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Fader

UK Championships

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Huge ranking event gets started tomorrow. The Betway UK Championships, in York. 128 players line up for the biggest tournament of the season (so far) and it will stay that way until April. Over the years, Ronnie O'Sullivan has almost taken this tournament as his own, with the most UK titles of any player (7) He has to be respected, going for his hat-trick of wins here in a row also.

Ronnie is in the top half, which houses Kyren Wilson, Shuan Murphy. Ding Junhui, John Higgins and Neil Robertson. Not to mention dangerous players like Un-Nooh and Xintong. Based on this, for me, the place to be looking is the bottom half. Judd Trump is just on fire right now, and it's hard to see anybody beating him right now. I just can't take him at 3/1.

My main bet will be Mark Allen. In the top half I think Robertson has a pretty regulation passage until the quarter-finals in which he would face Higgins/Bingham/Un-Nooh and so I'll be looking at one/two of those three for some interest in the top-half. In the bottom half, I like Allen. His pathway isn't the nicest. He would face Hawkins quite early on (although Maflin may have something to say about that) and then he'd face Trump but as eluded to prior, Allen has a good record against Trump.

I'll also take a few worthy "outsider" punts, which this year include Gilbert and Un-Nooh, and then a few mammoth outsiders for quarter bets. Including, Cahill, Ford and Si Jiahui, whom I see as a future star.

3pts E/W M.Allen to win UK Championships 16/1 bet365
2pts S.Bingham to win UK Championships 33/1 bet365
1pt E/W D.Gilbert to win UK Championships 50/1 boylesports
0.5pts E/W T.Un-Nooh to win UK Championships 150/1 sportingbet

0.5pts T.Ford to win Quarter 1 50/1 paddypower
0.5pts J.Cahill to win Quarter 3 100/1 paddypower
0.5pts Si Jiahui to win Quarter 3 150/1 paddypower


 

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Day 1 :
I've just been looking at what matches are on tomorrow and it's a very close card. It's a real 50/50 kind of day in alot of matches and there is only 1 that catches my eye. I'll take Zhang Anda to beat Daniel Wells tomorrow evening. Anda has beaten Wells in all the head-2-heads they have played and if you take away expected losses (Trump, Allen) then you'd have to say Anda is playing well. He's beaten Murphy this season. Daniel Wells has lost his last 3 in a row and although one of those was Judd Trump (4-0 thrashing) the other defeats against Bond and Selt, he'd need more than that performance to beat Anda.

I'll stick with just this one for tomorrow. I'm tempted by a couple others (Pengfei to beat Craigie for example) but it's just so 50/50 for me.

5.5pts Z.Anda to beat D.Wells 8/11 ladbrokes

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Lots of snooker today. Bit pressed for time as we get started at 9.30am. I'm going to take outsiders today. 3 I like and if one comes in, I'll be happy. Duane Jones takes on Ding and Jones has already beaten Ding this year, at the German Masters. I can see Ding is the favourite, and rightly so, but I can't be having Duane Jones at 9/2. At 2.30pm, Gould faces Alfie Burden and Gould just looks so out-of-form, I think there is value in Burden. Fianlly, as mentioned previously with young Si Jiahui, he faces Mark Davis and I'm going to take Jaihui to cause an upset.

2pts D.Jones to beat D.Junhui 9/2 bet365
2.5pts A.Burden to beat M.Gould 11/5 bet365
2.5pts S.Jiahui to beat M.Davis 7/5 betway

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Well that is frustrating. Si Jiahui waited until 5-0 down before playing his natural game and got it back to 5-5 before losing 6-5. Ah well, when you back the underdogs your strikerate isn't going to be brilliant

I'll take Anthony Hamilton today to beat Sam Baird. Hamilton has won both previous head-to-heads and only this year beat Baird 4-0. Next up, I'll go with Honghao against Robbie Williams. This one will probably be very close, but Honghao has already shown he has the bottle under pressure and has already beaten Williams in the Worlds this year 10-8.

Mark King is currently in abit of a slump of form and he faces a decent player in Chang Bingyu. I'll take Bingyu here at a nice price. I think Harvey Chandler has a good chance against Milkins. Milkins beat him 4-0 in their only h2h, but that was back when Chandler was a teenager. Chandler has beaten Day and Maflin this year and so I think it's worth a punt.

Finally two handicap bets. The first being Ferg O'Brien against Michael White. I'll continue to lay white because I just don't think his head is in the game and O'Brien is quite an underrated player. All 3 head-to-heads have been won by O'Brien and all 3 would have covered this handicap. Other one is Un-Nooh against Jamie O'Neill. Un-Nooh has already beaten O'Neill this season 5-1 and I just do not see Jamie getting 3 frames.

6pts A.Hamilton to beat S.Baird 4/6 bet365
6pts L.Honghao to beat R.Williams 5/6 coral
4pts C.Bingyu to beat M.King 13/8 coral
2.5pts H.Chandler to beat R.Milkins 13/5 ladbrokes
5pts F.O'Brien (-1.5 frames) to beat M.White 4/5 bet365
5pts T.Un-Nooh (-3.5 frames) to beat J.O'Neill evens bet365

 

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After abit of a nightmare both with luck and plain poor bets evidentally, I'll go with just 2 tomorrow. The first will be Ian Burns on the handicap. I think this match will be close. Sure, Holt should be favourite, but if Burns is back to his best, he will give Holt a game. The +2.5 handicap allows for  any win, aswell as a 6-5,6-4 defeat and I'd be suprised if there is now more than 9 frames in this one.

The other one I like is taking on Mark King again. Bingyu should have beaten him and perhaps if I didn't bet on it, he would have. I think haotian should not buckle under the pressure so much.

5pts I.Burns (+2.5 frames) to beat M.Holt 7/10 boylesports
5.5pts L.Haotian to beat M.King 10/11 bet365

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Yeah, he hasn't had anybody worthy yet though. Murphy going out though, will there be anybody worthy until the final?

3 I like tomorrow. Carter on the handicap is the first. He's always beaten Milkins and covered this handicap. Winning 3-1/4-1 etc and now with the first to 6 I would expect a 6-4 at the very minimum. I'm going to the same way with Dott, against Sijun. Dott beat Sijun 5-2 in there only match-up and something like that again would be ideal. Dott is scoring well at present and it does seem like the experience is where it's at in this tournament.

I'll take Maflin against Jimmy Robertson as the third and final bet. He's beat Jimmy Robertson 2 in a row over the course of the last 2 years and is in the better form.

6pts A.Carter (-1.5 frames) to beat R.Milkins 4/6 paddypower
4pts G.Dott (-1.5 frames) to be Sijun evens paddypower
5pts K.Maflin to beat J.Robertson evens paddypower

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3/3 much better. I agree on both. Here's my look at tomorrow.

First, I like Marco Fu to beat Li Hang. Fu has scored much better this week and leads the head-2-head 2-0 albeit both matches were 5+ years ago. Li Hang is a strong player, but he has just half the amount of 50+ breaks of Fu this week. When Fu is playing like this, it takes a strong player to beat him. Of the other matches at 1pm, I do like Bingham to beat Xintong. Bingham worried me after the 1st round clash with Lei. He didn't perform atall and only hit 2 50+ breaks but he really improved against Gould. 5 50+ and 3 centuries. He faces Xintong who he leads the head-2-heads 4-0 and has already beaten him twice this year. I wont bet on the match because I already have Bingham on the outright and the price isn't good enough but he is also one I like tomorrow.

In the later matches, Alan McManus takes on Kurt Maflin. I've mentioned how good Maflin is and how underrated he is and I fancy him to see off McManus here. The matches are normally tight between the two but Maflin is scoring better (8 50+ in tournament Vs 4 50+ for McManus) I'll side with Maflin. Finally, Hamilton to see off Matthew Stevens. I'm quite surprised he isn't the favourite. Stevens has played well this week (2 centuries and 4 50+) but Hamilton has really performed and he has these little periods where he has a good few tournaments in a row. He's scored 2 centuries also (7 50+) both got good results previously. Day was a good opponent for Stevens to beat. Cahill, much the same after Cahill led a few times. 

6pts M.Fu to beat L.Hang 4/6 bet365
6pts K.Maflin to beat A.McManus 4/6 william hill
4pts A.Hamilton to beat M.Stevens 5/4 betfred

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8 hours ago, Donnyb63 said:

Jeez the two I fancied were li hang and Stevens totally against you ,you seem knowledgeable enough dont know what to do now lol

haha. Donny sorry I mis-read your post completely. Stevens Vs Hamilton could really be any result. I like Hamilton because the price is better on that one. Li Hang I would agree with normally but Fu is really hitting the ball well and normally in this kind of form he is hard to stop. I don't want to put you off nothing though incase it wins haha

I see Fu beating Hang and then beating Wenbo before going out to Ronnie (although he beat Ronnie last time they met, this year ;) )

 

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good call on Hang mate. Hope I didn't put you off. Standard was crazy. Each player was winning frames in one visit. Yeah, 5 centuries. I expected Fu to play like that but I didn't expect Li Hang to play like that.

Elsewhere happy to see Bingham through and more importantly, Trump out :)

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Tonight, I think Higgins wins easy. I'd hope Allen doesn't have too many issue but the other 2 matches you would expect to be close. McManus Vs Maflin would be the closest Id expect. I like bet365's market "player to win 3 successive frames" and I'm going to side with "No" I.e, nobody gets 3 frames in a row. I expect it to be close as mentioned. Maybe 6-3 at worst. I do expect to be tit for tat early on too.

3pts Either player to win 3 successive frames? No! 4/1 bet365

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3 hours ago, Fader said:

good call on Hang mate. Hope I didn't put you off. Standard was crazy. Each player was winning frames in one visit. Yeah, 5 centuries. I expected Fu to play like that but I didn't expect Li Hang to play like that.

Elsewhere happy to see Bingham through and more importantly, Trump out :)

Yep makes it slightly easier for the rocket as trump was in his half of the draw.Bond played well today and deserved the win.

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Some odd results in this event. By end of play today we'll know the Last 16 men. Plenty of 50/50 type matches again today. I initially really liked the look of Carter against Ding but something puts me off now. The price is nearly evens and that just isn't good enough for me. I'm now edging to Ding so I'll leave that one well alone.

I'll side with Dott again in the battle of the scots. Maguires scoring hasn't been that great this week (1 century, 3 50+ in 18 frames) Dott aslong as his stamina remains, is playing very well and has only dropped 1 frame in his 2 matches, scoring 1 century and 6 50+ in just 13 frames. H2H shows Maguire won the last between them, but that was 2 years ago and Dott has won 2 of the last 3.

Gary Wilson takes on Joe Perry and scoring wise Wilson is on fire. FOUR centuries and 2 50+ in his 6-4 win over Wakelin. Perry just isn't in the form right now and managed only one 50+ in his win over Akani. Perry holds a good h2h but surely Wilson wins here. I'm going to actually back Michael White for the first time in a while. Davis is playing well but he was handed the win by Jiahui and beating Fan Zhengyi 6-4 doesn't do it for me. White has easilty beat 2 decent players.

I'm very tempted by Bingtao but I'm still researching that one and will get back to it.

4pts G.Dott to beat S.Maguire evens sportingbet
5pts G.Wilson to beat J.Perry evens sportingbet
4pts M.White to beat M.Davis 6/4 ladbrokes

 

 

 

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Go on White! A lovely evening accy of Bingtao/Wilson/White came to fruition. God knows how! That match looked pants. 

In the first day of the Last 16, I'll be leaving 2 of the matches alone with Bingham and Allen involved. Bingham is playing much better but the head-2-head paints a picture. Won the last 3 in a row and all 3 of those this year. I think Higgins wins but I'll leave it alone with the outright bet on Bingham. Allen, I like the chances of, although I've noticed that he hasn't started well in all his matches. If he plays someone who starts well against him, it could get close. 

Of the remaining 2 matches, I'm going to take on Li Hang again. He's been playing so well, I just don't think it will continue. I think Wenbo beats him. Wenbo is a real underrated player really and he holds a good h2h against Hang. I see his defensive capabilities holding Hang back and making him go for more than he would like. In the final match it's not up on Oddschecker yet, but I'm assuming Robertson is the big favourite and Id agree with that. 

The other one I'm going with is Gary Wilson each-way. I think only Allen would stop him in bottom half of the draw. He's scoring so well. At 16/1 we'd get the 8/1 each-way place if he does manage to beat Allen and then who knows.

5pts Wenbo to beat Li Hang 4/5 boylesports
1pt E.W G.Wilson to win UK Championships 16/1 bet365

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Wouldn't say he struggled. Maflin is a man in form at the moment and there was 3 centuries and a further 4 50+ breaks in that match. Higgins struggled. Lucky for him, Bingham turns into a big ball of goo when he plays him. I still think Ronnie plays Allen in the final, but if Gary Wilson keeps it up, he could easily make the final. I don't see anybody beating Ronnie in the top half. Ding will probably lose before the match starts mentally and Wenbo will not be a match for Ronnie. Too nervous. Higgins might keep it tight, but let's face it, Higgins hasn't beaten Ronnie in England for 3 years.

Glad to see Wenbo beat Li Hang tonight. Shocked by the Bingtao win and so easily too. Although Robbo is another one not really at his best. I suppose we can't rule of Mark Selby in the tournament, who will play the winner of Allen/G.Wilson.

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35 minutes ago, Fader said:

Wouldn't say he struggled. Maflin is a man in form at the moment and there was 3 centuries and a further 4 50+ breaks in that match. Higgins struggled. Lucky for him, Bingham turns into a big ball of goo when he plays him. I still think Ronnie plays Allen in the final, but if Gary Wilson keeps it up, he could easily make the final. I don't see anybody beating Ronnie in the top half. Ding will probably lose before the match starts mentally and Wenbo will not be a match for Ronnie. Too nervous. Higgins might keep it tight, but let's face it, Higgins hasn't beaten Ronnie in England for 3 years.

Glad to see Wenbo beat Li Hang tonight. Shocked by the Bingtao win and so easily too. Although Robbo is another one not really at his best. I suppose we can't rule of Mark Selby in the tournament, who will play the winner of Allen/G.Wilson.

Yep it is a good conundrum building up.Well I thought the better player lost and that was Maflin but that is just my opinion and Allen never looked like winning till near the end.Think I would like to see Gary Wilson win the tournament even though I backed Ronnie.Good Luck

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Gary Wilson takes on Nigel Bond at 1pm. There isn't a whole lot of value in the match, but one i like is for Wilson to be leading at the interval (first 4 frames) I think Bond will come out sluggish and Gary Wilson has been on fire amongst the balls. Ding takes on Ronnie O'Sullivan at 1pm. I think Ronnie wins, but Ding did beat him in the last encounter and one I do like is Ding to beat Highest break scorer. It's abit of a risk ofcourse because Ronnie can hit centuries for fun. However, Ronnie has only hit one century in his last 2 matches and Ding got the highest break the last time they played. 2/1 is a big price and worth taking.

I'm going to takea  look at the evening matches this afternoon. Good luck.

5.5pts G.Wilson to be leading the first 4 frames 8/11 wiliam hill
3pts D.Junhui (highest break) Vs R,O'Sullivan 2/1 betfred

 

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I have no idea how Gary Wilson lost the 2nd frame. Bond needed snookers with just 2 balls on the table. Shocking. Bit unlucky with the Ding bet, 110 break was beaten by Ronnies 116 i think it was. Ronnie out. Opens it up alot.

* Wow, Wilson loses 5-2 up, 6-5. That was shocking. Nice for Allen now though, getting Bond.

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