The Saint

Re: BBOTD - Friday 2nd August 450 Goodwood - Ollie Olga I can't recommend you a Bookmaker for this bet because Betfair SP is highly likely to be considerably bigger than the 20s and 18s on offer from the Bookie chaps. Has some ability hiding in there somewhere and actually beat Sky Lantern as a 2yo. Showed up better last time out at Sandown and was carrying a 6lb penalty that day too. Horrible race to bet in really. The Gold Cheongsam would be another that came back to form last time and is a nice price at 10s but whether or not that performance is repeated is anyone's guess. 28/1 with 32Red if we can use them, SP if we can't.... :(

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood)

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) Fcuking animals! 315 Goodwood - Brown Panther 15/2 @365 & Number Theory 50/1 @365 If Mount Athos returns to his best form of last season then he'll most likely win. On this seasons form though, it's gonna be a massive bunch finish so am happy to play at bigger prices. I'm sure I am cursed :(

Re: BBOTD 1st August 345 Goodwood - Souviens Toi - 8/1 - Bet 365 1/4 of the odds with the above firm so they would be the ones to use if I could! 2/1 to place is massive considering the true odds are closer to 11/10. Added to whiich, you'd get a free bet if she won - oh for a level playing field. Dead 8 going to post as it stands and I see it between the top 3. Wild Coco has overcome an absence before and Elik is unexposed in the context of this race. Souviens Toi isn't the most likely winner but is consistent and arguably improving this season - all be it very marginally. Dissappointed me here on seasonal reappearence but will put it down to being ring rusty! Hopefully BP run well in the Goodwood Cup(will stamina hold out?) which may cause the odds to tumble given that she chased him home last time out.

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) S Da Silva.... That's 2 from 71 rides around Goodwood over the last 5 seasons. Maybe it's just one of those statistical blips but for someone of his ability it's getting a little silly!!

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) 245 Goodwood - Miracle Of Medinah, Jallota - 10/1 General, 12/1 General I'm not a massive fan of 2yo races - they can make you look very stupid and I made a complete balls up of yesterdays when oppossing the Hannon thing. Regardless, when they do go to plan they can provide decent returns. I think the favourite is the most likely winner of the race but I do feel his price is based on what he might achieve as well as what he has achieved. Best horse in the race - yep, but too short @ 6/4 that Slybet are currently offering. Thunder Strike and Sayeer didn't show their best last time so I will probably take the 2 above against the fav.

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) 245 Goodwood - Thunder Strike vs Miracle Of Medinah - Match Bet, Evs - William Hill MOM beat Thunder Strike over 8l last time out. The time before that Thunder Strike didn't run as well at Ascot as he had done at Epsom. Granted, opposing Richard Hughes and a stable in form could make me look stupid but I haven't heard a decent excuse or reason why TS should find 16lbs worth of form to turn over an underrated, less fashionable horse. Maybe the quirky course will help TS find his best form but if it doesn't then RH won't want to expand any extra energy in the finish. Regardless - I think MOM is the better horse. Same Bet with similar argument, Thunder Strike vs Jallota available too.

Re: Flat Racing - Thursday 1st of August (Day 3 Goodwood) With reference to Mount Athos in the 315 - If you absoluely knew that he was going to run to the form when he either won a York Hcap by 4l off 108 or stuffed Brown Panther by 3 n change then he'd probably win today. I'd make him a 5/2 shot and he'd therefore be worth a bet at 7/2 or the 4/1 on offer this morning. For me though, I've not seen that level of form since. The Gp 3 he won at Chester was vs 2 trees, a couple of horses I could outpace and a rival from AOBs that had run appallingly during his previous run and has not been seen since. On the level of form he is showing this season I'd think he is around a 7/1 shot and if you believe that he won't be back to his best today then it makes this race almost compulsory to bet in as value must be elsewhere! NOT saying that he won't win or can't win - just that he's not shown his best form yet this season. The other thing that would concern me would be that it is well established that his long term target is the Melbourne Cup. If he wins this handsomly, the hcap mark goes up and his chances in the MC go down. Do connections want that? On the other hand, does he need his rating to remain consistent in order to make the cut for the Ozy race? Not looked at entries and not inclined to do so. I'll be backing at least one against him today given the odds on offer but good luck to all that are backing him... WHY do I say that!??!?!? Good Luck if I'm not backing in the race - but I AM!!! Good Luck in another race that I'm not involved in!!! ;)

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July & if Lanark is overpriced then I guess RC must be too at 66/1 or whatever he is on the exchanges. Surely not good enough though....

Re: BBOTD Wednesday 31st July 340 Goodwood - Lanark - 17/2 - Bet Fred Just overpriced as some of these 2y0s are priced up on their connections and stables. Not far off the top rated and whilst he is an unlikely winner, is still overpriced based on what we have actually seen on the course. SDS rides which given his Goodwood record is not a positive but would be happy to be proven wrong all day long....

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) Toronado it is then!! 4.1 & drifting.....

Re: The Jockey Thread Watched this with an interest and I agree Secret Number should have done better. SDS had a shocker and let something in on his outside 2f out - at that point he was fecked and it was a case of hoping he got the breaks. He rides a 2yo later that I think is overpriced. I will probably back him but SDS's record around here is SHOCKING!!!! Around 3% which for one of the best Jocks about is pretty poor!! :( Can't give an opinion on who would have won as I've not paid attention to a replay as yet :unsure

Re: Flat Racing ~ Wednesday 31st (Day 2 Goodwood) 305 Goodwood The Key Horse in the race for me could be Mars. Mars was beaten 2.75l by Tornanado and Dawn Approach at Ascot and by 2l over 2f further by Decleration Of War giving the 2 3yos the beating of him by about 3lbs of 1 1/2 lengths over todays distance. Whether or not that equates to Evs, 9/4 & 5/1 I'm not too sure. 'Duel on the Downs' has rightfully and understandably been hyped up by the media but I believe that this has given the Bookie chaps the opportunity to lay the front 2 at artificially low prices. Paddy Power are and have been best price over DA all morning so they are either dead against it or are after some severe publicity.... If there were 8 going to post then DOW would be a fantastic EW bet. Still might be but 8 runners would have been nice. Has been as high as 7.2 on the exchanges and that's probably the price I'd want in order to get involved but it's not forthcoming as yet. In fact, I think Gregorian and Trade Storm are both too big a price too - that having been said though, I don't think they are good enough to challenge the front 2 and it's unlikey that the front 3 in the betting all fail to give their running. For interests sake, Dawn Approach 9/4 Toranado 5/2 D of War 4/1 Gregorian 11/1 Trade Storm 11/1 Leitir Mor 40/1 Reply 350/1 That's to 100% roughly. Won't be laying at these prices because I don't have to! Hope Dawn Approach and Toranado provide a great spectacle for the sport - it's the most likely outcome by far. I just don't think it's quite as likely as the market would have you believe. No bet at this stage for me - Good Luck to all that are playing though

Re: The Bleedin' Obvious Laying System 3 Legs is banned m8 - have an email if u want it. He's a stats man through and through though and as much as I have disscussed many aspects of racing with him, we are too far apart on some things to work together. You can't PM until you have 50 posts though so get posting!!! :ok You are right about the market being very informative at most levels of racing for sure and that's why I've larely stopped playing at that end of the spectrum!! There are some good threads on here that have alot of worthwhile info but they will tend to get lost due to the tipping threads and alot of things have been said before. I'll find some later if I have time and you're still here! ;)

Re: BBOTD Tuesday 29th July 305 Goodwood - Professor - 9/1 - 365, Hills So I am told it's lashing it down @ Goodwood - difficult enough course as it is!!! :( Mildly annoyed about this and the fact that Aljamaaheer wasn't aimed at the Sussex because I may have taken him to cause a shock at around 16/1 and he would have been penalty free - would have given us 8 runners in the Sussex too. Not sure soft ground is gonna help this ones chance and I think that could go against Producer too. 3yo's have a great record in the race having produced 46% of the winners from 31% of the runners since 2003. With that in mind Garswood may go well but had no excuse in the Jersey which is a Group 3 so I'll chance Professor at the odds. Has a bit of Selkirk in the breeding and has won on good to soft already so may not be inconvenienced by the underfoot conditions. Looks a tiny horse but still improving and has a good draw.