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Nap of the Day - Thursday 27th November 2014

btugero

By btugero
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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chris34

chris34

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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 27th November 2014 4.55 Kempton Chelwood Gate has tumbled in the weights but needs to show a lot more before getting involved. Byrd In Hand appears to have gone off the boil recently, Zed Candy Girl also looks a little high in the handicap for now. Tevez is often used as a gamble horse, not shown much this year and best watched unless money comes. Spririt Gondree usually runs hia race, not always the easiest to win with and never won off a mark this high although Kirby has a good record with him. Cadmium has won her last 2 starts and clearly not exposed yet, however last win over CD does not look a strong race at all with those behind giving the form plenty of appalling knocks. Latest rise of 4lb is not harsh but this looks a stronger race on paper. Flamborough Breeze might be the one to take a chance on, yard having a fair spell with a winner in last 7 days from 2 runners. She showed improved form last time out over CD in refitted blinkers. They are left off today and although worn them before she is yet to win in headgear so no reason to have major concerns. She looks well handicapped 4lb below last winning mark now and Morris a good booking. 1pt win Flamborough Breeze 3/1 bet365

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kev2oo9

kev2oo9

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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 27th November 2014 2.20 Taunton - Fairy Alisha 1pt win 3/1 bet365 only 4 runners go to post here and on paper looks between this and Cloudy Spirit , Cloudy Spirit won lto but looked a bit fortunate as Prettyasapicture was travelling well until falling 2 out , that has been raised 5lbs so might struggle to give 6lbs to Fairy Alisha. Returns from a break of 6 months , last seen winning a hcap hurdle off 93 incl conditionals claim in a raise thats worked out ok , with a couple of wins and few places, raised 9lbs in h.cap so off 109 tomorrow but has returned fresh before winning once and placing when coming back from a break. Only 6yo and with 14 starts under rules , there could still be more to come.

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Aidymac

Aidymac

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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 27th November 2014 Kempton 6:25 - Them And Us WIN @ 9/1 Sky Bet Won nicely on debut at Ripon, certainly has the makings of a very nice horse on that run. Disappointed at Doncaster when 6th last time out but th ground was very testing that day, looks like he prefers a better surface. Off a decent mark here, Baker a plus.

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arsenalfh

arsenalfh

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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 27th November 2014 2:10 Newbury Southfield Theatre is a rightly favourite after two good runs over fences but is well too short in a race where conditions aren't ideal and there looks to be value elsewhere. He's giving away 7lbs to Carraig Mor who never fulfilled his potential over hurdles but after time to mature and very soft ground to suit I can see him running a big race. He was running well before blundering the 4th from home last time out and looks could have the ability to cause an upset here. Carraig More - Win @ 5/2 Bet365

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Dund0n

Dund0n

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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 27th November 2014 6.55 Kempton - Albonny win @ 6/1 Bet365 Albonny has been a bit out of sorts recently but his last few runs have been on turf where he doesn't seem to be as effective. In 15 turf runs he has won once whereas in 5 all weather runs he has 3 wins so a return to the AW looks favourable today. He is also 3 from 4 over C&D. The last time he was on the AW was indeed over C&D and he won in a similar strength event from just a 1lb higher mark. He won by over 2 lengths so the 1lb extra shouldn't be too much of a problem as he looks fairly handicapped and he should run well. Luke Morris has won on him before and looks a good booking.

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santos_

santos_

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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 27th November 2014 Taunton 2.55 - The Winking Prawn (1pts win, 5/1 BetVictor) Looked as if he could be handy at this level with a promising bumper win and followed that up with two solid maiden hurdle runs. Now comes handicapping and could do better in this sphere.

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robertob

robertob

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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 27th November 2014 18.25 Kempton: Nursery (Class 2) - Muradif: Top rated, progressive & good form since winning a Nursery off 9lb lower over CD. Followed up with strong 2nd, and fair performances last two. Should appreciate drop in trip & cheek-pieces may help to focus better. - Vegas Rebel: Very progressive in recent week. Won at Brighton, beaten by narrow margins last two, including seven days ago over CD. Quickly turned out again and can race off same mark. Obvious chance. - Colour Party: Easy maiden winner over 7f at Wolverhampton fortnight ago following up on fine runner-up in hot Newmarket maiden. Lightly raced, Handicap debut. Fair mark and more to come. - Them And Us: Lightly raced winner on racecourse debut, not entirely disgraced in hot Doncaster Nursery. Chance if takes to All-Weather. - Zaza Zest: Improved for step up in trip and slower Southwell surface when landing poor maiden a fortnight ago. Much more required here and not exactly an exciting AW pedigree. - Cascading Stars: Runner-up last three starts over 7-8f. Seems in grip of handicapper and good deal of improvement required against much tougher opposition. - Almoqatel: Debut for new yard, won CD claimer in September. Very hard to fancy on Handicap form. Verdict: This is a really interesting Nursery which can go either way. The only won to oppose easily are the two lowest rated individuals. They should find this here way too tough. Favourite Colour Party looks a nicely progressive sort. She was a fine 2nd in a hot Newmarket maiden and broke the tag with an impressive perfomance at Wolverhampton. The merit of that particular form is questionable, but her opening mark is fair and she is open to any kind of improvement. Her current price looks fair but nothing else though. Muradif is sure to appreciate the drop in trip. He ran with credit the last two but found the trip to far. He is a CD winner but on balance he doesn't appear to be well handicapped. Vegas Rebel's close second in a hot class 3 Nursery at Newbury is probably the stand out piece of form in this field. He was agonisingly defeated by a tight margin subsequently at Kempton again, but going off the same mark here tonight, he must rate a very good chance to be right there when it matters. He looks overpriced at 11/2. Them And Us could be an interesting runner if he takes to the All-Weather. A winner on debut and not disgraced in a hot race subsequently, he may be open to more improvement and he is getting backed off the boards at the moment. Zaza Zest is another one who may have still more to offer, even though the merit of her recent Southwell win is questionable and the switch back to polytrack not sure to suit. Vegas Rebel @ 11/2 VC

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BillyHills

BillyHills

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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 27th November 2014 2.45 Newbury: Ned Stark 7/4 PP/Skybet This Alan King horse was a promising sort when novice hurdling last year and started off with a promising second to Mosspark at Exeter. He was then pulled out several times before finally winning easily at Chepstow in April. Rated just 130 here which seems a few pounds light to me and won on his chasing debut at Huntingdon despite needing the run so has some experience in the bank. Those connected are hoping he's much better than this grade so needs to win here before being considered for bigger targets down the line.

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Boulder5111

Boulder5111

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Re: Nap of the Day - Thursday 27th November 2014 N1.35 Church Hall 1pt Win 14/1 William Hill It's on the side at Newbury and this horse has only encountered genuinely soft ground on two occasions, winning one and about to win the other until falling at the last. The horse was staying on well in those races and the extra furlong today should be perfect. The run last time out can be ignored (it stumbled and the ground was probably too lively) but as a result the horse is arguably a bigger price here than it should be.

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