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zbrochu

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About zbrochu

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 08/21/1985

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  1. Re: FC Bayern München v FC Porto > Tuesday April 21st I think this will be most interesting of all games this season. I hope there will TV broadcast in my country for this game and not Barca that it is decided already. Betting-wise I have no clue, asians and under/overs seem very tough and I will probably skip betting and just focus on enjoying the game. I like Bayern but root for the underdogs this time!
  2. Re: How to calculate ROI increase or decrease with odds going up or down 1.10 is +10% yield . 3 is odds. Yield = Probability * Odds 1.10 = x * 3.0 x = 1.10 / 3
  3. Re: How to calculate ROI increase or decrease with odds going up or down If his yield is 10% then probability of his pick is 1.1/3 = 36.7% If your odds is 3.11 , then expected yield is 3.11*0.367 = 14% If your odds is 2.05, then expected yield is 2.05 * 0.367 = -25%
  4. Re: 3 categories of punters Unfortunately because it would be easier for punters to beat bookmakers if bookmakers' goal was to divide action instead of making accurate odds. Then sophisticated players would just blindy bet against "public" teams and bets to make profits. It was possible in the past, sharp players mostly bet unders and dogs, because bookmakers shaded few points knowing people will always take favs and overs anyway. Yes, this is obvious bookmakers change odds as a result of money wagered. If they get more action on one team, they lower odds to balance the action to secure margin-profit regardless of the result. This is some obvious stuff. But we discussed about starting odds before. You suggested bookmakers set odds to divide action evenly and I disagreed claiming that they set starting odds very accurately, to refelect true probabilites. For example if there is Manchester United - Cardiff game and their estimations show that Manchester is -1.25 favourite then they set starting handicap as -1.25. If they were to divide action, they would set the line -1.5 or -1.75 because they know most bets will be on hot favourite - Manchester so they would shade some quarters of AH to make an easy profit. It is how it worked in the past. Now, if they were to set -1.75 handicap for this game (-0.5 jandicap difference from their true predictions), big syndicates and intelligent players would jump in to take Cardiff +1.75 and this be very risky and exposing for bookmakers. They would be out of business in few months.
  5. Re: 3 categories of punters Maybe in ninety-nineties bookmakers' purpose was to set odds that divide action evenly but not any more. Unfortunately..
  6. Re: 3 categories of punters I think the 'mugs' are partly included in third category AJ. Good point about arbers and BF traders and middlers - this is definately a fourt category. Money management skill is different universe. If someone does not have it, he is screwed regardless if he has a winning strategy or not. It is why many sports journalists with encyclopedic knowledge or stats professors and geniuses are poor at betting - you get money management skills mostly by making bets, making mistakes and loosing money :)
  7. Hi guys, I've just finished writing an email to one person and I thought it would good idea to share this thoughts with you to maybe expand it a bit more in discussion. There are 3 categories of punters: 1) The guys that have math model, a very rare bread. Often they are math and stats wizard, stuggling and working on their stuff for many many years. It is important to know what sports they bet on and what stats they use. The more popular sport, the hardest it is to beat (with NBA spreads leading the pack). MLB, NFL and football big leagues are very tough too. Eurohockey, eurobasket and other low liqudity sports are better. As far as stats are concerned, the best are players based models where every player is evaluated (by his number of shots, accurate passes, tackles dribbles etc. depending on sport) and from this individual ratings overal team strenght is derived. Team-based stats are good too assuming one has access to detailed stats of teams like ball posession. If one relies only on goals scored/goals allowed he is in very very tough spot as bookmakers have amazingly accurate model for that and their numbers are sharpened by market that is affected by team news, injuries information etc. The model is like a holy graal - super difficult to find but once it is created, it can produce as many as 500 winning bets per month. 2) The guys who have "insider information". They usually specialize in some narrow fragment of any sport or market, for example Serbian Basketball. They know a lot about coaches and teams' dynamics. What players were sold, what bought and if they are good. What players are injured or suspended, what players have diarrhea this week and who is conflicted with manager. What teams struggle financially, what teams are motivated about Cups but not the league or other way around. I believe this guys can have long-term edge over bookmakers because they use information that bookmakers don't. Of course market frequently is affected strongly by this kind of information and odds are influenced . They drop a lot and drop too much so it is no longer a good betting opportunity, but all in all I think it is way to go for people who are not math wizards with deep pockets for buying expensive databases and programmers. 3) The guys who "think" they have insider information but they really don't. 90% of bettors are in this category and they don't achieve long-term edge over bookmakers. Their analyses include information that bookmakers already priced-in in odds: Example 1: "I believe Team A is better because they are in very good form at home and they have better h2h stats from previous years vs Team B". Example 2: "I watched last games of Team A and Team B and I saw they both have weak defenses and I expect a low scoring game". Example 3: "Team A is very good team , a runner-up from previous year and after few bad games they must start winning!". Example 4: "Team A have average of 3.2 goals this season and Team B have average of 2.7 goals this season. Easy over 2.5 bet". All this examples are wrong in terms of possibility of achieving profits. All this information are included in the odds. It is not that difficult to know that game A is likely to be high scoring game. But the point is to know if this game is more likely to be high scoring that bookmakers' odds suggest. Example: There is fourth round of Dutch league and there is a game betwene teeam that had 2-4 3-3 5-4 and 3-2 results and team B who had 4-1 3-3 2-2 and 2-3 results. Both teams are high scoring and high "allowing" and many people would be inclined to take bet between these teams as OVER. But bookmakers know this results too! What if they set line for this game differently and instead of giving OVER 2.5, they give OVER 8.5 goals 1.9/1.9 odds. Would you still want to take OVER in this game? I don't think so , you would be more inclined to bet UNDER. So as Einstein said, everything is relative and so should be our predictions and estimations. "Do I believe there will be more goals in this game that bookmakers think?" instead of "Do I believe there will be many goals in this game" or "Do I believe this team is bigger favourite that -1.5 1.85" instead of "Do I believe this team is very likely to win this game" Nothing new, some obvious stuff for many of you but I think it is worth recalling.
  8. Re: Simple (Stupid?) Question It is easy to calculate. Lets say someone bets only 1.96/1.96 odds and have long term -3% yield. This means he hits 0.97/1.96 = 49.5% of his bets. So by betting the other side you would hit 50.5% what gives 0.505*1.96=0.99 (-1%) long term yield. Either way, we are screwed and no surprise Bwin can afford to sponsor Real Madrit
  9. Re: Nice selections, but I'm losing money ... Why would you want to bet every underdog in these leagues? Do you know bookmakers spread their margins unevenly and underdogs betting in general is least profitable opportunity of all? Bookmakers are rich, they sponsor big clubs like Real - do you really think beating them is as easy as simply backing every underdog blindly? You need to do your homework, test things before you bet with real money. Possibly at least 1000 bets.. Good luck
  10. Re: Universal Total Goals System Yes, very interesting thread Areme, good luck with your system! I am also curious about "risk reward" ratio.
  11. Re: Kevin Pullein's picks, 7 bets, +56% yield Shit I took Ipswich DNB earlier this week :/
  12. Re: Yet another Over/Under Goals system..... Hi Aldebaran, this interesting. I agree it is difficult to compete with bookmakers in estimating U/O chances by using only goals scored/goals allowed stats, they are bloody good at this. There is different angle needed here. I have tried to tackle this market with this exact assumption. I wonder what you meant by saying that, if you could write few more words about it..
  13. Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield) 1/ Picks for this weekend: [TABLE=width: 856] [TR] [TD=align: right]07/09/2013[/TD] [TD]ENG 2[/TD] [TD]NORTHAMPTON[/TD] [TD]versus[/TD] [TD]SCUNTHORPE[/TD] [TD]take[/TD] [TD]SCUNTHORPE[/TD] [TD]+0.5[/TD] [TD]at odds[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.47[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]07/09/2013[/TD] [TD]ENG 1[/TD] [TD]BRADFORD[/TD] [TD]versus[/TD] [TD]BRENTFORD[/TD] [TD]take[/TD] [TD]BRENTFORD[/TD] [TD]0[/TD] [TD]at odds[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.94[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]07/09/2013[/TD] [TD]ENG 1[/TD] [TD]TRANMERE[/TD] [TD]versus[/TD] [TD]STEVENAGE[/TD] [TD]take[/TD] [TD]STEVENAGE[/TD] [TD]+0.5[/TD] [TD]at odds[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.57[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]07/09/2013[/TD] [TD]ENG 2[/TD] [TD]CHELTENHAM[/TD] [TD]versus[/TD] [TD]PORTSMOUTH[/TD] [TD]take[/TD] [TD]PORTSMOUTH[/TD] [TD]+0.25[/TD] [TD]at odds[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.82[/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD=align: right]07/09/2013[/TD] [TD]ENG 2[/TD] [TD]DAGENHAM[/TD] [TD]versus[/TD] [TD]EXETER[/TD] [TD]take[/TD] [TD]EXETER[/TD] [TD]+0.25[/TD] [TD]at odds[/TD] [TD=align: right]1.74[/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE] 2/ Previous video uploaded in HD quality: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhpN57eNLYk 3/ New video, second part of "Money Management in Sports-Betting": http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKLgSdE34cE This includes: - my 4 step procedure of evaluating tipsters' performance - who is more likely to succeed in the future? Tipster with 1000 picks and +7& yield or tipster with 50 picks and +20% yield? Excel tool to find it out - profit analysis - plateu - period recaluclation of stakes to maximalize seasonal profits with same level of risk 4/ I have started my website as a hobby and experiment. It grew in time and no longer can I offer free picks and advice. I have substantial costs of data sourcing and programmers service as well as time costs. I am expecting my first baby in upcoming week(s) and I can no longer afford to offer my advice for free for everyone. This is the last time I am posting in this topic here. I am very grateful to Paul Ross who trusted I am not a random spammer and that I can offer some educational (hopefully!) value for Punter's Lounge community and he let me to run this thread and increase awareness about my website and myself. I am aware of the rules of this forum and because my website becomes a paid service, I can no longer write about it. Please contact me via my website, if you need any information. 5/ This weeknend start new season of NFL and I am offering some tips for this sport (I hope odds are still current as I wrote them down 2 days ago) DENVER vs BALTIMORE take: OVER 50 at odds: 2.09 GREENBAY vs SAN FRANCISCO take: OVER 50 at odds: 2.08 MIAMI vs CLEVELAND take: UNDER 40 at odds: 2.03 HOUSTON vs SAN DIEGO take: UNDER 43 at odds: 2.09 PHILADELPHIA vs WASHINGTON take: UNDER 50 at odds: 2.18 NYGIANTS vs DALLAS take: UNDER 48.5 at odds: 1.95 CHICAGO vs CINCINATTI take: OVER 43 at odds: 2.06 TAMPA vs NEW YORK JETS take: UNDER 38 at odds: 2.11 TENNESSEE vs PITTSBURGH take: OVER 43 at odds: 2.04 MINNESOTA vs DETROIT take: UNDER 45 at odds: 2.08 OAKLAND vs INDIANAPOLIS take: OVER 48 at odds: 2.11 ATLANTA vs NEW ORLEANS take: OVER 54 at odds: 1.99 SEATTLE vs CAROLINA take: OVER 46 at odds: 2.1 KANSAS vs JACKSONVILLE take: OVER 42 at odds: 2.07 BUFFALO vs NEW ENGLAND take: UNDER 50 at odds: 2.09 ARIZONA vs ST. LOUIS take: OVER 42 at odds: 2.08 HOUSTON versus SANDIEGO take SANDIEGO +3 at odds 2.2 NEWENGLAND versus BUFFALO take BUFFALO +8 at odds 2 ATLANTA versus NEWORLEANS take ATLANTA +1.5 at odds 2.36 TAMPA versus NEWYORKJETS take NEWYORKJETS +2 at odds 2.42 MINNESOTA versus DETROIT take MINNESOTA +4 at odds 2.06 OAKLAND versus INDIANAPOLIS take OAKLAND +8.5 at odds 2.02 SEATTLE versus CAROLINA take SEATTLE -5 at odds 2.17 NYGIANTS versus DALLAS take NYGIANTS +3 at odds 2.15 PHILADELPHIA versus WASHINGTON take PHILADELPHIA +2 at odds 2.4 GREENBAY versus SANFRANCISCO take GREENBAY +3 at odds 2.35 ARIZONA versus STLOUIS take ARIZONA +3 at odds 2.33 KANSAS versus JACKSONVILLE take JACKSONVILLE +3 at odds 2.19 CINCINATTI versus CHICAGO take CINCINATTI +1.5 at odds 2.23 TENNESSE versus PITTSBURGH take TENNESSE +5.5 at odds 2.1 Thanks a lot. And GOOD LUCK!
  14. Re: "Sports-Betting as a Business" (108 picks +38% yield) I re-read your post 4 times but I am still confused and dont know what you ask about