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Weekly Nap Competition, Day 7, Saturday 6th June

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robertob

robertob

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Re: Weekly Nap Competition, Day 7, Saturday 6th June 4.30 Epsom: English Derby, Group 1, 1m 4f 10y Golden Horn: Favourite, impressive winner of the Dante Stakes. as the key trial. I marked him as one to follow in my Horses To Follow article. Hard to oppose on form but question mark is the trip. I have him down as a 10f horse, though he might be able to stretch out to the Derby distance. Whether he stays the trip is not really the question, though, it's more whether he's able to stay it in a way that enables him to beat horses who are certain to get it. Jack Hobbs: Runaway winner of a Sandown Handicap. Proved his class in Dante with good runner-up effort. Clearly not yet the finished article and fair chance to stay the trip. That says his dam hasn't produced a winner over 12f yet. Likely to improve again but has to do so if he wants to go close. Elm Park: Racingpost Trophy winner. Didn't do anything wrong when third in Dante on seasonal reappearance. He'll come on for that and I expect him to finish much closer to Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs this time. He clearly stays, will get the trip, but has to prove he can be top class on better ground. However if there is anything soft in the ground come 4.30 Saturday afternoon he must have a prime chance. Giovanni Canaletto: Another one from my Horses To Follow list. Lightly raced, this lack of experience may count against him. But he looked smart when winning a minor race as a juvenile and his comeback run a fortnight ago was promising the way he finished from a poor position. He's a full-brother to 2013 Derby winner Ruler Of The World and should improve for the trip. Like his big brother, he's fitted with cheep-pieces for the Derby. Epicuris: Group 1 winner in heavy conditions as a juvenile. Form doesn't really work out, and not too exciting on seasonal reappearance when only 2nd in Group 3. Known for his problems in the preliminaries of a race and unclear if he can be fully effective on better ground. Hans Holbein: Lightly raced Chester Vase winner. Probably needs soft ground and more of a Leger type. Big question mark whether he's quick enough to win the Derby. Kilimanjaro: Witnessed with my own eyes when this lad got the mark in a Dundalk maiden back in April. Won the Derby Trial at Lingfield since then. Fair type but I find it hard to see him good enough to win a Derby. Moheet: Looked exciting as a juvenile but hasn't fulfilled promise in couple of starts this year. He may improve with time and experience but the Derby distance looks very ambitious. Storm The Stars: One of the more experienced individuals, yet he looked still a big baby in his races. Took him a while to get off the mark but clearly progressing and the trip is in his blood. Might be up with the pace and wouldn't mind making all if needed. Very dangerous if allowed an easy lead. Success Days: Progressive and impressive in Ireland this year. Likely needs it soft to be seen to best effect and very dubious stayer on pedigree. Rogue Runner: German raider who won two minor races in his native country. May improve for the step up to Derby trip but very hard to see him good enough to land a blow. Carbon Dating: Still a maiden, big chance to finish last. Verdict: Ground seems key. If there are any soft patches in the ground I believe Elm Park must go really close. But with the ground probably drying out over night, I feel there are others races later the year which are likely to suit better. Golden Horn is top class and will go close if he truly gets the trip. But given his very short price is easily opposable. I admit I'm not getting warm with Jack Hobbs and don't see why he is shorter than a couple of others. He's a good horse and may even develop into top class, but for now I have Elm Park higher in the packing order. However it's clearly Giovanni Canaletto who gets the nod from me. I have a 16/1 ante-post bet on him, but he's still a 9/1 chance, which strikes me as too big - therefore I nominate him as my selection for the Derby. He's clearly classy, has the right credentials on pedigree and first time headgear should help to settle and focus when it matters. Giovanni Canaletto @ 9/1 Paddy Power

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arsenalfh

arsenalfh

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Re: Weekly Nap Competition, Day 7, Saturday 6th June 3:45 Epsom David Nicholls knows what it takes to win the Dash and he has a contender in Pearl Acclaim who's tumbled down the weights. He was beaten 3.25L by the progressive Out Do last time who has since finished 2nd in a Listed race while the 2nd and 4th have also won since so the form looks strong. Now racing off 87 on quick ground from a nice draw in stall 9 conditions look ideal for a big run. Pearl Acclaim - 0.5pts each-way @ 25/1 >PaddyPower

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BARNSLEYCHOP

BARNSLEYCHOP

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Re: Weekly Nap Competition, Day 7, Saturday 6th June 3.45 EPSOM STEPS @ 14/1 Paddy Power Will always need a bit of luck with his style of running in a race like this but will love the pace that will be set. Just failed to get there last year when beaten 3/4l after a slow start and being hampered. 1lb lower this year and was only given a blowout on seasonal debut so should be spot on for this. Varian has a good record at this time of year

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Dund0n

Dund0n

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Re: Weekly Nap Competition, Day 7, Saturday 6th June 5.15 Epsom - Buthelezi win @ 18/1 BetVictor Won a decent handicap at Musselburgh 2 runs ago over 1m 6f. He was stepped up in trip and into a deeper race lto at Chester in the Chester Cup and ran well for a long way from the front before fading inside the final furlong and eventually finishing 7th. The drop to 1m 4f should suit better than the 2m 2f of the Chester Cup and this does looks slightly easier. He is on the same mark as his last run, and while this would require a career best on the flat, if he runs like he did last time he should go close. He'll go on any ground so the going isn't a problem.

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santos_

santos_

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Re: Weekly Nap Competition, Day 7, Saturday 6th June Epsom 4.30: Success Days, 1pts win, 16/1 Bet365 Has looked pretty useful but on much softer ground then he will encounter today so hard to know if he will be as effective. Needs to step up but one at big odds who could go well.

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BillyHills

BillyHills

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Re: Weekly Nap Competition, Day 7, Saturday 6th June 200 Epsom: Cosmic Ray 16/1 Skybet Wears the hood for the first time and has ran well on the course before so at the odds looks worth a punt. Trainer Andrew Balding's horse are running well and although this horse has been beaten off this mark there are possibilities he can improve. A faster pace will help him settle and the hood should keep his mind on the job. Big price.

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Boulder5111

Boulder5111

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Re: Weekly Nap Competition, Day 7, Saturday 6th June N6.40 Cabelo e/w 14/1 Betvictor Brian Ellison has a string of jockeys he uses like T Hamilton, T Eaves, D Swift etc but when he puts one of the big guns up, it's usually for a reason and he's got S De Souza on board at one of his local tracks here tonight. This 3-y-o is unexposed and its sole win to date came under identical conditions to those it gets here. Just 2lb higher now and this price looks way too big.

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Trotter

Trotter

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Re: Weekly Nap Competition, Day 7, Saturday 6th June 4.30 Epsom - Moheet - win at 33/1 bog wm hill The derby this horse was my EW selection in the Guineas - he finished 8th after the rider lost an iron coming out of the stalls and then he collided with another horse later in the race The fact that he appeared to be careering around a bit at Newmarket doesn't bode well for handling Epsom but I'll give him another chance. Should be suited by 12f

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PeterX

PeterX

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Re: Weekly Nap Competition, Day 7, Saturday 6th June DUTCH UNCLE. 2:00 Epsom. Was third LTO in a hot race at Newbury, beaten 4L behind TIME TEST. that's red hot form in my opinion and the 6th horse has since won a good race at Newmarket. Dutch Uncle is in an slightly easier looking race today, looks well handicapped and at 8/1 looks a good price with Bet365

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Rainbow

Rainbow

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Re: Weekly Nap Competition, Day 7, Saturday 6th June 2.00 epsom cosmic ray would appear to have a fair chance in first time headgear, as likes to dictate the pace and this race could well go his way if in the mood. goes up in trip also, and that in itself could bring about some improvement and i think he will stay. a few questions to answer, but off a mark of 77 he could go close if improving a little for the trip and headgear. 1pt win 16/1 betvictor bog

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