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The Saint

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Everything posted by The Saint

  1. Re: BBOTD - Friday 2nd August 450 Goodwood - Ollie Olga I can't recommend you a Bookmaker for this bet because Betfair SP is highly likely to be considerably bigger than the 20s and 18s on offer from the Bookie chaps. Has some ability hiding in there somewhere and actually beat Sky Lantern as a 2yo. Showed up better last time out at Sandown and was carrying a 6lb penalty that day too. Horrible race to bet in really. The Gold Cheongsam would be another that came back to form last time and is a nice price at 10s but whether or not that performance is repeated is anyone's guess. 28/1 wi
  2. Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood)
  3. Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) Fcuking animals! 315 Goodwood - Brown Panther 15/2 @365 & Number Theory 50/1 @365 If Mount Athos returns to his best form of last season then he'll most likely win. On this seasons form though, it's gonna be a massive bunch finish so am happy to play at bigger prices. I'm sure I am cursed :(
  4. Re: BBOTD 1st August 345 Goodwood - Souviens Toi - 8/1 - Bet 365 1/4 of the odds with the above firm so they would be the ones to use if I could! 2/1 to place is massive considering the true odds are closer to 11/10. Added to whiich, you'd get a free bet if she won - oh for a level playing field. Dead 8 going to post as it stands and I see it between the top 3. Wild Coco has overcome an absence before and Elik is unexposed in the context of this race. Souviens Toi isn't the most likely winner but is consistent and arguably improving this season - all be it very marginally. Dissappoin
  5. Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) S Da Silva.... That's 2 from 71 rides around Goodwood over the last 5 seasons. Maybe it's just one of those statistical blips but for someone of his ability it's getting a little silly!!
  6. Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) 245 Goodwood - Miracle Of Medinah, Jallota - 10/1 General, 12/1 General I'm not a massive fan of 2yo races - they can make you look very stupid and I made a complete balls up of yesterdays when oppossing the Hannon thing. Regardless, when they do go to plan they can provide decent returns. I think the favourite is the most likely winner of the race but I do feel his price is based on what he might achieve as well as what he has achieved. Best horse in the race - yep, but too short @ 6/4 that Slybet are currently offering. Thunde
  7. Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) 245 Goodwood - Thunder Strike vs Miracle Of Medinah - Match Bet, Evs - William Hill MOM beat Thunder Strike over 8l last time out. The time before that Thunder Strike didn't run as well at Ascot as he had done at Epsom. Granted, opposing Richard Hughes and a stable in form could make me look stupid but I haven't heard a decent excuse or reason why TS should find 16lbs worth of form to turn over an underrated, less fashionable horse. Maybe the quirky course will help TS find his best form but if it doesn't then RH won't want to ex
  8. Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) With reference to Mount Athos in the 315 - If you absoluely knew that he was going to run to the form when he either won a York Hcap by 4l off 108 or stuffed Brown Panther by 3 n change then he'd probably win today. I'd make him a 5/2 shot and he'd therefore be worth a bet at 7/2 or the 4/1 on offer this morning. For me though, I've not seen that level of form since. The Gp 3 he won at Chester was vs 2 trees, a couple of horses I could outpace and a rival from AOBs that had run appallingly during his previous run and has not been
  9. Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July & if Lanark is overpriced then I guess RC must be too at 66/1 or whatever he is on the exchanges. Surely not good enough though....
  10. Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 340 Goodwood - Lanark - 17/2 - Bet Fred Just overpriced as some of these 2y0s are priced up on their connections and stables. Not far off the top rated and whilst he is an unlikely winner, is still overpriced based on what we have actually seen on the course. SDS rides which given his Goodwood record is not a positive but would be happy to be proven wrong all day long....
  11. Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) Toronado it is then!! 4.1 & drifting.....
  12. Re: The Jockey Thread Watched this with an interest and I agree Secret Number should have done better. SDS had a shocker and let something in on his outside 2f out - at that point he was fecked and it was a case of hoping he got the breaks. He rides a 2yo later that I think is overpriced. I will probably back him but SDS's record around here is SHOCKING!!!! Around 3% which for one of the best Jocks about is pretty poor!! :( Can't give an opinion on who would have won as I've not paid attention to a replay as yet :unsure
  13. Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 305 Goodwood The Key Horse in the race for me could be Mars. Mars was beaten 2.75l by Tornanado and Dawn Approach at Ascot and by 2l over 2f further by Decleration Of War giving the 2 3yos the beating of him by about 3lbs of 1 1/2 lengths over todays distance. Whether or not that equates to Evs, 9/4 & 5/1 I'm not too sure. 'Duel on the Downs' has rightfully and understandably been hyped up by the media but I believe that this has given the Bookie chaps the opportunity to lay the front 2 at artificially low prices. Paddy Power are an
  14. Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System 3 Legs is banned m8 - have an email if u want it. He's a stats man through and through though and as much as I have disscussed many aspects of racing with him, we are too far apart on some things to work together. You can't PM until you have 50 posts though so get posting!!! :ok You are right about the market being very informative at most levels of racing for sure and that's why I've larely stopped playing at that end of the spectrum!! There are some good threads on here that have alot of worthwhile info but they will tend to get lost due to the t
  15. Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July 305 Goodwood - Professor - 9/1 - 365, Hills So I am told it's lashing it down @ Goodwood - difficult enough course as it is!!! :( Mildly annoyed about this and the fact that Aljamaaheer wasn't aimed at the Sussex because I may have taken him to cause a shock at around 16/1 and he would have been penalty free - would have given us 8 runners in the Sussex too. Not sure soft ground is gonna help this ones chance and I think that could go against Producer too. 3yo's have a great record in the race having produced 46% of the winners from 31% of the runner
  16. Re: BBOTD Sunday 28th 405 Pontefract - Arsaadi - 13/2 - Hills, Ladbrokes Poor strike rate but ran well in the Hunt Cup and then behind Galacian lto. Galacian franked that form yesterday in winning a valuable hcap and I'm not sure the market has taken that into account. Haggas stable also in rude health. Trade Commissioner just behind in the Hunt Cup and has a winning chance but I'll want a few ticks bigger before getting involved whilst Mont Ras is also one I'll consider if he goes a little bigger - is a course and distance winner and if on a going day, sees his races out well - I fancy
  17. Re: Flat Racing - Saturday 27th of July :clap Very well done m8 - Mr Hindsight says I should have just kept it simple and laid CDA :sad 9.4 Betfair SP!!!!!!!!!
  18. Re: BBOTD Sat 27th July 2013 350 Ascot - Very Nice Name - 25/1 - Bet 365 This price is gonna go so happy to elaborate in a sec! Has form that ties n with the pricipals but is about 5 times the price!! Too big. Has to prove Meydan run wasn't a fluke but at 25/1, I'm happy to take that chance. Am fully lining myself up to look very stupid here but I cannot see why the 'best horse in training' is a 6/4 shot. Cirrus Des Aigles is in my 10-to-follow, I've traded all over him at the 7/4 that was available this morning and has the best form available by about 5 lengths!! However, I can come
  19. Yep - similar approach - just differing a little on staking. Out of interest, I guess you are treating the 20% on top of your tissue as in the 4/1 shot, you'd be looking to secure 4.8/1 I use 5% but that's 5% of the book. So if I make a horse 4/1(20%), I'll want to achieve just over 11/2(6.7 exchange odds I think - which is around 15%). I often think I'm too tight and have no idea which method would work best. As long as they both do!! Back to EW - apologies for hijack!
  20. Re: Each way betting Thanks K - that makes perfect sense now. Your above is intersting - concerning the 6/1 shots. My personal approach in this situation would be to back all 3 of them (EW too!!) for my full stake. I think most seem to split their stake for the race amongst the 2 or 3 selections they fancy or consider value. I don't do this becasue I'd almost feel robbed when one does go in. You are, of course, more likely to back the winner of any given race if you back 2 of the field or 3 of the field as opposed to one so I try and play up this advantage. If your prices are right and
  21. Re: Flat Racing Friday 26th July 345 Ascot - 340/1 Sweetnessandlight....?! Can't win surely but I've seen many, many worse at this price..... 4th to Dank a few runs back??! Or not..... :$
  22. Re: Each way betting I may have been unclear... What I mean is that ANY winning/profitable set of results will be better off as WIN only as opposed to EW. I mean obv not if a punter hits 100 2nd places in a row but that isn't likely. Don't get me wrong - I DO back EW because I am phychologically too weak to back Win Only. Through Royal Ascot I was a pittence up because I backed EW. I'd have been miles down win only but long term over a season I'm confident win only will pay more - just not convinced it's best for me!! In your example above - I must be misunderstanding.... £2 win at
  23. Re: Each way betting With most of the horses I back, I don't think they are the most likely winner in the race because I'm picking what I consider to be overpriced horses as opposed to the most likely winner. That having been said, I'll only back anything that I consider to be within 7lbs of the most likely winner. There is no set of long term profitbale results that will show as good a return betting EW than win only but it's about the phychological blanket that EW provides and maintaining confidence as opposed to maximising profit. It's well proven I don't handle losing runs well - thi
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