Lennox Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Really enjoying your thread. Great results, keep it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Finally I decided on Granada (+0.5)' date=' still a nice value-bet IMHO. [/quote'] LOL zbrochu, I actually bet on Granada win because I didn't know what a double chance was so I got 9 ha ha ha zbrochu for president! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 3, 2013 Share Posted February 3, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy P.S. (can't edit posts so have to make double post) No offense taken at hatred zbrochu, I actually laughed. I did the straight win in the end because like I said, I thought I should get some bigger balls. Many congrats on your news of baby on the way, let's hope it all goes well for you mate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted February 4, 2013 Author Share Posted February 4, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy SCUNTHORPE 3.10 BARNSLEY 5.50 AUGSBURG 4.52 FULHAM 6.00 NEWCASTLE 3.80 GRANADA DOUBLE CHANCE 3.40 ZARAGOZA 6.65 MALLORCA 5.42 Picks: 68 Correct Picks: 18 Profit +£239.2 Yield (ROI) +35% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The One Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Well done mate, looking great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TZOGAS Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy UNLUCKY TEAM VS AVERAGE TEAM (then we take unlucky) TOO LUCKY VS AVERAGE TEAM (then we take average) UNLUCKY TEAM VS TOO LUCKY TEAM (then we take unlucky, and it is best scenario obviously) can you gives us an example about unlucky team?....by statistics.... thanks......and good luck to youe selections.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Btw zbrochu, I noticed you're also doing asian handicaps, but says on your site it's about -1% yield at the moment. What handicap are you doing - +0, +0.5 or what? I was thinking this because a lot of the results that don't go our way are draws, obviously if we had +0.5 we would win these bets, but would the winnings offset the decreased odds from the handicap? I am sure you've backtested the various handicaps as well as straight 1X2 so you will know. Looking forward to the weekend, yours ever faithfully Stinking Gonads :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rook Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy I love your username....but it also makes me feel ill ! Seriously though that is a very good question as there are many of his win selections that are draws and it seems a shame that these are as bad as if the game had been lost from a betting angle. Sometimes when Im betting with an unusually large stake I like to make my own version of a +0 or draw no bet by finding the best separate odds for the win and the draw that I can as this is sometimes better than taking rhe offerred asian handicap odds. Very interested to hear zbrochus view on this too; though I suspect he is in his special mind space right now formulating the picks for this weekend !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rook Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy I love your username....but it also makes me feel ill ! Seriously though that is a very good question as there are many of his win selections that are draws and it seems a shame that these are as bad as if the game had been lost from a betting angle. Sometimes when Im betting with an unusually large stake I like to make my own version of a +0 or draw no bet by finding the best separate odds for the win and the draw that I can as this is sometimes better than taking rhe offerred asian handicap odds. Very interested to hear zbrochus view on this too; though I suspect he is in his special mind space right now formulating the picks for this weekend !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy In the latest bets we can see that zbrochu has started to implement +0 handicaps so maybe he is seeing some good results on that, or just trying it out. Issue is odds reduction with +0 handicap, if all were +0 bets returns would be reduced a lot e.g. 30% etc across the board. Would the amount of draws be enough for the returned stakes to be more than the reduction in returns as a result of +0 bets? As I said I do know from his site he is doing some sort of handicaps but don't know how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Btw zbrochu' date=' I noticed you're also doing asian handicaps, but says on your site it's about -1% yield at the moment. What handicap are you doing - +0, +0.5 or what? I was thinking this because a lot of the results that don't go our way are draws, obviously if we had +0.5 we would win these bets, but would the winnings offset the decreased odds from the handicap? I am sure you've backtested the various handicaps as well as straight 1X2 so you will know. Looking forward to the weekend, yours ever faithfully Stinking Gonads :D[/quote'] This asian handicap that I tested for -1% yield was completely different, separate strategy. If you wonder what profits would bring my bets when places as asians, the results would be much lower in terms of yield and one would miss plenty of potential profit. Imagine Granada last week - 10.00 odds won and in Granada (+2) handicap odds 1.90 would win. Hit rate obviously would be much higher for asians, but profits and yield much lower. On the other hand, the interesting thing is that my new strategy for asian handicaps brought +15% yield after ~100 picks so far. It is ~80 bets per month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Here are picks for the weekend: WIMBLEDON 4.75 QPR (AH +0, DRAW NO BET) 3.53 EVIAN 3.65 VALLECANO 3.64 TELFORD 9.09 SOUTHAMPTON HOME 5.68 SOCHAUX 4.20 As an exception I cover QPR with draw no bet because a draw is very likely here. Either straight bet and asians are nice valuebets for this team this round. Telford (+0.5) is very OK too if one wants to avoid this long-shot. "Straight" Telford have only ~20% - 25% of winning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy This asian handicap that I tested for -1% yield was completely different, separate strategy. If you wonder what profits would bring my bets when places as asians, the results would be much lower in terms of yield and one would miss plenty of potential profit. Imagine Granada last week - 10.00 odds won and in Granada (+2) handicap odds 1.90 would win. Hit rate obviously would be much higher for asians, but profits and yield much lower. On the other hand, the interesting thing is that my new strategy for asian handicaps brought +15% yield after ~100 picks so far. It is ~80 bets per month. I was wondering not about +1, +2 handicaps etc. as those handicaps are too high, I meant rather +0 or maybe +0.5 handicaps. Would profits and yield decrease from doing these, overall? Very interesting for asian handicaps... do tell us more ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Same situation with lower handicaps, does not matter. Very interesting for asian handicaps... do tell us more ;-) Subscribe to my mailing list if you have not yet. In this thread we are testing strategy so I want to keep it clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TZOGAS Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy will you show us an example about unlucky team?.....by using statistics....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Yes, this are examples of unlucky teams: WIMBLEDON, QPR , EVIAN , VALLECANO , TELFORD ,SOUTHAMPTON , SOCHAUX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TZOGAS Posted February 9, 2013 Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy that i can see.....but how that teams are unlucky?.....i mean from which factor you can see that.....i hope you can underestand me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted February 9, 2013 Author Share Posted February 9, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Hey Tzogas, please watch my video that I posted in first post here. It is a very complex process. I have 10 years of experience in sports-betting and statistics degree. I wish I could give you a magical formula that is easy to implement so you could find value-bets but it is just not that simple. It is quite complex so I would have to provide you few-years training instead of giving a short reply in forum. I give out some knowledge in videos (I am about to upload a new one on betting money management by the way) so you can get inspired by watching them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TZOGAS Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy a question please......how i watched your video....how do you know about the money market?....i mean if it fron the punters and not from people who wants to drive the market?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy WIMBLEDON 4.75 QPR (AH +0, DRAW NO BET) 3.53 EVIAN 3.65 VALLECANO 3.64 TELFORD 9.09 SOUTHAMPTON 5.68 SOCHAUX 4.20 Picks: 75 Correct Picks: 20 Profit +£262.4 Yield (ROI) +35% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Vallecano were brilliant last night, a really inspired performance. Southampton are looking really good as well with their new manager. I was disappointed Evian didn't win against 9 men lol but great weekend, excellent work as always zbrochu :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Yeah thanks:) I watched Evian's game - they had 100% ball posession since Marseille got second red card. But it as impossible to score when all 9 Marseille men stayed in their own penalty box ;) PS: I have one fatty bet for tommorow :-> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Yes I saw it as well Marseille really parked the bus. A fatty bet? You mean UCL? Is it Celtic v Juve? ;) I think Celtic's a good pick lol but what do I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy "parked the bus" :lol One tip for today, price might be a bit lower now: ALDERSHOT 3.54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy "parked the bus" :lol Yes, it's an english expression, when a football team defends for their lives. The best example of "parking the bus" I know is Chelsea v Barcelona last year :D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy RESULTS: ALDERSHOT 3.54 Picks: 76 Correct Picks: 20 Profit +£252.4 Yield (ROI) +33% Weekend (first game today): LA CORUNA DOUBLE CHANCE 3.25 GRANADA DOUBLE CHANCE 4.00 ALDERSHOT 3.90 GREUTHER F. 3.33 LINCOLN 3.42 BOLOGNA 3.98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkinggonads Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Wow, wasn't expecting that, lost all my profits from the system in 2 days lol... Oh well, hopefully we'll come back strong next week, just very unlucky I think. Without a piece of magic from messi we would have something this week but that's always the danger of betting against Barca :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Yes, it happens. Picks: 82 Correct Picks: 20 Profit +£192.4 Yield (ROI) +23% Weekend (first game today): LA CORUNA DOUBLE CHANCE 3.25 GRANADA DOUBLE CHANCE 4.00 ALDERSHOT 3.90 GREUTHER F. 3.33 LINCOLN 3.42 BOLOGNA 3.98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zbrochu Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Weekend bets (I posted yesterday so odds might have changed a bit now - current odds in brackets). First bet (BURY) plays today. BURY 4.20 (3.80) DEPORTIVO DOUBLE CHANCE 3.40 (3.40) FIORENTINA 3.43 (3.36) WIMBLEDON 4.00 (3.75) PLYMOUTH 4.27 (4.17) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" strategy Hey, Zbrochu, where did you find Fiorentina at 3.36? The highest I can see is 2.35, and on Betfair maximum was 2.50, now 2.36, too... Did you mean Bologna, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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