs as compared to their opponents. Mirnyi & Bjorkman are ranked no.1 by ATP following their French Open success and I don't see Schuettler/Waske providing too much of a test. Similarly, the Bryan brothers who are the doubles' specialists(currently sitting at no.2 in the doubles rankings) and very much the ones to beat in this tourny IMO, should see off Black and Ullyet without too much trouble, considering how poor the pair were in their 3 sets defeat of Zimonjic and Paes yesterday.