Torque

to Punters Lounge @dopeness   
That's impossible if you're asking for a 1.10 banker every day that can't lose. Upsets will always happen. 

Well that is frustrating. Si Jiahui waited until 5-0 down before playing his natural game and got it back to 5-5 before losing 6-5. Ah well, when you back the underdogs your strikerate isn't going to be brilliant
I'll take Anthony Hamilton today to beat Sam Baird. Hamilton has won both previous head-to-heads and only this year beat Baird 4-0. Next up, I'll go with Honghao against Robbie Williams. This one will probably be very close, but Honghao has already shown he has the bottle under pressure and has already beaten Williams in the Worlds this year 10-8.
Mark King is currently in abit of a slump of form and he faces a decent player in Chang Bingyu. I'll take Bingyu here at a nice price. I think Harvey Chandler has a good chance against Milkins. Milkins beat him 4-0 in their only h2h, but that was back when Chandler was a teenager. Chandler has beaten Day and Maflin this year and so I think it's worth a punt.
Finally two handicap bets. The first being Ferg O'Brien against Michael White. I'll continue to lay white because I just don't think his head is in the game and O'Brien is quite an underrated player. All 3 head-to-heads have been won by O'Brien and all 3 would have covered this handicap. Other one is Un-Nooh against Jamie O'Neill. Un-Nooh has already beaten O'Neill this season 5-1 and I just do not see Jamie getting 3 frames.
6pts A.Hamilton to beat S.Baird 4/6 bet365
6pts L.Honghao to beat R.Williams 5/6 coral
4pts C.Bingyu to beat M.King 13/8 coral
2.5pts H.Chandler to beat R.Milkins 13/5 ladbrokes
5pts F.O'Brien (-1.5 frames) to beat M.White 4/5 bet365
5pts T.Un-Nooh (-3.5 frames) to beat J.O'Neill evens bet365
 

Alright guys, the 2019 tennis season is more or less officially over, so it's time for a fairly long review of what happened.
On the sporting side of things, I think that we had a fairly intriguing season. I am, of course, hugely disappointed that we don't have any new Grand Slam winners, with Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal splitting all four titles evenly, but Daniil Medvedev came agonizingly close in the US Open and I think that the final there was actually the match of the year for me. I reckon that some of you will claim that the Wimbledon finals were the real thing, but I unfortunately didn't actually get to see that one, so I have no idea about what actually happened apart from the scoreboard changes. I did get to watch Nadal-Medvedev in the middle of the night while a storm was raging outside, however, so yeah, that was an interesting experience :D.
The second ATP story of the year that I'd like to highlight here was Murray's comeback, as I was genuinely convinced that he wouldn't be able to do much after his loss against.....er...I think it was Viola. He did grab a title afterwards in style, however, and I think that he might do even more in 2020. It's hard to say how much he can do in the physically-more-demanding Grand Slams, but he should be very dangerous everywhere else.
As far as the WTA is concerned, well, it's still a mess, isn't it? And I think that we have Clijsters or someone coming back next year as well, which is honestly just crazy - if she's going to make it, it really is going to speak volumes about the difference between ATP and WTA, I really can't imagine that we'd have Radek Stepanek or someone making a singles comeback in the same vein :D. The Grand Slams were obviously quite exciting with the Williams story and with seven different players occupying those eight final places, which is just really good for the game imo. It's great to have Bianca coming up, but I'm really sad that Marketa Vondrousova is yet another of those great talents trapped in awfully frail bodies. I'm getting Djokovic vibes whenever I see her play for some reason, but, well, she's currently after a surgery and we haven't see her since Wimbledon, so I'm not sure what the state of affairs is going to be next year.
On the forum side of things, the activity has picked up quite a bit in comparison with the previous season and we now have a nice mix of regulars and newcomers, so I'm really hoping that we are going to continue in the same fashion once the Australian Open starts. The passion always goes down a bit after the US Open and that is understandable, but I'd like to see all the guys here again in January. I'm not even going to name anyone, as I'm sure that I'd miss someone! In any case, I didn't even have to ban all that many people in 2019, which is just excellent!
And, finally, the betting side of things. While I was hoping to get to the lower levels of the competition, I didn't get to that for all sorts of reasons, so there were no easy pickings to be found anywhere. I'm hoping to get to exploring that area next year, especially if everything is still going to be so difficult on the main tours, but that's not for now, that's for later - and January is going to be all about the main tour anyway. Results-wise, I'm happy to say that 2019 was another profitable year, although I must admit that it wasn't as great as I was hoping it to be. Overall, it appears that I managed to place a grand total of 292 bets and that I ended with a decent ROI of 103%. I know that many people are still actively debating what ROI is achievable long term, but it's really hard for me to contribute to that, as it really depends on a great many of factors. I'm certainly guilty of being a bit overactive, which leads to some bad bets here and there, and I'm also guilty of not trying to exploit ITFs and Challengers as often as possible. I am going to try to change that if given a chance - and should lead to at least somewhat better results.
So, on that note, I hope that you are all going to have a great off-season, Christmas, etc., and I hope that we are all going to meet here either at the end of December or at least for the start of the Australian Open (January 20). I thank you all for being here and contributing!

105/105 Bank @ £265.58. 
Having lost £10.00 after my first attempt I have decided to bank £220.00 from this go at it which leaves me with overall profit of £200.00 secured. 
Will now continue to go all in with the £45.58 I have left from this attempt to see how much further I can go with this run. 

Reminded of this thread after posting my doubts about the viability of the thread @BettingChallenges4Profit has posted in respect of top 5 teams, where I also mentioned a potential sample size of 1,000. In the spirit of putting up or shutting up, I'll press on with this thread with a view to at least getting to the 500 mark. It may take some time though, as I'm going to try and be more selective than before.
First selection has to be 24 points on Nadolo to score a try for Montpellier v Gloucester at 11/10 with Hills.
You can't get a more classic illustration of value than getting odds against about a selection that you and the rest of the spreads and fixed odds markets think should be odds on!
Fancy prices available for the brace and hat trick too but I'll keep it simple and ambitions modest for now!

It's absolutely worthwhile, it's been worth thousands of pounds to me, whether that's viewed as reducing my losses (especially in the earlier days) or increasing the winnings.
First and foremost, especially now, it's used for recording every bet I place and giving me the ability to analyse the results in detail. That strips away the universal tendency to overestimate how well you're doing or underestimate how badly. Recently I've eliminated bets that were costing me a lot of money even though I assumed it was one of my strengths (past results being no guarantee of ongoing profit) and found profitable bets to put real money on after tracking paper trades for a while. None of that data is available elsewhere, hence it's value to you.
For sports other than football, there's not necessarily the same depth of data out there so capturing and analysing you own stats is necessary. Even for football, you can do more targeted analysis on specific areas with Excel than you can do online.
Excel (or other freely available equivalent tools) is only the entry level tool when it comes to data capture and analysis in betting and I'm by no means an expert user but I can't imagine betting without it and I guarantee it's worth the effort of mastering the basics.

Fair enough, your choice and I apologise for any offence. Personally I don't think anything I said went beyond fair comment in terms of open debate on a betting forum and I hope no-one else found my comments disrespectful.
Ironically, I now find myself sufficiently interested in the subject to have done a bit more digging so I'll probably add periodic updates to the thread.

That proves that then! Obviously one example, win or lose, proves nothing about the value of a given strategy but your example is dubious to say the least! If you really want to illustrate that this might work, post real selections, with actual odds, in advance (no need to put real money down but at least they are bets that could be followed).
A few observations:
Only now are you stipulating only backing the teams at home; you never mentioned this before. You started out with "odds of 3.1 + each team" but are now assuming odds of 2.5.  One of your "doubles" involves matches that were 13 days apart! Your start date seems to have been 24th September even though the thread dates back to August; you can't pick and choose matches just to support your desired outcome. How is the stake 15 units in week 3 if it was going to be 1 in week 1 then 2 in week 2? I still don't believe this strategy will deliver long term profits but it would be interesting to see a genuine attempt to demonstrate it's merits with "live" examples. Please don't waste our time with back-fitted results chosen just because they suit you.

Belgium won. Next stake £583.33

At least like you say you are still alive! keep it up  

Tsitsipas vs Thiem.
Absolutely equal. Watch only. Both in terrific shape. Bookies also agree, and offer even odds.
Merry Christmas punters!
See you in Australian Open!

I can see your point @lelit in terms of this tournament, but at the same time across the length and breadth of the season it's probably fair to call Sascha unreliable.

I can see your point @lelit in terms of this tournament, but at the same time across the length and breadth of the season it's probably fair to call Sascha unreliable.

It's a shame Medvedev flunked so badly this week - and not just because I was on him outright. He's had a great season but casual followers of the sport would've wondered what all the fuss was about after his two losses so far. The Tsitsipas loss was fair enough, although a surprise as Medvedev had dominated the h2h, but the Nadal loss was very poor. It's one thing to be overhauled by one of the best players to ever play the game, but it's quite another in my eyes to do it the way he did. His body language and attitude were terrible when things went wrong during the match - particularly in the last set obviously - and played completely into Nadal's hands and it's not as though he needs extra help. I thought he'd largely left the whining and the histrionics and gesticulations to his box that make him look like a spoilt child behind him, and to bring that side of his game that is clearly still there to the surface on one of the most visible stages is hopefully something he'll be disappointed about and look to change for next season.
He could do much worse than look to Nadal as a role model, as I cannot ever remember seeing him muttering to his box and giving the impression that he was blaming them for losing which is what Medvedev was doing against Nadal. As for this evening, it'll be interesting to see what kind of reaction he gives - hopefully he reacts in a good way and shows the best of himself. If you scratch the last two matches and look back on the season I actually think the value is on Medvedev here, as he should be motivated to make up for the Nadal performance plus there is a financial incentive which he's openly said is a reason he plays the game.

Looking at today, I think that I'm just going to conserve the profits and see if there's anything interesting next week. If so, I'm going to have a couple of punts. If not, you can still expect a full season review from me - as always.

I still think the new format is better than the old. As you've pointed out it's not perfect, but I'd argue from the perspective of the players this is the lesser of two evils and I also believe fans will prefer it. The way it was before caused problems for a lot of players because of the time and travel demands it placed on them if they wanted to try for the title - stretched out across the year as it was made it a logistical nightmare. You only have to look at Federer and Wawrinka the year the Swiss team won to prove the point. Essentially they fully committed to one season of Davis Cup, even though it didn't fit in with the schedule they wanted to play that season and the proof of that came the following season when they made themselves unavailable. At least with the new format it's short and sweet and that's bound to appeal to players who, as you've said, are at the end of a long season. The idea of one last push across a short period of time must be more appealing than a long slog across the entire season. Anything at the end of the season could suffer due to player fatigue - the same criticism has been levelled at the tour finals - but ultimately it's up to the players to manage their workloads effectively and not having Davis Cup weekends dotted around the season should help to minimise accumulated fatigue, not to mention that all players are used to playing in consecutive weeks.

15pts/Alexandrova to win WTA Linz @ 2.62 General

Djokovic and Osaka won. New bank 1086.89pts

Weekends results in full, not a great Sunday to say the least, but this is a long term thing....
 

 

Daniil Medvedev (-2.5) to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas at 1.75 with Pinnacle
Alright, Djokovic managed to win 2-0 as predicted and I'm going to continue backing the favorites on Monday, with Medvedev being my pick of the day. @Torque has done a great job listing all the arguments, but what clinches it for me is the H2H and the fact that the Russian has had plenty of rest, which is something that he desperately needed.

Couple points from this gameweek's matches so far: both Southampton and Norwich looked quite awful especially at the back. Southampton had problems getting the possession (numerous misses from the passes) and Norwich keeps on looking vulnerable at the back. Improvements can happen during the international break but I'll definitely keep my eye on betting against these two teams in the near future.

Daniil Medvedev to win ATP Tour Finals @ 6.00 General
It's ten years now since Davydenko was an unexpected winner of the Tour Finals and as much as that has nothing to do with events this year, I can't help but see the parallels between Davydenko's game and that of Medvedev. Both were excellent servers, both were well suited to indoor conditions and both were capable of beating the best on their day and of course Davydenko had a few of those days ten years ago. As for Medvedev, he couldn't really be in better form coming into this. I'll forgive him the defeat to Chardy in Paris as I don't think he was particularly motivated, but he'll certainly be up for this. He's grouped with Nadal, Tsitsipas and Sascha and I think he finishes in the top two and progresses to the knock-out stages and that's before the possibility of Nadal withdrawing at some point like he did a couple of years ago. From there who knows, but there's nobody in the other group that he can't beat. I'd say he's got Djokovic's number and I'm certain the World No. 2 would like to avoid another meeting with him having come out the wrong side of a couple of meetings with him already this season, and I'm sure he'd fancy his chances against Federer given that the Swiss hasn't won here for a few years now and is in the twilight of his career. In short, based on the season to date I think Medvedev is a Grand Slam champion in-waiting and after Sascha won here last year I can't see why Medvedev can't follow in his footsteps. If Djokovic doesn't justify his status as favourite here - which happened last year - then I can see a Medvedev win.

Daniil Medvedev to win ATP Tour Finals @ 6.00 General
It's ten years now since Davydenko was an unexpected winner of the Tour Finals and as much as that has nothing to do with events this year, I can't help but see the parallels between Davydenko's game and that of Medvedev. Both were excellent servers, both were well suited to indoor conditions and both were capable of beating the best on their day and of course Davydenko had a few of those days ten years ago. As for Medvedev, he couldn't really be in better form coming into this. I'll forgive him the defeat to Chardy in Paris as I don't think he was particularly motivated, but he'll certainly be up for this. He's grouped with Nadal, Tsitsipas and Sascha and I think he finishes in the top two and progresses to the knock-out stages and that's before the possibility of Nadal withdrawing at some point like he did a couple of years ago. From there who knows, but there's nobody in the other group that he can't beat. I'd say he's got Djokovic's number and I'm certain the World No. 2 would like to avoid another meeting with him having come out the wrong side of a couple of meetings with him already this season, and I'm sure he'd fancy his chances against Federer given that the Swiss hasn't won here for a few years now and is in the twilight of his career. In short, based on the season to date I think Medvedev is a Grand Slam champion in-waiting and after Sascha won here last year I can't see why Medvedev can't follow in his footsteps. If Djokovic doesn't justify his status as favourite here - which happened last year - then I can see a Medvedev win.

This week’s selection is Gillingham to take most corners v Sunderland, 0.5pt at 4-1 with Skybet.
Already cut to 7/2! 365 might only allow me £2.50 on an even money shot but at least they hold the price for more than 5 minutes!

I never understand why tipsters say they won't bet on the FA Cup. I love betting on the FA Cup as it offers the chance to land some lumpy prices as I have done over the years. The 1st Round is my favourite weekend of the season and hopefully I can make it a profitable one. I have 7 singles and a 5 team acca across the weekend.
Dulwich Hamlet v Carlisle
Gloucester City might be my main team, but I have been going to Dulwich games for around 10 years now. At that point they were lucky to get 300 people through the turnstiles and now you can sometimes add a 0 on to that figure. This season alone they are averaging nearly 2000 for their league games and not surprisingly Friday night's match is a sell out. Fortunately I have been able to get hold of a ticket so will be there hopefully to witness a upset and Dulwich's first ever visit to the 2nd round. I think there is a fair chance that I might. On the face of it backing a team who haven't won a league game since August 24th two divisions below their opponents might not be wise, but Dulwich are nowhere near as bad as that stat suggests. I put them up in the last round when they beat Havant who are the best team in their division so that was no mean feat. Carlisle come into this having only won 2 away games in the league all season and they were both against teams below them in the table. Their win against Macclesfield last week was their first in 7 and given the troubles with them at the moment that is hardly proof they are in good form again. They will not fancy this one bit. Champion Hill is very compact so the crowd will be very close to the action add into the fact that the game is on the BBC so the Carlisle players will know the pressure is on them. Gavin Rose has always set Dulwich up to play football the right way and if they can be clinical in front of goal I am certain they will get the chances to win the game. I think 16/5 (Bet365 and Betfair) is just on the right side of value and hopefully they can get the weekend off to a profitable start.
Carshalton v Boston
An all Non-League tie here with BetVictor Isthmian Premier Carshalton hosting Natonal League North side Boston. I like the chances of there being an upset here as Carshalton have been hard to beat all season. They have lost just 3 times in the league and only one of those have come in their last 10 although they have drawn their last 5. They have already caused an upset in the previous round having beaten Dagenham & Redbridge so hosting a team from the level below should hold no fears for them. Boston have struggled on their travels in the league and they have only beaten Kettering and AFC Telford away from home. That Telford game was last week, but they clearly have issues away from home given they are unbeaten at home. I think at over 2/1 the home side are value to cause an upset.
Stourbridge v Eastleigh
I opposed Eastleigh last week given the amount of injuries they had and the fact Harrogate were in decent form, but Harrogate had a bit of a stinker and gifted them 3 of their 4 goals. Even though Stourbridge are two levels below it actually wouldn't surprise me if they give them a harder game than they had last week. Also Eastleigh have looked pretty poor on the road at times this season. Stourbridge have only played 11 league games so far given their cup run and they have lost just twice. Chances are they will be fighting it out for promotion again this season and their current position of 11th is a bit misleading. I think this is one game which will be much closer than the odds and leagues positions suggest.
Walsall v Darlington
The biggest price selection is Darlington and obviously backing a National League North side to win at a League 2 side should be a big price, but given Walsall's form at the moment Darlington might just be capable of causing an upset. They have lost 6 games on the bounce now and will be coming into this low on confidence. It was a bit disappointing Darlington couldn't beat a 10 man Hereford last week, but it did continue the unbeaten run and they are better than their league position suggests. A risky bet for sure, but I do think they are overpriced to win the game.
Gateshead v Oldham
Gateshead let me down last Saturday when under performing against Guiseley last week. They hadn't conceded at home for over nine hours and then duly defended badly and let in 3 in one game. They bounced straight back on Tuesday though beating Curzon 3-0. Granted Oldham are going to be at a very different level from Curzon, but they are coming into this game in shocking form and they clearly are one of the worst teams in League 2. They have only won once away all season and in their last 10 games they have only beaten Walsall and Morecombe which doesn't say an awful lot. As long as Gateshead don't defend like they did last week, and the evidence suggests that was a one off, then they have a real chance of causing an upset here in my view.
Macclesfield v Kingstonian
This game might not even go ahead because of the players strike and it is no surprise that some bookies have stopped betting on the game and that the price of the away side has come in from around 8/1. Kingstonian were one of my ante-post bets in their league this season and they have been frustrating as they haven't won as many matches as they ought to have done, but on their day they are a good side and given all that is going on at Macclesfield it looks a sporting play. Even if the players do get paid they aren't going to be in a good place and if they don't then there must be a chance that Macclesfield play the youth team just to get the game on. If that happens then that Kingstonian price will come in plenty more.
Wrexham v Rochdale
Rochdale are in the bottom half of League 1 and have lost their last 3 games, but I think they can beat Wrexham here. 2 of those defeats were against top of the table Ipswich and 4th place Oxford. I opposed Wrexham last week, but they beat Bromley thanks to a cracking goal and I do think Wrexham will improve under Dean Keates, but they still have a little way to go and I think they will struggle to beat a League 1 side at the moment. I am surprised that Rochdale are on the drift and they look a good price at odds against.
FA Cup Acca
I like 5 teams at odds on to win over the weekend. Solihull travel to Oxford City and they ought to have too much for them. Chorley have found life a struggle in the National League and they have started leaking goals again after keeping a few clean sheets. They travel to Mansfield and it would be a surprise if they could get anything out of it. Rotherham's away form is much better than their home form and they can prove to be too strong at Maidenhead. On Sunday Northampton should be more than capable of beating Chippenham and in one of the live games I can see Oxford United easily beating Hayes & Yeading. As an aside it wasn't that long ago I went to watch that game as a league match and now their are 4 levels between them!
Dulwich Hamlet 1pt @ 16/5 with Bet365 and Betfair
Carshalton 1pt @ 21/10 with Marathon
Stourbridge 1pt @ 100/30 with Betfair
Darlington 1pt @ 17/2 with Bet365
Gateshead 1pt @ 100/30 with Bet365
Kingstonian 1pt @ 21/4 with Bet365
Rochdale 2pts @ 13/10 with Betway
Solihull/Mansfield/Northampton/Oxford United/Rotherham 1pt acca @ 6.3/1 with Marathon