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Nap of the day 5th november 2014

corky

By corky
in At The Races - Racing Forum

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Smarty72

Smarty72

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Re: Nap of the day 5th november 2014 14.30 Warwick - Class 3 Novice Chase - 2m - Ground Currently Good To Soft 5 runners with only 3 worth looking at. Grumeti - 6yo trained by Alan King making 2nd start over fences after winning on chase debut at Bangor in May. Decent hurdler and was 3rd in the Triumph Hurdle in 2012. Highly tried in hurdles but was never quite able to challange the top horses in the 2m hurdling division but performed with credit a number of times. Was impressive on chase debut jumping well and an easy winner. Carrys a 5lb penalty for that win. 24 career races so unlikely to be progressive but sets a good standard and will be hard to beat. My one concern is the flat pedigree and that previous run over fences may be flattering by the poor opposition, could be vulnerable with the penalty. Vibrato Valtat - 5yo trained by Paul Nicholls making chase debut. Had a recent run over hurdles so race fit and likely to be a decent chaser. Should be suited by race distance running all his races around the 2m distance. 2 hurdles wins at around the 2m distance and has run some good races in hurdles against decent opposition. Thomas Crapper - 7yo trained by Robin Dicken and having 2nd run over fences. Was 3rd behind Court Minstrel recently at Cheltenham with Chris Pea Green 2nd in that race (also 2nd on Sunday at Huntingdon). Again had plenty of career races with a total of 20 with 4 hurdles wins (2 @ 2m and 2 @ 2m 5f). Could be lacking pace to quicken in a 2m chase against 2 rivals much better suited to a 2m race. Vibrato Valtat although making his chase debut is race fit and will be suited by the race distance of 2 miles. The 5lb penalty for Grumeti makes it tough for that horse and Thomas Crapper probably would be better racing over a longer race distance. 1pt Win - Vibrato Valtat @ 2/1 Bet365 BOG

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Trotter

Trotter

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Re: Nap of the day 5th november 2014 Nice write up Smarty ! I'm gong with...... 2.30 Warwick - Grumeti - win at 5/4 bet365 Unlike Smarty I have 2 concerns with Grumeti. One is the flat pedigree as Flat horses very rarely make good chasers as they tend to be more fragile and not as big and strong. However Grumeti has already won over jumps and jumped well so that worry is lessened somewhat. My other concern is that he hasn't run since May and doesn't have a particularly good record after a break and neither really does his trainer, his horses tend to need a run. However he does look a class above these having won at grade 2 and grade 1 levels as a hurdler and competed in some of the top races. I'm taking the chance that he will beat these even if not 100% ready This could be a bit a bit sharp for Thomas Crapper who seems to want at least 2.5 miles on a stiff track. He'll probably be outpaced here unless there's torrential rain and it turns 'heavy' Vibrato Valtat has been a beaten favourite on 6 occasions and doesn't always appear to put it in the race finish, he's a bit of a weak finisher and looks vulnerable to anything that wants to battle. On the other hand he looks ideally suited by small fields, conditions are fine and he has won at Listed level. He looks the main danger

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chris34

chris34

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Re: Nap of the day 5th november 2014 7.10 Kempton A listed event lacking much depth with several of these needing to find a lot on form they have shown to date. Chiberta King is a fair yardstick but hasn’t been seen for nearly a year and this is on the short side these days. Grendisar is a AW specialist and was last seen finishing runner up on AW Champions day in the apprentice handicap, up 5lb for that effort giving him an OR of 102 now. Record fresh is reasonable and therefore has to be respected. Rydan is another not to discredit completely he bolted up over a 1f shorter around here in September, up 11lb for that effort giving him an OR of 97. That race didn’t look that strong and hasn’t worked out since. Needs to step forward again at this level but not without hope. For me Fire Fighting looks a ridiculous price having won 3 times this year and kept busy. Ran a great race last time out in a large field handicap at Newmarket running right up to his mark looking like he has a few lb in hand. Has a good record around here 3 runs with 1 win and 2 3rds. 1pt win Fire Fighting 5/2 bet365

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Boulder5111

Boulder5111

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Re: Nap of the day 5th november 2014 C3.15 Theregoesthetruth 1pt win 14/1 Skybet Needs soft or heavy ground which it gets here and will strip fitter now after blowing up on its seasonal debut last time out (first run in over 2 years so can be excused fitness issues). The trainer has struck a real good vein of form since with a 33/1 winner and a neck 2nd at 25/1 in his last 3 runners so plenty of reasons to think this horse might go close on its favoured ground here.

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Dund0n

Dund0n

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Re: Nap of the day 5th november 2014 8.10 Kempton - Reimpose win @ 8/1 PaddyPower Reimpose hasn't run a good race since winning her maiden here in December. However after having an initial mark of 66 she is now down to 55 and that seems like a fair mark in what looks to be a very winnable handicap. Reimpose is the only horse to win in the line up and is in turn the horse with the best form on the surface as the rest only share a couple of places on artificial surfaces. The form of her maiden hasn't really worked out but the horse that finished 5th won from a mark of 68, the 9th has been performing well on 70+ and the 10th won off a mark of 57 so if Reimpose can match some of the form of the horses she beat she has to have a chance on this mark. As with the rest of this field she comes with her doubts, the major one being that she has never run over a trip this far before so it may stretch her stamina. However with the return to a track where she has performed well, the 7lb drop in the weights since lto, the weak race and the fact that she is the only horse with a win in the field makes reimpose look like a decent bet at the price.

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santos_

santos_

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Re: Nap of the day 5th november 2014 Nottm 3.25 - Spider Lily (1pts win, 10/1 Bet365) Back on turf today after 2 All Weather runs and when she last ran on turf rattled up a hat trick of wins including at this course. 5 furlongs is no problem the only question mark could be the ground as all her wins came on good ground but if she handles it will be a chance.

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FedericoBTH

FedericoBTH

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Re: Nap of the day 5th november 2014 12.20 NOTTINGHAM (Class 4 - 5f Nursery) SNOW CLOUD @11/10 (BETFRED #BOG) The ground switch from GS to Good announced half an hour ago is perfect for Snow Cloud who probably just needed a slightly faster surface to win in her last two efforts (both times came second). This 2yo filly broke her maiden tag over firm ground so good conditions should be perfect for her and this field of four doesn't look unbeatable for the O'Meara trained girl. Trainer loves sprints and finally gave the ride to his best jockey in Danny Tudhope (partnership above 16.5% strike rate after more than 1000 races). My big concern is the recent form of trainer and jockey and the fact this kind of race usually is more complicated than how it looks on paper. Anyway, missed 6/5 on Ladbrokes by seconds I gladly take 11/10 for a probable odds-on favourite (market is clearly pushing on her atm).

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Aidymac

Aidymac

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Re: Nap of the day 5th november 2014 Chepstow 1:10 - Warrantor WIN @ 9/2 Bet Victor Went off Evens for a maiden hurdle at Plumpton last month and although he finished 4th, he ran well and hinted that he is well up to taking a race of this nature, and I think 9/2 is very big. The yard are flying at the moment, 6 of his last 12 runners have won.

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BillyHills

BillyHills

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Re: Nap of the day 5th november 2014 3.05 Warwick: Mendip Express 11/8 SJ/lads Mendip Express won three times over fences last season and is currently rated 144, he takes on a horse here back over hurdles who is rated 125 and receives 7lbs . The other main danger is rated just 115 but is obviously open to improvement. Trainer Harry Fry is in good nick and is aiming this useful sort at the Welsh National and while i don't expect him to be 100% he really ought to be good enough to win this comfortably.

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