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"Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield)

zbrochu

By zbrochu
in Betting Systems & Strategy

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zbrochu

zbrochu

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (95 picks +37% yield)

Palermo hadn't won away all season - until now! Where - and how did you find that one? p
I estimated they had ~30% maybe ~35% chance and was lucky to win this one :) That's all, no magic :)
do you email the asian handicap advice? i have not been getting those to my email :(
No, asians are just a trial in the background. I said to my subscribers, if you want to track them please feel free to do so, but I do not confuse them with main picks. I always post information on homepage when I update asians.
with the main season coming to an end , do you bet on the 'summer' leagues ?
No, I take a break and relaunch in early August. September and October are the best months for betting IMO, cant wait for this period!
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harry_rag

harry_rag

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (95 picks +37% yield) Cheers, great work. Regretting picking up on this thread so late in the season. Missed 3/1 Palermo last night but luckily didn't let that put me off taking the 14/5 still available today!

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stinkinggonads

stinkinggonads

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) aahhh zbrochu when we had Palermo I reluctantly placed the bet for my full stakes... I thought no way they can win away, and WTF happens this reminds me to just shut up and follow advice of zbrochu shame about parma, they could have won where do you get such good odds of 4.05 on palermo I got 3.77 from pinnacle (damn), they're always lower after you pick them, e.g. last week st mirren was 7.9 then all I got was 7.22 is it still safe to bet so close to the end of the season? I heard end of season would be unreliable? Or maybe better for underdogs?

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zbrochu

zbrochu

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) Yeah, shame about Parma - luckily I personally had them also in handicap so at least it broke even. I had 4.05 Palermo and I concerns me that sometimes odds drop once I send emails. However, some times it does not happen, it depends on league and popularity of the game and day of posting (this is main reasons I have switched do daygame alerts recently). But this is still a serious concern...I will have to do something with it soon. It is not safe to bet so close to the end of the season but I think I know what I am doing. I have been quite rigorous in selection process these weeks and it seems it pays off because all bets that I gave up on, happened to be the losing ones. We will see what I can find, previous years I had decent results in last months so we should be fine. Many weak teams have extra motivation to escape relegation zone so this might be good for us some times. And thanks for writing SG!

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stinkinggonads

stinkinggonads

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) Yes, I mentioned odds difference because I read on your site, difference between 2.00 v 1.9 odds or 1.95 v 1.9 odds, over a year, in yield it is massive. Going down from 7.9 -> 7.22 and 4.05 -> 3.77 is quite big. It always happens with me unfortunately, even using pinnacle. Or perhaps 75% of the time, sometimes I get odds to stay the same. Maybe I should find some other bookies but I thought no one is better than pinnacle overall. I agree, maybe your bets in end of season are doing so well because lower teams really are fighting for it now. Palermo, for example. I was wondering how you could start the bets in August with no current season data to make your picks on? Or do you wait for Aug/Sept to play before starting selections in October? I am sad to see Telford relegated from the conference. I hope my favorite team, Barrow, don't go down as well :( Sad times for some of our favorite underdogs at the moment... Well it's excellent that you're making less picks then, if you're avoiding all the losers ;-) Your strike rate has been increasing lately...

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zbrochu

zbrochu

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) Yes, 4.05 and 3.77 might be quite a difference. BUT! If I am able to make 42% ROI from 4.05 odds it means it has probability of 1.42/4.05=35%. It means that if you bet the game later with odds 3.77 you will have yield = 3.77*0.35= 1.32. +32% is still pretty decent yield if you ask me. Most professionals are happy with +5% yield. I am not a bank, I am a gambler - it is a tough game and each of us needs to find best way to earn maximum for himself. And I do not think you will find better bookie than Pinny, maybe Betfair in some games? There is different situation if we speak about asian handicaps. And it is what I meant when you said you read it on my site. Because difference of 2.00 vs 1.90 is big here, because my expected yield is 12% there. So for odds it is 1.12/2=56% probability. If someone takes the same bet with 1.90 odds, he is expected for his yield to fall to +6.4%. However, asian handicaps are more liquid and some times if one is late to place my bets, he can actually get better price than me because they go up and down like crazy. Regarding your question about August, I love betting in August! It is true that it is super early and it is tough to estimate a real strenght and price for the teams, but remember - bookmakers are humans too! They also use limited information and have to price up plenty of games very quickly. Sunday games end and they usually by Tuesday are ready with the offer for next weekend. And they must set odds for ALL games, they cant pass as we do! If you as a punter made your homework during transfer window and you stayed close to important information in second period of 2012/2013 season (which is now) you can use this information to estimate strenght of teams in August. It is not easy, but again - it is not easy for linesmakers working for bookies either! My favourite dog this season was Wimbledon. I remember we bet many times on them and they hit nice big prices few times. I keep fingers crossed for Braintree today in conference because I have +0.5 asian on them but it will be very tough for them. Thanks for feedback!

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stinkinggonads

stinkinggonads

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) OK cheers zbrochu. But I thought you were not a gambler, I thought you were a sportsbetting businessman ;-) I also bet +0.5 on Braintree but no luck, I knew it would be difficult against Newport. A long time ago I remember the great win for Barrow against Newport, no such luck for Braintree tonight. I also bet on Barrow tonight, not a good decision, lol. They're my fav team in the conference, I don't want them relegated like Telford. Anyway, you're right, I did manage to get same odds as you on the handicap, 2.05 I think, so I am managing to get similar odds on the handicaps at least, which is what matters most. Also had a good value bet I thought on Barnsley tonight but they came away with a draw at top Cardiff, not that bad to be honest, should have done a handicap on them. It's pretty courageous to start betting in August but I will follow it eagerly. Your point about it being hard for the bookies also is true.

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froment

froment

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) Paperclip, I don't think your comment is really appropriate, but we'll look into that issue... :loon Anyway, I'm sure this is not proper place - if it's indeed such a big issue for you, you should have contacted someone of the mods, or open new thread in Problems & bugs, not here, please let's not ruin this great thread by Zbrochu! If you really cannot stand his name, please use "Ignore list" in your settings, so you won't see his posts. :ok

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stinkinggonads

stinkinggonads

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) LOL, thankyou Paperclip for your great disgust. It really is a great compliment to me that I could disturb you so greatly with a forum username :) But really, I echo froment's comments with regard to keeping the focus on zbrochu. I am just a guy like you who follows this thread, I've got nothing to do with zbrochu or his tips. I post on this thread because I think zbrochu has a great system. I think he is a talented sports bettor and I like to follow his tips and sometimes just talk about football with him. Whether my nads stink or smell of roses, that's irrelevant to sports betting, I think ;) Let's look forward to this week's tips!

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Mouseycat

Mouseycat

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield)

HARTLEPOOL 4.75 NANCY 3.55 CAGLIARI 2.87
Hi zbrochu, just curious on your cagliari selection. In the beginning you mentioned that only odds above 3.0 will be selected:unsure...just wondering if it still applies. Other than that, thanks for your hard work once again!:rollin
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zbrochu

zbrochu

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) Cagliari is an exception because I think this tip is really good, especially bacause it was 3.05 odds when I first checked it on Thursday so it is almost as if this rule applied for this tip too :) I hope there is not a problem. Surely, the general rule of big odds >3.00 is still on!

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield)

Hey zbrochu, have you considered that Cagliari v Inter will be played in a neutral venue (according to Pinnacle anyway)? Just asking to be sure.
Out of interest I checked on this. I think the term 'neutral' venue is misleading. It's Cagliari's home ground for this season. As far as I can see, it's less than 4 miles from old ground. From the information available, it would be more accurate to call it 'current home ground' than 'neutral venue' - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stadio_Is_Arenas
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zbrochu

zbrochu

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) Hi Rook, thanks for letting me know. It has been working for me. Can you please clear cache memory of your browser and let me know if it helps? If you use Firefox it is options/network/clear

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rook

rook

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) I work in IT so knew to do the cache clearing..and it wasnt helping. Just been there now though and its fine. Might be something to do with your new server and its configuration ?

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zbrochu

zbrochu

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) Ahh, OK.. I have no idea what it was. Please let me know, anyone, if you have problems in the future. Either here or by PM or my email. Because there might be some problems because of this new server.

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stinkinggonads

stinkinggonads

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield) Just a heads up, you might get better odds in other bookies because for some reason zbrochu's tips nearly always lower the odds after he posts them. I don't know if they're watching the thread or if a lot of people are backing the team at the same time, but I've found better odds outside pinnacle lately due to heavy reductions in odds. So always worth shopping around. When I follow other (less popular) systems I can usually get the best odds, or thereabouts, on pinnacle.

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MPLouis

MPLouis

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Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (102 picks +37% yield)

Hey zbrochu, have you considered that Cagliari v Inter will be played in a neutral venue (according to Pinnacle anyway)? Just asking to be sure.
Contrary to what I said earlier, Cagliari's official website states that this game is being played in Trieste, which definitely is a neutral venue, and is a lot closer to Milan than Sardinia - http://www.cagliaricalcio.net/news/14466/cagliari-inter.html
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